How Did World War II Create Modern Asia? With Professor Hans van de Ven

Summary

Podcast Summary: Intelligence Squared – "How Did World War II Create Modern Asia?" with Professor Hans van de Ven
Date: July 14, 2026
Host: Hannah Lucinda Smith
Guest: Professor Hans van de Ven, Historian of Modern China, University of Cambridge

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Episode Overview

This episode challenges the traditional, Eurocentric understanding of World War II by exploring its transformative impact on Asia. Professor Hans van de Ven discusses insights from his book Blood Dawn, arguing that the Second World War was pivotal in triggering nationalist movements, ultimately shaping the foundations of modern Asian states. Through historical analysis, personal anecdotes, and vivid examples, van de Ven and host Hannah Lucinda Smith delve into issues of public memory, nationalist awakenings, shifting power dynamics, and the contingency of Asia’s postwar evolution.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

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1. Reframing WWII: Beyond a Euro-American Lens

Timestamp: 01:47 – 05:48

• Traditional Focus: Most WWII scholarship prioritizes European and American experiences, overlooking Asia’s central role.
• Asian Context: Europe and America’s post-war dominance made it “reasonable” for them to ignore Asia in the aftermath, but this is no longer viable with Asia’s rise.
• Interconnected Wars: Van de Ven emphasizes WWII as a truly global war, highlighting how leaders of the era operated with a global, not purely national, mindset:
  • "We need to know the Asian perspective on the Second World War, really, in order to understand the direction that the world is taking with Asia becoming a hugely important part of the world." — Hans van de Ven (03:14)
• Modern Urgency: Rising Asian powers demand that historians and the public reconsider the legacy and lessons of WWII from a broader perspective.

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2. Mass Politics and Nationalist Movements: The Shift from Empire (WWI) to Independence (WWII)

Timestamp: 05:48 – 09:33

• WWI Asia: Seen more as an economic opportunity within the imperial structure; movements for independence were elite-driven and rarely mass mobilizations.
• Versailles Aftermath (1919): Wilson's rhetoric of self-determination sparked mass protests and the birth of broad-based political parties in Asia; “the power of mass movement became obvious.”
• WWII Catalyst: WWII rekindled these movements, providing new opportunities for organizing and ultimately fueling the drive for independence.
• Internal Divisions: These mass movements often fractured internally (e.g., Nationalists vs. Communists in China; Muslim vs. Hindu groups in India), shaping the fault lines of today’s Asia.
• Lasting Impact: The structure and ideological splits from this period are still visible in issues like the China–Taiwan divide and the India–Pakistan conflict.

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3. Public Memory of WWII in Asia

Timestamp: 09:33 – 15:14

• China: Until the 1980s, the narrative focused on the Communist Revolution. Post-Mao, the government promoted WWII as a unifying nationalist narrative, but more recently, emphasis has returned to the revolution.
  • "During the Second World War, the Communists fought guerrilla war... It was the Nationalists of Chiang Kai Shek who really did most of the fighting. So it's a bit problematic." — Hans van de Ven (11:53)
• Indonesia: Remembering the Japanese occupation is complex due to Sukarno’s collaboration with the Japanese as a strategy for independence.
• India: There is pride in the Indian Army’s WWII contributions (not fully recognized by the Allies), but the Bengal famine remains a dominant memory. Figures like Subhas Chandra Bose, who allied with Japan, enjoy significant nationalist reverence.
  • "Their contribution was very... But it is the British Empire and especially the Bengal famine in which 3 million people died that continues to be very much uppermost in the public memory in India." — Hans van de Ven (13:05)
• Contrast with West: In Asia, WWII is an immediate precursor to independence and modern identity, while in Europe/US it’s viewed as distant history.

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4. Japan’s Imperial Ambitions and the Pearl Harbor Calculus

Timestamp: 19:46 – 24:44

• Non-intervention to Imperial Power: Until the 20th century, Japan lacked imperial ambition. The embargo on oil (especially with the Dutch joining the US embargo) forced Japan’s decision for war—showing the global interconnectedness of small and large powers.
• Netherlands’ Role: Dutch East Indies’ oil supply and Dutch embargo were critical factors leading to Pearl Harbor.
• Internal Japanese Politics: Bureaucratic inertia, fear of military coups, and uncertainty stymied opposition to the attack decision. Emperor Hirohito could have intervened, but risked his position.
• Global Context: Japan’s decision to attack was a gamble in uncertain times. Van de Ven draws parallels to contemporary world uncertainties.
  • "It's not the first time in history that otherwise very intelligent people make utterly, in hindsight, very stupid decisions." — Hans van de Ven (23:51)
• Alternative Scenarios: Had resource supply lines been secured, and US/UK not retaliated, history could have unfolded differently.

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5. Stalin’s Support for Chinese Nationalists over Communists

Timestamp: 24:44 – 29:45

• Counterintuitive Strategy: Despite ideology, Stalin backed Chiang Kai Shek’s Nationalists in WWII, prioritizing geopolitics over Communist solidarity.
  • "He is faced with the possibility of having to fight both Germany and Japan... So the best army... at the same time on fronts that are thousands of miles from each, from each other." — Hans van de Ven (25:48)
• Dual Approach: Stalin continued to support Chinese Communists in the background, hedging his bets.
• Soviet Interests: Stalin wanted a divided China—a buffer zone much like his objectives in Eastern Europe and Korea—laying groundwork for future geopolitics.
• Resulting Impact: Massive Soviet military aid allowed Nationalists to resist Japan, but Communist strength ultimately grew, leading to postwar civil war dynamics.

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6. The Contingency of Modern Asia: “What If” WWII Had Not Happened?

Timestamp: 29:45 – 35:43

• Would Asian Nations Exist as They Do Today? Van de Ven stresses the contingency and diversity of possible outcomes:
  • "I think the Asia with which we live today is the product of the Second World War... We might well have a new kind of decolonized Asia, perhaps, or the empires might have endured." — Hans van de Ven (30:08)
• Competing Futures: Alternatives included pan-Communist, more Muslim-oriented, or decentralized/federal Asian states.
• India, Indonesia, China: Each grappled with the challenges of unification, centralization, and the inclusion/exclusion of minorities—choices determined in the chaos of WWII’s aftermath.
• Agency vs. Subordination: Leaders rejected colonial “divide and rule,” pursuing national unification as a strategy for agency and standing.
• Historical Contingency: Final borders and identities (e.g., divided India, unified China, secular Indonesia) were not foreordained but hammered out in the late 1940s amid massive uncertainty.

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Notable Quotes

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• "We need to know the Asian perspective on the Second World War, really, in order to understand the direction that the world is taking with Asia becoming a hugely important part of the world."
  — Hans van de Ven (03:14)

• "These mass movements also became divided within themselves... The Taiwan China issue is there. The Pakistan India issue is there. I think that, you know, we really ought to chase back to these improvisations of organizing mass movements and deriving serious political power from them."
  — Hans van de Ven (08:32)

• "During the Second World War, the Communists fought guerrilla war... It was the Nationalists of Chiang Kai Shek who really did most of the fighting. So it's a bit problematic."
  — Hans van de Ven (11:53)

• "Had all this worked out, had they taken the Netherlands in these security supply lines, had America decided to live with it, not to respond, what would have happened? And they might as well have seen as... something successful."
  — Hans van de Ven (23:10)

• "It's not the first time in history that otherwise very intelligent people make utterly, in hindsight, very stupid decisions."
  — Hans van de Ven (23:51)

• "He does not abandon the Chinese Communists. He continues to support them, to train people in Moscow... He really wants a divided China."
  — Hans van de Ven (27:39–28:32)

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Memorable Moments

• The often-overlooked yet pivotal role of the Netherlands in triggering the Pearl Harbor attack (20:25–24:44).
• Van de Ven tracing the lineage of today’s Asian political divides (China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan) to improvisations and splits in wartime nationalist movements (06:06–09:33).
• The candid assertion that the contemporary rise of Asia can only be understood by viewing WWII as a global conflict with Asia at its heart (03:14).

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Closing Acknowledgment

• Host Hannah Lucinda Smith praises Blood Dawn as “not only highly informative, it's also highly readable” and thanks Professor van de Ven for his illuminating discussion (35:43).
• Professor van de Ven expresses gratitude and appreciation for the platform (35:53).

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Suggested Listening Points

• 01:47 – 05:48 – Rethinking WWII’s Global Scope and Asian Importance
• 06:06 – 09:33 – Mass Politics and the Birth of Independence Movements
• 09:33 – 15:14 – How WWII is Remembered in Asia vs. Europe/USA
• 20:25 – 24:44 – Pearl Harbor, Oil Embargoes, and the Netherlands’ Role
• 24:44 – 29:45 – Stalin’s Calculated Support and the Fate of China
• 29:45 – 35:43 – “What If” WWII Had Not Happened: The Contingency of Modern Asia

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This episode offers a compelling shift from the West-centric WWII narrative, arguing that the war’s legacy in Asia still fundamentally shapes global politics, identities, and disputes today.

Transcript

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[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

I'm Archmanning I'm Madison Skinner. I'm Eva Jovic.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

I'm Decoria Moore.

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Welcome to Intelligence Squared, where great minds meet. I'm senior producer Mia Sorrenti. When we think of the Second World War, why do we so often look to Europe and what if some of the conflict's most profound consequences unfolded not in the west but across Asia? On today's episode, Professor Hans Van de Ven, historian of modern China and professor of modern Chinese history at the University of Cambridge, joined Hannah Lucinda Smith to challenge a Eurocentric understanding of the Second World War and showing how the conflict laid the foundations of Asia as we know it today. Let's join our host, Hannah Lucinda Smith, now with more.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

The Second World War was, of course, a global war, but it is generally studied and understood through a European and American lens. One of its major arenas was Asia, and in his new book, Blood dawn, historian Hans Van de Ven offers a radically different interpretation, framing the war on that continent as the spark for nationalist movements that would lead to the formation of today's modern Asian state. Hans welcome to Intelligence Squared.

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

Hannah, thank you very much. And thank you so much for having me on. I'm looking forward to our discussion.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

Thank you. Well, first of all, when did you first start thinking about this approach to World War II in Asia? And why do you think that the overwhelming majority of scholarship on that war focused on The Western experience.

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

I started thinking about this book some time ago, really during Brexit, when the Second World War was a major sort of. It was a lens through which so much was seen that had to do with Britain's position in the world, Europe's position in the world, and so on, with all the, you know, all the Churchill movies and so on, on. And I've been working on China's war with Japan for many decades. And of course, I kept thinking, well, actually, the Second World War is a much more. Is a much broader theme. And we need to know the Asian perspective on the Second World War, really, in order to understand the direction that the world is taking with Asia becoming a hugely important part of the world. Let me put it this way. I think in the aftermath of the Second World War, for decades, it was quite reasonable for Europeans and Americans to sort of ignore Asia. It was populous, but it was largely agricultural and very poor. And it didn't matter geopolitically. We now live in a very, very different world. Asia is developing very quickly, has developed very quickly. China's become a superpower. Japan in many ways, is a big power. India is moving in that direction. Indonesia is moving in that direction. And unless we deal with that reemergence in some ways of Asia, I don't think we're going to understand our own times very much. So that was one reason. The other reason is, as I said, I've been working on the Second World War in China for a long time. And more and more I came to realize that, to understand that particular theme, which is a very much a very big theme in China now with rising nationalism and so on. Actually, you can't really exclude the rest of Asia. You can't exclude. You have to rethink what Japan was trying to do. It builds its empire. And so all these things are interconnected. And I think we still. It's not just British and American, the victor countries, so to speak, but also European countries, the Dutch, the French, the Germans, who still think or write about the Second World War, sort of national wars. It is France and it's the Dutch. And I think, well, actually, it is a global war. It was a global war. And we need to have a global perspective on this war in order to understand its significance and to sort of get us out of thinking about the Second World. When you see highly solidified ways where we are sort of trapped and thinking about it in certain ways. And I think so to open up that discussion, open up that debate, to think about Asia more generally and to take seriously that Japan was trying to build an empire and was actually, you know, it was not stupid in doing so. It was often very clever in doing so. So it's from that background, it's sort of the politics in Europe itself. It's the transformation in the world we. We are facing today with the rise re emergence of Asia generally. And then the sort of the more historiographical point of, well, all these wars were actually really interconnected and the makers of that were the leaders at the time thought globally. They didn't think nationally. They also thought nationally, but they had a global perspective.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

As you said there, you see World War II as this kind of major driver of nationalist movements and sentiments and eventual independence in Asia. Whereas in World War I on that continent, there was more of a kind of sense that safety was to be found within empires. What changed between those two conflicts?

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

That's a great question, and I think you're absolutely right. There's a huge difference in how people in Asia dealt with the First World War. It was an economic opportunity for Indians who joined the Indian army. So 1 million people did. So it was a job, some money. For Japan, it was an opportunity to begin to expand its empire by taking bits of China and of course, occupying the Pacific Islands for China too. For some people in China too, it was a job opportunity. 150 to 200,000 Chinese were laborers in France, but for them that still thought in terms of empire. Now, what changed, I think, in the Aftermath of the First World War is these protests that suddenly appeared in 1919, in the aftermath of Versailles, sort of when Wilson's, Woodrow Wilson's rhetoric about self determination led to mass outbreaks of protests in Korea, China, in India, in Egypt and so on. And then people began to realize, well, actually we can mobilize power from these protests on the streets. And it's in that in the wake of the First World War that you get the founding of all kinds of new parties, political parties, mass political parties. You have the emergence of mass politics. So the realization you get power from organizing the masses. And that of course, before the First World War, yes, you have movements for independence, but these were elite movements for independence. These were debating societies. And it didn't go really onto the streets. And then suddenly you had the power of mass movements becoming obvious. And I think that had a real impact on the way the independence movements that came out of the Second World War developed themselves. Because yes, people could see political organizers could see that you have this power of mass movement. Then the question is, how do you Organize that. What kinds of institutions do you develop? What party organizations? How do you develop? What kinds of slogans are you going to use? And so as they developed, improvised, almost, I think improvised, these mass movements, these mass political parties, there are also serious splits emerging within them. In the Chinese case, it's the splits between the Nationalists and Communists. In India, you have the splits between more Muslim oriented, more Hindu oriented. So these mass movements also became divided within themselves. And so that too would have an enormous impact on the world in which Asia, the world in which Asia now lives today. The Taiwan China issue is there. The Pakistan India issue is there. I think that, you know, we really ought to chase back to these improvisations of organizing mass movements and deriving serious political power from them. I think it's interesting that in the 30s, this kind of died down and empires re established their authority. But then when the war breaks out, there's sort of a new opportunity for these math movements that leaders of independence movements grab with enthusiasm and often with real insight and ability.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

Can you talk a little bit about how World War II was and is viewed by ordinary people in Asia? I know that's a sort of very wide question because of course it's a huge continent and I'm sure there's going to be differences between countries. But I think one thing that I find very interesting, you know, that the one sort of non Western perspective which is quite familiar is of course the Soviet perspective. And there the war was known as the Great Patriotic War. It's sort of seen in very different terms. It's remembered in very different terms. Different terms. Can you talk a little bit about how it is seen in the kind of popular imagination in Asia?

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

As you say, that's. I mean, I can. And. But as you say, it's a very broad question. There's a lot of diversity. But with that caveat, I think in China from until the 1980s, the Second World War didn't figure in public memory. It was the revolution that was the main Communist revolution, Mao's revolution. That was the main narrative line. Then after the Cultural Revolution, communism became sort of problematic. And so there was a switch towards a much more nationalistic nationalist remembering of the Second World War. The Second World War was used as the narrative to sort of reunify the Chinese public. And that worked very well. More recently in China, under Xi Jinping, the revolutionary story is being reactivated and the Second World War is giving less attention to the story of China. Today is the story of the Communist revolution of which the war against Japan was one part. One Reason it's public in Chinese public difficult in Chinese public memory is because during the Second World War, the Communists fought guerrilla war behind Japanese lines, which was not that significant. It was the Nationalists of Chiang Kai Shek who really did most of the fighting. So it's a bit problematic. And I think what did come out of that is the horror of the Japanese occupation of China, the famines that happened and so on. I think that those. Those themes run quite big in a big way through it in Indonesia, as far as I know, which is limited. The Second World War was a bit more problematic because Sukarna made a decision to seek independence by working with the Japanese. So that's, you know, and it was very effective, and I think the choice was understandable. So there. The remembering of the Japanese occupation is a bit more difficult. I think in India, the remembering is very much of a. An army that did fight the Japanese, very large army did fight. Fought the Japanese very successfully in Burma. There's also a feeling of not of. Of India's contributions to the victories of the Allies not being sufficiently recognized. And of course, the Indian army fought with the Allies not just in Burma, but also in the Middle east, in Italy, in North Africa and so on. So their contribution was very. But it is the British Empire and especially the Bengal famine in which 3 million people died that continues to

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[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

very much uppermost in the public memory in India. And there is this very interesting figure of Subhash Chandra Bose, who, likes Sukarno, decided that if India was going to become independent, it had to fight for it. And he worked with the Japanese to raise an army among POWs in Singapore, Burma, Malaysia and so on. And he, in fact, fought with the Japanese in 1944 in an attempt to invade India and to take it over. So. And S.B. was, was. He was tried by the British after 1945 as a traitor, of course, but that. That. That trial had to be abandoned really by the British because there was such popular support for this kind of hero of nationalism that, you know, and he. He still is seen as. As a real war hero, but it's much more diverse. And so I think these complications are much more alive in the public memories of the war are very much more alive in Asia today than I think that they are for younger generations in Europe and the United States, for whom the Second World War is very much in the past. And I think the reason for that is that the Second World War in Asia really did lead to these. Fueled the independence movements. And so the origins of the age that we have today really must be found in the Second World War. And that's just, you know, I think for our own younger generations in Europe and the United States, that's probably much less the case for, for, for them, the Second World War very much is the past and they've moved on to new new issues.

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[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

You've talked already about Japan, of course, which was the kind of big Asian protagonist in the war and of course had its own imperial ambitions. One of the passages in your book that I found really interesting was where you talk about the attack on Pearl harbor, which we of course often see as a kind of, you know, a discrete event very much from the American perspective, of course, but you frame it far more as a sort of one event in many in which Japan was trying to advance its imperial ambitions but the other really interesting thing for me is that well into the 20th century Japan actually was, it didn't have these ambitions, it was non interventionist. What changed?

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

What changed? Let me first and I thought the writing the chapter on Pearl harbor was for me one of the most interesting bits of the whole of doing a research. And I hadn't known that the role of the Netherlands in this was actually really significant. And I think it's a wonderful case of showing how a very small country, a small power can actually have a big impact on a global situation. And the reason for that was that America had been supplying all the oil that Japan needed to wage war continuing until 1941. And then the Dutch when, when the Americans embargoed these oil exports, Japan turned to the Netherlands because all the oil, including the kerosene for the airplanes was available in the Netherlands East Indies. The Dutch being traders being neutral in the Asian War, it's kind of natural for the Dutch day to trade with Japan. They had done so in the First World War. They'd been neutral and sort of neutrality. The Dutch didn't trust the British or the Americans. And so they said well this could be. So the Dutch decision to join the Americans in the embargo put Japan for this question of what do we do? Do we give in to the American demands of retreating from China or do we go big and go and then occupy the Netherlands East Indies which, and that means taking on the UK and the United States? And there was huge debate within the Japanese government of whether to do this or not. And the prime minister of the time, Konoye Kon from Yamura did in the end said well we don't really, I don't really want to do this. In the end they, they did decide to do this. And I, the question I ask is, I think is the absolutely right. Why was the system not able to prevent them from doing, which they really knew very well might be utterly disastrous for them. And I think you have to look at vested interests at bureaucracies in which go along, are afraid to stand up and sort of these mechanisms, bureaucratic mechanisms where nobody's willing to sort of really take the drastic action and say no, we are not going to do this. And I think Emperor Hirohito has a real responsibility here. He could have intervened and said no, this is not going to work. But that would have put his own position in doubt. How would the military have responded? Japan had a history of military coups. So I think that uncertainty played into this decision as well. And of Course, there's also the thought, well, had all this worked out, had they taken the Netherlands in these security supply lines, had America decided to live with it, not to respond, what would have happened? And they might as well have seen as, as this as something successful. And you know, what was the Japanese motives and if you want to take a positive view or a more optimistic view, maybe what Japan was trying to achieve was to get the negotiation table and achieve the negotiated settlement from a position of strength. What would the UK and the US faced with Germany have done? I think it's all so I can imagine a situation in which the leaders are ultimately put for a gamble and decide, well, we don't know, this might go wrong, but to retreat from China is going to be so disastrous domestically, it's going to cost us so much political capital, we better go forward. And I think that's, you know, the kind of situations that emerge in a world context when there's so much uncertainty. A situation into which I think we are merging, entering now, today. And yeah, I think you can see how people end up doing something utterly disastrous. It's not the first time in history that otherwise very intelligent people make utterly, in hindsight, very stupid decisions.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

Another section, all your book is interesting and full of surprises even for, you know, people who think they know the Second World War. But another section that I found particularly interesting was about Stalin and his decision to patronize in China the Nationalists rather than the Communists, which seems so counterintuitive and probably was a miscalculation on his part as well. When you talk about, you know, otherwise clever people doing stupid or irrational things. Can you talk a little bit about that, about his decision to back the Nationalists and how that impacted the course of the Chinese civil war?

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

Yes, it can. And it is, as you say, that is a very critical moment that he decided to go with the Nationalists. And it's not, you know, Stalin, it's unexpected because Stalin is of course Communist. He wants global revolution. He's been working towards that in the 1930s. He has been leading a popular front type governments in, in Spain. There's real support for that, including in Asia among independence fighters, independence movements. And then he decides to go with Chiang Kai Shek. And I think this is simply a strategic geopolitical calculation. He is faced with the possibility of having to fight both Germany and Japan. So the best army and one of the best navies in the world at the same time on fronts that are thousands of miles from each, from each other. That's a very difficult thing. He has Just put his own army through purges which make his own army. In the end, of course, they do very, very well indeed. But who could have expected that? And then you have the emergence in China of the Nationalists who have unified China kind of in the late 1920s and from 1931, 1932 are building up and new army really are consolidating their control. They have driven the Chinese Communist of Mao Zedong from their Central China base areas, their Soviets into the margins of the northwest where they will wither away. And so I think his calculation is simply straightforward. I need something to contain the Japanese. The Nationalists are the best option and of course, Chiang Kai Shek's. The messages between Chiang Kai Shek and Stalin are interesting because Stalin wants Chiang Kai Shek to fight the Japanese. Chiang Kai Shek wants Stalin to fight the Japanese because he's a much better army. And so that tug of war between the two is interesting. Stalin, in the end, he secures decision to take on the Japanese by supplying vast amounts of weapons, including, you know, 1,000 planes and pilots and so on, which enable the Chinese resistance to Japan. I think without that, Chiang Kai Shek would have been swiped off the board much more, more quickly. It's also an interesting fact that this army that Chiang Kai Shek uses to fight the Japanese is trained and partly armed by the Germans who also make certain calculations about this. And it's Hitler who decides not to discontinue his support for Chiang Kai Shek. And then, you know, comes to terms in the end with Stalin. Now, for Stalin, I think he is strategically extremely clever. He does not abandon the Chinese Communists. He continues to support them, to train people in Moscow. He gives Maltitone not just symbolic support, but also helps them in other ways. And his calculation and that support strengthens after 1941, 1942. And I think his calculation really is that it is in his best interest to end up with the divided China in the same. And that creates this region of securities, these frontiers around the Soviet Union that's ensure the Soviet Union's safety. He does this in Eastern Europe. He of course does this in Korea. It's one of the reasons we end up with divided Korea. And he clearly tried to do so in 1945 after the Japanese surrender in China as well, when, yes, he has a treaty with Chiang Kai Shek. Yes, he says the Chiang Kai government is the different government of China at the same time that he supplies vast amounts of weapons to the Chinese, Chinese Communists. So I think he really wants a divided China. So I Think from his perspective this. He is. He is, and we still have divided China. He is strategically very, very clever. Yeah.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

Just finally, if World War II had not happened, do you think that these independent nationalist movements in Asia could have formed or would it have been in a different form? Would we have the modern Asia that we have today?

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

Again, that's a great sort of what if question. And any what if question, you know, the answer is always, well, the future is hard enough to predict as it is now. Talk about this with some alternative futures. And I think these movements that took root in the 1920s, let me put it this way. I think the Asia with which we live today is the product of the Second World War. I hope to bring across in the book that these outcomes were contingent on so many different developments. We might well have a new kind of decolonized Asia, perhaps, or the empires might have endured. But I think it's in looking at India, Indonesia and China, it's very interesting that each of them is a large unified country and each of them struggled very hard in the context of the Second World War to achieve that. There was a real commitment to becoming big countries. And that I always thought is not necessarily the obvious choice for places like China or India or Indonesia. Fragmented or decentralized politics would have made enormous sense. That did not happen, as I say, because they decided that the divide and control strategies of the European powers was not something they wanted to. They believed that kept them subordinate and they wanted to recover their agency. But I think other possibilities in play at the time was one of an Asia that would have gone completely communist. There was support for that certainly in Indonesia, certainly in Vietnam, maybe not in India, or a much more Muslim oriented Asia might have emerged. Indonesia could have become a Muslim country and it was kind of Sukarno being cleverly manipulated the Muslims at a time of surrender. That meant that that option that he initially had agreed to did not happen. I think within China you had lots of debates about communist, liberal, do we want Confucian? You know, what is it? The kind of China we want to be. In India you have, of course, the great debates between Muslims and Hindus themselves. But then you have people speaking up like Ambedkar for the Dalits. They wanted a much greater position within the left because all issue of the Sikhs have done so much both to protect the empire, but also to then became sort of the great advanced forces of independence. So I think precisely what kind of Asia we were going to have is not obvious until very late in the day. It's not obvious at the time of the Japanese surrender. And it's not obvious really, I think, until we have the great battles between 1946 in 1949, when these decisions about so what kind of future are we going to have were fought on the battlefield. On the whole, the civil war in China is won, the war between the Dutch and the various forces that we're fighting for Indonesian independence, ranging from the Muslims to the seculars to yet other possibilities. And of course, in India, it's between it ultimately be. It's a division between Jinnah and Nehru, who wants separate Pakistan, but Iniru wants a unified India. And it seems that in the end they exhausted themselves into negotiations to such an extent that they all gave up and said, okay, well, in that case, we can't think of anything better, but we will go for a divided, divided India. And I think that was not at all obvious until 1947, that that was the only possible outcome at all. So it's the contingency, the multiplicity of futures that remained in play until very late in the day that I find so striking of this history. So, yes, you have powerful independence movements and maybe they would have of commemorial, and maybe, you know, Europeans would have turned against the empire themselves. But it's the precise outcomes that are interesting. I think there's one other one that I should mention, which is Sudan. Shahriya's vision, which he articulated, which had real traction before the outbreak of the semitone, he continued to think of social democrats as a global movement. Not sure he would have opposed at all if you would have continued Dutch kingdom in which social democrats or democrats were in control in Indonesia and in the Netherlands. And it's, you know, they could have found a new future through some kind of constitutional framework in which, of course, there's a great deal of independence. There's still some connection between the two. And so. And I think that actually is a very interesting option that remained in play until quite right. I mean, he continued to stand for some kind of set of unities between Europe and Asia. And of course they were raptured. So, yeah, I think these outcomes are just wonderfully interesting. And we can write lots of different what if versions, which might be an interesting exercise.

[Hannah Lucinda Smith]

Well, Blood dawn is not only highly informative, it's also highly readable. I really enjoyed it. Thank you for writing it and thank you for joining us on Intelligence Squared. Hans van der Ben.

[Professor Hans Van de Ven]

Okay, thank you very much. Thank you very much indeed.

[Mia Sorrenti]

Thanks for listening to Intelligence Squared. This episode was produced by me, Mia Sorrenti. And it was edited by Mark Roberts. For ad free episodes and full length recordings. You can become a [e-mail] membership. If you'd like to join us at future future Live events, you can find our full program or buy tickets [e-mail] attend. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining us.

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