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Mia Sorrenti
Chosen Foods welcome to Intelligence Squared, where great minds meet. I'm producer mia Sorrenti. In September 2022, a series of underwater explosions tore through the Nord Stream pipelines beneath the Baltic Sea. The destruction of this $20 billion pipeline severed a major artery of Russian gas supplies to Europe, disrupted economies and triggered a manhunt that strained relations within the NATO alliance. Despite capturing the imagination of millions, the mystery of who blew up the pipeline has so far gone unsolved. Could it have been the CIA? Or part of the shadow war between Russia and the West? Could Putin himself have been behind it? On today's episode, Bojan Panchevski, chief European political correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, joins Hannah Lucinda Smith to discuss his new book, the Nord Stream Conspiracy, the inside story of the explosions that shook the world, and his investigation into a mystery that continues to reverberate through international politics. Let's join our host, Hannah Lucinda Smith, now with more.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Bojan Panjevsky, welcome to Intelligence Squared and congratulations on the Nordstream Conspiracy. It's really both a great work of journalism and research, but also a really, really cracking read. This is a book that reads like a thriller. In fact, it is. It's a real life thriller. Can you just first of all explain to us what the Nordstream was and what happened to it?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, first, thank you so much for the kind words. It was meant to read like a thriller because I've done some kind of field study with the publishers and it turns out not many people read nowadays because of the algorithms, because of other ways of absorbing information. So I was hoping that I'll be able to write a narrative that people actually try and read. So thank you ever so much for that and for the invitation. Nord Stream was, or is, to a point, the largest, the world's largest offshore portfolio pipeline system. It was channeling. It was built to channel Russian natural gas, which goes all the way from the permafrost of Siberia through European Russia and then underneath, beneath the Baltic Sea and kind of lands in Germany in a place called Lubmin. And the pipeline system had two pipelines, Nord Stream 1, which is the older pipeline, and Nord Stream 2, which was built a bit later. And both of them had two sort of strings each, two lines each. So in total, there are four actual pipes going beneath the sea and landing in Germany, connecting Russia and Germany.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
So this was a pipeline that was going to basically supply Germany's gas. What then happened to it?
Bojan Panchevski
Yeah, it's important to note that, like I said, there were two pipelines. I mean, two parallel pipelines, part of the same system. And the first, the older One, Nord Stream 1, was actually a pan European consortium. The majority share, or the largest share was held by the Russians where the gas originates, but the rest of it was ownership of European companies from Germany, but also from France, the Netherlands, et cetera. So that was a time, I think the first line of Nord Stream 1 became operational in 2011. So that was a time when people still wanted to trade with Russia. And if you look at the pictures from the festive opening, the Prime Minister of France at the time, Francois Fillon, is there sort of smiling, a broad smile. There are representatives of the European Commission, the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rute, who has now reinvented himself as the head of NATO and is a big hawk when Russia was there and was quite happy to open this Russian slash European pipeline. So it was basically serving the Western European market, not just Germany. It's quite often forgotten that Germany wasn't alone in this, at least not from the onset. Then came Nord Stream 2, and that was a much more controversial pipeline because by then Russia had invaded Ukraine in 2014. It had kind of done a lot of transgressions on the international stage, that the tensions between Europe and the west in general and Russia were escalating. And so Nord Stream 2 was built later and it was pushed by Germany mainly, or to be more specific, by Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor. So it was highly controversial because a lot of countries in Europe, including the United Kingdom, were very much opposed to it. The United Kingdom, I think, was opposed together with the United States, to both pipelines because they felt we shouldn't make ourselves reliant on Russian gas, because Russia can use that reliance, which later became addiction, in fact, as a geopolitical method of coercion, even as a weapon. Eastern Europeans hated the pipeline. The now deputy Prime Minister of Poland, Radek Sikorski even likened it to the Ribbentrop Moloptov Pact, which was a pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union to kind of divide Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe. So the pipeline had many, many enemies. And basically towards the end, Germany was the only country, pretty much from the major European economies that was basically bulldozing this project in the shape of Angela Merkel. I think by that time people had turned against it. Even the French president, Emmanuel Macron, was opposed to it. He publicly kind of commented on that and so on. And obviously the biggest opponent in many ways was Ukraine, because there are older Soviet era pipelines that run through Ukraine and Ukraine used to get lucrative transit fees for that. And even until January 2025, that arrangement continued. Even during the war, Ukraine was eliciting kind of money out of it. So the Ukrainians were very much opposed because they felt North Stream was. The idea of Nord Stream was to circumvent them and then sort of cut them out of the business deal, but also made them vulnerable to an aggression from Russia. And that concern was dismissed in Germany and other countries as exaggerated. But it has to be said that the people who said that at the time now feel vindicated because the moment Nord Stream was completed, basically Putin did invade Ukraine the first time in 2014 when Nord Stream 1 was completed, and the second time in 2022 when Nord Stream 2 was completed. So people who claim that originally now feel that what they've been saying all along was always true.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Of course, hindsight's a wonderful thing, isn't it? But of course, you know.
Bojan Panchevski
Exactly. Everyone's a general after the battle.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Yeah, exactly, exactly. But I mean, as you said there, you know, particularly after 2014, there were, you know, strong oppositional voices against Nord Stream 2. Why do you think that Germany was so determined to push ahead with that project?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, you know, I covered that project pretty much from the onset and I spoke to the sort of key players. I attended attended briefings by Angela Merkel when she discussed this off the record. I spoke to her sort of main aides, including the Economy Minister who was in charge of that portfolio. And they all would say, look, we've been trading with the Soviets going back to the worst years of the Cold War. And the Soviets always, always, always delivered gas and then oil. So it's irrational to think that they would do something else because they need the money, they need our money, we need their gas, and they're giving us the best price on the market. And there's the rub. Germany did get the best price on the market. Germany got much cheaper gas coming from Nord stream than countries that are very close to Russia got from Russia, because gas is a commodity. And Gazprom, the state controlled giant, can set the prices whichever way they like. Basically, Vladimir Putin personally can make a decision, Germany will get cheaper gas. And apparently he did make that decision after the whole shebang, after the war kind of started and everything. And Angela Merkel retired. She wrote a memoir. And in that memoir she said, everything I did, she kind of completely refused to repent or to allow any doubt about her decisions or any self critique, which is interesting for a memoir. And then she said essentially it was the cheapest gas on the market. It was obviously the right thing to do to buy this gas because it fueled the growth of the German economy. And the German economy to a large extent relies on industry, and industry is quite often fueled by gas. And then of course, German homes, I think the majority of them are heated by gas. In fact, you know, I own an apartment, I live now in Spain, but I do own an apartment in Germany, and we have gas for heating, you know. So everyone in Germany is kind of touched more or less by the situation with gas imports. And her argument was it was the cheapest gas and they were always reliable. And even when the war started, people were thinking in Germany, in Berlin, and this is across the aisle, across the political spectrum, you know, and certainly captains of the industry, entrepreneurs and people like that would always say, well, look, you know, we got a great deal with the Russians. They're not going to be insane sane to tamper with this. No matter what the war brings or whatever, they need the money. Who on earth in their rational state of mind would damage a lucrative relationship like this? And I think the failure to understand Putin's reasoning led to this, because Putin, of course, is a rational actor, but he sets his priorities and his priority was explained in many of his speeches and writings. He wrote an essay about Ukraine, and basically his priority is to expand the Russian empire to make Russia great again by re including territories that he believes are Russian heartland. And Ukraine belongs to that. So essentially for him, lucrative deals are great, but if they are standing in the way of imperial expansion, then tough luck. And that's exactly what happened.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Of course, the central event in your book is the sabotage of this pipeline, which happens just a few months after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. But actually, the story that you're telling is a far wider one. It's the story of the transformation of Ukraine's security forces. It's the story of Ukraine's relations with the West. How soon after that sabotage did you realize that it was going to be a story that you wanted to dig into? And also that it was kind of, you know, the gateway into this far wider story.
Bojan Panchevski
Essentially, I started working on this story on the second day after the explosions took place, because the explosions were reported on the first day. And then the first images came out, you know, this kind of now iconic images of eruption water kind of bubbling in the middle of the Baltic Sea. And as soon as I saw the footage, I knew this was gigantic. And I kind of started working on that story. I knew it would be an amazing story because it was pretty obvious that it was sabotage. And at the time, nobody quite knew how you do a sabotage like that.
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Bojan Panchevski
A lot of experts who were summoned by journal like me and other outlets were saying things which they believed must be plausible. They turned out not to be plausible. I mean, one popular opinion was that you would need at least 500 kilos of TNT explosives to cause that sort of damage at one point. And in the end, there were many explosions. I think six explosions were registered. So people thought, this is a gigantic amount of explosives. It must have involved a huge submarine, a huge ship, big underwater drones and things. And it sounded all very filmical, cinematic and interesting. And obviously the initial assumption was it's a state actor. I mean, why would a private actor do this? So it must be a state, and which state has the capacity? And then all these rumors are swirling. Was it the Americans? Was it the British, even? There was a time, and I think some people still try to claim that it was some. The SAS or someone like that, you know, was it Russia and so on. So I started looking into it literally from. From the first moment I saw the pictures on my mobile phone. And then, you know, it took me a while to realize that I actually had direct access to the people who did it, because I had been reporting on Ukraine from the Ukrainian frontlines since 2014, and I've reported about Ukraine ever since. And so it turned out that I had this network of contacts in Ukrainian intelligence and counterintelligence who at the end, kind of provided the link to the people behind it. And I even had met one of the masterminds of the operation before the war started. I met him in Kiev. I described that in the prologue of the book. But it took me about a year, I think. I'm not sure quite exactly how long, but it took me a long time to actually Realize I've got dying direct access to this conspiracy. And so, you know, in the moment when I realized who are the people behind this? By that time I already had known who the German detectives are, which is the other aspect of the book. I think I tried to tell the story from the perspective of the people who carried out the operation, which is a crime in Germany, and the people who are investigating that crime. The investigators, the detectives. And when I met the both groups of people, I realized these are extremely cinematic characters, absolutely extraordinary. And I thought you would need a book to tell the story. You know, it's not enough to do kind of daily journalism or weekly journalism on it. It's something. It's a kind of a large format narrative.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
As you sort of, as you mentioned there, there's these two groups of protagonists in your book. On the one side, there's Ukrainian intelligence and military officers. On the other side, the German investigators. When I first started reading, I assumed that you were taking quite an anti Germany position. That's the impression I got. And actually, as the book went on, I thought, no, actually you're being. You're far more neutral in this. But as you were kind of meeting these characters, was there sort of one group that you felt more sympathy towards or did that kind of shift as you went along?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, look, I would never take an anti German position. I lived in Germany for almost eight years. I know that country. I'm kind of still embedded in it in many ways. I mean, sympathy at a human level, once you get to know someone well, you establish a relationship and it's common with the source, kind of source journalist relationship, where you know them quite well and you try to understand them, or at least believe to understand them. And for me, you know, I have respect for all of my sources because typically they are extraordinary people. I mean, I tend to do investigative journalism and a lot of my sources are very unusual. You know, they're law enforcement, they're sometimes from the intelligence community, sometimes politicians, sometimes they're criminals. And you know, in the past I've investigated criminal networks and stuff and I always have respect for them. Right. I mean, it's like sympathy. I don't know. I tend not to get involved emotionally with in stories like that. But I certainly have great respect for everyone I describe in the book because they acted on very strong motives. Right. And they are also extremely capable. You know, I mean, whatever crime the Ukrainians committed, in the eyes of the German law, they were extremely capable in what they did. And their motivation was patriotism. Right. It wasn't terror or criminal intent. And I think this is recognized by the investigators as well, by the way. So I kind of learned to respect the abilities of all these protagonists without getting emotionally involved or approving. You know, when in doubt, of course I stand for law and order. I will be on the side of law and order in doubt. But I did. You know, I think the portrayal tends to be, or at least I've tried for the portrayal of the characters to be as unbiased and as objective as possible. I'm trying to kind of describe who they are and what they are and why they acted the way they did. And it's interesting that both sets of protagonists are acting on similar motives. Right. The Ukrainians were driven by patriotism. They wanted to interrupt the cash flow that Russia had at the time of the planning of the operation from Nord Stream. And they wanted to sever that geopolitical bond between Western Europe and Russia. Because by the time of the full scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union was getting almost half of its gas from Russia. And in Germany, that figure was even higher. I think over half of the gas Germany was consuming or importing was coming from one supplier. You know, and that is something quite extraordinary. You don't, you don't really want to do that in any kind of realm of the economy or your personal life. Why would you be dependent on someone so much when you're obviously open to all sorts of pressures and blackmails and especially if that someone is increasingly rogue international actor like Russia? Because by the time of the full scale invasion, Putin had started several wars. You know, he invaded Georgia, he had invaded Ukraine. Ukraine and separate parts of its territory. He annexed the Kremlin peninsula, sorry, the Crimean peninsula. So the Ukrainian motivation was not financial, not criminal. There was no criminal energy involved. They were patriotic kind of saboteurs, whereas the Germans were also patriotic. They were also people who are doing their job. They didn't care about the politics of their investigation, which is hugely political. You know, it's very politically charged. What they were doing are doing. But they never to, you know, to my knowledge and during the period that I observed them, they never cared really about the politics. You know, it could have been the Americans. They did investigate the Americans. In fact, they investigated the Russians. They would have investigated anyone, you know, and they didn't care. It was just like a kind of a rule of law in the wild, you know, for me to observe, it was, that's how a rule of law state functions. The politicians were not always happy with the findings of the German investigators. I mean, the previous government of Germany under Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not impede in any way the investigation, but they were keeping a lid on it. And they were certainly not looking forward to a scandal revealing that Ukraine or someone in Ukraine is behind the attack because they unleashed a huge program of support of the Ukrainian struggle against Russian aggression. And Germany is now, I think, the biggest Western backer or the biggest backer, full stop of Ukraine after the Trump administration kind of pulled back a little bit. And the present German government, it's a conservative led government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. And equally they are slightly embarrassed about what might come out of it, but they're not trying to stop it. Right. So the German police acted on motivations which are completely admirable. They wanted to do their job. They were extremely professional, they were extremely, I think, objective in pursuing the avenues for their investigation and they were excluding suspects in a logical, methodical manner. So it was, I think all around, I hope to have portrayed everyone in a way that does justice to their work.
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Hannah Lucinda Smith
I mean you make this point towards the end of your book that you know, Germany enshrines freedom of the press and its constitution and at no point did you face any kind of opposition, which yeah, is absolutely testament to the kind of the strength of that part of Germany's democracy. But also, you know, the story that you tell about Ukraine is not one of kind of simple black and white which is often told particularly in, in the western media. You know, you make the point that until very, very late on, you know, Ukraine's security services were utterly infiltrated by, by Russia. You know, that there are individuals working within those intelligence services as an air free intelligence service that are not, you know, entirely clean individuals. Did you receive any pushback or. Sorry, let me start again. Did you receive any pushback or any obstruction coming from the Ukrainian side as you're investigating?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, you know, I portray things the way I saw them, the way I witnessed him, you know, objectively I hope. Like I said, I've been reporting from and about Ukraine since 2014. It's now 12 years. I know the country quite well. It is not, you know, in terms of rule of law. It is certainly not comparable to Germany or to United Kingdom or to any kind of Western democracy. It is still. It is a young, fragile democracy. It is plagued by enormous corruption at every level of society and government layer. You know, there are a bunch of scandals now erupting around President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, his own chief of staff, was forced to resign, and he was even detained for a few days as part of a corruption probe. And he had to kind of fork out $3 million to pay for the bail. And other very senior figures from Zelenskyy's government have been removed or were forced to flee, in fact, in foreign countries. And not just government figures, but also people close to him and his business. So I think a lot of that is in the open now and in many ways in the post Soviet realm, which Ukraine is part of, although now it's emancipating itself from it, obviously by obvious means of fighting for its independence. It's quite typical for the intelligence services to be enforcers of some sort of political regime, but also some sort of political corruption or corruption, full stop. So that is, you know, Russia is, you know, by these standards of, for example, transparency international, Russia is more corrupt than Ukraine. So, you know, these countries, Belarus, Ukraine and the other post Soviet republics, they tend to be quite corrupt, you know, still. And the intelligence services play a central role in this. And Ukraine is no different. You know, so the people I portray in the book, they come from that world of intelligence, Ukrainian intelligence. I think all of them were, as one of them told me, alma mater, my alma mater is the sbu, which is the biggest intelligence service of Ukraine. It's comparable to the FSB in Russia. And it was actually kind of modeled on the kgb, the big old notorious Soviet service. And some of them are actually extremely opposed to that corruption that have been fighting it throughout their careers and have suffered for it. Others, then again, one figure I describe in the book has himself engaged in corruption. He's made a lot of money when he was in a very senior position in one of the intelligence services, through procurement arrangements and other things, he was able to make a small fortune for himself and his family. So it's kind of a checkered picture. You know, reality is never black and white. And, you know, I hasten to add, though, because the corruption of Ukraine has bizarrely been used by the Russians and by their proxies in the west as some sort of a justification for the invasion, you know, by Ukraine is anyway corrupt and we shouldn't supported as if you're corrupt, you deserve to be massacred and bombarded, and you have your cities and villages kind of leveled and torched to the ground. That's obviously a bizarre argument. And a lot of countries are corrupt and certainly we wouldn't support invading them. And finally, Russia obviously is much more corrupt than Ukraine itself. Although it's an academic contest, we're talking about very high levels of corruption. So to answer your question, some people within Zelenskyy government were upset with my coverage. I mean, I not wanting to give away too much, I'd like the listeners or viewers to buy the book. But there is an anecdote where I describe how one of them intervened to stop one of my stories from coming. You know, the people I spoke to, I quote one of them by name. He kind of denies everything and he's upset about the very suggestion that, that the government could have something to do with it. So, you know, but I know how to navigate that world because I've known it for quite a long time. And I think ultimately people who are familiar with it inside and outside of Ukraine will, I think, recognize the circumstances I describe.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Russia is insistent that Nord Stream will come back online. Do you think there's a world in which that can happen?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, look, I mean, when the Trump administration started negotiating a peace arrangement, some sort of settlement with the Russians last year, the Russians brought up Nord Stream fairly early. I think perhaps even in the first session they had in Saudi Arabia. And then later on, Lavrov, the Minister of Foreign affairs of the Russian Federation, publicly even said that that Nord Stream is part of the negotiation and has to be reopened. I think the Russians want that. It's perfectly clear they do want that. I was told recently that they've raised the issue recently again in the talks with Witkoff and Jared Kushner and the son in law of Donald Trump. And both of them are now acting as negotiators on behalf of the President of the United States. So the Russians want it. They've made various kind of advances to the Americans and I think to the Germans through various back channels. I personally don't think it's feasible for that to happen unless we have a very comprehensive peace treaty with Ukraine that will end the war and kind of satisfy the Europeans that the Russians have sort of gone out of their way to resolve this matter and stop their aggression. And I don't think that's likely at all. What I think is likely, relatively unlikely, but possible, is that there would be some sort of a ceasefire, but I doubt there will be a comprehensive peace treaty. And in that context, I can't imagine Germany reopening Nord Stream. Certainly not any establishment party in government would agree to that, because at present, there are sanctions against the pipeline system as a whole, and there are European sanctions and American sanctions. Even if the Americans would lift their sanctions, that's conceivable. You know, if Trump makes an arrangement, he can always have them lifted, but the Europeans won't. And so. And even if the Europeans would magically lift the sanctions, Germany will still need to approve this as a nation state, as a government. And its regulators would have to certify parts of the pipeline, first of all, because the older pipeline was damaged and the newer pipeline was never even certified for political reasons reasons. And then when the war started, certification became a moot point. So the sanctions will block any kind of effort of doing something about it. And I think, personally, I think it's unlikely. But the Russians have a very long breath. The difference between Vladimir Putin and any European or American leader is that he's not going to be voted out of office. In fact, they did a story recently about him investing in longevity science. So he said he plans to live to the age of 150. So, you know, he's not going anywhere, let me put it that way. There's no real democracy in Russia, quite obviously, and so he can wait for an opportune moment. I mean, it's not inconceivable that the pro Russian opposition at one point will become part of a German federal government. It's very unlikely at the moment, but who knows what the future holds? So I wouldn't exclude it. But in the next few years, I can't see it happening.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Brian, you make the point that this attack on the Nord Stream pipeline kind of opened up a new theater of war. It opened up the possibility, perhaps a heightened risk that states will attack these kind of pipelines or undersea cables and actually with very little blood and treasure, even though huge amounts of intelligence work could really cause serious damage to the adversaries, and we've entered a kind of more dangerous era because of it. What do you think has prevented similar attacks happening in the almost four years now since this attack on Nord Stream?
Bojan Panchevski
Well, first of all, you know, it needs to be said that the attack on Nord Stream is quite unique in the annals of sabotage and kind of military operations. Nothing like that has been attempted before. It's probably the biggest act of sabotage in modern time. You know, I mean, anything like that can be disputed, but it's pretty unique. And I think it's also unique in the sense that it was done on the cheap. It was done on a shoestring. The whole operation costs around $250,000, which is extremely cheap for any such operation, especially bearing in mind that the pipeline system cost around $20 billion to build. So that's an incredible kind of return for investment on behalf of the saboteurs. And I think why it hasn't happened at that scale since the war. So, first of all, a lot of things have happened since the war. Pipelines have been damaged, undersea cables have been severed, satellites have been affected. There's a lot of COVID sabotage happening. The Russians were extremely active in Western Europe, including in Great Britain. I think there are some trials in London finishing or even having finished by now of people of civilian proxies who acted on behalf of Russia, who were hired on social media to set a warehouse on fire or do something similar. So I think things are happening not at that scale because I believe none of the actors, so NATO countries and Russia are yet ready to escalate to a point where they would destroy a major asset like that of the other side, because then they would expose themselves to retaliation. And I think I certainly know that since Trump got elected or since he got into office, the Russians have been holding back a little bit because they did believe there is a possibility of making a deal with this guy. And I think that culminated around that Alaska summit when he actually meet, when Trump and Putin met. So there is still, I think, some residual hope in the Russian system that they might reach a deal, an overarching deal with the Americans, because that's all they care about. They see Europe, including Britain, as a kind of a vassal of the United States, not really worth talking to. And they're hoping to kind of cut a deal with Trump, essentially. So I think they are holding back to an extent, and certainly the west is holding back because once you start doing these things, you open yourself kind of to potential retaliation. And the Russians can't afford that at the moment because, you know, they are being hammered by Ukrainian drones. Their energy infrastructure is being destroyed every day by the ever more improved Ukrainian drone program. So I think they'd be wary of starting a full on kind of shadow war against the West. And the west is not likely. Countries like the United Kingdom or the United States are much less likely to go there. What I realized in the course of my reporting is that there's nothing really you can do to protect the pipeline like that. A pipeline like that runs 1200km along the seabed of the Baltic Sea. It's pretty much impossible to protect the entire length of it at all times. And so if a non state actor, such a terror organization, Islamic State or whoever would figure it out and they have done that in the past. Think about 9 11. That was also kind of done on a shoestring. They used pilots, they used suicide serve operatives and you know, if they figure it out, they might, you know, take, take a look into doing something like that.
Hannah Lucinda Smith
Bojan Panzewski, thank you so much for joining Intelligence Squared.
Bojan Panchevski
Thank you ever so much for inviting me. It was a great pleasure.
Mia Sorrenti
Thanks for listening to Intelligence Squared. This episode was produced by me, Mia Sorrenti and it was edited by Mark Roberts. For ad free episodes and full length recordings, you can become a member@intelligencesquared.com membership and if you'd like to join us at any future live events, you can head over to intelligencesquared.com attend to see our full program and buy tickets. You've been listening to Intelligence Squared. Thanks for joining us.
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James from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
hi everyone, this is James and Dan. We are 2/4 of the hit UK podcast no such Thing as a Fish.
Dan from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
That's right. Every week we sit down behind some microphones and share with each other the best things we found out over the last seven days.
James from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
Yes. So for instance, Dan, did you know that you cannot tie a knot in four dimensions?
Dan from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
I knew that's where I was going wrong. Interesting.
James from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
There are all sorts of reasons why, but we would go into them all on our podcast. Podcast. Along with loads of extra facts as well.
Dan from No Such Thing as a Fish Podcast
That's right. And if you want to check it out, no Such Thing as a Fish is available wherever you get your podcasts.
Episode: Who Really Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipeline? With Bojan Pancevski
Date: June 21, 2026
Host: Hannah Lucinda Smith
Guest: Bojan Pancevski, Chief European Political Correspondent, Wall Street Journal
This episode of Intelligence Squared centers on the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022—a pivotal act that reverberated through global politics, energy markets, and international security. Guest Bojan Pancevski discusses his investigation and new book, The Nord Stream Conspiracy, diving into who might have been behind the explosions, why this critical infrastructure was targeted, and the broader implications for Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. The conversation transcends the singular act of sabotage, exploring themes of dependency, covert operations, corruption, and the evolving landscape of modern conflict.
The Sabotage of Nord Stream:
Examining the destruction of one of the world’s largest gas pipeline systems, the debate over responsibility, and the far-reaching aftermath on European security and energy policy.
Bojan Pancevski explains that Nord Stream is the "world’s largest offshore portfolio pipeline system," designed to channel Russian gas from Siberia under the Baltic Sea to Germany—ultimately serving much of Western Europe.
“It was built to channel Russian natural gas, … connects Russia and Germany.” (02:14)
Two phases:
Nord Stream 1 was broadly welcomed, but by the time Nord Stream 2 was proposed/completed, it was highly divisive:
Notable Quote:
“Germany did get the best price on the market. ...[Gas] fueled the growth of the German economy.” — Bojan Pancevski (08:23)
Comparison: Critics, like Poland's Radek Sikorski, likened Nord Stream to historical deals that betrayed Eastern Europe.
Initial reaction: The explosion was quickly understood as sabotage, with global theories swirling about state perpetrators (US, UK, Russia).
Bojan’s investigation: Started on "the second day after the explosions"; his connections in Ukrainian intelligence proved vital.
“It was pretty obvious that it was sabotage… As soon as I saw the footage, I knew this was gigantic.” (12:19)
Investigation focus: Both the saboteurs (Ukrainian intelligence) and the German detectives, with Bojan striving for objectivity in portraying both sides.
Unbiased narrative: Pancevski emphasizes respect for all central figures—Ukrainian saboteurs (motivated by patriotism) and German investigators (committed to the rule of law).
“Whatever crime the Ukrainians committed, in the eyes of the German law, they were extremely capable in what they did. And their motivation was patriotism.” (16:09)
German police and investigators were methodical and politically neutral, investigating all possible leads, regardless of discomfort to their government or allies.
Complex reality: Ukraine’s intelligence services are deeply shaped by post-Soviet legacies, with widespread corruption, multiple power centers, and Russian infiltration even after the 2014 revolution.
Pancevski’s reporting: Encountered both cooperation and pushback from Ukrainian officials, with attempts to influence or block stories. “It is a young, fragile democracy. It is plagued by enormous corruption at every level...” (25:55)
Warning: The reality is nuanced—not a simple “good vs. evil” dichotomy as often presented.
Russia’s aim: Reintroduction of Nord Stream is central in negotiations, but multiple sanctions and battered German trust make its return highly improbable. “I can't imagine Germany reopening Nord Stream. … At present, there are sanctions against the pipeline system as a whole.” (30:49)
Systemic barriers: EU and US sanctions, political reluctance, and technical certification hurdles.
Transformative attack: The sabotage set a precedent—massive infrastructure disruption possible at low cost, with attribution highly difficult. “It was done on a shoestring. The whole operation costs around $250,000… the pipeline system cost around $20 billion to build.” (34:45)
Precarious safety: Modern undersea infrastructure (cables, pipelines) is essentially undefendable along its entire length. The restraint on further attacks is likely strategic rather than technical.
Current calculus: Neither Russia nor NATO countries want to escalate further while broader negotiations or hopes for détente (esp. under the Trump administration) persist.
This episode delivers a gripping, nuanced inquiry into the Nord Stream attacks—balancing journalistic objectivity, geopolitical history, and sharp investigative reporting. Pancevski’s insights cut through propaganda, highlighting the complexities of international alliances, state and non-state actors, and the vulnerabilities of our modern infrastructure.
For listeners seeking a sophisticated understanding of the Nord Stream attack and its ongoing resonance, this episode provides both a narrative and analytic deep-dive that feels urgent and essential.