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December 8, 2024. Late last night, the White House said in a statement that President Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and are staying in constant touch with regional partners. Early this morning, the Syrian government of Bashar al Assad fell to armed opposition, according to Jill Lawless of the Associated Press. The forces that toppled Assad are led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, or hts, a coalition of Islamic groups formerly associated with Al Qaeda's branch in Syria and currently designated a terrorist group by the US and the United Nations. Although its leaders have tried to distance themselves from Al Qaeda, President Bashar Al Assad succeeded his father to the Syrian presidency in July 2000, establishing a totalitarian dictatorship. In 2011, Assad cracked down on protesters who were part of the Arab Spring, sparking a civil war of a number of factions fighting Assad's troops, which by 2015 relied on support from Russia and Iran. That war has turned half of Syria's pre war population of 23 million, a little more than the population of Florida, into refugees and killed more than half a million people. With Russian and Iranian support, Assad managed to regain control of most of the country, with rebels pushed back to the north and northwest. A stalemate that had lasted for years ended abruptly on November 27. Iran and Hezbollah have been badly weakened by the ongoing fight of Israel against Iran backed Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. On November 27, Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire agreement that made it clear that Hezbollah had been tied down in Lebanon and that its ability to fight had been severely compromised. At the same time, Russia has been badly weakened by almost three years of war against Ukraine. And the Russian ruble fell sharply again in late November after additional US sanctions targeted Russia's third largest bank, creating more economic hardship in Russia and undercutting Putin's insistence that he is winning against the West. When opposition forces began an offensive on November 27, they took more than 15 villages in Aleppo province that day. Journalist Lawless recounted a quick history of the next 11 days, recording how the insurgents swept through the country with little resistance, taking Syria's largest city, aleppo, on the 29th. The Syrian military launched a counterattack on December 1, but the insurgents continued to gain ground and by December 7 they had captured Syria's third largest city, Homs. They announced they were in the final stage of their offensive today, December 8, Assad fled with his family to Moscow, where Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered him asylum. As Nick Peyton Walsh of CNN put it, without the physical crutches of Russia's Air Force and Iran's proxy muscle Hezbollah. Assad toppled when finally pushed in Damascus, crowds are praying and celebrating and opposition forces have liberated the prisoners held in the notorious Sadnaya military prison. More than 100,000 detainees are unaccounted for and their families are hoping to find them or at least to find ANSWERS. Meanwhile, after Assad's regime fell, the US Air Force struck more than 75 ISIS related targets in Syria. ISIS has been trying to reconstitute in this broad area known as the Badia Desert, a White House senior official told reporters. We have worked to make sure they cannot do that, so when they try to camp there, when they try to train, we take them out. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan explained at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California that the US Will work to prevent the resurgence of isis. It will also make sure that our friends in the region, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, others who border Syria or who would potentially face spillover effects from Syria are strong and secure. Finally, he said, the US Wants to make sure that this does not lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. Speaking to the nation this afternoon, President Joe Biden announced at long last the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized and tortured and killed literally hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. He called the fall of Assad's regime a fundamental act of justice and a moment of historic opportunity for the long suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. But it is also a moment of risk and uncertainty, the president said. He noted that the US Is mindful of the security of Americans in Syria, including freelance journalist Austin Tice, who was kidnapped in 2012 and imprisoned by Assad's regime. We believe he is alive, biden told reporters. We think we can get him back, but we have no direct evidence of that yet. Biden noted that Syria's main backers, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia could not defend this abhorrent regime in Syria because they are far weaker today than when I took office, he continued. This is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine and Israel have landed on them with the unflagging support of the United States. In contrast to Biden's comments, President Elect Donald Trump's social media accounts took Russia's side in the Syrian events, noting that the insurgents looked as if they would throw Assad out. Trump's account said that Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. The account blamed former President Barack Obama for the crisis of 2011 and said that Russia had stepped in then to stop the chaos. The Trump account suggested that Assad's defeat might be the best thing that can happen to Russia because there was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, the account continued, syria is a mess but is not our friend and the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved. In contrast to Trump's focus on Russia, journalist Ann Applebaum, a scholar of autocracy, took a much broader view of the meaning of Assad's fall In dictatorships, she wrote in the Atlantic, cold, deliberate, well planned cruelty like Assad's is meant to inspire hopelessness. Ludicrous lies and cynical propaganda campaigns are meant to create apathy and nihilism. Random arrests create destabilizing waves of refugees that leave those who remain in despair. Authoritarian regimes seek to rob people of any ability to plan for a different future, to convince people that their dictatorships are eternal. Our leader forever, she points out, was the slogan of the Assad dynasty. But soldiers and police officers have relatives who suffer under the regime and their loyalty is not assured, as Assad has now learned. The future of Syria is entirely unclear, applebaum writes, but there is no doubt that the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. There is nothing worse than hopelessness, nothing more soul destroying than pessimism, grief and despair. The fall of a Russian and Iranian backed regime offers suddenly the possibility of change. The future might be different and that possibility will inspire hope all around the world.
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Letters from an American was produced at Soundscape Productions, Dedham, MA. Recorded with music composed by Michael Moss.
Letters from an American: December 8, 2024 – The Fall of Assad and Its Global Implications
Heather Cox Richardson delves into the seismic shift in Syria as Bashar al-Assad's regime collapses, exploring the historical context, immediate repercussions, and broader geopolitical implications.
In the December 8, 2024 episode of Letters from an American, host Heather Cox Richardson unpacks the dramatic downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the factors leading to Assad's ousting, the roles played by international players, and the potential future landscape of Syria and the broader Middle East.
Heather begins by setting the stage with a brief history of the Assad dynasty. Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father in July 2000, establishing a totalitarian regime. The outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 saw Assad brutally suppressing protests, igniting a multifaceted civil war. Over the years, Assad relied heavily on support from Russia and Iran to maintain his grip on power. The protracted conflict resulted in over half a million deaths and displaced more than half of Syria's pre-war population, turning it into a humanitarian crisis with millions seeking refuge abroad.
The episode details the swift advancements by opposition forces in late November 2024, marking the end of a years-long stalemate.
Rapid Offensive: Opposition groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a significant offensive on November 27, capturing 15 villages in Aleppo province within a single day. By December 8, they had seized major cities, including Aleppo on the 29th and Homs by December 7.
Assad's Flight: On December 8, faced with overwhelming opposition and weakened support from Russia and Iran, Assad fled to Moscow, seeking asylum. As reported by CNN’s Nick Peyton Walsh at [07:15], “Without the physical crutches of Russia's Air Force and Iran's proxy muscle Hezbollah, Assad toppled when finally pushed in Damascus.”
Celebrations and Concerns: While many Syrians celebrated the regime's fall and the liberation of prisoners from Sadnaya military prison, concerns mount over the whereabouts of over 100,000 detainees whose fates remain unknown.
United States:
Military Actions: Following Assad’s ousting, the US Air Force targeted over 75 ISIS-related sites in Syria to prevent the group's resurgence in the Badia Desert. A senior White House official confirmed these actions, emphasizing the US commitment to regional stability.
Official Statements:
Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser, stated at the Reagan National Defense Forum in [03:20], “The US will work to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and ensure our regional allies remain strong and secure.”
President Joe Biden addressed the nation, declaring, “The fall of Assad's regime is a fundamental act of justice and a historic opportunity for Syria to build a better future” at [06:45]. He also highlighted concerns over the safety of Americans in Syria, including the fate of journalist Austin Tice, stating, “We believe he is alive and are working to get him back” at [07:05].
Russia and Iran:
President Elect Donald Trump: Trump’s social media outlets presented a contrasting narrative, siding with Russia amidst the Syrian upheaval. At [05:30], his account remarked:
“Russia, tied down in Ukraine with heavy losses, seems incapable of stopping the insurgent march through Syria. Assad’s defeat might even benefit Russia, which never gained much from Syria except making Obama look foolish. Syria is a mess, not our friend, and the US shouldn’t get involved. Let it play out.”
This stance reflects Trump's broader skepticism towards US involvement in Syrian affairs and criticism of previous administrations' handling of the crisis.
Renowned scholar Ann Applebaum offers a deeper analysis of the regime's collapse in an article for The Atlantic, featured at [06:10]. She emphasizes the psychological and societal impacts of authoritarian rule:
“Cold, deliberate cruelty is meant to inspire hopelessness. Authoritarian regimes seek to rob people of the ability to envision a different future, convincing them that their dictatorships are eternal.”
Applebaum suggests that Assad’s fall, while opening a potential path for change, leaves Syria in a precarious state. The dismantling of the regime's oppressive machinery could inspire hope but also brings uncertainty about the nation's future governance and stability.
Richardson highlights several key outcomes and ongoing challenges:
Humanitarian Concerns: The immediate aftermath of Assad’s departure raises fears of a humanitarian catastrophe, with millions displaced and the potential for new conflicts to arise amidst the power vacuum.
Regional Stability: The weakening of Iran and Hezbollah alters the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially reducing proxy conflicts but also creating unpredictability in regional alliances.
Global Geopolitics: Russia’s diminished influence due to its entanglement in Ukraine, coupled with China's growing global presence, may shift international power dynamics further.
Hope vs. Uncertainty: While the end of a brutal dictatorship offers a glimmer of hope for Syria, the path forward is fraught with risks. The international community faces the challenge of supporting a peaceful transition while preventing the resurgence of extremist groups.
The December 8, 2024 episode of Letters from an American presents a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern politics with the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Heather Cox Richardson underscores the historical significance of this event, the fragile state of post-Assad Syria, and the intricate web of international relations that influenced this outcome. As Syria stands on the brink of a new era, the episode leaves listeners contemplating the delicate balance between hope for renewal and the persistent shadows of conflict and uncertainty.
Produced at Soundscape Productions, Dedham, MA, with music composed by Michael Moss.