Podcast Summary: Intelligence Squared – The 12 Books of Christmas

"The Dictators Who Want to Run the World," with Anne Applebaum

Episode Date: December 16, 2024

Overview:

Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Anne Applebaum joins broadcaster Johnny Diamond to discuss her latest book, Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World. The conversation explores the emergence of a global network of autocracies, how modern dictatorships collaborate despite divergent ideologies, and the impact of this network on democracy worldwide. Throughout, Applebaum reflects on the fragility of democratic systems, the powerful appeal of autocratic populism, and what citizens of democracies can do to fight back.

1. The Main Idea Behind "Autocracy, Inc."

[05:11] Anne Applebaum:

• Introduces the book’s premise: Autocracy, Inc. describes a network (not an alliance or axis) of autocratic governments—China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, etc.—that cooperate pragmatically, not by ideology but by shared interests.
• These regimes resist checks and balances, transparency, and the rule of law. They oppose democracy and target its advocates both at home and abroad.
• Quote: "They don't necessarily have the same goal, but they have the same enemy, and the enemy is us. You, pretty much everybody in this room, people who live in the democratic world." [07:19]

2. What Makes 21st Century Autocracies Different

• Networked, not Ideological: Unlike 20th-century dictatorships, today’s autocracies form transactional, ideologically dissimilar alliances.
• Tech-Enabled: They have access to immense wealth and new technologies: global financial systems, propaganda methods, and sophisticated surveillance.
• Mutual Support: Autocrats prop each other up—Venezuela as a key example (with Russian weapons, Chinese investment, Cuban secret police, Iranian alliance for sanctions evasion).
  • Quote: "Autocracy Inc. has kept Venezuela going. It's probably kept Belarus going…you could point to some other weaker autocracies who've been buoyed by this network." [10:54]

3. The Fragility of Democracy

• Democracy Is Not Inevitable: Applebaum dispels the myth that democracies last forever, invoking both U.S. founding fears and post-Cold War complacency.
  • Quote: "There's no such thing as a political system that's guaranteed to last forever... There's no curve of historical inevitability. Everything that happens tomorrow depends on what people do today." [11:48]
• The Post-1990s Illusion: The idea that democratization was historically inevitable, supported by Fukuyama’s "End of History," led to dangerous civic disengagement.
  • Quote: "If we're always going to be a democracy... then you can get on with life ...you don't have to worry about politics." [15:15]

4. Trade, Wealth, and the Corruption of Democracy

• Economic Integration’s Broken Promise: The West believed trade would democratize autocracies (e.g., Russia, China). Instead, trade enriched autocrats—Western banks enabled money laundering, and “dirty money” fueled kleptocracies.
  • "We allowed the existence of anonymous companies and anonymously purchased properties... We can de. Create them... they are creations of the law and of, and of, you know, of our own customs. And so we can de-create them." [23:26]
• Gas Pipelines: The tangled moral and political implications of Europe’s dependency on Russian energy.
  • "On the one hand, at that time, the Soviet Union was locking up dissidents, sponsoring terrorist movements in Europe... And at the same time... countries who benefited from the pipelines were effectively supporting the Soviet state." [20:08]

5. Propaganda, Technology, and "The Narrative"

• Information as a Battleground: Autocracies excel at narrative manipulation—using both state and digital media to undermine democracy at home and abroad.
  • "They've told us... particularly China and Russia... the need to defeat what they see as the ideas coming from our part of the world... number one is Western Constitutional democracy." [28:56]
  • Russia’s propaganda depicts European democracies as dangerous and degenerate to scare populations.
• Social Media’s Double-Edged Sword:
  • Democracies have been slow to regulate platforms due to free speech traditions and the initial belief that online spaces were different from traditional publishers.
  • "The Internet platforms, when they began, sold us on the idea that they aren't publishers... they do produce algorithms. And there are technologically ways in which... you could make the algorithms more opaque... There are ways to regulate that..." [37:45]

6. Is Democracy Losing?

• Hope vs. Pessimism:
  • Applebaum dedicates her book "to the optimists," and while acknowledging autocracies have made gains, she does not see an inevitable defeat for democracy.
  • "I don't think it's a contest that's going to end... It's not like something will happen next year and we'll know who's won and who's lost... nor is it binary." [41:58]

7. Populism and Human Nature

• Allure of Populist Autocracy:
  • Throughout history, people often prefer stability in times of change, and autocrats exploit nostalgia and fear of social change.
  • "Most of human history, most people have lived in what we would call autocracies... Particularly at times when there's a lot of political change... You naturally have a lot of people who are nostalgic, who want something more stable..." [44:14]

8. Civic Engagement & The Defense of Democracy

• Vigilance and Participation:
  • Successful democracies require ongoing civic activity, not disengagement.
  • "That's what, that's, you know, when democracy succeeds, it's because people are involved and people are engaged. I mean, there's a reason why the dictatorships, the autocracies that I describe in this book, why they seek to repress civic engagement." [48:03]
• Disengagement is Dangerous:
  • "The threat to democracy comes when people become disengaged, when they don't care, when they say, not my problem. Let other people decide." [50:10]

9. Audience Questions & Key Responses

On Moderate Conservatives and "Othering"

[51:51] Audience Q: Are moderate conservatives partly responsible for undermining democracy by allowing "othering" and divisive rhetoric?
[55:46] Applebaum:

• "Othering" is a classic tactic for autocratic populists, used to claim legitimacy and justify anti-democratic changes.
• While present in politics generally, it's not unique to moderate conservatives—it's a strategy wielded by illiberal forces.

On the Iraq War and US Democracy

[56:03] Applebaum:

• Contrary to popular memory, the Iraq War was initially popular and the US is a representative rather than direct democracy.
• The system is not broken by leaders making unpopular (in retrospect) decisions; that's how such democracies function.

Sino-American and Sino-Venezuelan Relations

[57:46] Applebaum:

• The US–China relationship is deeply intertwined. While decoupling is unrealistic, the West is beginning to think strategically about overdependence on China.

Who Will Win the US Election?

[58:10] Applebaum:

• Predicts Kamala Harris will likely win the popular vote, but key swing states will decide the election and it's highly unpredictable, especially with many new voters.

Oligarchs Escaping Sanctions

[60:19] Audience Q: Should sanctions encourage oligarchs to defect from repressive regimes?
[61:38] Applebaum:

• Current sanctions are too inflexible; more nuanced, incentive-based policies could encourage defections.

Why Did Integration Work in Central Europe and Not Russia/China?

[61:07] Audience Q: Why did economic liberalization spread democracy in some places but not in Russia/China?
[61:38] Applebaum:

• In Poland, elites actively wanted integration and democratization; in Russia/China, ruling elites never did. Effective transformation requires will and consensus on both sides.

US Election Outcomes: Trump vs. Harris

[61:26] Audience Q: What would be the difference under a Trump or Harris presidency?
[63:39] Applebaum:

• Trump does not see himself as a leader of the democratic alliance and is personally motivated, more likely to make deals with autocrats.
• Harris would likely focus more on rule of law and international cooperation against kleptocracy.

Notable Quotes

• "They don't necessarily have the same goal, but they have the same enemy, and the enemy is us." [07:18]
• "There's no such thing as a political system that's guaranteed to last forever... There's no curve of historical inevitability." [11:48]
• "Othering... is a classic tactic used by autocratic populists... who want to end, you know, or undermine democracy." [55:46]
• "There's nothing inevitable about liberal democracy. And assuming that it's inevitable is when we begin to make mistakes." [46:14]
• "The threat to democracy comes when people become disengaged, when they don't care, when they say, not my problem. Let other people decide." [50:10]

Final Takeaways

• Democracy is vulnerable—its survival relies on collective vigilance and civic engagement.
• Modern autocracies are adaptable, connected, and global—and democracies must respond in kind, especially regarding technology, law, and narrative.
• There is still hope: As Applebaum reiterates, the outcome is not predetermined, but will be shaped by the actions and convictions of democracy’s defenders—a responsibility that lies with all of us.

This summary aims to provide a comprehensive, engaging outline of the episode, capturing its core debates and Applebaum’s distinctive insights for listeners and non-listeners alike.