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- [00:01]
A
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- [01:51]
C
now with more Somaya Keanes and Chad Bowne. Welcome to Intelligence Squared. So your book, how to win a Trade. Well, clearly very timely. What was it that inspired you to write this book? Did it come about when Donald Trump launched his Liberation Day just over a year ago, or was it something that had been brewing before that?
- [02:12]
B
Yeah. So Chad and I had been working together for years during the first Trump administration. Right. So we were this kind of trade team. And back then, I think we had the idea for a book of kind of, you know, the history of trade wars, you know, one chapter per trade war. And then frankly, you know, Trump lost the election, trade became a bit boring again. And, you know, we weren't really sure that there was demand for the book that we wanted to write. And so, you know, life moved on. I actually stopped covering trade for a little bit, and then in 2025, I actually had a baby. So I essentially wasn't, you know, I had a pause from my day job, and President Trump had won again. Tariffs were very much back in the news. Trade wars were the hot topic. And when we reached out to some folks asking, do you think people might be interested in this? Maybe the agents were like, yep, could you file this yesterday? We want this right now. Because, you know, the point of the book is that we're trying to write this guide to what's happening now, right? Because, you know, the headlines are kind of bewildering, confusing, but, you know, every single tariff fight has such, you know, such an important context and background. And these aren't things that just suddenly jumped up with Trump. These are conflicts that predated him and will also be around for a long time after he leaves.
- [03:43]
C
Chad, is there anything that you'd like to add to that?
- [03:45]
D
No, except I agree. We started thinking about the book, actually, before Liberation Day, back in January, I think, of last year. I had been in government. I was the chief economist at the State Department in the Biden administration. And a lot of the things that we work through in the book was part of my everyday job of trying to figure out how to navigate in this very, very new world that we now find ourselves in. So we were expecting early on in 2025 to be working on what we thought would be an exciting book project. It just so happened to turn out that President Trump's actions made it an even more exciting book project than we had anticipated.
- [04:29]
C
And as you referenced Ursa Meyer, you really approached this kind of highly technical subject in a very, very accessible and fun way. It's a fun read for a general audience. Why did you decide to do that, and how challenging was it to really take this subject and make it that accessible?
- [04:49]
B
Yeah, so I happen to think that there aren't enough economics books with jokes in them. And so I was trying to fix that problem one joke at a time. And, you know, I think the other challenge sometimes with tricky economics topics is that, you know, economists have a language that they use amongst themselves, you know, models, algebra, that kind of thing. And so what I was trying to do was to bring was to sort of translate that into normal speak by using stories and analogies and historical examples to bring these things to life. Right. And so just to take an example, there's a chapter where we talk about the players in trade wars.
- [05:33]
D
Right.
- [05:33]
B
We introduce you to the Players. And each of the players is a ship, right? And, you know, you have the American ship. There used to be this navy fleet patrolling the seas, making sure that everyone played by the rules. And then there was a mutiny or they got overtaken by a pirate ship, right? And so now the Americans are, you know, blasting their cannons at anyone who moves in the way that they don't like. You know, they're not trying to enforce the rules. They're out for themselves. And then you've got, you know, the Chinese are this great big warship. The Europeans are this slow moving merchant ship. They just want to sell stuff. They don't really like all this conflict. You've got the Brits of this kind of awkward dinghy that used to be attached to the European ship and are now kind of floating by the side, not really sure what's going on. And so the point of that chapter was to show, first of all, just how chaotic all of this seems. There's another point which is to show the problem of collective action. So when Trump applied his tariffs, one of the major points of criticism was that he had alienated his allies. There was this big challenge, a real challenge of China, and instead of actually working with allies to tackle that shared challenge, he just blasted them all out of the water. And the point of that chapter is to say that actually all of those allies are impossible to coordinate. They're all sailing in their own directions. They're facing down the Chinese warship. None of them really have strong incentives to cooperate. And so, yeah, we can criticize the pirate ship for pointing its cannons at everyone, and that's a reasonable criticism. But actually, the allies, all the other boats, deserve a bit more criticism for failing to coordinate amongst themselves. And so, yeah, I mean, my hope is that the stories and the jokes bring it to life and make it a little bit easier to read than your average economics book, which is a bit more like eating celery than a nice piece of cake. And thank you. Thank you so much for appreciating that about it.
- [07:52]
D
I would only say, yeah, the other thing that we try to do in this book is to bring readers on a journey. So we want readers to be very engaged, imagining that they're sort of desperate to wage a trade war. They really want to do this, and Sumayya and I are their reluctant guides. But what we have done is a lot of the hard work that they don't have to go out and do it. We've read all the economics papers, we've talked to all of the experts, and we Try to distill that down in hopefully an interesting and fun way to make it enjoyable. As the reader goes through this journey themselves and trying to figure out, do I actually want to fight a trade war? And if I do, what do I have to do to win?
- [08:42]
C
That's one of the things that I really like in the book, is that you devote quite a large section of it to the things that we can do as individuals to kind of protect ourselves or to even fight back against these trade wars. I mean, often, you know, when you're sitting there watching the news and watching Donald Trump making his statements, you know, you feel very powerless as an individual, but you argue that there are things that we can do. Can you talk us through some of those things?
- [09:07]
A
Yeah.
- [09:07]
B
So I think, you know, one of the big challenges, the real challenges in the global trading system today is that, you know, we're not just in a world where we can, you know, turn our brains off, follow the rules, try and make ourselves richer. Essentially we've got geopolitics that's infused our trading system. And so one of the things that we can do is recognize where the real structural problems are and prepare ourselves for the medium term changes that are going to happen. Say in the US You've got, you've got small businesses deciding where do we buy stuff from? And right now China is just incredibly effective. It's very, very good at manufacturing stuff. It's very, very cheap supply. It's also got really moved up the value chain. You can get incredible high tech products from China, great quality. And if you look at the kind of tariff mess that we've got under President Trump, China has been hit harder than other countries and Chad's been crunching all the numbers on that, but the signal isn't quite as clear as it could be. Right. And so one thing that I think that if you're a small business importing, then I think in the medium term I don't think it's going to be sustainable to source everything from China in the way that it's just been the default for quite some time. So step one, educate yourself, understand these structural forces, the things that aren't going away. I think in the US one of the big challenges has been that no one trusts the Trump administration to stick by what it says it's going to do. One of the only constraints that has proven effective has been the rule of law. And it's actually been incredible that you've seen a small business importing toys tape, take the Trump administration to court and win and strike down those tariffs which that first round of tariffs applied after Liberation Day, which weren't on solid legal footing. So you've got these incredible cases of individuals fighting the powerful and actually winning in some cases.
- [11:36]
D
I think the only thing I would add to that is because the book is global, inevitably because President Trump is such a dominant personality, we end up having to. And really kind of unclear too. We spend a lot of our time trying to explain what he's really doing and what's really happening. But the book really is a global perspective on this or tries to provide a global perspective on this. And why I think that's important, especially in Europe, for example, is when you looked at what happened after the first Trump administration between 2017 and 2020, right. They really did set the United States down this path of really trying operate differently, both in the trading system and with respect to China. And I think Europe, especially at that moment, didn't understand yet, was this a new thing, was this a permanent thing? Or was this a one off blip in just the President Trump thing? And that the next folks that would come around, it would go back to the way the world was before. And the way the world was before was a rules based world. It was really, you just opened up a manual and you could figure out what to do. You just kind of turn your brain off. Right. And with the Biden administration, it took, I think, Europe and others a while to understand, oh, you know, we're not going to go back to the way things were before. Well, what do we need to do differently? And they were kind of slow to respond. So part of the point of this book is to do exactly what Sima said to say, identify the parts that are structural. Right. That this is not going to go back to the way things, you know, were before. And so therefore, everybody needs to understand how to act, behave, react differently in this new climate. And what we do in the book is hopefully in an interesting and fun way, make people smarter and try to arm them with both the information and some of the expertise they need to understand and to be able to process a little bit differently what it is that's taking place and what it is that's absolutely not going to go away, even if and when President Trump decides to leave the US Presidency.
- [13:45]
B
Can I just add one thing to that, which is, I suppose in a UK setting, you know, one of the big challenges. Well, not just the uk, you know, around the world, right. Affordability, the cost of living is a huge, huge challenge for people. And in a sense, you know, One of the messages from our book is that there are some products that right now are too cheap. Right. And so that's a, that's a difficult message to, to absorb, particularly when, you know, you're struggling with rising prices. And so part of it, part of one thing we're trying to do is sort of get people ready for this idea that there are trade offs here. Right. And in the short run, it could be that, yes, some things may need to get more expensive, but in the long run that may make us safer and it may protect us from shortages in the medium term.
- [14:40]
C
Yeah, I think that's one point that you make very, very clearly and very well in the book, is that this is not just about trade. It's also link to national security as well, particularly when we look at, as you say, you know, this era that we've been living through really since the sort of turn of the millennium of getting very, very used to being able to just click on a button and get something delivered extremely cheaply from the other side of the world. Do you think? I mean, you've alluded to this already, but do you think that era is over?
- [15:13]
B
So I think one thing we're trying to do is to say that we can't blindly accept that world anymore, but we also want to be careful about going too far in the other direction, because a world in which we've got trade barriers against everyone, inefficiency, that's not great either. There were advantages to the old system. It is good that we can get cheap stuff. So it's not about a wholesale rejection of that world. You know, how can we protect ourselves in a world that keeps as open as we can be? Right. So how can we work with partners, could say the UK work with the eu, to make sure that we're using trade barriers to solve the real problem and not go too far and start erecting trade barriers with each other. And I think with the US it's probably just going to be a case for waiting until this Trump administration is over and seeing what's, what's possible there.
- [16:14]
C
Do you think there ever was a kind of golden era of free trade or is that a sort of mirage?
- [16:20]
D
I absolutely do. And I think part of the challenge, and even for Samaya and I was, you know, we lived through that golden era and it was so good when countries were getting along and there was this rules based system and trade flowed freely and you could just let you know the economic activity end up where it was really efficient. And that gave us access to really really low priced stuff. That was amazing. We loved it. The challenge was the world changed. And I think it is important to understand how the world changed. I think today a lot of the world thinks the world changed because of President Trump, because President Trump is there in the headlines every single day. But really, President Trump isn't why the world changed. The world changed really because of China and its incredible success, right, over the last 20, 30 years of going from, you know, being essentially a closed economy in the 1970s to becoming much more integrated with the world opening up, but doing so in a way that was very, very different from how all of the rest of us operate our own economies. Right? They have a lot of subsidies, they have a lot of companies that are owned by the government, and their system just functions differently from ours. And at this stage, they have become so big in terms of how much they buy and sell to and from the world that you can't ignore that anymore and you can't ignore the challenges that their economic system imposes on the rest of us. And that is really the trade war that we should be fighting today. Now, you don't have to fight it in a belligerent sense. You don't have to fight it in a. You certainly don't need to be fighting that same trade war with China and be fighting a trade war with your friends and allies at the same time. And that's, I think, what we try to point out in the book as well. But China does pose challenges. And some of that is because in addition to China's economic rise, it does seem to have a different, not only political system from ours in the west, but also a different take on foreign policy and interdependence. And it's a country that really doesn't like to, for all of its rhetoric, really doesn't want to be reliant and interdependent with the United States in the UK and the rest of Europe. It wants our economies to be reliant on it, but for it not to be reliant on anybody else so that it can have its way out there in the world a little bit more than it has in the past. And really that poses challenges. And that's the sort of major change. The major shift that I think we wanted to highlight in the book and have everybody recognize is really the underlying reason behind why at least one particular trade war that's being fought right now does need to be fought well and fought differently than how we're currently fighting it.
- [19:14]
B
I just want to add a bit of nuance to that. Right. Which is that obviously the trading system that we had before Trump and China came along wasn't perfect. Right. We shouldn't kind of. It delivered many, many benefits. There were also losers. There were obviously cases where those losers were not protected sufficiently. There's some really interesting evidence looking at, everyone knows there's a set of papers called the China Shock papers which looked at how communities were hurt when there was this sudden influx of Chinese imports. And there have been some efforts to look at other countries. So the uk there's actually a similar study that finds that there were also long term economic costs to the communities. Interestingly, in Europe, it seems that there is some evidence showing that where the social safety net was stronger, actually there was a smaller turn towards populist parties to a big influx of imports. So point one, obviously there were losers from that big trade liberalization episode. And then of course, that Navy fleet I mentioned earlier, they were writing the rules for their advantage. You know, it wasn't like a kumbaya, let everyone be on equal terms here. You know, there was. Power was an input into that system. The real feature of that system was that when a dispute arose, there was supposed to be a legalistic boring process available to sort out those disagreements in a dull way that no one really cared about. And that stopped disagreements from blowing up. And so that's the thing that we don't have anymore because it, it broke.
- [21:00]
C
So the era of free trade is over. Is this era of trade wars a new normal? Or do you think this is a kind of transitional period which is going to steady itself out and we'll move into something different?
- [21:17]
B
So I think that, I think that economic conflict, trade wars are here to stay for a good long while. You know, I think under the old system you essentially had, you know, it was underpinned by the Americans willing to throw their weight around to keep things calm at least. Right. And stable. Now if you were on the sharp end of that, again, it wasn't very pleasant, but you know, things weren't blowing up as regularly. You know, now we're no longer in a world in which there's an obvious dominant power. Right? And so, so, you know, the theory is that when you've got kind of more equal powers struggling for supremacy, that's a much more unstable world. Now the trillion dollar question is how long these trade fights are going to last. And this is really interesting because, so just to get specific, one of the weapons that these players have been throwing around is export restrictions, right? So the Chinese are saying we won't sell you our rare earths unless you behave in a certain way. And the Americans are saying, we won't sell you chip technology. And the rest of the world is being caught up in those battles, right? British manufacturers, European manufacturers have been caught up in those restrictions. And the line you sometimes hear about those weapons is that they're one shot weapons. So the moment at which you apply one of these weapons, the moment at which you restrict rare earths, for example, you basically force everyone else to find an alternative, right? Before it wasn't urgent, but now it is. And in a sense that could be comforting, right? It could suggest that like, okay, well you know, the Chinese, they've restricted their rare earths, but now that's shown us that we need to get other supplies. And so we'll just fix that in a year or two and everything will go back to normal. But you know, one thing we do in the book is really look at the history of that. And I think it suggests, suggests that these fights, these tussles can last for a really long time. If you go back to the end of the 19th century, Britain was dominant in telegraph cables. But the very same factors that gave it its dominance in telegraph cables were the same factors that made it really hard for another government to build its own rival network. And so yes, those other governments, they tried to innovate their way around the problem. They tried everything they could. But the Brits could also move too, right? They looked at the innovation, they adopted it. They also worked with their partners to push back against their rivals, trying to build these alternative networks. And all of those things are exactly what you see today. So again, trying to use these stories to explain how lasting these conflicts might be, right? It's all very well saying, oh great, we'll just, you know, get, we'll diversify away from these dominant suppliers and then no one will be able to, you know, push us around. But actually the reality, the history suggests that, that these tussles could last for a really long time.
- [24:26]
D
Maybe to give readers hope, we do conclude the book by painting some future scenarios of where we all may end up from this, you know, say in 2050. Right. And what it would take to actually, you know, again, that, that seems like it's a, is a long way off and for, for, for me it's probably longer or it's closer than, than, than for others. But what I think we do is to say, look, this is what it would take to actually get the world to settle down and to have some more stable system. We know China is not going to change. You know, we know the United States is not going to change. Maybe we'll have some changes in Europe and in the UK around the margins. So what would a more stable outcome ultimately look like? You know, if cool, if and when cooler heads prevail and we get some form of cooperation between these major players, what would have to change in order for us to get that sort of cooperation in place? So I think, you know, what we do try to do is, is to leave readers with a note of optimism, of, you know, how to potentially see the pathway through the morass that we are currently dealing with today to maybe leave everybody in a better place.
- [25:44]
B
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- [28:05]
C
Looking into your crystal balls. I mean, clearly over the past couple of decades, China has been the major winner of this kind of era of free trade that we live by through who do you think are set to be the major winners and losers in this new era of trade wars?
- [28:23]
B
So okay, there's different levels that you could answer that question at. So you know, really big picture, you know, if, if we're in a world of trade wars, if we're in a world which is more zero sum, then, you know, the winners are at the level of a country. There's a scenario in which China could essentially divide its trading partners. We saw after Trump's Liberation Day how, how terrible they were at coord China will manage to divide and conquer, essentially make sort of establish, maintain its dominance in manufacturing, will essentially have veto power, blocking power over anything another government might try to do. So if you think of the metric of winning a trade war as you have autonomy, no one else gets to boss you around, in that case, maybe it's China. There is an alternative scenario in which western economies manage to band together, potentially protect their own economic model, maybe adopt, you know, try to try to preserve the old system as much as they can amongst themselves. Maybe we manage to hold on to some of the good things about the old system in a way that has healthy competition essentially, you know, or we might just all collapse into a massive of tit for tat tariff wars. And then, you know, maybe from that mess, then, you know, maybe if things get so bad, there'll be some, some reckoning and some incentive for everyone to come together and do that mutually beneficial deal. I think that's at the level of a country though. Right. And so the question is at a lower level. Right. I'm thinking about companies and individuals. I guess I worry that it's going to be the big businesses who are most able to reorient their supply chains to this new era and the smaller businesses will be be ones who will just find it much harder to cope and set up those alternatives. But you know, I think the more we're able to sustain again that healthy competition, perhaps those, you know, creating possibilities and opportunities for those smaller businesses to diversify. Hopefully that won't make that difference as extreme.
- [30:34]
D
Just going back to the, I agree completely with what Simaya said was going back to the country level. It is going to be difficult for smaller countries in this new world and a power based world that's not based on rules. What do they do? Prime Minister Mark Carney gave this very famous speech in Davos in January laying out aspirations of what the middle powers, kind of the smaller economies could strive toward. But it's just going to be incredibly difficult to pull off, right. Every, every time you're trying to engage with others in trade, there's trade offs, there's, you know, winners and losers even when you're doing it a bunch a group of smaller economies. So it's just going to be hard. But I, I guess, you know, where we would leave this is everybody needs to understand that the, the task that is ahead of us right now, it's not going away. It's, it's something that we all have to engage in and we have to realize the costs associated benefits of diversifying, of finding alternative suppliers when there are these choke points that you're worried about. But we can't deny it. This is the new reality. And so we've got to engage, we've got to saddle up and sort of do the best that we can.
- [31:55]
C
Just finally moving away from the subjects of trade and to the subject of co writing a book. I'm very, very interested in the process of how you did that because you've managed to produce this book which has a very cohesive and very distinctive choice even though it's co authored. Can you talk a little bit about how you approach that? And were there any kind of author wars between the two of you about which direction or which style you're going to take?
- [32:19]
D
So let me start and then let Zamayya fill in the gaps. So in economics and especially this is a principle of international trade, there's a difference between comparative advantage and absolute advantage. Right? So absolute advantage is, you know, just can you do more of this than me? And it turns out that when you compare or when you, Samayya and I, she has an absolute advantage over Chad in everything. She can research better, she can analyze economics better, she can write better, she can storytell better. So then the big question is, okay, well you know, in a comparative advantage sense then there still has to be a role for trip for Chad to engage in this process. And luckily that's what international trade teaches us. Right? So that's what we in our process figured out. You know, how could Chad do something like this and still be a, you know, a value added contributor to this process? But that being said of the two of us, Samaya is the Writer, the storyteller. And so as folks read this book, I think there may be one or two jokes in there that were mine. If. If you see those and didn't laugh at them, then, yes, those were mined. But the ones that you actually laughed at and you enjoyed reading, those were Samea's.
- [33:35]
B
And I paid Chad only a modest amount of money to say all those nice things. So that's good. Yeah. So authorial disagreements. So Chad and I argued a lot over the course of writing the book, and I thought it was really important that we actually incorporated those debates in there. Right. And so sometimes they are there, right? So we had this huge fight over whether it was okay for the US to ban electric vehicles imported from China. Because I was saying, well, you know, why can't we have some kind of technocratic solution to that? Why don't we just test whether the electric vehicles are dangerous, Right? And if we're going to ban electric vehicles, where do we stop? Right. I mean, I thought last time I checked, smartphones were potentially important for, you know, surveilling and information sharing. So why are we, okay, importing those from China? His response was about the security concerns, surveillance, that kind of thing. So I thought it was important to include those disagreements there. I think that Chad had recently been in government, right. And I think, you know, obviously he couldn't spill all the government secrets that he learned when he was in government, but it was really great to have the kind of guardrail of like, no, no, this is the important issue. This is what folks are worried about internationally, right? These are the kind of structural issues. There were some moments when the Chinese, essentially, the way they're behaving is not some kind of cartoonish quest for world domination, right. They've basically got domestic economic problems and they're trying to export their way out of those. Right? And so, you know, this is. What's going on now is ultimately a symptom of Chinese weakness. And there are right now, and, you know, we talk about this in the book. There are some efforts from the Chinese government to curtail that. Those, you know, the, the excesses in the. In the Chinese system. And, you know, when I saw Those occasionally, I'd WhatsApp Chad and be like, are they going to fix it? Are they going to fix it before we write the book? Like, I'm going to be so annoyed if the Chinese sort this out between, you know, the. However many months between when we file the book and when the book is published. And Chad was like, don't worry, they're not going to fix it. It'll be fine. I mean, it'll be bad for the global economy, but for the very narrow perspective of the book, it'll be fine. And he was correct.
- [35:59]
C
Well, you clearly found ways, through your disagreements, ways to reconcile and compromise that perhaps some world leaders could learn from. You produced a brilliant book. It's very, very readable. Congratulations on it. Again, Samir Keynes and Chad Bound. Thank you for joining Intelligence Squared.
- [36:16]
B
Thanks so much for having us.
- [36:17]
D
Thanks for having us.
- [36:19]
B
Thanks for listening to Intelligence Squared. This episode was produced by me, Mia Sorrenti and it was edited by Mark Roberts for ad free episodes and full length recordings. You can become a member@intelligencesquared.com membership and if you'd like to join us at any future live events, you can find our full program or buy tickets over@intelligencesquared.com attend. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining us.
- [36:58]
D
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