Podcast Summary: Matter of Opinion – "This Election Is the Tiebreaker Over Trumpism"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Matter of Opinion
• Hosts: Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, Carlos Lozada
• Description: Hosted by Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada, "Matter of Opinion" is a New York Times Opinion podcast that delves into diverse topics every Friday, ranging from politics to pop culture.
• Episode Title: This Election Is the Tiebreaker Over Trumpism
• Release Date: November 1, 2024

Introduction

In the episode titled "This Election Is the Tiebreaker Over Trumpism," hosts Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada engage in a comprehensive discussion about the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As the election draws to a close, the trio reflects on unexpected campaign developments, past election experiences, and the potential long-term implications of the current political climate dominated by Trumpism.

Key Discussions

1. Emotional Landscape and Pre-Election Sentiments

The episode begins with the hosts sharing their feelings leading up to the election results. Carlos expresses excitement, challenging the prevalent narrative around self-care and anxiety management in the current political discourse.

• Carlos Lozada (00:29): "I'm feeling great. Everyone's like, are you engaging in self care? How are you controlling your anxiety? Like, is it terrible to say that I'm excited?"

Ross humorously counters the acceptability of such emotions, setting a light-hearted tone before delving into serious analysis.

2. Unanticipated Campaign Dynamics

Michelle notes that the 2024 campaign unraveled differently than expected, highlighting the unpredictability of the race.

• Michelle Cottle (05:10): "This campaign has not gone at all the way any of us expected it to."

Ross identifies the Trump indictments as a pivotal moment that reshaped the Republican nomination landscape, consolidating Trump's support despite potential Republican chaos.

• Ross Douthat (06:03): "The indictments helped him because they deepened the persecution narrative."

Carlos expands on this by explaining how the indictments fortified Trump's position within the party, sidelining rivals like Ron DeSantis.

• Carlos Lozada (03:33): "We've been told the race is deadlocked for so long. I want to know who actually wins this election. This is the third straight election we've had with Trump on the ballot."

3. The Role and Decline of Ron DeSantis

Michelle applauds Ross’s prediction about Ron DeSantis’s campaign faltering due to a lack of charisma compared to Trump.

• Michelle Cottle (07:50): "Ron DeSantis looked awesome until people found out that he was, in fact, Ron DeSantis."

Ross concurs, attributing DeSantis's decline to his inability to match Trump's celebrity-driven appeal.

• Ross Douthat (09:41): "He ran a very bad campaign... would have been competitive absent the indictment cascade."

4. Project 2025's Impact

Carlos discusses the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025, emphasizing its negative reception across the political spectrum and its potential influence on the election outcome.

• Carlos Lozada (11:07): "Project 2025 became perhaps the longest lasting and most effective talking point that the Democrats have had in this campaign and became a massive albatross for the Republicans."

Ross questions the long-term significance of Project 2025, suggesting that issues like the Dobbs decision on abortion might overshadow it.

• Ross Douthat (12:15): "If Harris wins, people will point to the Dobbs decision and abortion more than they will point to Project 2025."

5. Consequential Nature of the 2024 Election

The hosts deliberate whether the 2024 election stands as the most consequential of their lifetimes. They compare it to past pivotal elections, debating its potential for realigning political coalitions and enduring policy shifts.

• Carlos Lozada (27:44): "Elections are consequential if they mark a big shift in political coalitions or lead to long-lasting changes in policy and governance."

• Ross Douthat (22:25): "2016 will be the most consequential election, if not of my lifetime, because it turned populism into a central phenomenon in American politics."

Michelle and Carlos explore themes like identity politics, the impact of Trumpism on younger voters, and the potential for enduring gender and racial divides.

6. Rhetoric and Identity Politics Concerns

Michelle expresses apprehension about the Republican Party's strategy to divide voters along gender lines using sexist rhetoric, fearing long-term societal repercussions.

• Michelle Cottle (33:00): "I'm quite nervous that the Republican Party will come away from this with the lesson that the way to win a close presidential election is to divide the men and the women."

Ross echoes these concerns, highlighting the risks of politicizing identity issues like abortion.

• Ross Douthat (33:31): "If the Harris campaign wins on an abortion message, it would create a depressing future for American liberalism."

Carlos adds his worries about the perpetuation of dehumanizing rhetoric, regardless of the election outcome.

• Carlos Lozada (36:03): "There are things you can't unring. That is something that troubles me."

7. Personal Anecdotes from Past Elections

To provide a personal touch, the hosts share memorable experiences from previous election nights:

• Michelle Cottle (43:00): Recounts the chaotic 2000 election night between George W. Bush and Al Gore, characterized by prolonged uncertainty and eventual exhaustion.

• Ross Douthat (43:00): Reflects on the anticlimactic 2012 election night, where the expected suspense never materialized as Obama's victory was swiftly confirmed.

• Carlos Lozada (44:58): Shares his first-time voting experience in 2016, emphasizing the excitement of registering to vote with his young child despite the disappointing outcome.

Insights and Conclusions

The hosts collectively assess that while the 2024 election is undeniably significant, its ultimate historical impact will be clearer only in hindsight. They emphasize the role of this election as a potential tiebreaker in America's ongoing relationship with Trumpism, determining whether its influence will wane or solidify further.

• Carlos Lozada (25:29): "Consequences happen later. We can only determine this in hindsight."

• Ross Douthat (24:03): "America is in the most difficult position of my lifetime in terms of our power, capacity, and the different kinds of threats we face."

Michelle concludes with a hope for peace and moderation, despite acknowledging pervasive societal divisions.

• Michelle Cottle (38:28): "I am not optimistic, but I am hopeful."

Notable Quotes

1. Carlos Lozada (00:29): "I'm feeling great. Everyone's like, are you engaging in self care? How are you controlling your anxiety?"

2. Ross Douthat (06:03): "The indictments helped him because they deepened the persecution narrative."

3. Carlos Lozada (11:07): "Project 2025 became perhaps the longest lasting and most effective talking point that the Democrats have had in this campaign."

4. Michelle Cottle (33:00): "I'm quite nervous that the Republican Party will come away from this with the lesson that the way to win a close presidential election is to divide the men and the women."

5. Ross Douthat (24:03): "America is in the most difficult position of my lifetime in terms of our power, capacity, and the different kinds of threats we face."

Conclusion

"This Election Is the Tiebreaker Over Trumpism" offers an in-depth analysis of the 2024 U.S. presidential race, exploring its unexpected developments, pivotal moments, and potential ramifications for America's political future. Through candid discussions and personal reflections, Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, and Carlos Lozada provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of where the nation stands and what lies ahead in the post-election landscape.