Julian Dorey Podcast #382: "Don’t Do It!”—Mossad in Iran, Trump Regime Change, Clinton Bribe & Nuke Deal | Guest: Trita Parsi

Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Julian Dorey
Guest: Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, Iran-born political scientist, expert on Iran-U.S. relations

Episode Overview

This wide-ranging conversation dives deep into Iranian politics, U.S. and Israeli foreign policy, regime change methodology, the internal and external opposition to Iran’s government, the nuclear deal, Mossad’s actions inside Iran, and the complex web of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Trita Parsi—a prominent voice on Iran, exiled since childhood—brings personal and professional insight, blending analyst rigor and lived experience.

The episode touches on historical context (from the 1979 revolution to modern protests), key international interventions, the role of organizations like the MEK, diplomatic efforts (and failures), and the dangerous path of external regime change. It’s both a primer and a critical deep-dive for listeners wanting to understand Iran and its place in the world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reforming the UN Security Council

• Current Issues: The five permanent members' veto power paralyzes action in crises like the Israel-Gaza and Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
• Proposed Reform:
  • Parsi discusses the "Veto Plus One" proposal:

    "Each and every veto that is cast by any of the P5 needs to be accompanied with one other negative vote by any other member ... If it's just that permanent member casting a veto and no one else casting a negative vote, then the matter goes to the General Assembly and 2/3 can overturn the veto." (05:05)

  • The proposal is an attempt at compromise, recognizing great powers won't voluntarily give up the veto, but the UN's legitimacy is collapsing.
• Why Reform, Why Now?

  "Unless we have some reform of the UN, particularly the Security Council ... it's reflecting the world as it looked in 1945... we might as well have based it on the geopolitical realities of the time around the life of Jesus Christ." (05:05)

  • The urgency, Parsi argues, is that reform is now necessary for the UN’s survival.

2. Personal Stakes: Parsi’s Story and the Stakes of Revolution

• Exile Background:
  • Trita describes his family’s persecution under both the Shah and the Islamic Republic.
  • "My dad had just been twice in jail, so decided to take the opportunity to go to Sweden. He chose Sweden probably mainly because he was left leaning, and Sweden was like this leftist heaven back then." (98:07)
  • Upon his father’s return after the revolution, his name was on an execution list. He survived because revolutionary jailers—his former students—knew he opposed the Shah.

    "They whisk him out of prison I think after a month or so, put him on a plane, he's never been back." (101:31)

• The Human Cost of Revolution:

  "People forget that it is so disruptive ... now a revolution has happened and suddenly they don't even accept the previous degrees. Like, your entire education wiped out and you're still one of the lucky ones because you didn't get killed, you didn't get into prison." (11:59)

  • Both hosts warn against romanticizing revolution, highlighting how Iran traded one form of dictatorship for another.

3. MEK: Cults, Terror Lists, and Washington Influence

• Origins and Evolution:
  • The MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) started as a radical, martially active group opposing the Shah, later allied with Saddam Hussein against Iran, losing all domestic credibility.
  • Eventually labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. for killing Americans and repressing Shias/Kurds under Saddam.
• Cult Dynamics:

  "They did all of these crazy things. Forced divorce... They took children from MEK families and place them with other MEK families. This then ensured that MEK members could not defect because if they defected, they would lose access to their own children." (24:48)

• Bribing for Legitimacy:

  "They ran a huge lobbying campaign in Washington, 2010 and 2011, the MEK, which frankly, was illegal ... eventually managed to get Hillary Clinton to take them off the terrorist list." (26:43)

• Current Location:
  • After U.S. intervention, many MEK members now reside in a closed camp in Albania; they’re still highly controlling, with some defectors speaking out.
  • They run sophisticated online propaganda operations from Albania (see BBC reporting). (30:30)

4. Iran’s Internal Cleavages, the Danger of Civil War, and the Diaspora

• Ethnic Tensions:
  • Multiple minorities (Kurds, Baluchis, Azeris) have long histories of marginalization or separatist tendencies.
• Civil War Risk:

  "What I see in Iran right now is all of the ingredients that very much could lead to a civil war if not handled and managed correctly." (16:19)

• Trap of Outside Regime Change:
  • The Iranian diaspora is ideologically diverse with conflicting claims to legitimacy.
  • Parsi cautions that revolutions/civil wars rarely end as intended, with external interventions (historically by the U.S.) often creating destructive power vacuums.

  "Foreign intervention will ultimately lead to democracy? I don't believe that ... Foreign intervention... is not going to bring about a democracy." (107:59)

5. U.S. Policy, the Sanctions Trap, and the Nuclear Deal

• Obama-era Nuclear Deal (JCPOA):
  • Parsi, an advisor and scholar on the deal, defends its verification mechanisms as world-class, with intrusive 24/7 IAEA oversight.
  • He addresses "sunset clauses":

    "There’s no such thing as permanent forever in which all aspects are there." (55:03)

  • The real sticking point was that the U.S., by negotiating under the NPT, couldn’t make Iran a "permanent pariah."
  • Israeli nuclear scientists privately considered the deal effective, countering Netanyahu’s public stance.

    "These are the nuclear scientists of Israel ... who are in a position to assess whether these inspections will work or not." (82:03)

• Trump’s Withdrawal and “Maximum Pressure”:
  • The U.S. exit from the JCPOA under Trump, and re-imposing harsher sanctions, is cited as the death knell for Iran’s reformist movement:

    "One third of Iran’s middle class has gone into poverty in the last 10 years as a direct result of Donald Trump’s maximum pressure sanctions." (47:24)

  • The resulting economic collapse fueled the current fury within Iran.

6. Israel’s True Motivations & Regional Power Balances

• Nuclear Program as Proxy for Regional Dominance:

  • Parsi describes an Israeli security logic less about the bomb itself and more about keeping the U.S. as an unambiguous ally:

    "Israel cannot allow the United States to become friends with a country that defines Israel as an enemy and does not recognize Israel’s right to exist. We cannot allow that to happen." (65:27)

  • Israeli strategy:
    • Use the nuclear file to tie the U.S. to Israel’s side; fear is abandonment, not just Iran’s nuclear capacity.
    • Pressure to expand U.S. military action against Iran, shifting goals from the nuclear program to missile capabilities and beyond (see Israel’s shifting "red lines"). (70:07)

• Military Operations and Costs:

  • Iran’s missile retaliation during Israeli strikes proved significant, showing that without American support, Israel cannot guarantee air superiority over Iran.
  • U.S. involvement in support of Israel is immense, with billions spent on missile defense in crises.

7. Regime Change: Venezuela as Canary in a Coal Mine

• U.S. Action in Venezuela:
  • Recent U.S.-supported regime-change operation in Venezuela succeeded with minimal cost—no U.S. boots, no local casualties, Maduro replaced by his #2, not the opposition.
  • Parsi cautions against taking this as a template for Iran:

    "The idea that this can just be replicated anywhere, regardless of the circumstances, is a huge mistake ... to take that attitude and then think, okay, as a result, now we can do this everywhere else, very dangerous." (76:17)

  • The risk of contagion: If the U.S. sets new precedents of leader extraction, it invites escalation by rivals (i.e., China/Taiwan analogy). (79:47)

8. Protests, Mossad, and Foreign Manipulation

• Recent Protests:
  • December 2025/January 2026: Unprecedented violence—both from government and mysterious provocateurs.
  • The death toll likely 5,000–7,000+; even regime supporters are in shock.
  • Parsi notes unique features:
    • Protesters faced not just state repression but also shadowy, violent actors (possibly state- or Mossad-backed, or rogue militias).
    • The dynamic was less controlled than 2022’s women-led protests.
• Mossad Penetration:
  • Israel’s intelligence agencies have executed deep strikes in Iran, with local assets, sabotage, and in-country drone operations.
  • Why so effective?

    "You have to have a very large critical mass of people that are so upset and angry ... that they’re willing to consider [helping Israel]." (166:14)

    • Disaffection produces intelligence opportunities.
  • Tactics for recruitment include offering medical help, exit opportunities, and leveraging personal grievances.
  • The extent is so large that Iran’s intelligence failures eclipse Israel’s own October 7 missteps.

    "The Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran is beyond anything anyone had envisioned or expected. It took, I think, everyone by surprise." (166:14)

9. Diaspora Opposition & Leadership Crisis

• Disorganization Abroad:
  • Attempts to create a viable, democratic Iranian opposition in exile have failed—coalition attempts broke down rapidly in-fighting.
  • Many diaspora leaders lack democratic ethos despite years in Western society.

    "If you've been here that long and not picked up ... you're not an answer, you're part of the problem." (164:01)

10. The Pitfalls of External Regime Change and Looking Ahead

• Civil War Risks:
  • Externally driven or poorly planned regime change is likely to produce state collapse, military entrenchment, or civil war, as seen in Syria and Libya.

    "Most civil wars cannot last for more than about a year... The cases in which they go on for longer ... is because of foreign military intervention." (115:17)

• Iran’s Future:
  • Parsi is pessimistic about an imminent revolution but believes the regime is mortally wounded ("a dead man walking") due to its loss of legitimacy.
  • The likely outcome: a reshuffling within the existing regime (“another iteration”), rather than a clean break.

    "I think within the next five years, this current iteration of the regime will be gone, but most likely it will be replaced with another iteration of the same regime." (179:54)

  • The best scenario? Demise through internal, not external, processes. Foreign military intervention is a dead end.

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the UN Security Council’s veto:

  “We might as well have based it on the geopolitical realities of the time around the life of Jesus Christ.” (05:05)
  —Trita Parsi

• On the hazards of outside regime change:

  "I'm not a fan of the idea of revolution... The United States is one of the few countries in the world that actually had a successful revolution." (10:14)
  —Trita Parsi

• On the MEK’s cult tactics:

  “Forced divorce. No one was allowed to actually have a wife or a husband. They were all supposed to just have their love only for the leader... They took children from MEK families and placed them with other MEK families. This then ensured MEK members could not defect.” (24:48)
  —Trita Parsi

• On sanctions and the economy:

  “One third of Iran's middle class has gone into poverty in the last 10 years as a direct result of Donald Trump's maximum pressure sanctions that have really been suffocating the economy.” (47:24)
  —Trita Parsi

• On Israel’s “red line” with Iran:

  “Israel cannot allow the United States to become friends with a country that defines Israel as an enemy and does not recognize Israel's right to exist. We cannot allow that to happen.” (65:27)
  —Trita Parsi

• On Mossad infiltration in Iran:

  "The Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran is beyond anything anyone had envisioned or expected. It took, I think, everyone by surprise... you have to have a very large critical mass of people that are so upset and angry and pissed off at the government" (166:14)
  —Trita Parsi

• On the failures of Iranian opposition in exile:

  “If you've spent your 45 years in the United States and you haven't picked up any democratic line of thinking... you're not an answer, you're part of the problem.” (164:00)
  —Trita Parsi

• On power and failed transitions:

  "Power is a very, very strange thing. And in an ideal world, power goes to the people who actually least want it. And that doesn't happen very often." (110:42)
  —Julian Dorey

Timestamps of Major Topics

• 02:19 – UN Security Council & Reform Proposals
• 10:14 – Parsi’s Motivations & Perils of Revolution
• 20:35 – MEK: Origins, Terror Listings, and U.S. Lobbying
• 43:35 – Life under the Shah vs. Islamic Republic
• 47:24 – The Failure of Reform and Impact of Sanctions
• 54:08 – The Nuclear Deal: Terms, Verifications, & Criticism
• 65:27 – Israel’s Deepest Fears & Nuclear Program
• 76:17 – Venezuela Regime Change as Template?
• 82:03 – Technical Details & Verification of Nuclear Deal
• 107:56 – Why External Regime Change Is Destined to Fail
• 116:49 – Proxy Wars: Saudi, Iran, Turkey, & Qatar
• 137:02 – Parsi's Exile Experience in Sweden vs. U.S.
• 142:03 – Khomeini’s Charisma & the Post-Revolution Order
• 166:14 – Mossad’s Methods and Depth of Infiltration
• 177:18 – Is the Regime Finished? Likelihood and Scenarios

Tone & Style

Parsi’s analysis is measured, methodical, and laced with candor—even when discussing personal trauma. He avoids romanticism or demonization, pressing for realism and peace. Julian Dorey matches this with sharp, informed questioning and a conversational, energetic tone. The conversation is thorough but accessible, often referencing both historical nuance and pop culture to help listeners stay engaged and draw parallels.

Summary for New Listeners

This episode is an indispensable explainer for anyone seeking to understand modern Iran's internal crises, failures of reform, roots of global distrust, U.S.-Israel-Iran maneuvering, and the real stakes of external regime change. Trita Parsi makes clear that the path forward—if Iran is to avoid civil war and find democracy—must be internal, not imposed by outside powers, and that every failed intervention makes future peace less likely. The conversation’s depth and honesty set it apart as a must-listen for anyone interested in geopolitics, international law, or the lived realities of revolutionary change.

For more:

• Follow Trita Parsi on socials [linked by Julian]
• Read his books: Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph of Diplomacy
• Reference cited timestamps for specific segments or revisit the transcript for full context