Podcast Summary: "Does the Iran War Put America First?"
Interesting Times with Ross Douthat
New York Times Opinion – March 5, 2026
Guest: Kurt Mills, Executive Director, The American Conservative

Overview of the Episode

This episode explores the seeming contradiction between Donald Trump's "America First" campaign promises and the hawkish, interventionist foreign policy of his second administration—most notably leading the US into large-scale war with Iran. Host Ross Douthat speaks with Kurt Mills about the roots of this shift, the internal and external forces shaping America's posture, the role of Israel and Saudi Arabia, and the future of right-wing foreign policy. The conversation is wide-ranging, analytical, and forthright, critically examining the political and ideological dynamics within the Republican Party and conservative movement.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Trump’s Unexpected Foreign Policy Turn

• War Footing: The US is at war with Iran, while still backing Ukraine and intervening elsewhere (Nigeria, Venezuela, etc.). This runs counter to the "restraint" and "America First" ideologies Trump campaigned on.
• Perception of Betrayal: Mills argues that the current hawkishness is a betrayal of Trump’s voters and the anti-interventionist right. (01:08–01:51)

2. Why Did Trump Shift to Hawkishness?

• Leadership and Personality: Mills attributes the turn to Trump’s impatience, lack of interest in detail, and a fundamentally agreeable (even pliable) personality that’s been out-maneuvered by hawks within his administration and allied institutions.
  • "The President is impatient. The President does not have the patience for diplomacy." (05:26 – Kurt Mills)
  • "He has not shown the determination and courage to tell them [the hawks] no." (05:37 – Kurt Mills)
• Factions and Constraints: Multiple competing factions exist within the administration—some restraint-oriented—but the President’s management style allows hawkish forces ("the blob") to set the tone (06:42–06:54).

3. The Right’s Foreign Policy Identity Crisis

• What Should Conservative Foreign Policy Look Like?: Mills champions a tradition of "anti-imperial" and "anti-war" conservatism, skeptical of US overseas commitments and entanglements.
  • He distances himself from the term "isolationist": "It seems like a catch all slur... Very few Republicans call themselves isolationist." (12:04 – Kurt Mills)
• Historical Traditions: Prefers the stances of Eisenhower and Taft over Reagan, viewing the latter as overrated and too imperial (13:52–15:01).

4. Are Voters Really Hawkish?

• Elite vs. Mass Opinion: Mills argues that Republican voters tend to follow party leaders; if Trump negotiated peace, they'd support that just as easily as war. He contends grassroots hawkishness is overstated and largely elite-driven.
  • "Most voters are deferential to their party and politicians." (18:16 – Kurt Mills)
  • Douthat pushes back: "Older conservatives... have a stronger hawkish default for sure..." (20:20 – Ross Douthat)
  • Mills notes generational divides but insists elite cues matter most. (20:56–21:32)

5. Foreign & Domestic Forces Driving Interventionism

• Non-American Actors: Douthat asks if actors like Putin and foreign adversaries help drive US decisions. Mills replies that diplomacy could have worked if a real deal were sought and that US policy is reactive and elite-driven.
  • "You have to offer him [Putin] a deal that makes it more attractive than the status quo." (22:37 – Kurt Mills)
• Elite Incentives: The inability to say "no" to any group—domestic or international—leads to continued escalation. (26:04–28:09)

6. The Israeli and Saudi Influence Debate

• Role of Israel: Mills and Douthat debate whether Republican elites are sincere Iran hawks or afraid of criticizing Israel due to potential career repercussions.
  • "There's an attempt to say any criticism of Israel is ipso facto antisemitic... It's a silly and dulling thought technology." (29:48–31:21 – Kurt Mills)
  • Mills: Israeli influence is "a huge deal" and exerts a "disgusting amount" of sway over US foreign policy (39:39 – Kurt Mills).
  • Douthat: There is also realist, interest-based support for US allies in the Middle East, including both Israel and Saudi Arabia (36:18).
• Elite vs. Voter Motives: Ongoing debate whether pro-Israel hawkishness is more about elite pressure or real voter sentiment (40:18–41:16).
• Trump’s Motivations: Mills claims a mix of political alliances, business interests, and fear explain Trump’s approach to Israel; Douthat presses for more clarity (41:48–44:07).
  • "We can't say no to Israel. This will not stop unless he says no to Israel." (42:40 – Kurt Mills)
  • Mills also speculates about Trump’s fear of Israeli and Mossad influence (43:04).

7. Projection: What Happens if the Iran War Fails?

• Potential Fallout: If the war is seen as a failure, Mills contends conservative politics will radicalize further, with potential for "accelerationist" anti-interventionist sentiment.
  • "The fact that the reigning ideology keeps failing will create a more and more radicalized polity..." (49:36 – Kurt Mills)
• Impact on Trump: Approval ratings could drop, especially if the economy sours (51:58–52:51).
• Role of Vance and Other 2028 Contenders: J.D. Vance may face internal conflict between representing anti-war populism and defending administration decisions; potential for primary challenges from anti-interventionists like Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Thomas Massie (54:46–58:09).
  • "Vance is going to have to innovate beyond [the VP loyalty] if he wants to be president." (56:40 – Kurt Mills)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Kurt Mills on Trump's Personality:
  "The President is impatient. The President does not have the patience for diplomacy...Fundamentally an underratedly agreeable personality." (05:26)

• On Anti-War Conservatism:
  "I am far more to the latter. I think basically the critics of where America went, particularly Post World War II, lost the battle, but they were right." (13:52)

• On Elite vs. Mass Opinion:
  "It's a D.C., New York intelligentsia thing, fundamentally." (15:45)

• On Israeli Influence:
  "A disgusting amount... a lot of Republican congressmen want Netanyahu to be the president frankly." (39:39) "We can't say no to Israel. This will not stop unless he says no to Israel." (42:40)

• On the Potential for Radicalization:
  "The reigning ideology keeps failing will create a more and more radicalized polity that is actually going to...Trump will look in some ways like a moderate." (49:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump’s shift from restraint to hawkishness: 01:58–05:21
• Mills on administration personnel and factionalism: 03:27–05:21
• Trump’s personality as a cause: 05:26–06:42
• Discussion on elite vs. mass foreign policy opinion: 15:36–21:56
• Debate over Israeli influence: 29:19–44:07
• What if the war goes bad? Future GOP scenarios: 48:42–58:09
• Wrap-up and future right-wing challenges: 54:46–59:28

Takeaways and Tone

The episode is intellectually sharp, historically aware, and unafraid to address taboos regarding US foreign policy, especially within the GOP. It highlights how presidential personality—more than ideology or coalition-building—shapes American strategy, and it warns of possible radicalization if current hawkish approaches fail. Douthat and Mills disagree at points but share a tone of critical realism about elite incentives, public opinion, and the cyclical nature of American interventionism.

For listeners who want to understand how the Iran war fits (or doesn’t) within "America First" ideas, and what it foretells about the Republican right’s future, this is an indispensable, candid conversation.