Podcast Summary: Matter of Opinion – "A Pollster Helps Us Manage Our Election Anxiety"
Podcast Information:
- Title: Matter of Opinion
- Host/Author: New York Times Opinion
- Description: Thoughts, aloud. Hosted by Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada. Every Friday, from New York Times Opinion.
- Episode: A Pollster Helps Us Manage Our Election Anxiety
- Release Date: October 18, 2024
Introduction
As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, the episode titled "A Pollster Helps Us Manage Our Election Anxiety" delves into the complexities and uncertainties surrounding election polling. Hosts Ross Douthat, Michelle Cottle, and Carlos Lozada engage in a comprehensive discussion with Kristin Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and contributing writer to New York Times Opinion, to unravel the intricacies of polling data and its implications for the upcoming election.
Current Polling Landscape
Ross Douthat sets the stage by highlighting the precarious state of the current polls. The New York Times polling average, considered a gold standard, indicates a near tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump across seven key battleground states. This tight race has remained largely unchanged for weeks, leading to widespread skepticism about poll accuracy.
Ross Douthat [00:57]: "The New York Times polling average... shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied across seven key battleground states."
Understanding Polling: What Polls Can and Cannot Do
Kristin Soltis Anderson clarifies the fundamental purpose and limitations of polls. She emphasizes that polls are not precise predictors but tools to gauge public sentiment and underlying trends.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [04:24]: "A poll is to prediction as your bathroom scale would be to measuring ingredients for a baking recipe... it is not built to be precise enough to tell you that you have exactly the right number of grams of flour."
Anderson explains the significance of the margin of error, typically around ±3.4%, which applies to each individual number within a poll. This margin can lead to substantial variation in results, making definitive predictions unreliable.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [06:17]: "The margin of error applies to each individual number in the poll. So... it could be 49 to 43."
Historical Polling Errors: Lessons from 2016 and 2020
The conversation shifts to the historical inaccuracies of polls, particularly in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Anderson outlines the reasons behind these missteps, such as undercounting specific voter demographics and the unforeseen impact of external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [16:58]: "Luckily, making any kind of prediction... it would be irresponsible."
She details how in 2016, polls failed to account for voters without college degrees—a demographic that significantly supported Trump. In 2020, despite improvements in polling methods, unexpected variables introduced by the pandemic continued to skew results.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [18:29]: "The report came away with a handful of potential reasons why the polls were wrong, but no conclusive single one answer."
The Stability and Closeness of 2024 Polls
Anderson discusses the unprecedented stability and closeness of the current 2024 polling landscape. Unlike previous elections where polling averages fluctuated more noticeably in the final months, the 2024 polls have remained remarkably steady.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [12:43]: "What I did was I looked at all the polling averages, national polls... and what you find is that in the last two months of most elections... the polls move a fair amount."
The minimal movement in the latest polling averages underscores the tension and anxiety among voters, making it challenging to anticipate the election outcome.
Focus Group Insights
Focus groups serve as a crucial complement to quantitative polling by providing qualitative insights into voter behavior and sentiment. Anderson shares anecdotes from recent focus groups that reveal the nuanced motivations behind voters' choices.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [32:52]: "When someone is wondering, how could someone possibly be undecided... talking to someone in a focus group can help unpack that a little."
One notable example involves a 60-year-old voter, Kay, who feels compelled to vote for Harris not out of enthusiasm but to avoid inadvertently supporting Trump.
Kay [32:52]: "I can't do that. I think he's an embarrassment. So I'm going to vote for Kamala Harris, but I'm not going to like it... there's going to be wine involved afterwards."
Another focus group revealed voters who dislike Trump personally but still support him politically, highlighting the complex interplay between personal feelings and political decisions.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [34:25]: "If I go to the doctor, I don't care what my doctor's bedside manner is. I just care if he is good at doing the surgery that I need to keep me alive."
Changing Electorate and Younger Voters
The discussion transitions to the evolving electorate, particularly the growing influence of younger voters, often referred to as "Zoomers" (Generation Z). Anderson explores the factors driving support for Trump among younger demographics, contrasting it with past generations.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [29:24]: "A big one is foreign policy... his message of we're gonna focus on the problems here at home... has resonance with a younger generation."
She attributes this support to a shift in priorities, where younger voters are more concerned with domestic issues and skeptical of America's role in global affairs. Trump's disruptive approach appeals to those who perceive the future pessimistically and seek change.
Trust in Polls and Future Implications
Anderson expresses concern over the declining trust in polls, particularly if significant deviations from polling averages occur. She warns of a "polling trust doom loop," where skepticism leads to disengagement, further reducing polling accuracy.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [35:12]: "What worries me... is when suddenly it becomes the polls are wrong intentionally and you get into conspiracy theory territory."
This erosion of trust not only undermines the polling industry but also impacts public faith in data science and expertise, posing broader challenges for democratic processes.
Conclusion
The episode concludes with Anderson advocating for a balanced understanding of polls, recognizing their limitations while appreciating their value in uncovering deeper voter insights. She emphasizes the importance of maintaining trust in polling methodologies to avoid exacerbating election anxieties and ensuring accurate reflection of voter intentions.
Kristin Soltis Anderson [36:03]: "I would be perfectly happy if... people walked away with a healthier and more skeptical take on what they can learn about the future from a poll conducted in the present."
Hosts Ross Douthat, Michelle Cottle, and Carlos Lozada thank Anderson for her insights, underscoring the episode's central theme: navigating election anxiety through informed interpretation of polling data.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps:
- Ross Douthat [00:57]: "The New York Times polling average... shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump essentially tied across seven key battleground states."
- Kristin Soltis Anderson [04:24]: "A poll is to prediction as your bathroom scale would be to measuring ingredients for a baking recipe..."
- Kristin Soltis Anderson [12:43]: "What I did was I looked at all the polling averages... in most elections... the polls move a fair amount."
- Kristin Soltis Anderson [32:52]: "When someone is wondering, how could someone possibly be undecided... talking to someone in a focus group can help unpack that a little."
- Kristin Soltis Anderson [29:24]: "A big one is foreign policy... his message of we're gonna focus on the problems here at home... has resonance with a younger generation."
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the challenges and nuances of election polling as the 2024 U.S. election approaches.