Podcast Summary: "Beyond Trump Vs. Harris: These Races Will Shape Our Future"
Matter of Opinion, hosted by Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada, delves into the critical congressional races influencing the future of American politics beyond the high-profile presidential contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Released on October 25, 2024, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of key House and Senate races, exploring their potential impact on the legislative landscape and national agenda.
1. Introduction
The hosts kick off the discussion by acknowledging the multitude of elections occurring concurrently with the presidential race. Carlos Lozada sets the stage by emphasizing the importance of congressional control in determining the effectiveness of the next administration:
“The success of the next president will depend in significant part on who controls the House and the Senate.”
(01:51)
2. Overview of 2024 Congressional Races
Michelle Cottle paints a broad picture of the stakes involved in the congressional elections. She highlighted the precarious situation Democrats face in reclaiming the House:
“The Democrats need four seats to flip the House back to their control.”
(04:06)
Ross Douthat adds a touch of humor while acknowledging the gravity of the situation:
“If you're not up for a Trump presidency... think about that and ponder it for a minute.”
(02:42)
3. Key Senate Races
a. Montana: Tester vs. Sheehy
Montana's Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy is spotlighted as one of the most vulnerable seats for Democrats. Michelle Cottle provides a comprehensive analysis of Tester's longstanding resilience in a predominantly red state:
“Tester has long defied the political trends and survived as a Democrat in a very red state because Montana went for Trump by 16 points.”
(09:12)
The discussion delves into the shifting demographics of Montana, exacerbated by an influx of wealthy transplants from West Coast states, leading to rising housing costs and cultural changes. Tester’s strategy of distancing himself from national Democratic leadership and positioning himself as a quintessential Montanan resonates with local voters. However, his progressive stances on issues like trans rights, influenced by national party messages, may not align with Montana's evolving electorate.
Ross Douthat predicts Tester's potential loss, attributing it to the changing political and demographic landscape:
“I think Tester is going to lose this time.”
(12:06)
b. Nebraska: Deb Fischer vs. Dan Osmos
Shifting focus to Nebraska, Ross Douthat introduces the unique scenario of an independent candidate, Dan Osmos, challenging Republican incumbent Deb Fischer. Osmos, portrayed as a blue-collar populist, presents a formidable yet unlikely threat to Fischer in a reliably Republican state. The hosts discuss the potential impact of Osmos's campaign dynamics, noting his commitment to not caucus with either party—a rare stance in modern politics.
Michelle Cottle remarks on Osmos's unconventional approach:
“He is running a surprisingly competitive campaign against the Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fischer.”
(17:17)
Ross Douthat speculates on the sustainability of Osmos's independence, suggesting that while his initial campaign might gain traction, long-term viability in a polarized environment remains doubtful.
c. Maryland: Larry Hogan vs. Angela Brooks
In Maryland, former Governor Larry Hogan, a Republican known for his moderate and independent stance, faces off against Democrat Angela Brooks. Carlos Lozada draws parallels between Hogan's campaign and the broader trend of moderate Republicans seeking broader appeal in blue states:
“Larry Hogan is the kind of Republican I want in the Senate.”
(20:15)
Despite Hogan's popularity and bipartisan appeal, the Democratic advantage in Maryland makes Brooks the likely victor. The discussion highlights the tension between party loyalty and individual candidate appeal, emphasizing the strategic nuances of Hogan's potential Senate bid.
4. Ballot Measures and Their Impact
Michelle Cottle explores the role of ballot measures, particularly focusing on abortion rights in Montana. She explains how these measures serve as nonpartisan tools to engage voters beyond traditional party lines:
“Organizers do not mention party when they go door to door.”
(14:15)
This approach aims to garner support from a broader spectrum of voters, including those disillusioned with partisan politics. However, Cottle notes the complexity of linking ballot measure outcomes directly to congressional race results, suggesting that while they can influence voter turnout, their effect on down-ballot races is marginal.
5. Implications for National Politics
The conversation shifts to the broader implications of congressional control. Michelle Cottle asserts the benefits of a divided government:
“A lot of the time... I tend to think with the nation, this divided government is not a bad thing because it slows one party's agenda down.”
(04:52)
Ross Douthat and Carlos Lozada discuss potential policy outcomes based on various congressional scenarios, including the passage of tax cuts, immigration reforms, and the use of executive orders. The hosts underscore the critical role of the Senate in shaping the legislative agenda and the potential for political gridlock or cooperation depending on party control.
6. Executive vs. Legislative Power
Carlos Lozada raises concerns about the increasing power of the executive branch, especially in areas like immigration where substantive changes often occur through executive actions rather than legislative processes:
“The president tends to make me very nervous, because the president has a lot of leeway... can cause a lot of trouble.”
(32:54)
Michelle Cottle echoes these concerns, emphasizing the risks associated with an empowered executive, particularly in foreign policy and immigration, highlighting the diminishing influence of Congress in these areas.
7. Concluding Thoughts
As the episode nears its end, the hosts reflect on the strategic chess game unfolding in the 2024 elections. They emphasize the unpredictability of election outcomes and the myriad factors that will shape the political landscape in the coming years. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of presidential and congressional races and the profound impact they collectively have on the nation's trajectory.
Ross Douthat concludes with a thought-provoking statement on policy battles, particularly the contentious debate over the filibuster:
“The Democrats have pushed a lot of chips onto the table in the idea of getting rid of the filibuster.”
(31:11)
Michelle Cottle and Carlos Lozada add their perspectives on potential legislative strategies and the future of bipartisan cooperation, leaving listeners with a nuanced understanding of the stakes involved in the upcoming elections.
Notable Quotes:
- Carlos Lozada (01:51): “The success of the next president will depend in significant part on who controls the House and the Senate.”
- Michelle Cottle (04:06): “The Democrats need four seats to flip the House back to their control.”
- Michelle Cottle (09:12): “Tester has long defied the political trends and survived as a Democrat in a very red state because Montana went for Trump by 16 points.”
- Ross Douthat (12:06): “I think Tester is going to lose this time.”
- Michelle Cottle (14:15): “Organizers do not mention party when they go door to door.”
- Michelle Cottle (04:52): “A lot of the time... I tend to think with the nation, this divided government is not a bad thing because it slows one party's agenda down.”
- Carlos Lozada (32:54): “The president tends to make me very nervous, because the president has a lot of leeway... can cause a lot of trouble.”
This comprehensive analysis by Matter of Opinion offers listeners a deep dive into the pivotal races shaping the American political landscape beyond the presidential election, highlighting the intricate dynamics of congressional control and its far-reaching implications.