Podcast Summary: Interesting Times with Ross Douthat

Episode: America’s Very Weird Religious Future
Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Ross Douthat
Guest: Ryan Burge, ordained minister, political scientist, and author of The Nones: Where They Came From, Who They Are, and Where They Are Going
(Timestamps in MM:SS format reference moments in the episode.)

Main Theme & Purpose

Ross Douthat discusses America's shifting religious landscape with Ryan Burge, focusing on whether the long process of secularization is plateauing, signs of religious revival, and the complex, sometimes paradoxical trends shaping religion’s future in the US. The conversation dives into data, cultural shifts, demographic trends, the fate of mainline Protestantism, gender and class divides, political polarization, and the surprising rise of both post-Christian and traditionalist movements.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Secularization: Slowdown and Stasis, Not Revival

• For decades, religious disaffiliation (the "rise of the nones" – atheist, agnostic, or 'nothing in particular') grew rapidly, reaching about 30% of the US population. Since around 2020, this growth has plateaued.
  • [03:13] Ryan Burge: “Now we're in a period of stasis … This is a plateau, not a reversal. This is not a revival.”
• There's a durable "bedrock" of American religiosity, unlike other Western nations.
  • [05:00] Burge: “What we’ve realized is, there’s a core of religiosity in America … I just don’t see a future in America where the share of Americans who are nonreligious rises above 50% ... there's just nothing in the data that says that.”

2. Defining “Nones”

• The 'none' category includes atheists, agnostics, and people who select "nothing in particular" on surveys.
  • [02:07] Burge: “Atheist, agnostic, nothing in particular ... that group has grown from 5% of America in 1972 to about 30% of America today.”

3. Religious Practice: Belief, Behavior, Belonging

• Religious identification has declined faster than attendance, which in turn has fallen more quickly than belief itself.
  • [06:06] Burge: “Behavior is the first one that goes and then usually it follows belonging and then belief is sort of behind all those things ... there’s still this core of belief in America that you don’t see in the rest of the world.”

4. Cyclical History, Not Linear Decline

• America has experienced cycles of revival and decline, not merely linear secularization.
  • [07:22] Burge: “In American religion it is not a straight line ... The vibes around religion have shifted … the new atheists are tired ideas and we should at least reconsider the role of religion ... whether it be cultural Christianity seems to be on the march right now.”

5. Gender Gap Narrowing Among Gen Z

• Historically, women were more religious; however, among Gen Z, women are leaving the church faster, narrowing the gap between genders.
  • [09:01] Burge: “This is mostly a Christian thing that women are more religious than men ... women are still leaving the church at an incredibly rapid rate and men are still leaving, but at a slower rate ... religiosity of Gen Z men and women is probably about the same.”
  • [13:15] Burge: “If you walked into a church and it was 90% Gen Z men and 10% Gen Z women, that's a real problem ... 50-50 is actually probably a good thing if it holds.”

6. Class and Education: Religion as "Sign of Having Your Shit Together"

• Contrary to European trends, church attendance and affiliation in the US correlate with higher education and (upper) middle-class status.
  • [14:10] Burge: “Educated people are actually more likely to go to church than less educated people ... The ideal combination ... is people with a bachelor's degree making between 60 and $100,000 per year.”
  • [18:21] Burge: “As religion remains resilient or becomes more potent in the upper middle class, it becomes sort of ... a sign of like having your shit together, right?”

7. Rise of Post-Christian/Spiritual Practices

• Despite the visibility of astrology, witchcraft, and spirituality, these trends remain numerically small and are more common among the religious than the non-religious.
  • [19:42] Burge: “We did a survey of 12,000 nonreligious people ... only 25% of them said spirituality is very important. So this idea they're replacing religion with spirituality is actually false ... They're replacing religion with nothing.”

8. The Mainline Decline and Its Consequences

• The Protestant mainline (Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian, etc.), once dominant, is in steep decline.
  • [25:39] Burge: “The mainline ... has been in absolute freefall for the last 70 years ... There are tens of thousands of churches ... just holding on for dear life as they slide toward closure.”
• The decline is attributed to the mainline’s successful promotion of liberal values—making itself less distinctive—and resistance to strong tribal signaling.
  • [27:05] Burge: “The Mainline declined because it succeeded so well … the average American adopted all these mainline principles … there was no differentiating factor.”
• Effects: Loss of “centering” religious institutions exacerbates polarization.
  • [38:56] Burge: “The main line used to be the great meeting place, left, right and center, all hung out together. And now all we've got is really conservative religion and no religion at all.”

9. Politics and Polarization: Religion as Tribal Identity

• Evangelical and even some mainline churches have become more politically coded (mostly conservative/Republican among whites), now highly predictive of religiosity.
  • [29:44] Burge: “What religion’s become is another tribal marker of who you vote for on election day as opposed to, you know, what it used to be.”
  • [30:41] Burge: “The number one predictor of whether you’re going to be religious or not ... is your political ideology.”
• Mainline attempts to become “super left wing” in response haven't drawn young people, who simply disaffiliate.
  • [30:48] Burge: “Young people think that, like, I’m a liberal, so I’m going to be irreligious.”
• Catholicism strives for “aggressively apolitical” consistent-ethic leadership, but risks alienating all political camps.
  • [32:41] Burge: “God calls us to be faithful, not successful ... Might as well preach the gospel as best you understand it and let the chips fall.”

10. Belief, Doubt, and Church Retention

• Mainline clergy often “squishier” on doctrine; yet, many parishioners stay connected despite doubts, especially for community.
  • [35:11] Burge: “A lot of people are doubters ... I just think it's more prevalent in the mainline ... throughout our lives that our core beliefs have been malleable ... what keeps us in the pew then? … It’s that social aspect.”
  • [37:16] Burge: “I don’t think there’s a huge number of people who go to church every Sunday who literally believe in none of it. ... Lord, help my unbelief.”

11. Macro-Future of American Religion

• Big stories for 2050:

  • Non-denominational evangelical Christianity’s rise; denominational decline.
    • [40:50] Burge: “The second biggest story is the rise of the non-denominationals ... in 1972 it was 3% ... today it’s 15%.”
  • Non-denominational churches are typically evangelical, anti-institutional, fragmented.
    • [41:51] Burge: “Right now they’re evangelical ... anti-institutional ... we’re going to have a very fragmented Protestant Christianity ... a bunch of non-denominational churches.”
  • Pentecostalism and charismatic worship are ascendant; emotionalism and supernaturalism become more normalized compared to older, more intellectualized mainline or Catholic forms.
    • [44:54] Burge: “What is the common thread that runs through religious growth ... is Pentecostalism ... charismatic worship ... this emotionalism is actually a predominant factor.”

• Demographics and Diversity:

  • Evangelical churches, especially non-denominationals, now attract more diverse congregations; immigration remains a vital source for Catholic growth.
  • Assimilation dynamics: second-generation immigrants may drift from Catholicism to popular evangelical churches.
    • [48:21] Burge: “One way that non-denoms have done well is by creating diverse congregations ... The Catholic Church ... would not be what it would be without immigration.”

12. Smaller Groups and Future Outliers

• Non-Christian religions (Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism) remain small and geographically clustered; no near-term “Judaism-like” influence at national level.
  • [50:01] Burge: “Islam is going to have some influence in some pockets ... but most certainly not in a macro level ... geography ... puts a ceiling on their ability to influence ...”
• Amish projected to grow, though unlikely to sustain exponential growth due to group dynamics.
  • [51:26] Burge: “I would bet on continued Amish growth, but not exponential Amish growth ... harder to maintain its cohesion like it had before.”

13. “Weird” Futures and Outliers

• The rise of “trad Caths” (traditionalist Catholics, often young, favoring pre-Vatican II rituals and politics) could become a powerful, vocal minority.
  • [53:15] Burge: “I think it’s the rise of the tradcath ... people who reject Vatican II ... there’s actually an argument to be made that that might be the future of Catholicism ... those families don’t practice birth control and they have lots and lots of kids.”
• Aggressive church planting by mainline denominations as a possible comeback strategy.
  • [55:53] Burge: “The Episcopalians, because of their institutional heft ... are going to last for a very long time ... United Methodists ... will persist ... There’s certainly not going to be seven sisters [of mainline Protestantism] in 50 years.”

14. Technology, the Internet, and Religion

• Internet and online church have proven poor substitutes for in-person community or religious formation.
  • [58:04] Burge: “Online church does not do any of the positive things that we thought in person church. ... Even among young people ... two thirds ... prefer attending in person … showing up on an average Sunday ... is transformational and will be for all of human history, as far as I can tell.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• [18:21] Burge: “As religion remains resilient or becomes more potent in the upper middle class, it becomes, pardon my language, a sign of like, having your shit together, right?”
• [53:15] Burge: “TradCaths ... might actually be the future of Catholicism in America because those families don’t practice birth control and they have lots and lots of kids.”
• [44:54] Burge: “What is the common thread that runs through religious growth, not just in America but across the world, is Pentecostalism.”
• [27:05] Burge (on mainline decline): “It got the average American to accept their worldview … And when the average American adopted all these mainline principles, there was no differentiating factor ... that's why evangelicalism has done so well ... it's clearly stood apart from the rest of the culture ...”
• [32:41] Burge: “God calls us to be faithful, not successful.”
• [38:56] Burge: “The main line used to be the great meeting place, left, right and center, all hung out together. And now all we've got is really conservative religion and no religion at all.”
• [58:04] Burge: “No matter how much we try to remake [religion] with technology and AI and the Internet, showing up on an average Sunday ... is transformational and will be for all of human history.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:03–05:42: Introduction, “nones,” and secularization plateau
• 05:43–08:42: Belief, behavior, belonging; cyclical religious history
• 08:43–13:39: Gender shifts in religious affiliation, Gen Z trends
• 13:40–18:34: Class, education, and religion
• 18:35–21:16: Post-Christian spirituality, “spiritual but not religious” myth
• 21:17–28:20: Mainline Protestant decline, consequences and causes
• 28:21–38:56: Religion and political polarization, belief versus belonging, community effects
• 38:57–50:31: Predictions for 2050, rise of non-denominationals, charismatic/Pentecostal growth
• 50:32–56:27: Outlier groups (Amish, tradCaths), mainline comeback strategies
• 56:28–58:04: Internet, online religion, technology’s limits

Concluding Thoughts

The episode paints a nuanced picture of America’s religious future—stable but fragmented, resistant to further secularization yet shaped by new forms of belief, practice, and social identity. Tribalization, emotional worship, and persistent but evolving institutions will likely define the American religious scene in the coming generation. Despite speculation about digital religion or new spiritualities, face-to-face community and longstanding rituals remain stubbornly resilient.

This summary covers the core substance of the interview, key trends, representative quotes, and the speakers’ own language and tone, while providing thematic organization and signposts for further exploration of the episode’s rich discussion.