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Intelligence Squared
The Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook: Leadership Special, with Francine Lacqua (Part One)
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Mia Sorrenti
welcome to Intelligence Squared, where great minds meet. I'm producer Mia Sorrenti. Today's episode is part one of our recent Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook Leadership special. We were joined live at Smith Square hall in Westminster by Francine lacroix, Editor at large at Bloomberg TV and anchor of Leaders with Lacqua. Few journalists have spent more time questioning the people who shape the global economy. At Bloomberg, Lacroix interviews three to four chief executives every day, and over the course of her career, she has cross examined many of the heads of state, central bankers and founders who have shaped our world. As the question of leadership dominates British politics, Lacroix sat down with BBC broadcaster Johnny diamond to shed light on her most surprising interviews. What she learned about the inner workings of power from jogging alongside Saudi oil ministers in Vienna and what great leadership looks like in times of crisis. This episode is part of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook created in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. Guinness Global Investors is an independent British fund manager that helps both individuals and institutions harness the future drivers of growth to achieve their investment goals. To find out more, just head to guinnessgi.com or see the link in the episode description. But now let's join our host, Johnny diamond with more.
- [02:22]
Johnny Diamond
Welcome. Thank you very much. Welcome to this Intelligence Squared event. Tonight's conversation is part of the Intelligence Squared Economic Outlook series, which explores the forces shaping global markets, politics and business. I'm Johnny diamond, as has just been introduced, and I'm delighted to be sitting down with Francine Lacroix to discuss leadership in particular and its impact on the global economy. I think you would probably not be here if you didn't know who Francine was. She is an editor at large for Bloomberg tv. She is the award winning anchor of the Pulse with Francine Lacroix and Leaders with Francine Lacroix. And she has sat down with probably more CEOs, prime ministers and presidents than you can shake a stick at. She has also done this job in considerably more glamorous places than Smith Square, however beautiful this former church is at Davos, at the ECB forum and at IMF meetings all around the world. So it is a joy to have you here, Francine. Thank you very much indeed.
- [03:29]
Francine Lacroix
Good evening.
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Johnny Diamond
Let us dive in if we could and talk about if we can start with the leaders that you have met and interviewed and just give us an idea of what you look for when you first sit down and you start talking with them.
- [03:47]
Francine Lacroix
Well, good evening, everyone. Good evening, Joni. I'm so happy to be here in June. I mean, it was raining when I got up at 4 in the morning and now it's sunny. So there's always an upside to everything that we do look when we first of all decide to interview leaders. So you have the obvious G7, you have the heads of state to try and understand the story. And then a lot of them are chief executives that have gone through a tough time, an easy time, and trying to learn from them. So I've been at Bloomberg for 25 years. They've changed considerably just because the news has changed and what they focus on changed. And when I interview them, I think it really depends on where the conversation takes place. If it's an evening event, it's a little bit less combative than an early morning, pure TV show interview. What I look for is, I mean, if they lie, it's no good. So I do look for some kind of honesty in the conversations, but also I think a little bit of stamina. So you won't come on Bloomberg if you don't have much to say. So when we speak before, and I always say, look, this is what I'm looking for in the interview and come prepared to give us real answers. So it could be the state of the world, it could be the state of their company. But there's always, we do an interview with a very clear purpose and we make sure that they're ready to answer that question.
- [05:06]
Johnny Diamond
The people you speak to give many of them a fair number of interviews and they will have lines to take. They will have certain things that they will say over and over again. Can you feel that when they're giving you the line to take, they're giving you a corporate line. And do you Resent it.
- [05:24]
Francine Lacroix
I prepare for it. I don't know if I resent it. And so we do. Look, I do a lot of interviews. I do a lot of interviews of chief executives. I think on a daily basis, I'll do three or four, the big, big interviews, the one that are consequential, that are like half an hour, one hour, we really prepare. And so I'll go back and listen to other interviews. We'll look for patterns. And so I think there's a secret sauce in trying to draw out these chief executives to make sure that they don't say the same thing over and over. So some of them, if we talk about chief executives and not politicians, because I think you interview them differently. But if it's a chief executive that ate a management book and is always saying the same thing, and we decide actually they have an interesting story because it's a turnaround story, maybe it's a company that has gone through a lot of difficulties. Maybe it's a company that's too bloated and they chop into the workforce. Then we try and come up with. With. With more clever, you know, questions. I had a brilliant Boss Years ago, 15, 20 years ago, when I started doing the big interviews. And at the time there was this, you know, I started in covering oil, and there was this reporter who was extremely aggressive, and he was amazing because he could get anyone to say, say anything, especially with the oil ministers. And my boss said, you know, Francine, you are, you. You're Your personality. I'm not the most aggressive. I know what I want and I know what I want to ask. And she said, use that. So in your interviews with CEOs, just be more clever, use your sense of humor, use what you have as assets to try and get information out. And so that's what I do in every interview. I use kind of the tools that I have at my disposal. And so sometimes it's not tricking them, but I ask a lot of, like, what do you mean? Well, don't you think this, like, having a conversation? I mean, I wouldn't say with a pal, but an honest conversation, a business meeting where it's behind closed doors. So the real success is after the interview where they say, oh, I forgot that there was a camera, that that means that you've had a good conversation. And I think if you have those honest conversations and you keep the pace and make sure that they answer them, it's kind of what makes the secret sauce of a good leadership interview.
- [07:33]
Johnny Diamond
A quick word about the format for this Evening. Francine and I are going to talk until about 8 o', clock, and then we very much want to have your questions to Francine. And we will also be doing an online poll in about 20 minutes, which you'll see a QR code up on there and you'll be able to vote. And then we'll discuss the results when they come in, pretty much immediately. Let's talk about the individuals that you've spoken to. Of the leaders you have interviewed, whether it's business or politics, who has surprised you most and why?
- [08:08]
Francine Lacroix
I mean, many, and everyone is a little bit of a surprise, especially if it's the first time you interview them, because you make assumptions of them, watching them on TV or listening to them, and then maybe they come, you know, they're very different one on one. I think the one that maybe surprised me the most was Emmanuel Macron. He's a French president. I speak French. I listened to him many times, giving either speeches in French or being interviewed in French. And then we sat down for 20 minutes and he spoke English. Wow, was that different? Because actually the English language is much more direct. He is often accused in France of speaking like 18th century French, and so very detached from the common person on the street. And in English, he was much more efficient. So he worked in English, in banking. And I don't know whether it's because it was a business language, but he was easier to follow. He had, I think, more policy where he got to the points much quicker. And so for me, this was a real surprise. And even his aides, it was one of the first times that they actually heard him speak in English, they were surprised as well. They were surprised that he was so efficient. So a lot of the times, you know, I ask around when I interview someone, so if it's ahead of state and they'll come in, usually they're busy with makeup or something else. And I'll spend a bit of times with their aides and saying, like, oh, is he having a good day? Is she on good form? What's he like? And in those three minutes, I kind of try and gauge if there's something that on that day will make for a better interview. And sometimes, and for him, they said, well, he tends to speak a little bit long. It's not the case in English. So that was, you know, sometimes depending on what language you speak in, it really does make a difference.
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Johnny Diamond
Are the interviews, when you are talking to people in times of crisis, are they very different from the sort of company results or the everyday? Does it Feel that you are getting more out of people at a time of crisis or are they more defensive?
- [10:11]
Francine Lacroix
So my favorite interviews are at times when they're relaxed. So in times of earnings and times of crisis, I think there are important interviews. Earnings interview are extremely difficult to do because they've worked so hard on their statement to the markets and to the press that it's almost impossible to get them off script. So it's necessary, especially if there is big news or if they say something about the world economy or their financials. So those are interviews that we have to do and that's fine in times of crisis, again, it depends if it's someone that has messed up, usually they don't want to talk to the press. That's when you want to get them because there's either an apology or self reflection. If it's a time of crisis where chief executives or politicians feel like they've been wronged, it's an unpleasant interview because everything you ask they take very personally. So there was a time, I mean, this was, you know, a Prime Minister that, I mean, I gave a rough time too as a UK Prime Minister and he, I think he took it really badly because he was going through a rough time and he thought he was doing good.
- [11:19]
Johnny Diamond
Can you share the name?
- [11:20]
Francine Lacroix
I mean, this was Rishi Sunak.
- [11:22]
Johnny Diamond
Right.
- [11:24]
Francine Lacroix
And I'd understood afterwards from his team that he felt that he was doing better than what the questions were thrown at him were suggesting. And again, that's fine because actually we have a big newsroom. It's not, you know, we work on the questions together. But it's interesting to see the psychology of the person that you interview. The ideal interviews, when they're open and reflective. And so it really depends on how generous they are with their time and their thinking.
- [11:51]
Johnny Diamond
Do you get a sense from the interviews that you do of how much power individuals have? I mean, do you get the feeling after talking to them of whether or not they are able to drive through their vision or whether they are constrained or do you not get the chance during an interview to sense that?
- [12:15]
Francine Lacroix
So I think you do because you spend a bit of time with them in the green room. If it's on stage or if it's in the studio. You go to the green room. I like to go to the green room, say hello beforehand, just so that I see the mood and what they react to. And actually often the most interesting interaction is with their team. So you have again, this could be heads of state and chief executives. And I think it's very Similar. You can see when someone's in charge, right? You can see by their demeanor, by their body language. Sometimes they'll say what do you want to talk about? Or what's the first question? And it's different if they ask or whether they're in a corner thinking, thinking about other stuff or on their phone and it's their aides that do a lot of the talking. I mean I had so a former Italian prime minister who was, you know, twice before Meloni really surprised me because we were in Davos. It was one of the first interviews that he was doing. He was nervous about his English and it was a pre recorded. So I don't like pre records because they can stop. There's always like, it's, it's messy. I like live, it's more fun. They're usually more focused. And so we start by doing the interview and actually two of his aides stopped him and said, no, no, no, Mr. President, why don't you start on something more positive? And I thought, wow, this is a person that's not in charge of his own team so let alone the country. And so in those tiny moments, I think you see a lot about a person's personality, you see a lot about how they want to govern, how they want to be perceived. And if you can't control your own team, then I think it's very difficult to do policy and push it through.
- [13:50]
Johnny Diamond
Do you get the sense from interviews, from the interactions you've had with people that they are driving events or being driven by events? Do you get that much from them in 2026?
- [14:04]
Francine Lacroix
I think it's definitely events driving them. I think 2010 would have been a little bit different. When you look at the world economy or just the forces at play, you have AI and there's 1,001 questions about where that goes. You have instead of geopolitics, I would call it geostrategies. So you have poles of influence that used to work together that are now in competition for a number of things, be it trade routes, be it supremacy on AI or arms. You have the control of energy and oil, you have influence going back to Merckantilism. And so in this role, chief executives and leaders need to react. I don't know if they shape it. Maybe the US President is shaping it, maybe the Chinese president is shaping a little bit with ambitions. But otherwise it's much more of a reactive. And when I speak to them, it's kind of trying to make sure that you have an operators that is flexible enough to Deal with all of these shocks coming at you. And I think that's. That really has changed in the last 10 years. If you think about it, right, in the last four years, we've had four shocks. So we had COVID lockdown. Inflation went up. Central banks didn't react to the way maybe they should have because they. Because they mismanage or miscalculate inflation and then overshot it. You had the war in Ukraine that changed everything for the energy complex. Again, inflationary shock, maybe not the way that we thought it would play out. Then you have trade concerns, trade war from the US A lot of people held back, but still it was a big shock to the economy. And now you have AI and the war that's going on between Iran and the US So there are multiple of shocks. And I think a lot of chief executives find it hard to wade through all of this fog. They have difficulty in prioritizing, and a lot of them will be quite honest actually, about the difficulty in being in charge where visibility is so little.
- [16:06]
Johnny Diamond
For 25 years, there's been a bit of a debate about where power lies. In the early 2000s, there was a lot of concern about globalization and huge multinational companies taking power away from nation states. Financial crisis comes along, nation states are the sort of bankers and actors of last resort. And now, again, a big. A very powerful debate about whether or not power has swung back to business and away from political leaders. You talk to all of them. Do you have a feel for it? Do you have an opinion on it?
- [16:39]
Francine Lacroix
Well, when it comes to geopolitics or energy, this is definitely still with the States. When it comes to AI, it's very clear that the people that are most powerful in trying to deal with the technology and pushing the technology is the hyperscalers. So the one that are building the infrastructure around it and then the ones that are actually building the technical models. Now, I had a good conversation with the founder of Blackstone today, and he said a couple of surprising things. Because you talk about AI, you say, look, where does it end? Who's really in charge? Do we need to regulate it? Is this safe for everyone to use? And you have 1,001 questions about that. And he says, look, it's a little bit like the light bulb. When the light bulb was invented, it doesn't matter that there was a light bulb, is that there was this whole infrastructure, the grid that now powers everything we do. And so he sees the advent of AI as a necessity to upgrade our systems. So is it China that will end up winning this is it the us, Is it the LLMs? Is it AGI? He really sees it as a foundational work of this technology that will revolutionize humanity. And this is kind of like the big change in one of the forces that he's looking at and does that
- [17:56]
Johnny Diamond
again, to come back to that debate over business and nation states, does the way that he sees it draw from
- [18:05]
Francine Lacroix
nation states or I mean AI is 100% private, right? So you have OpenAI, you have DeepMind. So this is the power of the companies and we're seeing this fight especially between the US and Anthropic and trying to see who's controlling what and putting, you know, putting safeguards and saying you can't rule it out to foreign nationals. But at the moment, unless you regulate it or unless the government finds a way of absorbing it and taking over, it really is in the arm of not even private businesses. It's three, four companies that will control the way that we consume all of this. One of the questions that we spend quite a lot of time thinking about on the show is actually where is Europe in all of this? So whereas Europe, whereas in the UK and the dependency that Europe has on these models, I don't think Europe really can catch up. So it's really the US and China and a lot of it will depend on the chips that are made. And it changes again the social contract between the government and the individual. If now the power lies within three companies.
- [19:23]
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- [20:49]
Francine Lacroix
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- [22:51]
Johnny Diamond
Can we talk about turbulence of which you've touched on, and how you see leaders responding to it and what traits you think come out in turbulent periods that bring out the best in leaders? I'm thinking about, you know, decisiveness or judgment, stamina, their ability to communicate. I mean, good fortune. You know, what is it that you think makes the great leader at a time of great turbulence?
- [23:20]
Francine Lacroix
So all of the above. But they also have to enjoy it. So if a chief executive or again a head of state finds it hard to deal with all of this, it means that they don't have the right stamina. And that's probably a temperament. It's a temperament that if you like a challenge, and if despite the challenges, you want to grow, despite the challenges, you want to get better and further, then you'll be more successful. And I see that over and over again. Right. There's. I mean, I think a lot of the times I speak to big chief executives that have taken over banks or an absolute mess or big, you know, someone who wants power, but you don't really understand for what or how, and you understand, speaking to them, that it's about the power. But the ones that succeeded are very good at problem solving. So they almost thrive in chaos because they can see a way forward. So it's having vision and then it's also making sure that the people around you execute. I mean, it sounds simple, but it goes back, I think, to very simple principles that if you're a Prime Minister, you can take the UK or any other country, and if you don't have hold of your party that is much more divided than it was even 15, 20 years ago, where everything was much more centrist, then you're going to have a problem because your policies, if you try and please everyone, are going to be all over the place. So you have to like a challenge and you have to be able to get everyone on side.
- [24:51]
Johnny Diamond
Can I ask you about men and women, male and female leaders, and how you see, if you see a difference between them because of their gender?
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Francine Lacroix
I mean, there's been a lot of studies that I don't necessarily see reflected in the leader, the females leaders that I speak to. So a lot of the studies say women tend to bring people together. We know that Angela Merkel for a long time was one of the most popular German politicians, less so because of everything that's happened with Nord Stream and some of the immigration policy. But at the time, she was amazing. And she was very useful in G7S and G20s because she brought people to together. And so I remember going to a lot of these G7s where she would be the one. If the French president at the time was Sarkozy, would get in a hissy fit and walk out, she'd be the one to get him back. I don't know whether that is a feminine trait. I think bringing people together today is probably needed as much as even more than before. I hear a lot from female leaders that you know from other female leaders. For example, look at the Chancellor here and say, is she getting a tougher time because she's a female. I don't know the answer to that. I know other female leaders, you know, bank CEOs, they're very few and far between. Christine Lagarde at the ecb, I mean you could count them really on the hand. And they sometimes ask those questions. I know, I often ask what the most difficult times for them is in all their careers. And all of them say, look, it's either going in front of Parliament or the Treasury Select Committee or even testifying before Congress. In the us all the females will tell me they over prepare much more than the men because they want to be ready for it. Maybe the male leaders want to say it less. I don't know if there's a fundamental reason, but maybe. But there are fewer females in charge. There was even 10 years ago.
- [26:55]
Johnny Diamond
Let us go to our poll if we may. Since we've been discussing political leaders, we've been talking about what leadership looks like close up. I want to bring you into this, if I may. We have a number of questions as you've probably gathered in Britain about who will lead the country and what kind of leadership is demanded over the next five years. The general election needs to be held by August 15, 2029. Although it feels like a sort of PERMA campaign at the moment. If you take a look at the QR code, you'll find a choice on your phone of who you think will be running the UK in five years time. I note in the list there is precisely one woman and one. And whilst we do that, because you have spoken, I Think recently to 2 on the list, Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham. How did you find them?
- [27:45]
Francine Lacroix
So andy Burnham was 10 days before the local elections and it was a very short 10 minute interview on. So he thought there was a misunderstanding because I was in Madrid for a city's conference where there was a conference of mayors and his deputy mayor came on a as said, oh, Andy's really looking forward to meeting you and looking forward to talking about cities. And I said, well hold on a second. I mean we'll talk a little bit about cities but there's a little thing called the local elections which we can't ignore. And what I appreciated is that a they didn't cancel the interview and she said, oh, hold on, that's not what we were planning. Let me bring it over and you can discuss with him. So this was before the live interview and he said, look, I'm not, you know, I don't really want to talk about too much about the domestic issues and I said, no problem, I'll ask. And you just say you don't want to talk about it. And so we talked about it.
- [28:39]
Johnny Diamond
Okay.
- [28:41]
Francine Lacroix
I hope you have been voting quite hands on. Yeah, right. And that's kind of, that was for me a good sign.
- [28:46]
Johnny Diamond
Yeah, yeah, you have been voting. Tell me if you could briefly about West Streeting, then we'll discuss the results.
- [28:52]
Francine Lacroix
So Wes treating, I spoke to him 10 days ago at south by Southwest. He, we had 45 minutes together. So it was a significantly longer interview. It was skewed towards tech. He, you know, a lot of the questions he's, he's very good, he's a great talker. A lot of the questions he tried not to answer too much, especially on Palantir and you know what he would do with some of the government contract if he was in charge. And I was a little bit frustrated. I tried to push him on it and I think there's something very peculiar and very difficult and I try and remind myself so that I don't get frustrated in someone who hasn't put his, officially his name in the ring to become Prime Minister. And so you don't want to campaign too early. So in terms of policies, there's almost like a fine art of when you really want to start talking about policies and campaigning and when you, you really want to give answers because otherwise the voters will hold you account. So, yeah, he was a very good talker, but didn't say very much, didn't answer any of the difficult questions that I think he'll have to answer if there's a real leadership contest and if he's one of them. I mean, he was very interested. We talked a lot about Andy Burnham actually and he said he knows he, he's the underdog if, if Mayor Burnham gets to be in Parliament and, and whether he runs. He was reading, you know, was again, I thought he was very, very honest in saying, look, I'm not going to say that he's not a good leader, but I'd like to see him tested.
- [30:33]
Johnny Diamond
Okay.
- [30:33]
Francine Lacroix
Okay.
- [30:34]
Johnny Diamond
You can see the results 43% of hours. This is who people think, not necessarily would like to be running the UK in five years time. Before we go into the personalities, can we just talk about what you think you'll be watching to think about the political direction of Britain. I mean, whether it is parties being able to give a strong narrative, whether it's living standards, cost of living, whether it is the markets. What will you be looking to?
- [31:13]
Francine Lacroix
So I don't think it'll be the markets. I think the markets play a function of trying to hold people into account. But I don't think anyone goes in the voting booth and says like maybe in the US just because the consumer is much closer to the equity markets, because there's a lot more retail investing in the uk. I don't think they'll look at the markets unless or some kind of market event or market crash like it happened with Liz Truss where people just worry that the mess or that the country will be in a mess economically. I think people, given where we are now, will think about immigration. I think this is what swung the vote in the US and it's probably the same here. Could be here in the UK and that certainly would explain the polling that Nigel Farage has and maybe your thoughts on, on who will be Prime Minister. And then I think it's affordability. And affordability again goes to things that are kind of out of politicians hands. It goes to inflation. That has been largely driven by what's been happening with the price of oil and the Middle East. I know the UK is a small open economy so they are also much more, more hurt by some of, you know, the price of energy than say France and Germany. They are much more vulnerable to swinging mortgages. So maybe that's a little bit of the markets because they're so dependent on investors. But I think at the end of the day where people are in their voting booth is the only question that matters is am I better off than I was five years ago? Are my children going to be better off than I was when I was their age?
- [32:52]
Johnny Diamond
Respond if you will to what you see there. I mean there's been a polling lead now for Reform UK for a considerable amount of time. But that is such a convincing margin saying that Nigel Farage will be leading in five years time. I mean, someone who has not held political office, someone who has been in Parliament for what, two years, someone who is a very proud outsider and yet our audience is pretty convinced that he will lead the country in five years time. What do you make of it?
- [33:25]
Francine Lacroix
So partly it's polling, partly it is because he's come out of nowhere that people think it's kind of unstoppable. I mean anything, you know, his popularity would have been unthinkable two, three years ago and he's been on the scene for many years. I think his party is completely untested on the economy. I think we haven't really seen any policies like we haven't with Andy Burnham. And actually a lot of The, a lot of, you know, people that have to be tested. And again, five years, a lot, A lot of things can happen in five years. You know, how this country deals with AI, how it deals with inflation, what the bank of England does, how it does with. With attracting investment and attracting business, I think will make a huge, huge impact on the thinking. Like, you know, we've been trying to think like Keir Starmer is not popular.
- [34:16]
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- [34:16]
Francine Lacroix
That's an understatement. Why? Because in the budgets, they've been trying to throw everything at it. Like there's no, there hasn't been big surprises, but he just hasn't been convincing. So if you have a Labor leader that is convenient convincing, maybe that changes.
- [34:34]
Johnny Diamond
If it is Nigel Farage going into Downing street in mid-2029, how would you anticipate investor and market reaction
- [34:48]
Francine Lacroix
again? I mean, it really. I'd have to have him here and ask him about fiscal policy and deficit, which, which, you know, for the moment,
- [34:55]
Johnny Diamond
given that Reform UK is entirely untested and has at the moment fairly limited economic policies, do you think that would be of concern or do you think by that point we will know enough that they will have reassured people?
- [35:10]
Francine Lacroix
I think there are two types of politicians that have been untested. I think, you know, Giorgia Meloni was one. People were worried about the fact that she'd be fiscally reckless. She, you know, there was a lot of worry that she'd be too close to Russia and she managed to find a middle ground. You know, we'd have much better, much better idea. Maybe the people around Nigel Farage that understand the economy at the moment, he has been picking a fight with the bank of England governor. And I think if there are more fights that go to the central bank independence, this would this woods, let's make, you know, make him lose credibility with, with the economy. So it's, you know, when, if you're very close to power, right. Or if you're very close to winning, do you suddenly become much more centrist on the economy and then keep your views on everything else? I mean, it's a template that has worked for certain countries in Europe, I would say, better than other templates. If you mess around with the economy too much, people tend not to like that because it really changes our livelihoods and mortgages.
- [36:20]
Mia Sorrenti
Thanks for listening to Intelligence Squared. This episode was created in partnership with Guinness Global Investors. It was produced by me, Mia Sorrenti, and it was edited by Mark Roberts. For more information on Guinness, just head to guinnessgi.com or see the link in the episode description. For ad free episodes and full length recordings, you can become a member@intelligencesquared.com membership and if you'd like to join us at future live events, you can head over to intelligencesquared.com attend to see our full program or buy tickets. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining us.
- [37:13]
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