Matter of Opinion: The Road to Trump’s ‘Grand New Party’

Episode Release Date: November 22, 2024

Host: Ross Douthat
Guest: Raihan Salaam, President of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research

Introduction

In this thought-provoking episode of Matter of Opinion, Ross Douthat engages in a deep and reflective conversation with Raihan Salaam, the esteemed president of the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. Drawing from their shared history and co-authored work, "Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream," Douthat and Salaam delve into the transformative journey of the Republican Party, particularly focusing on the seismic shifts brought about by Donald Trump's ascendancy.

Historical Context: Foundations of Conservative Thought

[00:27] Ross Douthat:
Ross begins by outlining the Republican Party's evolution from its Reagan-era coalition—comprising social and religious conservatives, hawkish foreign policy advocates, and free-market proponents—to a more diverse, blue-collar, and multiracial coalition under Trump. He emphasizes that Trump's leadership was pivotal in reshaping the party's demographic and ideological landscape.

[02:52] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam reflects on his longstanding relationship with Douthat, highlighting their early collaboration in Washington, D.C., and their joint efforts to redefine conservative domestic policy. He underscores their commitment to addressing the needs of the working class, diverging from traditional conservative focus areas.

The Grand New Party Vision

[04:18] Ross Douthat:
Ross recounts the genesis of their collaborative vision during the mid-2000s, a period dominated by foreign policy debates post-9/11 and the Iraq War. Recognizing the lack of focus on domestic issues within conservative discourse, they sought to carve out a space addressing economic inequality and the challenges facing the American working class.

[07:39] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam elaborates on their distinctive approach to domestic policy, merging market-oriented strategies with emerging critiques of 90s capitalism. They aimed to modernize conservative thought by integrating tradition with progressive economic policies, positioning themselves as proponents of a balanced welfare state.

Notable Quote:
[10:05] Raihan Salaam:
"What if we actually took these ideas seriously and had the right intellectual foundation for them?"

Trump's Rise and Its Impact on the GOP

[12:25] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam discusses the initial rejection of their ideas in the wake of the financial crisis and the rise of the Tea Party movement, which prioritized limited government and fiscal conservatism over their proposed domestic-focused agenda.

[21:20] Ross Douthat:
Ross expresses skepticism about Trump's ability to fulfill the "Grand New Party" vision, noting that while Trump capitalized on anti-immigrant sentiments and economic discontent, his approach was more demagogic and less about constructing a positive, inclusive policy framework.

Notable Quote:
[25:55] Raihan Salaam:
"Trump recognized that taking Medicare and Social Security off the table is something that would shatter the Obama coalition."

Coalition Changes and Electoral Shifts

[27:21] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam analyzes how Trump's strategies during his presidency led to significant gains among Hispanic voters and urban counties, particularly during tumultuous periods like the COVID crisis and cultural upheavals. However, he notes that these gains did not translate into a durable, multiracial coalition as initially envisioned.

[35:46] Ross Douthat:
Ross contemplates the current state of the Republican coalition, observing that while some segments align with their original vision, others remain entrenched in anti-left sentiments, creating a fragmented and less efficient political base.

Notable Quote:
[38:59] Ross Douthat:
"We are talking about how are we going to have a limited government that is highly effective and energetic within its limited domain."

Economic Policy Debates: From Tax Cuts to Industrial Policy

[39:19] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam delves into the economic policies pursued during Trump's first term, contrasting the libertarian impulses of figures like Steve Moore with the more transformative but unrealized ambitions of Steve Bannon for a right-wing New Deal.

[43:37] Ross Douthat:
Ross expresses doubt about the feasibility of a dramatic right-wing restructuring of the American economy, suggesting that while certain populist measures like tariffs may persist, a comprehensive industrial policy akin to historical New Deal or Reagan-era initiatives remains unlikely.

Notable Quote:
[41:43] Raihan Salaam:
"Trump recognized that taking Medicare and Social Security off the table is something that would shatter the Obama coalition. It would really change things."

Future of the Republican Party: Possibilities and Challenges

[45:22] Raihan Salaam:
Salaam envisions a Republican future centered around cultural healing and the celebration of family-centric values, rather than relying solely on government intervention. He highlights the potential influence of figures like Elon Musk and J.D. Vance in shaping a new conservatism focused on innovation and community support.

[47:04] Ross Douthat:
Ross reflects on the diminishing role of government in fostering social policies and the increasing importance of cultural change in addressing societal issues. He acknowledges the positive aspects of Salaam’s evolving perspective while maintaining concerns about the lack of a cohesive economic agenda.

Notable Quote:
[50:00] Ross Douthat:
"Right is a political coalition that aspires to run the United States of America for an extended period of time...still at its heart needs a basic economic agenda that says, here's how we're on your side, middle America."

Conclusion: Navigating the Future

In their concluding remarks, Douthat and Salaam grapple with the question of whether the Republican Party can move beyond being merely the anti-left coalition to embody a dynamic, positive force for economic and cultural renewal. They acknowledge the challenges posed by Trump's legacy and the shifting political landscape but remain contemplative about potential paths forward.

[55:38] Raihan Salaam:
"One strange bookend is that we began by talking about how we came to our obsessions with domestic policy in the shadow of 9/11...how are we forced to remake the American economy in what could be a wartime economy."

[57:13] Ross Douthat:
Ross posits that without a clear and compelling economic agenda akin to previous transformative policies, the Republican Party risks remaining fragmented and reactionary, unable to sustain a long-term governing coalition.

Takeaways

1. Transformation Under Trump: Donald Trump's presidency significantly altered the Republican Party's coalition, emphasizing anti-immigrant sentiment and cultural conservatism over the original "Grand New Party" vision of a multiracial, working-class coalition.

2. Policy vs. Narrative: While Salaam and Douthat advocated for a policy-driven approach to support the working class and modernize conservatism, Trump's strategy was more narrative-driven, capitalizing on existing discontent without providing a cohesive policy framework.

3. Future Directions: The Republican Party faces the challenge of reconciling Trump's populist legacy with the need for a sustainable, inclusive economic agenda. Potential paths include embracing cultural values that promote family and community or leveraging influential figures to spearhead innovative conservatism.

4. Economic Policy Challenges: The difficulty in crafting a comprehensive right-wing economic policy akin to the New Deal highlights tensions within the GOP between libertarian impulses and broader populist demands.

This episode offers a nuanced exploration of the Republican Party's evolution, the impact of Trump's leadership, and the ongoing struggle to define a unified conservative vision. For listeners interested in the intersection of politics, economics, and cultural dynamics within the GOP, this discussion provides valuable insights and critical reflections.