Beyond Trump Vs. Harris: These Races Will Shape Our Future

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Beyond Trump Vs. Harris: These Races Will Shape Our Future"

Matter of Opinion, hosted by Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada, delves into the critical congressional races influencing the future of American politics beyond the high-profile presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Released on October 25, 2024, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of key House and Senate races, exploring their potential impact on the legislative landscape and national agenda.

---

1. Introduction

The hosts kick off the discussion by acknowledging the multitude of elections occurring concurrently with the presidential race. Carlos Lozada sets the stage by emphasizing the importance of congressional control in determining the effectiveness of the next administration:

“The success of the next president will depend in significant part on who controls the House and the Senate.”
(01:51)

2. Overview of 2024 Congressional Races

Michelle Cottle paints a broad picture of the stakes involved in the congressional elections. She highlighted the precarious situation Democrats face in reclaiming the House:

“The Democrats need four seats to flip the House back to their control.”
(04:06)

Ross Douthat adds a touch of humor while acknowledging the gravity of the situation:

“If you're not up for a Trump presidency... think about that and ponder it for a minute.”
(02:42)

3. Key Senate Races

a. Montana: Tester vs. Sheehy

Montana's Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy is spotlighted as one of the most vulnerable seats for Democrats. Michelle Cottle provides a comprehensive analysis of Tester's longstanding resilience in a predominantly red state:

“Tester has long defied the political trends and survived as a Democrat in a very red state because Montana went for Trump by 16 points.”
(09:12)

The discussion delves into the shifting demographics of Montana, exacerbated by an influx of wealthy transplants from West Coast states, leading to rising housing costs and cultural changes. Tester’s strategy of distancing himself from national Democratic leadership and positioning himself as a quintessential Montanan resonates with local voters. However, his progressive stances on issues like trans rights, influenced by national party messages, may not align with Montana's evolving electorate.

Ross Douthat predicts Tester's potential loss, attributing it to the changing political and demographic landscape:

“I think Tester is going to lose this time.”
(12:06)

b. Nebraska: Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osmos

Shifting focus to Nebraska, Ross Douthat introduces the unique scenario of an independent candidate, Dan Osmos, challenging Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osmos, portrayed as a blue-collar populist, presents a formidable yet unlikely threat to Fischer in a reliably Republican state. The hosts discuss the potential impact of Osmos's campaign dynamics, noting his commitment to not caucus with either party—a rare stance in modern politics.

Michelle Cottle remarks on Osmos's unconventional approach:

“He is running a surprisingly competitive campaign against the Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fischer.”
(17:17)

Ross Douthat speculates on the sustainability of Osmos's independence, suggesting that while his initial campaign might gain traction, long-term viability in a polarized environment remains doubtful.

c. Maryland: Larry Hogan vs. Angela Brooks

In Maryland, former Governor Larry Hogan, a Republican known for his moderate and independent stance, faces off against Democrat Angela Brooks. Carlos Lozada draws parallels between Hogan's campaign and the broader trend of moderate Republicans seeking broader appeal in blue states:

“Larry Hogan is the kind of Republican I want in the Senate.”
(20:15)

Despite Hogan's popularity and bipartisan appeal, the Democratic advantage in Maryland makes Brooks the likely victor. The discussion highlights the tension between party loyalty and individual candidate appeal, emphasizing the strategic nuances of Hogan's potential Senate bid.

4. Ballot Measures and Their Impact

Michelle Cottle explores the role of ballot measures, particularly focusing on abortion rights in Montana. She explains how these measures serve as nonpartisan tools to engage voters beyond traditional party lines:

“Organizers do not mention party when they go door to door.”
(14:15)

This approach aims to garner support from a broader spectrum of voters, including those disillusioned with partisan politics. However, Cottle notes the complexity of linking ballot measure outcomes directly to congressional race results, suggesting that while they can influence voter turnout, their effect on down-ballot races is marginal.

5. Implications for National Politics

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of congressional control. Michelle Cottle asserts the benefits of a divided government:

“A lot of the time... I tend to think with the nation, this divided government is not a bad thing because it slows one party's agenda down.”
(04:52)

Ross Douthat and Carlos Lozada discuss potential policy outcomes based on various congressional scenarios, including the passage of tax cuts, immigration reforms, and the use of executive orders. The hosts underscore the critical role of the Senate in shaping the legislative agenda and the potential for political gridlock or cooperation depending on party control.

6. Executive vs. Legislative Power

Carlos Lozada raises concerns about the increasing power of the executive branch, especially in areas like immigration where substantive changes often occur through executive actions rather than legislative processes:

“The president tends to make me very nervous, because the president has a lot of leeway... can cause a lot of trouble.”
(32:54)

Michelle Cottle echoes these concerns, emphasizing the risks associated with an empowered executive, particularly in foreign policy and immigration, highlighting the diminishing influence of Congress in these areas.

7. Concluding Thoughts

As the episode nears its end, the hosts reflect on the strategic chess game unfolding in the 2024 elections. They emphasize the unpredictability of election outcomes and the myriad factors that will shape the political landscape in the coming years. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of presidential and congressional races and the profound impact they collectively have on the nation's trajectory.

Ross Douthat concludes with a thought-provoking statement on policy battles, particularly the contentious debate over the filibuster:

“The Democrats have pushed a lot of chips onto the table in the idea of getting rid of the filibuster.”
(31:11)

Michelle Cottle and Carlos Lozada add their perspectives on potential legislative strategies and the future of bipartisan cooperation, leaving listeners with a nuanced understanding of the stakes involved in the upcoming elections.

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Notable Quotes:

• Carlos Lozada (01:51): “The success of the next president will depend in significant part on who controls the House and the Senate.”
• Michelle Cottle (04:06): “The Democrats need four seats to flip the House back to their control.”
• Michelle Cottle (09:12): “Tester has long defied the political trends and survived as a Democrat in a very red state because Montana went for Trump by 16 points.”
• Ross Douthat (12:06): “I think Tester is going to lose this time.”
• Michelle Cottle (14:15): “Organizers do not mention party when they go door to door.”
• Michelle Cottle (04:52): “A lot of the time... I tend to think with the nation, this divided government is not a bad thing because it slows one party's agenda down.”
• Carlos Lozada (32:54): “The president tends to make me very nervous, because the president has a lot of leeway... can cause a lot of trouble.”

---

This comprehensive analysis by Matter of Opinion offers listeners a deep dive into the pivotal races shaping the American political landscape beyond the presidential election, highlighting the intricate dynamics of congressional control and its far-reaching implications.

Transcript

[US Bank]

This podcast is supported by US Bank. At US bank, when they say they're in it with you, they mean it. Not just for the good stuff, the grand openings and celebrations, although those are pretty great, but for all the hard work it took to get there. Because together they're proving day in and day out that there is nothing as powerful as the power of us. Visit us bank.com to get started today. = housing lender member FDIC no, I.

[Ross Douthat]

Was recording the audio version of my fantasy novel, Michelle Cottle.

[Michelle Cottle]

This is.

[Carlos Rosado]

Okay. I think we should have a bonus episode about Ross fantasy novel.

[Ross Douthat]

No. Yes, we can do a bonus. I will, in all seriousness, happily do a bonus episode about the fantasy novel.

[Carlos Rosado]

Oh, happily, of course you will. You're selling books from New York Times Opinion. I'm Carlos Rosada.

[Michelle Cottle]

Michelle I'm Michelle Cottle.

[Ross Douthat]

And I'm Ross Douthat.

[Carlos Rosado]

And this is matter of opinion, where thoughts are allowed and a clear. So I learned something this week when I was reading the papers and watching the news, and that is that it turns out there are a lot of other elections happening in early November besides Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

[Michelle Cottle]

Were you guys aware I had heard something.

[Ross Douthat]

Kazakhstan has parliamentary elections. Is that what we're talking about?

[Carlos Rosado]

What's your over under there?

[Ross Douthat]

The Cambodian state legislatures? Yes. Right.

[Michelle Cottle]

I'm not amused by your pretend ignorance.

[Carlos Rosado]

Pretend?

[Michelle Cottle]

This is important.

[Carlos Rosado]

So if you look back on our prior conversations, as I often do, this is what I do. I just listen to past matters of opinion. Is it matters of opinion or matter of opinions?

[Ross Douthat]

It's matters of opinion. Clearly.

[Carlos Rosado]

We have spent so much time talking about the presidential contest, about Trump and Harris and Vance and Walsh. But of course, the success of the next president will depend in significant part on who controls the House and the Senate. So with just a few days left before this election, on November 5th, I want your help. I want us to zoom in on what's happening in a few key House and Senate races and also the races that we may be focused on ourselves as voters. And I hope we can work our way to thinking about how that future Congress, whatever it looks like, can shape the agenda and the power of the next president. So before we dive into specific races, let's just paint a quick picture of what's at stake broadly in the congressional election. So someone give me that 30,000 foot view here.

[Michelle Cottle]

Okay. Well, if you want to really make yourself panic, if you're not up for a Trump presidency, think about a Trump presidency where, as is often the case, almost always the case in modern Politics. His party controls both chambers of Congress and has an unimpeded MAGA Runway to just do whatever he wants. So just dig into that and ponder it for a minute.

[Ross Douthat]

I think Carlos was asking for kind of like a neutral description, like how many Senate states are possible.

[Carlos Rosado]

That's not possible.

[Ross Douthat]

You're going straight to, like, dark MAGA apocalypse.

[Michelle Cottle]

I mean, we can talk about the numbers.

[Ross Douthat]

Elon Musk is actually going to be elected to the Senate from six separate states. They've changed the rules just so you're prepared.

[Michelle Cottle]

There's money in.

[Ross Douthat]

There's going to be a robovan. A robovan in every pot.

[Carlos Rosado]

All right, all right, all right. The one thing I know is that the entire House is up because it always is.

[Ross Douthat]

It always is. Yep.

[Carlos Rosado]

And about a third of the Senate.

[Michelle Cottle]

The House is up, and the Democrats need four seats to flip the House back to their control. And obviously, the Senate is, you know, tighter than a hippo in Spanx. It is a bloody battle. The Republicans.

[Carlos Rosado]

Is that a thing or is that a caudalism?

[Michelle Cottle]

I like to be visual. I like people to visualize how scary this is.

[Carlos Rosado]

Right. A hippo in spanx.

[Michelle Cottle]

The Republicans are favored to take the Senate because of who's on the map and who's returned retiring. And so the big backstop to this would be if Democrats won back the House, and then you would have at least one chamber. I like divided government. A lot of the time, you know, people talk about how much they hate not being able to get stuff through. I tend to think with the nation, this divided, divided government is not a bad thing because it slows one party's agenda down. I know that is not a popular sentiment, but there you have it. So, anyway, we're talking about Democrats needing to grab four seats to take back the House or Republicans having to hold on by the skin of their teeth. And then the Republicans are favored to take back a basically evenly divided Senate.

[Ross Douthat]

Right. With the key races for those purposes being Montana, where right now it looks like John Tester, who has survived many past Senate campaigns, the populist Democrat farmer senator. He seems like he's in trouble. Ohio Democrats have been hoping that Sherrod Brown would hang on.

[Michelle Cottle]

There's a toss up in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona.

[Ross Douthat]

Yeah, the Midwestern states are where if the Republicans have a really good night, it will be because they were unexpectedly competitive in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I think everyone pretty much assumes that Kari Lake is going down to defeat in Arizona. That seems like less of a state to watch right now, though. Of course, you never know. And finally, the Democrats have the great dream of unseating Ted Cruz in Texas.

[Michelle Cottle]

Which is where I am this week.

[Ross Douthat]

All right.

[Michelle Cottle]

I did some early voting with Ted. We did. We hit the community center. It was magic. Not gonna lie.

[Carlos Rosado]

So basically it looks like it's a coin toss. Coin toss is the metaphor of choice for a close election. Maybe there's some other one. But it's a coin toss in the House. And then the Republicans look perhaps more favorable in the Senate, especially with Joe Manchin leaving. You know, it's assumed West Virginia's a state that will go their way.

[Michelle Cottle]

I'm not even sure Democrats are really contesting yet.

[Ross Douthat]

No.

[Carlos Rosado]

And so really they just need to flip one Senate seat. Or it can be split and Vice President J.D. vance can split all the differences.

[Michelle Cottle]

Exactly right.

[Ross Douthat]

The reasonable thing to assume is that Republicans will have a razor thin Senate majority when the knight's voting is over.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah. It could be more than the razor thumb.

[Michelle Cottle]

If the night goes well for them, they could wind up with more than that.

[Ross Douthat]

Yes.

[Michelle Cottle]

Before I was in Texas, I was in Montana with testers, folks. And it is a anxiety inducing scene if you're a Democrat.

[Carlos Rosado]

So Michelle, let's go in that direction. I don't mean anxiety. I mean follow you and your travels.

[Ross Douthat]

Because Michelle has been doing real reporting.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah. She is the one intrepid reporter here on the trail. Matter of opinion. So tell us from where have you been filing expense reports?

[Michelle Cottle]

Well, I did enjoy Bozeman. Had not been to Montana. And it is as advertised, Yellowstone. Ready. Fabulous.

[Ross Douthat]

Bozeman is like a. It's like a colony of Los Angeles. Though at this point it's. It's kind of.

[Michelle Cottle]

I mean, I was in Missoula. I was in Great Falls.

[Ross Douthat]

Okay. All right. That's. That's legitimate.

[Carlos Rosado]

Oh, that's not.

[Ross Douthat]

Bozeman is real.

[Carlos Rosado]

Bozeman's not real Montana. 100. I'm getting a Sarah Palin vibe here.

[Ross Douthat]

100 we drove. No, we. Look, I know all about Montana because I drove through it in a minivan with my.

[Carlos Rosado]

Then I know about it because I drove through it. That's great.

[Ross Douthat]

Bos Angeles. It's like rich, rich people from California.

[Carlos Rosado]

Which is exactly what you wrote about Michelle when you were looking at this tester. She race. So tell us a little bit about not just the stakes, which we understand control of the Senate. But you know, what are the issues that are coming to the fore in that race. One of which of course is who is a real montanen.

[Michelle Cottle]

That is kind of what Tester in particular has made the centerpiece of his campaign because the state, especially in the pandemic year, got this huge influx of out of staters moving there and kind of changing the culture because a lot of these folks were very wealthy West Coasters moving in. So it's driven up costs, especially housing costs. And so you have this very interesting dynamic where what Republicans usually talk about is migrants coming in from poor foreign countries and changing the culture and dynamics and taking jobs and resources. You have something similar as a political theme in Montana, except it's the Democrat doing it. It's John Tester doing it, and his boogeyman is rich out of staters, which happened to include his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, who moved in like a decade ago and started a couple businesses. But what you have is Tester has long defied the political trends and survived as a Democrat in a very red state because Montana went for Trump by 16 points.

[Carlos Rosado]

So this would be his fourth term, right, Testern?

[Michelle Cottle]

This would be his fourth term.

[Carlos Rosado]

Okay.

[Michelle Cottle]

The way he's done this is by pitching himself as Mr. Montana. He keeps a very, very big distance between himself and the national leadership of the Democratic Party. And he basically talks about he's a third generation dirt farmer whose family's been there for, you know, a jillion years. And he still, you know, he does ads on tractors and four wheelers, which used to play really well in the state. But as the politics have gotten nationalized, even in Senate and House races, you tend to see more partisan tribalism. And with all of these newcomers coming into the state, there's some question about whether or not you've been there for 60 years or 100 years matters as much because a huge number of Montanans now are transplants. And so you take all that and you mix it up and it looks like Tester, the bill has come due. Like the demographics aren't the same, the political scene isn't the same, and he is the most vulnerable Senate member by far that everybody's looking at. And so much national money has gone into this race trying to tie him to the kind of very progressive wing of his party. They're talking a lot about trans rights, which is not a huge local drama in Montana, except that it's playing into the national party messages.

[Ross Douthat]

Yeah, it's interesting, Michelle. Right. The way that Tester has sustained himself as a Democrat with a, you know, a fairly liberal voting record. Not the most liberal, but he hasn't been a Joe Manchin figure.

[Michelle Cottle]

Yeah, he's not Joe Manchin he's been.

[Ross Douthat]

Much more sort of affect Persona, tiller of the earth kind of schtick. He's missing fingers, right?

[Michelle Cottle]

Three.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yep.

[Michelle Cottle]

Three fingers.

[Ross Douthat]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Michelle Cottle]

From a like lunch meat accident.

[Ross Douthat]

But so he's sort of sold himself basically as the non rich version of Kevin Costner in Yellowstone, our favorite show about Montana.

[Carlos Rosado]

Has he sold himself as that or.

[Michelle Cottle]

Is he that he's the non rich, non hot version? Does that count?

[Ross Douthat]

I think by the. Whoa, hey, let's not. I think by the time you've been a U.S. senator for three terms, you're no longer just a poor dirt farmer, no matter what you say. But that I don't want to be cynical.

[Michelle Cottle]

You're so cynical.

[Ross Douthat]

But yeah, I mean, fine, he's. It's an interesting dynamic to be the liberal Democrat presenting yourself as the scourge of outsiders coming to take over Montana because it's quite true that there's a lot of Republican money that has fled California for Idaho and Montana over the last 10 or 15 years. And the transformation of those states is itself just sort of a fascinating story in American life, accelerated clearly by the pandemic. Covid and sort of people migrating. Yeah. But yes, as someone who hasn't reported there, I agree that I think Tester is going to lose this time.

[Carlos Rosado]

So Michelle, Montana is one of several states with an abortion measure on the ballot as well this November. And you wrote about that when you were writing about this particular race, but you were saying that somehow the discussion of abortion rights politically was playing in kind of this nonpartisan sort of way. That was intriguing to me. How does. Tell us. Tell us about that.

[Michelle Cottle]

So I've been looking at ballot measures since Kansas did the first one after Roe v. Bay was falling. One of the things that the people who organize these ballot measures stress to you is that you have to be very careful in red states not to pitch this as a partisan issue. So as much as the Democratic Party and its candidates really want these ballot measures to drive pro choice voters to the polls, who are going to then maybe be the folks who are going to vote for Democratic candid candidates, it doesn't always work that way. Especially in red states. The organizers do not mention party when they go door to door. So like if you were canvassing for this measure in Montana, you do not then go, john Tester is a pro choice candidate because in order to pass these things you have to have non Democratic voters. So they did this in Kansas. They've done similar things in other states that are redder than average and so tester is very much attaching himself to the abortion issue, but in order to get it on the ballot they had to collect all these signatures. And it was like a historic number of people signed this measure to get it before voters. In order for that to have happened, it had to have been more than Democrats signing those petitions. So even if the abortion measure wins in Montana, tester is still expected to go down. On the other hand, if he does somehow pull it out, people on the Democratic side are like it will be in part because of this measure driving more Democrats to the polls.

[Ross Douthat]

Yeah, I mean I've wondered throughout the referendum process just how much does this actually help Democrats win elections?

[Michelle Cottle]

Only on the margins is what they say.

[Carlos Rosado]

And fundraising probably.

[Ross Douthat]

Oh yes, but if your tester Montana is a right leaning state, but it's one of the most libertarian right leaning states. Perfect. A perfect place I would assume as Republican leaning states go to run a pro choice ballot measure. But precisely because of that, it's harder for tester to say here, vote for me because you need me in Washington to make sure that abortion stays legal in Montana. If Montana's voters are being told guess what, all you have to do to keep abortion legal in Montana is vote in this ballot initiative. It seems totally plausible that that's a difficulty for Democrats. Right. That they're trying to make a national case. But meanwhile, if they're winning the state ballot measures, the urgency of that national case for pro choice voters is just going to feel a lot weaker.

[Michelle Cottle]

And for people for whom this is the primary issue, they're not willing to risk having the measure fail on the off chance that they could help testers. So I talked to this fantastic 70 year old lifelong conservative Republican who is so ticked off about her party's position on abortion that she is like a super volunteer for this ballot measure. She is out there ringing doorbells, gathering signatures, but she will not even talk about party. She refuses to even say who she's voting for this year because she just wants it to be so outside the realm of party fights.

[Carlos Rosado]

So let's temporarily leave Big sky country. Ross, is there a particular race anywhere in the country that you are just fixated on?

[Ross Douthat]

I do think that one of the most interesting ones is the race we haven't mentioned yet, which is the Nebraska Senate race.

[Michelle Cottle]

Oh yes.

[Ross Douthat]

Where in lieu of having a competitive Democrat there is an independent candidate, Dan Osborne, who is in certain ways like Tester, but more so an extremely sort of blue collar populist figure, but also running a slightly more I would Say Mansion like campaign in terms of presenting himself as a real moderate on the issues, not someone who's just going to be a down the line vote for liberal priorities. And he's running a surprisingly competitive campaign against the Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fischer, who is a sort of, you know, undistinguished, not particularly notable Republican senator in a reliably Republican state. I don't think Osborne is likely to win. I think what often happens with these kind of candidates is they sort of fly under the radar for a while. Nobody notices them, nobody attacks them very much. They get surprisingly strong polling results and then they get associated with national politics and they fall short. That's my expectation here. But it is a very interesting model for essentially what you could call not even Democrats, non Republicans in red states.

[Michelle Cottle]

And the independent has said he wouldn't caucus with either party, which is very unusual. That does not happen. I don't think that would hold, but it's a fascinating promise.

[Ross Douthat]

Well, I think it would have to hold if he won and wanted to win reelection. I think if you had a guy who won as an independent in Nebraska and started caucusing with the Democrats, he might as well just throw his reelection ball.

[Michelle Cottle]

I mean maybe it is hard to not caucus with those parties. Like you don't get any perks.

[Ross Douthat]

Well, right, well that's the trade off. But I mean the reality is in those states the national Democratic brand is so bad, so toxic. But there are also still voters who don't like the Republican Party. Right. And are sort of open to an alternative. And you know, this is where people had kicked around the idea of Joe Manchin plus Mitt Romney third party just for the Senate alliance. Obviously nothing came of that. But like it's an interesting model to try and run as a genuine independent, not just as a sort of Democrat light. And it has parallels to the efforts of moderate Republicans to win in deep blue states like your home state of Maryland, Carlos, where you know an interesting question. Larry Hogan, right. The incredibly popular Republican governor of Maryland is running.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah.

[Michelle Cottle]

Have you been watching this, Carlos? A ton. Because I did some reporting with both those candidates and I want to hear your take.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah, I mean, so I live in the Maryland suburbs of Washington D.C. and this Senate race I think speaks to a similar idea that you encountered in Montana, Michelle, about the national overpowering the local. So we have former two term governor Larry Hogan, a Republican running against Angela, also Brooks, a Democrat, she's the county executive here and former state's attorney in Prince George's County. Hogan was a Very popular two term governor here. People in Maryland like that. He was this kind of independent minded Republican who would speak out against Trump when he felt it was necessary. A nice bit of trivia, of course, is that his father, Lawrence Hogan, was a member of Congress from Maryland and the only Republican in the House Judiciary Committee to vote for all three articles of impeachment against Nixon. So there's some family history there about kind of bucking your own party. Now he's the kind of Republican who can win in a blue state like Maryland. But of course, putting Hogan in the Senate would help give Republicans a majority. So there's this sort of reluctance, not really reluctance about also Brooks, who has a healthy lead in the polls.

[Ross Douthat]

Well, she's going to win.

[Michelle Cottle]

Of course she's going to win. Because Maryland's like the bluest state in the fricking country which had a two.

[Carlos Rosado]

Term Republican governor from 2014 to 2022.

[Michelle Cottle]

And they still love him. Like I talked to voters who are like, I love him, but I can't vote for him for Senate.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah, no, that's, that's the story. I mean, you literally see the ads. The ads are like, you know, I voted for Larry Hogan twice. Larry Hogan was a good governor, but he can't be in the Senate.

[Michelle Cottle]

You know, it's like bus tour is named either. I can't remember is it protecting or defending our majority. It has nothing to do with what she wants to do or who she is.

[Carlos Rosado]

For me, like, Larry Hogan's the kind of Republican I want in the Senate. I want more Republicans like Larry Hogan to exist. But a lot of the case has been about the dangers not of Larry Hogan himself, but about Republicans controlling the Senate. So that's what makes this sort of a very interesting race.

[Ross Douthat]

But you're, as a Maryland voter, Carlos, since as we've just said, there's a very good chance Republicans will control the Senate no matter what, isn't it in then your interests as a, you know, conflicted centrist to have some voices in the Republican Senate, A conflict, caucus meetings, as a, Well, I don't know, maybe, you know, you're, you're k. Your cagey. Maybe you're a communist. Who can say?

[Michelle Cottle]

That's Hogan's pitch, Ross.

[Ross Douthat]

That's Hogan's pitch. Right. I'm saying I think, you know, for the coveted Carlos vote, you should think about that. Don't you want him in the room where it happens if there's a Republican?

[Carlos Rosado]

I just said he's the kind of Republican.

[Ross Douthat]

Exactly. Well, there you go.

[Michelle Cottle]

Yeah, if you listen to him on the trail, that's exactly what he says. He's like, how much better will it be with me in the room?

[Ross Douthat]

I do think, though, that this issue about caucusing with a party, like, to get whether it's sort of non Republicans in deep red states or non Democrats in deep blue states, you would need some vehicle for people to operate in the Senate without just caucusing with one party or the other. And I think, you know, Hogan, probably he would lose some Trumpy Republican votes if he said he wouldn't caucus with the gop. But at some point, if you wanted more of those figures, you would need some way for people to credibly say, look, if you elect me, I'm not giving the Republicans or the Democrats the majority. I'm not that 50th or 51st vote. You can vote for me just as myself. That doesn't happen at the moment for good reasons, but that would be what you would need.

[Michelle Cottle]

I think you'd have to take down the team pressure, which is what the Senate runs on. It's not just about the individual. It is a team game, and you'd have to find a way to take that away.

[Ross Douthat]

And as you said, you don't get any power and influence.

[Michelle Cottle]

You don't get committee preference.

[Ross Douthat]

All you have is a vote, and that's where you. If you had four people, then you could say, look, you have to give us something because we're the swing block. Right? We need some version of that. We're our own team.

[Michelle Cottle]

Dang it.

[Ross Douthat]

Anyway, not gonna happen. But an interesting scenario.

[Carlos Rosado]

All right, well, let us take a quick break here. When we come back, let's get into how much all these down ballot races can and will change the national outlook, depending on who wins the White House. So stay with.

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[Carlos Rosado]

And we're back after our down ballot discussion. It seems like it is more likely that Republicans can retain control of the legislative branch. So, Michelle, what is it that they want to do with it?

[Michelle Cottle]

Well, unsurprisingly, they feel like they wasted the last time they had unified control for a couple of years. And so like Ski Infrastructure week, it's infrastructure. Steve Scalise, the current majority leader, has been talking to reporters and he has said that that's not going to happen again. So they're getting their ducks in a row. And one of the things that he is really hot for is this being the Republican Party cutting some taxes. He wants to cut that corporate tax rate. You know, Trump has basically spent the last few weeks of this campaign promising to cut taxes on damn near everybody. We may be the last people he's not cutting taxes on. But he wants no tax on.

[Carlos Rosado]

Fill in the blank.

[Michelle Cottle]

He wants no tax on tips. He wants you overtime taxes cut, car loan taxes cut, Social Security taxes cut. And this suits a Republican House just fine. Probably the way to make up any kind of revenue shortage will be just to drill, baby, drill, pass a lot of policies that would, you know, get them more oil and gas money, repeal the electric vehicle tax credit. Now, of course, Trump being Trump, he's going to do what he wants to do and we'll just see what he wants to focus on. You know, maybe he'll be rounding up immigrants first or whatever. We'll just have to wait. But the tax piece of it has the House Republican conference. Their mouth is watering.

[Ross Douthat]

I mean, you mentioned the corporate tax, right? I mean, I think there's a big question, maybe more of a question than usual about what a Republican tax cut would actually look like. Because first, the original Trump tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2025. So there are Republicans, I think, who will be sort of eager to basically just vote to extend the Trump tax cuts and declare that is their great tax cutting victory, which means they don't even have to get into worrying about deficit issues and so on. They just declare themselves tax cutters by keeping the baseline.

[Michelle Cottle]

But that's not what Trump has promised. So it depends.

[Ross Douthat]

Well, Trump has promised. Well, okay, right. So then Trump has promised everything.

[Michelle Cottle]

Everything.

[Ross Douthat]

If he's elected, he'll have the corporate tax cut, the further corporate tax cut faction, he'll have the JD Vance faction that wants to do a big family friendly tax cut. And then he has his grab bag of, you know, the salt tax cap.

[Michelle Cottle]

That sort of thing.

[Ross Douthat]

That's right, he promised.

[Michelle Cottle]

They pushed that through last time he was president, but now he's like, oh, just kidding, let's take that back.

[Ross Douthat]

Right. But that's one that all the Republican tax wonks, such as they are, will rebel against. That's their, one of their proudest achievements.

[Michelle Cottle]

That's true. But then the moderates in those suburban districts are going to have, you know, they're a little hissy fit.

[Ross Douthat]

Right. I'm just saying that if I think there's an easy Republican tax scenario, which is just sticking with the original Trump tax cuts and adding something around the margins, but then if you're trying to do something beyond that, you're going to get into a really interesting battle royale of different GOP factions. Corporate tax cuts, family tax cuts, salt taxes on tips, you name it. And I don't, I don't have, honestly have any idea how that fight turns out.

[Michelle Cottle]

Well, it depends on how big the margins are. Right. Like if the Republicans do not maintain control of the House, this is a moot point.

[Ross Douthat]

Right.

[Michelle Cottle]

There's so many X factors, so many variables that you can't say kind of exactly what will happen. You just know what they want to do and what they're hoping to do and what they're going ahead and planning for in case. Because they want to be ready. They do not want to waste their opportunity.

[Carlos Rosado]

So the implication of this conversation so far is Republican control of the House and Senate and Trump in the White House. How does this happen if Kamala Harris wins the White House?

[Ross Douthat]

I mean, I think. Well, I'm curious what Michelle thinks. I think if Harris wins the White House and Republicans hold Congress, I mean, we're talking about the smallest of all small ball policy, except that there will be again a big knockdown, drag out, scrap about the Trump tax cuts. This is sort of the issue that neither campaign really wants to talk about that much. But if it's Harris in the White House, she's going to be negotiating with Republicans in the Senate over what that tax cut extension looks like. And that's basically going to be the whole fiscal argument probably for the first couple of years.

[Michelle Cottle]

Well, if Harris winds up winning the White House, the odds are that the Democrats wind up taking the House. So you still have divided government. But it looks more manageable in terms of at least getting her agenda discussed. I mean, if Republicans have both chambers of Congress and she's in the White House, you're never even going to have her policies taken up for serious discussion. It's just not going to happen.

[Ross Douthat]

Right. I mean, we should also entertain scenario where, you know, big surprises happen. Maybe the, you know, the independent wins in Nebraska, Brown holds on in Ohio, the polls are wrong and Ted Cruz goes down in Texas. Right. And Democrats have a, let's say it's a 50, 50 Senate. I think most people assume, maybe wrongly, but assume that if Republicans are in charge, even though Donald Trump will tell them that he wants to get rid of the filibuster, they will not get rid of the filibuster, that nobody wants to get rid of the filibuster on a 5,149 vote. What getting rid of the filibuster does is it exposes swing state politicians to votes they don't want to take. The Democrats, though, have pushed a lot of chips onto the table in the idea of getting rid of the filibuster. And Harris herself has said we could get rid of the filibuster to pat, pass, you know, national abortion legislation. So that I think again, in the, I think unlikely world where Democrats have, you know, a 50, 50 Senate with Vice President Walsh casting the deciding vote, there's going to be a lot of frenzy on the left and center left about what happens to the filibuster.

[Michelle Cottle]

True, but they don't even need those. If you're talking about tax cuts or anything that has to do with the strict budget, the Democrats can do that on a straight majority.

[Ross Douthat]

Yes, but abortion, voting rights, like there's a long list of things that part of the party would like to do.

[Michelle Cottle]

And both Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are gone and they were the two who were holding up the train on the Democratic side, much to Democrats fury. And so the question is, what does it look like?

[Ross Douthat]

Or to the secret satisfaction of Democratic senators who also didn't want to get rid of the filibuster but didn't want to say.

[Michelle Cottle]

So now you're just playing four dimensional chess, Ross. It's so strategic.

[Carlos Rosado]

So I have a question here. That's that sort of comes out of all this. Whose agenda, Trump or Harris is more dependent on control of Congress. Like you need Congress for tax cuts but not for like tariffs. When Harris talks about the stuff she wants to do, you know, she always ends like, you know, send me the bill to codify Roe v. Wade and I'll proudly sign it into law. Right. Like, you know, send me that border security bill and I'll proudly sign it into law. If you have divided government, is it just going to be a lot of emphasis on executive orders and a lot of rhetoric around, around bills that will never become law?

[Ross Douthat]

I think for both of them, Trump more so because it's his signature issue. But for both of them, immigration is going to be the issue where there'll just be a lot of executive action or inaction. Right. And basically a lot of debate and a lot of court cases about the limits of executive authority around immigration. I mean, I think Trump, you know, in his first term, he didn't really work that hard to pass sweeping immigration legislation. He just did most of the stuff using executive power. Maybe that's different if they get a big Senate majority. But I think the action on immigration may be somewhat independent of partisan control. Everything else, I mean, we haven't talked, we're not talking about foreign policy, but everything else domestically, you know, who controls the Senate matters a great deal.

[Michelle Cottle]

And there's the question of Trump shut down the government because Congress wouldn't fund the border wall. So there is a question of the money for his priorities. So that matters as to whether or not he has enough support in Congress to just do what he wants to do financially. But foreign policy is something that we are not talking about. But that's where the president tends to make me very nervous, because the president has a lot of leeway, much more even than domestic policy and can cause a lot of trouble.

[Carlos Rosado]

Yeah. And that's where we've, over the decades, more and more power has been ceded to the executive.

[Michelle Cottle]

Yeah. Because Congress doesn't want the responsibility. I mean, they can pretend they do, but like, they like to pass off those really kind of sticky issues.

[Carlos Rosado]

So I have no doubt that we will be back discussing not just the results of the congressional races, but then what Congress actually attempts to do.

[Michelle Cottle]

It's so exciting.

[Carlos Rosado]

Until then, we'll take a break here. When we come back, hot, cold.

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[Carlos Rosado]

All right guys, who's got a hot or a cold this week?

[Ross Douthat]

I have a warm, somewhat hot. It's overwhelming.

[Carlos Rosado]

It's not called hot. Warm, cold.

[Ross Douthat]

It's hot.

[Michelle Cottle]

Ross is tepid.

[Ross Douthat]

It's hot. No. We've been watching in our house the show Tokyo Vice, which has been out for a couple of seasons. It's not a brand new show, but it is based on a memoir of sorts by an American who becomes the first non Japanese reporter at a leading Tokyo daily and gets enmeshed in the Tokyo underworld and tangles with the Yakuza and all the rest.

[Michelle Cottle]

Are you thinking of doing this, Roz?

[Ross Douthat]

Is this like a career movement? I have been thinking, yes, this is a career move. And it's interesting. It's sort of similar to Shogun, which was the big hit of this year. It's a similar sort of, you know, white guy in Japan kind of story.

[Michelle Cottle]

Except instead several hundred years in the future from Shogun.

[Ross Douthat]

But like instead of samurai warlords, it's yakuza warlords. Like there really is sort of an interesting parallel between the shows. And one thing that I particularly like is it stars Ancel Elgort. I'm never sure how to pronounce his name, but he is possibly my least favorite movie star. He was in Baby Driver, the Fault in Our Stars, the Spielberg west side Story. I find him absolutely insufferable. He just exudes smile.

[Carlos Rosado]

Why are you happy that it stars him?

[Ross Douthat]

Because he's perfect for this part. He's playing a kind of arrogant young American who, you know, is sort of, you know, has an alienated, complex relationship with his family back in Missouri. Thinks he's so cool cause he's escaped into Japan and then sort of keeps getting bloodied and beaten up by the culture that he just does not fully understand.

[Michelle Cottle]

Oh my God, you just want to see him beaten.

[Ross Douthat]

So I wanted to see, you know. Yeah. Did I want to see Ansel Elgort, you know, suffer a little, get the crap out of. Maybe I did. Maybe I did.

[Carlos Rosado]

So, Ross, does Tokyo Vice bear any resemblance to Miami Vice? Cause I loved Miami Vice.

[Michelle Cottle]

Is it a sports car or no socks?

[Ross Douthat]

Being younger, being younger than both of you by many, many years.

[Carlos Rosado]

Oh, years.

[Ross Douthat]

The Miami Vice that means the most to me is the Michael Mann movie, not the 90s.

[Carlos Rosado]

Oh, my God, not the 80s TV show.

[Ross Douthat]

Yes.

[Michelle Cottle]

We can't let him talk about culture.

[Ross Douthat]

So I don't have. I'm not gonna give you strong views. I will say our son, our 8 year old is sort of obsessed with Japan, East Asia generally, but Japan specifically. And I sort of feel bad just this is not a show that he can watch. Right. But watching this show because, you know, if I even mention it to him, he really wants to go to Tokyo. And there's no way I'm getting five kids to Tokyo in the foreseeable future. But I do feel like I'm letting him down.

[Michelle Cottle]

It's a parenting place.

[Ross Douthat]

So if any listeners have, like a good program in Toky that I can send an 8 year old to, you know, please leave us a voicemail. I'd appreciate it.

[Carlos Rosado]

All right, let's reconvene next week, which will be the final episode of Matter of Opinion before the election.

[Michelle Cottle]

So much anxiety. The suspense is killing me.

[Ross Douthat]

See you then.

[Carlos Rosado]

See you guys.

[Michelle Cottle]

Bye, guys.

[Carlos Rosado]

Thanks so much for joining us today. Matter of Opinion is produced by the wonderful Sophia Alvarez Boyd, Andrea Batanzos, and Phoebe Lett. It's edited by the ever patient Jordana Hogman. Our ace fact checking team is Kate Sinclair, Mary Marjlogger and Michelle Harris. Original music by Isaac Jones, Efim Shapiro, Carol Sabaro, Sonia Herrero, Amin Sahota and Pat McCusker. Mixing by Carol Sabaro. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta and Christina Samulewski. Our executive producer, the Princess Leia of this rebel alliance is Annie Rose Strasser.

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