Intelligence Squared
Episode: Fiona Hill: The World in 2026 (Part Two)
Date: March 9, 2026

Episode Overview

In this compelling follow-up live episode, Fiona Hill—former White House advisor and expert on Russia—joins journalist John Sopal at London’s Union Chapel to discuss the geopolitical realities shaping 2026. Drawing from her frontline experience in U.S. and U.K. policy circles, Hill dissects the implications of an increasingly unpredictable United States, the resurgence of authoritarian regimes, European security, and the West’s response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. She offers candid insights on defense, political leadership, citizen engagement, and the seismic changes reshaping the global order.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Europe's Security Response and the War in Ukraine

[01:46–04:31]

• Europe’s Role in Security:

  • Sopal argues Trump’s pressure has forced Europe to do more for its defense. Hill agrees, noting Europe and NATO must step up, but the main defensive edge is Ukraine itself.
  • Hill: “Who is the most formidable fighting force in Europe right now? The Ukrainians.” (02:22)
  • Ukraine is not asking others to fight for them but needs sustained military, moral, and political support.
  • Ukrainian resilience has shocked Russia and the West; their innovation in warfare—mixing WWI-style attrition with modern drones and tech—has been “phenomenal.”

• Europe Must Adapt:

  • The West underestimated both Ukraine’s tenacity and the reality of modern, hybrid warfare.
  • Ukraine crowdsources defense and harnesses tech rapidly—becoming a model for others.

2. Britain’s State of Preparedness and Defending the Homeland

[04:31–07:54]

• British Defense Posture:

  • U.K. forces were designed for expeditionary roles, not homeland defense.
  • The vulnerability of critical infrastructure and energy pipelines is a pressing concern; threats today are more likely to be drone/sabotage attacks than tanks crossing fields.
  • Hill: “We have to get into that mindset of the worst could happen, and we need to prepare ourselves along with others.” (07:49)

• Need for a National Conversation:

  • The U.K. Strategic Defence Review called for broader public engagement on new threats and greater resilience.

3. NATO, U.S. Reliability, and Transatlantic Relations

[07:54–11:06]

• America as an Ally:

  • U.S. reliability is now limited mainly to nuclear guarantees.
  • Hill: “The United States is not going to be footing the bill anymore… 80 years of, you know, basically the US underpinning security is over.” (10:06)
  • Trump communicates this bluntly, but the sentiment has deep bipartisan roots in America.

• European Cooperation—A Patchwork:

  • Different regions of Europe vary in their commitment:
    • Nordic and Eastern states take defense extremely seriously (e.g., Poland spends ~5% GDP on defense, Finns maintain compulsory service).
    • Western/Southern states less so. There’s a risk the U.K. could be left behind in investment and thinking.

4. Advice for Political Leadership (Keir Starmer Advice)

[13:35–16:40]

• Keir Starmer and Policy Action:

  • Hill: “Get a move on. It’s as simple as that.” (13:52)
  • The Strategic Defence Review needs swift implementation and direct engagement with the British public.
  • Leaders should communicate the necessity of defense investments as a form of insurance, and reach beyond London to understand and reassure citizens.

• On Trump:

  • “Don’t pander. …even if you’re trying to manage it on the surface, get on with what you have to be doing with Plan B, C, D and E. It cannot just be plan A to try to manage Trump all the time…” (16:08)

5. Russia’s Threat: Polling and Hybrid Warfare

[18:43–19:34]

• Public Perception:

  • Live polling shows 94% of the audience sees Russia as a threat (mainly via covert/hybrid attacks).
  • Hill agrees: “Russia is overstretched, which also pushes them more into the hybrid attacks…all these sabotage operations going on.” (19:24)

• Hybrid Threats:

  • Reminders of Russia’s use of extraordinary tactics (e.g., poison, polonium, covert action).
  • Hill darkly jokes: “I should never have drank that water… you can just imagine that somebody is sitting around there thinking of other horrible, nasty things.” (19:34)

Audience Q&A Highlights

1. Future of the United States

[20:47–23:40]

• Fragmentation and Federalism:
  • U.S. states increasingly act independently, even establishing their own representation abroad.
  • Hill: “You are already seeing that the United States is not a regulated body… it’s getting looser and looser. And… the more that the federal government gets eroded, the more likely you are to see this real loosening.” (23:09)

2. Is Trump an Aberration or a New Normal?

[23:40–25:51]

• Lasting Change:

  • Trump himself may be an aberration, but he has permanently damaged the presidency and central authority.
  • Hill: “It’s done permanent damage… to the kind of whole idea of a centralized government… that idea of an America with a common purpose and a common vision.” (24:00)
  • She notes a grassroots desire for renewed unity in America but underscores a fundamental uncertainty.

• (Hill jokes: “I think the presidency has been done a lot of damage by Trump. I said Putin there, but sometimes I wonder, is there a difference?” (25:49))

3. Education, Citizenship, and Media Literacy

[25:54–29:21]

• Civic Engagement:
  • Civic education and media literacy starting as early as age 13 are paramount.
  • Teachers and schools increasingly engage on these issues, but more cross-school exchange and civic involvement are crucial.
  • Hill: “It’s no good just waiting till sixth form… Start[ing] at age 13, for example, when people are really starting to form their political views, and… encourag[ing] kids to engage in that kind of conversation…” (26:14)

4. What Do Ordinary Russians Feel?

[29:29–33:25]

• Public Mood:
  • There’s some awareness and fatigue among Russians due to high casualties (over a million), especially outside major cities.
  • Many benefit economically from the war, so direct pressure on Putin to end it is limited.
  • Hill: “There’s still a lot of support for Putin… They want the war to end, but they don’t want to have any consequences for it.” (29:36)
  • Not much overt political pressure on Putin yet, though shocks to the system are always a possibility.

Notable Quotes

• “Who is the most formidable fighting force in Europe right now? The Ukrainians.”
  — Fiona Hill (02:22)
• “We have to get into that mindset of the worst could happen, and we need to prepare ourselves along with others.”
  — Fiona Hill (07:49)
• “The United States is not going to be footing the bill anymore… 80 years of…the US underpinning security is over.”
  — Fiona Hill (10:06)
• “Get a move on. It’s as simple as that.” (On advice to PM Keir Starmer)
  — Fiona Hill (13:52)
• “Don’t pander… it cannot just be plan A to try to manage Trump all the time, because he is completely and utterly unpredictable.”
  — Fiona Hill (16:08)
• “I think the presidency has been done a lot of damage by Trump. I said Putin there, but sometimes I wonder, is there a difference?”
  — Fiona Hill (25:49)
• “There’s still a lot of support for Putin… They want the war to end, but they don’t want to have any consequences for it.”
  — Fiona Hill (29:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:46] Europe’s security response and Ukraine’s resilience
• [04:31] U.K.’s defense posture and vulnerabilities
• [08:21] Is America still a reliable ally?
• [13:52] Advice for Keir Starmer and British leadership
• [16:08] How to handle Trump as an ally/adversary
• [18:43–19:34] Russia’s hybrid threats and audience poll
• [21:22] Will the United States remain united long-term?
• [23:56] Is Trumpism permanent?
• [26:14] Fixing civic education and defending truth in the social media age
• [29:36] Russian public opinion and war fatigue

Tone and Style

• Hill’s tone is frank, direct, and sometimes laced with dark humor.
• The conversation is pragmatic, focused on hard security realities and the importance of facing uncomfortable truths, while emphasizing public engagement.

Summary

This episode offers a sobering yet action-oriented analysis of the coming geopolitical era, emphasizing the need for Europe—and especially Britain—to reassess its security assumptions, invest in resilience, and foster open dialogue with informed citizens. Hill’s message is clear: the post-1945 order is over, the threats are both old (in motivation) and new (in method), and leadership demands honesty, agility, and direct engagement—both with allies and with the public.