← Lunch with Jamie
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- [00:04]
A
Welcome to another episode of Lunch With Jamie. In today's episode, we tried a bit of a different format in order to make sense of California primary elections. I brought in some special guests. Jessica Yellen from NewsNot Noise, Alex Cohn from Spectrum, Fernando Guerra from LMU, and Julia Wick from LA. Material. This is lively and fun conversation where we tried to dissect everything that we knew. The only challenge is that Wednesday at 12pm on June 3, there was still so much left to learn. The majority of the races seem clear, but the big question which was top of everybody's mind, La Mayor. And as a recording, time looked like Spencer Pratt was going to make it to the runoff in November. However, as of last night, betting markets have changed and now Nithya Rahman looks poised to make it to the runoff. As the votes come in, things are going to continue to change. Who knows what's going to happen? But regardless, this was really fun, really interesting. I love talking to all these people. I could have done it for much longer. They're all so smart and so interesting. So now here's the latest episode of Lunch with Jamie. Hey, everybody. Welcome to a special edition of Lunch with Jamie. This is a. Since we're on election season, this is a post primary election episode. We have a ton to cover. We're recording this at 12pm on Pacific Time, Wednesday, June 3rd. That's critical because at least in California, we are going to be getting election results every day for the coming days. And it's unclear if the big races are Governor, mayor, really have a real chance of shifting dramatically enough to change a front runner. I'll leave that to our experts to let us know. But there's definitely be some other races that will. We will try and cover as much as we can in this hour and hopefully it will all still be really relevant when we get all this new data. But there will be some big things, topics we'll talk about that are on my mind related to the ballot and the election overall. So we're gonna start off with Jessica Yellen, who is my dear friend and has news, not noise, and one of the best journalists out there trying to get through all the clutter for us. So, Jessica, welcome to Lunch with Jamie.
- [02:23]
B
Hi.
- [02:24]
C
It's nice to have lunch with you, Jamie.
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A
Um, so give us a little just sort of breakdown on where you see things sort of at locally, statewide. As of today, I mean, I think
- [02:35]
C
the story is two parts. One, Californians are pissed and angry and they feel like the system isn't working for them. So you see A lot of unexpected surges from Republican candidates and also deep frustration with the Democratic Party not just for failing to field candidates that the public's excited about, but also for failing to, at least in the case of the governor's office, clear the field. You know, I think one of the important storylines to watch going forward right now, Jamie, and you'll tell me your thoughts on this, is a lot of what the campaigns were about up to now will change as we head into the general. It's going to be a different narrative. You know, there's a lot of panic among Democrats about these Republicans. Both Pratt, who I know says he's not a Republican, but what is he and Hilton getting the advantage of? Two of the themes that haven't come forward in the races so far are issues that those two candidates are likely to really struggle around. One is ICE and their relationship with Trump. California is the most anti mass deportation state there is. And then in the governor's race, abortion has basically not come up. We are the most pro choice state in the nation and Steve Hilton's positions on abortion have not been made evident to most voters. So I think right now everybody's thinking, you know, there's a good chance Republicans could win in both, in both races or seeming Republicans in the case of Los Angeles. And I'm not sure that that's actually going to be the complexion of the race headed toward the general.
- [04:05]
A
Great. And yeah, I mean, listen, I think obviously the race is going to shift dramatically and the, and the focus. And if it really is ultimately Pratt versus Bass, which it looks like it will in the mayor's race. I mean, listen, I don't think anybody can predict what that's going to be. I mean, he has no idea. Just to be totally transparent about anything, about anything. Ye. And but you know, hats off to him. I mean, listen, he, he got, he, he looks like he's going to come in second.
- [04:31]
D
I want to.
- [04:31]
A
Just before we move on to the looking forward a bit, I want to talk. Let's talk about the mayor's race for a second. I. What was really fascinating is how nobody really knew what was going to happen. I mean, it was yesterday. Yesterday's results and where this ultimately lands was so unpredictable, predictable. There were people I heard somebody talking yesterday who had been predicting Spencer Pratt the entire time to win. It was Mark Halpern, I think, who's from Two Way. But regardless, he had been predicting Spencer Pratt to win and then yesterday went online and changed it and thought he wouldn't place in the top Two, he wouldn't place at all. So, Fernando, who I'm very excited to have become close friends with now recently, which is a, which is really great for me because he is one of the most knowledgeable people and a fun person to hang with. Fernando is a professor of political science at LMU and the founding director of the Thomas and Dorothy Levy center for Study of Los Angeles or Study of la. So he really is in the weeds politically like nobody else. And so Fernando, give us a Will you talk a little bit about the race or where you thought it was going to shake out the mayor's race and then and maybe just give us some highlights of some of the other races yesterday where you were either surprised or just any kind of general thoughts?
- [05:53]
D
Sure. I was very surprised that Nithya Rahman did as poorly as she did. I expected Bast to be about where she is and I think she'll actually decline in a percentage. It might be 32, 33% when we see the little bit of the blue wave votes come in. And I think Nithya will go up a little bit, but I don't think it's going to change the dynamics of who finishes first or second. The interesting thing is as a DSA candidate, a Democratic Socialist of America, she never took off at the very same time where she's only getting 22, maybe up to 25% of the vote. You have the city controller, DSA affiliated, going to get over 50% and easily win reelection. And he was outspent like 10 to 1. You're going to have the city attorney where the DSA candidate is going to finish in first place. The two DSA incumbent council members are easily going to win. They were supposed to struggle. They're easily winning reelection. Two other DSA candidates running in other positions, one has made the runoff and probably, even though he has less votes, will probably in my mind be the favorite. So the DSA does extremely well with the exception of Rahman for mayor. And so that to me was very interesting. I totally agree with Jessica that the electorate is pissed off in every poll that we've conducted at the university and that I've taken a look at, the frustration level was high. It was very anti incumbent or anti establishment. And again the voters go, yeah, we're anti establishment. But I like my council member, I like my mayor. It seems to what has happened once again and the establishment has every incumbent council member for the city of la, for the school district, they all won. The only incumbent in trouble is the the city attorney. And so you have this tremendous leftist DSA victory really in la. And then on the other hand, you have the Police Protective League, which is a union for the cops. Probably the most conservative element in LA who totally backed Caruso, spent millions of dollars on his behalf, even though caruso himself spent 100 million, now backs bass. And they also backed all kinds of other candidates. They won basically every race that they got involved in. So you had simultaneously the most progressive element of LA doing extremely well, the most conservative element of LA also doing very well, all Democrats. And so it. What's happening, why and where does Ramen fit into all? And that to me was the most confusing element of this. Part of it is going Back to the May 6 debate. Jamie, you and I were there. I think that sealed the deal. Rahman came out flat underperformed, didn't capture the momentum, the imagination of the voters, etc. Pratt came out and surprised everybody and did capture the imagination. And, and Bass was masterful. She played that debate like Dudamel at the Hollywood Bowl. There were times when she would just step back and let Brad as he was attacking Rahman, other times with Ramen attacking Pratt. And she, at one point he said Pratt said nice things about her and that. That was that. And that was the only citywide debate that most voters saw. And that I think really there was no oomph there for, for Anithya. And then watching afterwards, I mean, her whole, her best speech and performance for this entire campaign was last night, which was a quasi concession speech. And so it was a very disappointing performance. And the, the Pratt taking off took away any of that possibility that Nithya could have been a mum dami type of, of a. Of a star taking off. Because then all the social media and all the intention went to Pratt instead of the leftist potential rising star.
- [10:25]
A
That's really helpful. And I've heard you be relatively critical of Mayor Bass and referring to her as a Dudamel at the Hollywood bowl is the nicest thing probably anybody said in a long time about her. So she'll be happy to hear that. So next I want to go to Julia Wick. Julia is one of the co founders of LA Material, which is one of the most exciting new sources on the scene. Julia came from the LA Times and also laist. So Julia, I'd love to hear from you next and if you're not signed up for LA Material yet, please go and sign up now. It's really great that they've jumped into this city. And Julia, one thing just to have you touch on too, if I'M not mistaken, the dsa, you know, Nithya continues to be called kind of the DSA candidate who. But she wasn't endorsed by the dsa. And if I'm not mistaken, Karen Bass was. Was in, in many ways, I think, even more kind of formally endorsed by more DSA members, which is extremely confusing because she's more moderate than anybody. So it just adds the confusion of this whole election.
- [11:39]
E
Julia, thank you for the nice intro. Yeah, I can unpack that a little bit. So it's interesting with Nithya, the mom Donnie comparisons literally started while she was at the filing area, the New York. When she jumped in on the last day of the race, the New York Times sent a push alert, literally while she was in there kind of signing up. That compared her to Mamdani in the lead and maybe also in the headline. And those really never. Those comparisons really never bore fruit. I think in part because if you were following New York politics, Mamdani had been running for basically a year. He really had time to build that momentum and build that energy and also really have the full support of their local DSA chapter. And whereas the LADSA chapter. So when Raman got into the race, the local DSA chapter had already decided they weren't going to endorse. They voted on whether or not after Rahman got in, whether they were going to reopen that process, both to consider Rahman and to consider Ray Wong, who's kind of a far left activist candidate, who wasn't considered that serious. And they ultimately decided not to endorse either of them. And so the difference there is the LADSA chapter, which kind of has gained a lot more prominence in the last six years, has really good ground game and they really go out for their endorsed candidates. So they ended up recommending Rahman in their voter guide, but they weren't doing any of their ground game. And then what you were referencing about the DSA members, I believe you're talking about the members of council. So this is super interesting. Back in 2020, Rahman was the first council member or the first insurgent sort of challenger to oust an incumbent on LA city in almost 20 years. And she did that with the support of the dsa. Since she came in, three other council members ousted incumbents with DSA support. They all backed Bass. And that was a complicated dynamic. I think some of that was just like real politique of the fact that the mayor holds a lot of power and they didn't necessarily want to go against her. Some of that, I think, was to do with the fact that Rahman had occasionally split from them on various decisions and, and then I think a good part of it probably came down to the fact that she got into the race so late and I don't think people necessarily felt included in her kind of late entrance.
- [13:58]
A
Yeah, I think that's all really smart. I mean, I think the way she entered the race maybe set her up from failure from the start in many ways. I mean I heard some, I've heard a lot of people just be really angry. Another thing that was really interesting when you look at the organizations that were supporting or vote, I always look at the voter guides and there was, I looked at the LA Voter, LA Forward voter guide and the Streets for All and LA Difensa and all these voter guides and so many of them still came out for Nithya, but it just didn't seem to really connect. We're going to go over to Alex Cohn who is with us as well. Alex is an award winning journalist and is currently reporter and anchor at Spectrum News. And I got to meet Alex sitting next to her at the debate just randomly and another person I become obsessed, obsessed with. So I'm very thankful she's joining us.
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B
Thank you. Pleasure to be here.
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A
Yes. So love to hear sort of, you know, we're, I don't know, 12 hours, you know, 24 hours out from voting election Day. We talked about the fact that we're gonna have a new dump of votes today at 4 and or 5 and that's gonna happen every day coming up. So where's your head at on the races and some of the stuff that everybody's kind of been talking about?
- [15:15]
B
Yeah. I will point out to what Julia just noted in the chat. It is not done yet and we don't even really need to look that far back to recall when Karen Bass was against Rick Caruso. Rick Caruso had this big strong lead at the beginning and then we watched over time as things really flip flop and that could certainly happen here as well. I don't think anyone can 100% say for sure that this is going to be a Bass Caruso run up or a Bass Ramen run up. Similarly with the statewide races by just one district up north said their next ballot dump isn't going to be until Friday. So we all. Which is just. I know it's crazy making but there is a reason and it might well be worth talking about later as to why our results are so slow and kind of crazy making. There is a purpose to that. But I also completely agree with Julia about the fact, like, it would drive me nuts when I would see all these mostly east coast papers saying that Nithya equals Mamdani. And that's absolutely not the case whatsoever. I think it's a lot like in Hollywood, you know, one movie does great, so everyone tries to replicate that. There's going to be a million and one back rooms now, but you don't ever have the exact same lightning strike twice. And I think that's definitely true in LA politics as well. And yeah, I think a lot of people were really taken by surprise as Julia mentioned the fact that literally at the 11th hour after endorsing Karen Bass, that Nithya decided to run. And what I thought was one of the most clever moves for Karen Bass campaign team, the day that she picked up, I believe it was Ugo Soto Martinez and Eunice Hernandez's endorsement. It listed, here's every single council member that is endorsed Karen Bass. And the very bottom of that list with an asterisk next to it was Nithya Rahman. And it noted the date that she did it. And I think we've seen, you know, it's perspective. I think Nithya Raman and her supporters would call it an evolution in thought, but other people would call it a betrayal of thought. Where she came in gung ho on ULA and then had a change of heart. There were all these position on, you know, on lapd where she, it seems to many promise different things to different elements of la and that's hard to do and then make good on all of those promises. Whereas Karen Bass is trying to please all the people all of the time, and that maybe hasn't worked out tremendously well either.
- [17:46]
A
Yeah, well said. And Fernando, will you take us quickly through as. As quickly as you can? We are getting more votes today. We're getting a lot more votes over the next coming week. What do you think? I don't want to have you make a prediction, but I'm going to. What do you think, knowing the numbers more than anybody on what's really coming in and historically, like, what do you think's realistic that could happen? Like, could. Obviously anything's possible, but both in mayor race and let's talk about the governor race too, just briefly, what do you think's realistic?
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D
Yeah, I have absolutely no problem making predictions. I have tenure and so that's not a. That's not an issue for me. I'm not a journalist that could easily be fired like on 60 Minutes or anyplace else. So I'm perfectly fine Making a prediction. And my prediction is that in fact, the, the, the way we see the top three in both the governors and the mayor's race will stay in that order. However, the numbers are going to change. You know, in the governor's race. If you take a look at two years ago in the election that ended up with Adam Schiff, that senator in the primary, Republican Steve Garvey, got more votes than Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. And what did he get? He got about 38%. You add Hilton and Bianco and what do they have? 39%. And they'll probably decline a little bit as the blue wave eats up a little bit of that. You're also going to see the blue wave is going to help style a little bit. So that's, I think, going to tighten up between Steyr and Becerra, but not enough to change those numbers. So it could be at the very end where you'll get, you know, it'll seem a lot closer with Hilton around, you know, 26 or so and Becerra at 24 and Steyr at 21, 22. And that's going to really look tight. I think that's my prediction for that. In the mayor's race, you're going to see, I think, Karen bass stay around 35, 33. I'm surprised that this first, the second dump actually pushed Pratt a little bit higher. I expected him to stay the same or be a little bit lower. I still think he's going to be a little bit lower given the blue wave. And you'll see Nithya move up a couple of points. But nonetheless, the.
- [20:10]
A
She.
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D
She won't be able to catch up across the board. Jessica's right about the, the frustration, etc, but I do not see and can' find anywhere where Republicans overperformed in terms of what their vote total should be and the expected vote total, including Pratt, he's overperformed a little bit. But if you take a look, he clearly didn't overperform. Caruso, not a fair comparison. He was a former Republican, then a Democrat, and millions of dollars. He has overperformed Trump a little bit in the city. When you take a look, how did Trump do two years ago in the general election? He got about 26, 27% of the vote in the city of LA. And so there's not this major wave of. I just. Pratt, to me, is not a political phenomena. He's more of a social phenomena that happens to be in politics. And I just don't expect that he will be competitive And I'm willing to predict that Bass will beat him by more than she beat Caruso in November.
- [21:18]
A
I can't wait to take that prediction to the bank there. Jessica, I know you have to leave us in a few minutes, and Fernando mentioned something about 60 minutes, which you and I have talked about. But then, in addition, I'm curious. The national media played just an insane role in this election. I mean, Spencer Pratt was on CNBC last weekend. He was on Fox News. I mean, he was doing things mayor candidates have never done before. So would you mind giving your perspective? I know 60 Minutes is kind of a different top beast, but on the national media, and if you can weave 60 minutes and what's happening there into it in some eloquent way, which I know you can, please do.
- [21:57]
C
Yeah, you know, it was interesting to hear what Fernando's saying. And I agree Spencer Pratt is a social media and an attention phenomenon. But one of the weird things about our world is that was true of Trump as well. The very beginning of Trump's campaign in 2015. It was just this weird thing that this guy who was a reality star was running. And what happened? The national media kept going to him and kept going to him and gave him outsize attention. And this is what really matters. When everybody is diagnosing what happens, it's not just that that one candidate gets attention, it's that the other candidates cannot get anywhere close to the same amount of air coverage. So I guarantee you, if you add up all the time Karen Bass has had on national media in her term, it probably cumulatively close to what Spencer Pratt has had just in the last few months would be my guess. Yes. So the problem is this imbalance. And when the national media, like exposure is the, you know, fuel of voter awareness, name recognition is half the battle. And we do see these weird things where the national media drives outcomes by who they choose to give attention to. So there is this sort of like off the grid, weird physics factor where Spencer Pratt, because he's famous and because the national media loves to tell that story, could give him more of a leg up than he would otherwise have. And I'll just make a side note on that, Jamie, because I think you'd appreciate this, which is the national media also loves to say that LA is a wasteland of shallow people who are surrounded by zombies taking fentanyl all day. Right. They love to say LA is horror, horrible. So it's a story that they like to tell. So that's just out there as a possibility in if Pratt is in the race. And I think it's incumbent on Angelenos who follow media to let them know, I want to see all our candidates get this kind of coverage. That's one thing. And the other is, yeah, our media is in this very vulnerable place right now. I mean, it's a whole other conversation. But what happened at 60 minutes last night is deeply concerning. Not just because it's a workplace drama between one of the most legendary journalists in America and new management. And they're obviously having a clash over values news. But in a bigger sense, 60 minutes is rare and iconic because it is the one truly independent outlet that does deep dive, long form investigative journalism that holds power to account. And this is crucial and has a mass audience. Its audience has actually been growing. Its revenue is up. It is a rare success in news. So you can point to other outlets like Frontline does great investigative reporting. There are all sorts of creators and new news brands doing it too, but they have niche audiences. Some of them don't have the funding to take on the scariest stories where there's real threats of lawsuits. And finally, as you know, we also thrive on platforms where if some tech elite decides to tune the algorithm to silence reporting on AI data centers, they can do that overnight. And so if, if 60 Minutes isn't safe, what is? And that's my real concern today.
- [25:08]
A
Well, that's probably a topic for an entirely other conversation. I know you have to go. Thank you for joining us. No, no, but I think, you know, just to end on that and, and you know, that's another reason why local journalism has become even more important. And I think what Julia is doing at LA material, what Alex does at Spectrum, what Fernando and his center do, all these things are so critical. But we can't give up on these big national platforms. I always say a democracy doesn't really work if you can't get the facts to the people. And that's something that's very concerning. So thank you. Thank you. Jessica. Good to see you. Okay, we can jump around now. One of the things that we've talked a bit about, Fernando and Alex, we were talking about is the LA and California ballot. I mean, I can only speak to the LA ballots. I didn't see the San Francisco ballot or other places. But. And I'm going to be honest, like, I am a little embarrassed. Like, I don't even know how 60 people show up on the ballot for governor. I mean, I literally don't. I don't even know. I mean, can anybody just run? I mean, is There. Is there any rule to be running? And so you know, Fernando, maybe I'll go to you if you're going to be the stats and figures guy. Like, what is. How do you even get on the ballot for California? California for governor or mayor?
- [26:31]
D
I won't bore you with all the details and the steps, but you do have to do certain documentation. Not difficult to do. You then have to pay $3,500. It's a little bit less than that because it's a percentage of the salary of the governor's position. Believe it or not, that that's the filing fee. So it's $3,500 a little bit less than that. Right. And then you have to get 65 signatures. That gets you on the ballot. If you don't want to pay the 3,500, you can collect 10,000 signatures. All right. And as you're collecting the signatures, if you only get a thousand, they actually reduce your fee by 10%. And so it's relatively easy. If you have $3,500, you can run for governor, Jamie. And you should have. I think you could have spared the $3,500. And that's it. That. That is all that it is required. Right. And so I totally agree. We need to is really increase the number of required signatures, not suggested signatures. 65 is all that's required, really.
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A
Well, listen, thank you for suggesting I should run for governor. Scott Galloway suggested I run for mayor. You're suggesting I run for governor. You know, I was hoping for dog catching, which I didn't see on the ballot. I kept 65 signatures and 30 $500. I mean, has that. I'm sort of speechless. And. And the same thing goes for mayor. About. Is it similar about.
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D
It's actually, I think a little bit more difficult for mayor, so.
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A
Interesting. Alex.
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B
Yeah, I just, I also want to chime in just to like election nerd out for a moment. And I think there's a greater purpose to all of this. To remind folks that our city elections used to not align with these major elections. This is how Eric Garcetti got the extended dance mix term that he got. And I think that the overall lesson and bottom line of all of this is be careful of what you wish for. You just might get it right. And the whole reason, and this is true with our open slash jungle primaries, this is true with election spending, all sorts of things. The reason we did it is because we saw really low turnout on local races and we thought, well, everyone turns out for the big races. Like, let's align these. And I think that was a really smart and great idea. But then what's the flip side of that? We have these ballots that are just go on and on and on. And I think that exhaustion over voting is very real and very understandable. And then, like, by the time you get to the judges, people are like, oh, screw it, I'm not even going to cast my ballot on that. And likewise, I think, you know, like I said, with the top two primary. I was just at a conference last week at the USC Schwarzenegger Institute with all these election reform folks who were like, all hot and bothered, bothered to talk about ranked choice voting and open primaries and someone who's very close with Arnold himself. I was like, gotta tell me how dude is feeling about the fact that this open primary at one point looked like it was driving California to an election with two Republicans in the general. And he said, look, you know, Arnold doesn't want to comment on this right now, but I think it's. Everything looks good on paper. And then there's the law of unintended consequences with all of these things that have to do with our electoral process. We want to set the bar low so that anybody can be governor, but then you wind up with 61 people on the ballot, including Eric Swatwell, who had dropped out and betting me. There's no perfect system. I think the bigger question is what is the best way to actually keep us in a solid democracy? And that's a hard one. It's a hard one to answer.
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D
I would say that this is the best way that I would say that. Let me make one statement here. Nowhere in America is it easier to vote than in Los Angeles County. Nowhere by far. Okay. I would also say that I, and I have to plea. I was, I was the president of the Election Reform Commission that moved the elections from the odd to the even years. And one of the main arguments was, oh, people aren't going to pay attention to the mayor's race. Nothing could be further from the truth. It was actually more important four years ago, and the city actually had higher turnout than the state did four years ago. And that might be true. Again, I don't know if it will be. And so you're right. There's nothing perfect. But again, the top two. Two. It, it, it worked. Again, we've never had two Republicans or two Democrats running for governor since we've had the top two. And of the nine positions, we only have the insurance commissioner right now that's going to have two Democrats. And so everybody worries about, oh, this is going to happen, but it doesn't happen. The top two works the way it's supposed to work. I would say if you take a look at the, at the results and, and then waiting for election results. Yes, it's frustrating for us right now, us right here. Most people have gone on their way already and started to do their daily jobs, etc. It will have absolutely no political policy or even campaign impact that we will not know the total results until tomorrow, Thursday or Friday.
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B
But you know where it will have impact. Fernando, and I really, I wonder your take on this. I totally agree with everything you have to say, but I make the mistake, my mistake of going on exit during these times because it's where you kind of see the most immediate reactions and it is flooded right now. I mean, like, not a surprise with people saying, oh, it should never take this long in California to count results, therefore it's fraudulent. Which just adds to this like huge tornado of misinformation that's out there. And that's my concern. I think all of the reasons why we won't know the fact that we allow, you know, registration later, that we allow mail and voting, I fully believe in all of that. But I'm worried that the messaging around why we do that and how we do that hasn't been strong enough to go up against this tie to folks on tick tock saying all of our elections are right.
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D
Yeah, but they would have said that if it wasn't for the delay or the time that we take. They would have said that about universal bullpen mail. They would have said that about immigrants. They would have. So, yes, they're picking on that one issue. They would have selected something else else. Once Trump and that whole machinery said elections are fraudulent, they were, they have all kinds of different ways of attacking it.
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A
Can I, can I ask you guys your opinion? And you know, I spent a lot of time trying to figure out who to vote for and I'm honestly still feel like I was nowhere near educated enough on the things I voted for. And I was, I didn't want to abstain. I pulled in as much information as I could from friends who I trust and what I read. How is the average person supposed to vote on these measures? How is the average person supposed to vote on these judges? I mean, it's really, I mean, I'm, I mean, on one hand it's sort of a crazy question because it's like, obviously it's a democracy, we want to vote on everything. But like, what? Like, I mean, It's. I don't. It doesn't mean we should just vote on three people and let them choose everything for us. But in theory, we're supposed to vote on our representatives and then they're supposed to be educated and informed and make decisions. I mean, was there a time when that actually happened and the dam broke, or should we go back towards something like that? Should be taking ton of these things off the ballot. What do you. What's your. What do you. What do you think? You know anybody? I mean, Julia, you're seeing it in the weeds from people, from a lot of people, probably in your discord and other things of people talking about these things. Like, what do you. What do you think?
- [34:25]
E
It's really interesting, you know, I think one thing that we lost this election cycle is, is the LA Times endorsements. This is the first cycle in who knows how long where we didn't have them. And I do actually think it's really a loss for voters. And it's funny because I was a long time before I started LA material, I was a reporter at the LA Times for seven years. So when I was a city hall reporter, I hated the endorsements because so few people understand that it's separate from the newsroom. So I was always getting flack for who we had endorsed or hadn't endorsed. And I hated that as a reporter. But they're so well reported. The team who has all unfortunately left the paper now, who used to do them, really, they are opinion journalists, but they would run down and report out and do huge amounts of research on these races, on these candidates, on these ballot measures. And I think that was really a public good to have the largest newspaper in the region doing this. And I think there has not really been something that has filled the void yet. Obviously the L A T Times editorial board had something of a political bent, but it wasn't, you know, super far left or super far right. And they also at times would, you know, kind of have unorthodox choices too. Beyond that, I think it's really hard. I think people really tend to rely on proxies. So whether it's, you know, you're an environmental voter and you're looking to either like an environmental influencer or something like Sammy Roth's new substack or Sierra Club or whatever it is, like whatever you kind of gravitate towards, I think people. People seek those out. And I also think we've had a really interesting trend the last few cycles of sort of regular people kind of becoming mini voting influencers to their friends and family. Where you see Joe Schmo putting up here's my ballot recommendations and times. Joe Schmo is literally your neighbor with, you know, 100 followers. And sometimes it's like a LA comedian or something like that who has a few thousand or a larger platform. People who really are not traditional kind of political voices because there's such a, such a vacuum of information really tend to fill that as well.
- [36:26]
A
Well, let me just quickly follow up on that as an, as the independent person here, Julia. I mean, you guys didn't do a voter guide.
- [36:34]
E
No, we did not. And that was a very conscious choice.
- [36:36]
A
Well, obviously. And was that partially because you were so new or partially because, I mean, because, listen, that would have been really helpful. I mean, as I was going through voter guides, like I've, you know, gotten to know you guys and I trust your opinions, but you didn't have have one, so why didn't you.
- [36:48]
E
Thank you, by the way, for trusting our opinions. We did not. Because we feel really strongly that there's quite a bit of opinion journalism and quite a bit of sort of political opinion news. And we feel really strongly about being completely independent in that respect and not kind of having any one political viewpoint. We want to be, you know, holding power to account sort of from all sides and looking at stories from all sides. And I think it is. And again, having been an LA Times reporter where you're kind of taking the flack as a reporter for what endorsements are made, I know how much trouble people have separating out the kind of opinion side from the straight news side. And that's at a really big institution. So it just felt like as a new site that also really cares about being politically neutral, it wasn't a step we wanted to take.
- [37:42]
A
Julia, you're sounding a little like Jeff Bezos and his defense of his Washington Post. Of the Washington Post, his choice there. But no, listen, that's the, that's obviously the challenge, but I guess, I mean, so what's the answer? I mean, Alex, Fernando, I mean, you know, and again, I shared my thoughts with people, but I'm very nervous to share my thoughts because I don't feel like I'm, I'm again, I just don't have the time in the day to be. You have to, you have to have, you have to be unemployed or have a part time job to be able to really be educated on all the, the things you're voting on. Alex, you have a point of view?
- [38:18]
B
Yeah, I do. Well, there's a. Yes and Here also, I've never in my life seen an election where I talked to so many folks who really just felt broken and frustrated because they felt like there was the vote for the person based on the person they liked the most, whose policy they liked the most. And then there was the strategic vote. And those were a lot of times a lot of these races, two very different things. And I saw people really struggle with that, which has an impact, which is also why we were really seeing people who held on to their ballots until the very last moment, waiting to see with some new scandal going to emerge, what's the latest poll say in the governor's race? Right. Who's got the best chance of beating Steve Hilton. And there's a real ripple effect to that. The other part of it, which Julia mentioned, and she's absolutely right, is that we are no longer in any way, shape or form living in the media ecosystem that we have been for many, many elections. And the impact of that, I don't think people are even fully aware of it. And we saw it with debates, right? How many debates got canceled? I will tell you personally, I was involved with a lot of debates that tried desperately to get a media partner to broadcast it. And it was a hard pass for everybody. And the reason why was it costs a lot of money to, especially when you're talking broadcast and telev, a lot of money to do that. And sadly, TV stations know there's very limited return on something like that. People aren't really tuning into full debates anymore. They're looking for the clips on social media the next day. And then it becomes like this Bermuda Triangle because then the candidates don't want to show up unless it's going to be broadcast. So I can tell you about a million and one debates that were supposed to happen and never did this season. And the person who gets punished the most is the voting public because it's one less opportunity to not only really see candidates, but in a very different way where it's not their campaign team. Showing you the two seconds. Like, I watched the entire Sherman Oaks Homeowners association debate between Nithya Raman and Karen Bass. And then I saw how both of their campaigns spun it, and it was like three completely different realities. And that's my real concern. With so much of traditional legacy media basically vanishing before our eyes. It's like you said, like, every comedian or wannabe comedian's got a voter guide out there. But why are we trusting them to tell us who to vote for? And there's very few media Institutions that have the time, the resources or the energy to put out those complicated and complex guides that we're used to. I think that's that.
- [41:02]
E
Alex, give us the goss on the debates that didn't happen.
- [41:05]
B
Oh my gosh, there were so many of them and some of this actually is public. There was one the Trans Latina Coalition did that they literally sent out eventbrite tickets for and then it got changed because one of the candidates who had previously committed said that they couldn't come. And then they planned a whole other forum to accommodate that particular candidate. And then in the 24 hours run up, that candidate canceled. And so then the other candidate canceled. Is very similar to what we saw with the debate that my father was going to do right at the Pat Brown Institute. And it just, it becomes this cyclone of things. And you know, we saw some of. I especially felt for some of the other candidates like the Ray Huangs and the Adam Millers of the world who were like, I will show up to any debate anytime and be a part of it. But then once the kind of front runners backed out, then the organizers would cancel the whole thing because they didn't think it was the worth doing. And it's a really bad vicious cycle.
- [42:09]
A
Let's jump to the fall. I mean, I, I'm not sure I can emotionally handle five more months of Spencer Pratt, so. But that's what we have. I'm excited for policy conversations and back and forth on what people are going to do. We're not going to get much of that, if any of that. And we're going to get a lot more trashing of Los Angeles. And if I hear again that there are 40,000 naked drug addicts having sex outside schools, I may just lose my mind. Last I checked, that wasn't on the top thousand issues of LA voters, but it does seem to be working for Spencer Pratt. So what are some predictions for the fall? I mean, listen, people keep saying to me, me, you keep saying there's no chance Spencer Pratt can win the election, actually. And I now I. What I said to someone today was, listen, he's one of two people. It's like being. When you're nominated for a Best Actor as an Oscar and you have 1% chance, you're still, you have more than anybody else outside those five. But you know, who wants to take the first stab on some of what we're about to experience and what we should expect in the fall? Julia, you go.
- [43:23]
E
I want to highlight an under the radar race that I think will be One of the most interesting races in LA county, which is the city attorneys race, a role that doesn't get much attention, but one of the more powerful positions at LA City Hall. It's one of three city wide elected positions with the Mayor and the city controller and it's a dual role. You're both the city's literal attorney and then you also prosecute misdemeanors to the degree that we prosecute prosecute misdemeanors in California. But already that's sort of like an unlikely kind of duo in a role. As of now, the incumbent City Attorney Heidi Felcing Soto is just looking like she is heading for a bruising defeat. She's at less than 20% of the vote. The DSA endorsed challenger Marissa Roy is at 37% of the vote. And then John McKinney, a more conservative prosecution or LA conservative, so really more centrist but pro law enforcement is it basically 33% of the vote. So it looks essentially impossible at this point for Heidi Feldstein Soto to make it to the runoff. So we're already seeing an incumbent ousted and Roy again who has the DSA's actual endorsement and has been really backed by them and has said she wants to run the city Attorney's office like a public interest law firm is going to be up in the the fall against a pro law enforcement prosecutor. And so it is really going to become, I think another referendum on where Angelinos stand on law enforcement and criminal justice issues. And it's going to be I think a heavily partisan race and bipartisan. I again mean leftist and centrist Democrat because that is partisan in Los Angeles city.
- [45:02]
A
Yeah, I was surprised that obviously I think most people are to supposed surprised at that. Is there any. Let's, let's. I know because all the fans want to talk. Spencer and, and Mayor Bass. Fernando, I know you have to leave a few minutes early. Are there any sort of final comments you have on either that or. Or another topic or what's or.
- [45:22]
D
I mean the city attorney race is going to be fascinating because I just mentioned this ironic result where the ppl, the Police Protective Union, the very conservative law enforcement force in the city which probably spent like $5 million in the primary for different things. Right. They are going to completely back John McKinney and the DSA is going to completely back Marissa Roy and it's going to be nasty. Now there's no incumbent, so they do have to talk about policies because they're not going to be defending things that they did in the past in the office. So that will be one thing, but that will show you whether the city is going to be leftist or this more conservative. McKinney is a Democrat. Okay. And so I'm not saying that he's a Republican. Spencer Pratt stands absolutely no chance to winning the mayoralty in Los Angeles. I know previously they say, hey, he's. Trump lied like celebrity. He's taking all the oxygen. He's going to have a lot of media. Don't underestimate him. Okay, let's say all of that is true, that he's exactly like Trump. Let's even say that he's better than Trump at politics. The, the comparison is, is not just Trump, it's the city of LA and national politics. They're not the same electorate by far. Louisiana is so progressive. You know, Donald Trump himself obviously couldn't win. He only got 26, 27 in the city. The, the idea that LA, one of the most progressive cities, would support him is just, it's. I mean, not only do I predict he's going to lose, he's going to lose more than. By, more than Caruso lost. Okay. And then there was a question. How does he outreach? Who does he outreach to too? He can't outreach to the law enforcement people. They've already supported Bass. So he's not going to get organizational money or foot soldiers from there, number one. Number two, the business community. No, all this, all the, you know, the LA Chamber, Vika, they've all already supported Bass. He's definitely not going to get the DSA and the people who voted for Nikki Ram Common, where does he expand his, his support? They're just, it's, there's nothing there for him to go and get in my perspective. So I, I just don't think that the, that's in the cards that he will be able to come up with the majority. He might overperform because he might bring out additional voters and like Trump was able to bring out additional voters in Pennsylvania. Different areas. Areas, yes, there are additional voters in la, but not that many to make the difference. And so that's, that's my prediction that you know for sure Mayor Bass will win reelection in November.
- [48:25]
A
I'm gonna, I know you have to go, but I would say, I know Alex is chomping to chime in, but I do want to say one thing. I know Alex wanted to talk about prediction markets just for, just for color. On May 4, Karen Bass had a 29 change chance of being reelected mayor. As of right now, she has a 74% chance of being reelected mayor on Kalshi. So if you wanted to bet on May 4, it was 29%. Now it's 74%. Spencer Pratt has a 15%. And what is really interesting is that Nithya Rahman, as of this second has a 13% chance. So only 2% less than Spencer Pratt. And she's predicted not even to be in the runoff. So, Alex, what were you, what, what are you chopping at the bit to say?
- [49:10]
B
Well, with all due respect, because I think Fernando is one of the most brilliant minds in politics in la. I want to hearken back to what Jessica Yellen said about Donald Trump and where the media was seeing him and you know, a lot. When I cast my mind back to 2015, the person I remember most is NPR senior political correspondent Mara Liasson. Every time she mentioned Trump's name, she would let laugh. She just as if, like, can you believe it? There is no and look where we are now. Never say never to anything, especially not in this town. And if you listen and watch Spencer Pratt, which I do a lot, he doesn't say darn thing about Donald Trump or being a Republican. He talks all the time about all the Democrats who support him. And I think Fernando's right, like the Vikas and the business groups and police units, all of those top line institutions have already aligned themselves with Mayor Bass. But the actual cops walk in the beat and the small business owners, a lot of them are all in with Spencer Pratt because I think that they really hone in on this sense of anger and frustration. And as much as so many people want to write off everything that Spencer Pratt is saying, there are kernels to truth in it. And if there's one person I think that people should read this week, I want to give a shout out to Sam Quinones, who's a brilliant local journalist who has covered the drug trade and industry forever and knows it better than anyone. And he wrote a really great substack this week about those zombies that Spencer Pratt keeps referring to, which in my mind, like, I really hope he does what he says he would do. Last night debate Karen Bass, Every Friday, I hope I get to be a moderator for at least one of those. And one of the questions I would really like to sit down and ask him is, is who in your life has struggled with addiction? How has that worked out in movies, right? Because he keeps saying, like, we ship them all off somewhere. But you know, anyone who's dealt with anyone who struggled with addiction knows it's not that simple. And this Metaphor of the zombie. What do we do with zombies? In every zombie movie and TV show, you cut their heads off. So is that your plan for LA's zombies? So I think people write them off because it sounds so, so outlandish. And yet what Sam writes about is that super myth that Spencer Pratt likes to talk about. It is a very real substance. It is a very scary situation and the psychosis it brings and all the rest of it. There are actual facts in that. I would never call a human being a zombie. But this drug and what it has done to really light the homelessness situation on fire, if we can't address that part of it, and if I, you know, I think Karen Bass really needs to start addressing that part of it, then I think his chances maybe not of winning, but of gaining some serious traction between now and then are more sizable than what Fernando says. I will also say that anything could happen between now and November. Ice raids, earthquakes, terrorist attack, God forbid, anything like this could be a huge benefit to Mayor Bass's reelection or it could be a huge detriment and nobody knows what's on the table for that.
- [52:28]
A
I think that's really well said. To Fernando's point, I just put in the chat, you know, bass is at 34%, Rahman at 22%, Miller at 4%, Huang at 3%. You have to assume, you know, 75% of those votes go. But to your point, they go to Bass. But to your point, anything is possible and there are big events that are coming up and something could go drastically wrong, you know, not. Knock on wood. Fernando, do you want to say anything else before you have to go or
- [52:53]
D
No, I think I would take everything that Alex just said. I will still stick to my prediction. In addition, there will probably be an additional 200,000 voters voting in the mayor's race in November than voted yesterday. Okay. Most of those tend to be younger, Latino, working class and progressives. Some of those will disproportionately go to Pratt. But the majority, I believe, will also go to Bass. I just find it hard to believe that LA will change drastically in six months, that it would elect someone like Spencer Pratt. And remember, party ID still drive so much much. Spencer Pratt may never say Trump between now and November and may never say Republican. But believe me, the vast people will spend over 5 to 7 million dollars mentioning Trump and Republican every single time.
- [53:59]
A
Yeah, and I think, listen, I mean, to be honest, that's one of the things that upsets me most about Spencer Pratt is that we could get into a whole Debate about Karen Bass performance of mayor and stats and figures. And no one wants to talk about these stats and figures. And I get it, people aren't feeling these things. But, you know, LA in the last four years, you know, has improved in certain areas. And if he wants to go after how it has improved fast enough or how the city's still broken or more should be done, that's fine. But this idea of painting our city of walking zombies and drug and drug addicts having sex on every street corner and all this stuff, I just, that's the thing. And that's maybe my own issue that I need to seek therapy on over the course of the next five months. And that, that's not someone else's fault, but I can't. It's, it's. He's not an Angelino in that sense. Like, I mean, you take, take pride in your city. You know, that's the, you know, he talks about how he takes pride in a city. He is, this guy does care less about this city. He just cares about being famous and that's all that matters. And that's why he jumped into this, by the way, Same as Donald Trump. Before we go, Julia. Oh, sorry, you have to go. Okay, thank you, Fernando. Thank you. To be continued. Julia, do you have any final thoughts? Thoughts, Alex, do you have any final thoughts?
- [55:05]
E
When does this air?
- [55:07]
A
It's gonna go tomorrow. This will be on tomorrow, so rest
- [55:10]
E
of the week, new vote drops will be coming 4 to 5pm so that's the time to watch for. On the county website for the real sickos who are hitting refresh. I think we'll have a clear answer on or a more definitive answer on the mayoral race by Thursday.
- [55:28]
A
Yeah, I mean, I, you know, we'll see if we have to add a little button on here or tag at the front, any drastic changes. But yeah, I mean, that, listen, that gets back to. And this is probably part two of this conversation. I mean, I looked at. They're going to do ballot drops every day for the next like two weeks they predicted. I mean, just, that's an insane concept. I mean, we have to, you know, someone brought up the question about mobile voting. I had Bradley Tusk on as a conversation not that long ago. You know, we have to figure out a way to solve this. I mean, the fact that we do every, everything by our phone and digitally and, you know, we have a ballot with 60 governors and there's so many things that are broken in this system and, and I, I listen, I want everybody to be able to get on that ballot. To get on that ballot, but get signatures. You know, it shouldn't cost you money. I don't think it should cost you a dollar if you can get, you know, whatever the number is, 10,000 or 20,000 people to say you should run for an office, go run for that office. I don't even think, I don't even know. You know, it shouldn't be a money officer option, but we have to fix that. It's not fair. Alex, any, any parting words?
- [56:33]
D
Just.
- [56:34]
B
Well, Jamie, I take to heart what you said and I feel it too. And I do get paid to keep up with all of this stuff. We have time between now and November. Read up. Start doing your homework. Especially about. Let's talk about races that we haven't talked about. Insurance commissioner. That's a huge race right now. You've got Ben Allen and Jane Kim, two Democrats, but very different, different types of folks that will likely make the runoff. Like, get to know them. I did two forums with both of them. They're online. Go find this. Not just a shameless plug, but you can actually get to see where they're different. In a state that was ravaged by wildfires, this is a really important job. And superintendent of public instruction. This is a really interesting example of what happens when there's so many Democrats right now. The person leading the heat by a lot is Sonia Shankar. Job very close with Donald Trump, one of the most extremely conservative folks on the entire ballot. And this is one of those races that's really important and folks should start like getting to know who's out there, especially, you know, not the major races that CNN's talking about all the time.
- [57:40]
A
Alex, I've been so focused on, you know, the mayor's race and some of these local races that I haven't really focused as much on the congressional races before we go go or Julia. I know sadly, as of now, my, you know, friend and Democrat, Esther Kim Barrett and CA40 is looking like a tough race to get to the finish. But you never know as the other races. How. How's it looking?
- [58:06]
B
Yeah, you talked to Jake Levine when you did your candidate drop by and you know, I think a lot of people have been super impressed by his energy, but it looks like it know that moment. Brad Sherman will be heading to the runoff election. Yeah, I think, you know, I am really interested in this. Ken Calvert, Young Kim, two Republicans who, you know, their district's got Frankenstein together with redistricting. That one I think is going to be really interesting just to see how. Because there's nuances, right? Like, I think the overarching theme of this election is not all Democrats are the same and not all Republicans are the same. And I think that's what I'd be looking for between here in November. November is which of these different strains within the party, the more progressive, the more moderate, the more Trumpy, the more traditional Republican. Which of those is really going to emerge as the front runners will be really interesting to watch.
- [58:56]
E
And the other thing I would just add, because I know it can be a little bit confusing, we were talking about these local races where some of them are not going to a runoff because a candidate has gotten more than 50% of the vote. That is only for local races. So. So for state races for Congress, the top two go to a runoff no matter what. So no one is winning outright in those in June. Another congressional race I'm really interested in is the Jimmy Gomez seat. I'm blanking on the number, but that's an LA area congressional district that includes Eagle Rock, other parts of the city, around there, Northeast la. And on Election Day, the news broke from CNN that there was an ethics investigation into Gomez relating to this New York Post story from about a month or so ago about him allegedly kissing a staffer of another congressperson at a party which he had initially denied and then apologized for. In his apology, he said, you know, it was consensual and I didn't break any ethics rules, but I'm very sorry for what this has done to my family, etc. And he is being challenged from the left by a candidate who's endorsed by Justice Democrats, which is a national political group, really far left, that helped a lot of members of the squad, including aoc, unseat incumbent Democrats. And this is their first California race they're really putting a lot of resources into. So it'll be really interesting to see in November how. How that goes, particularly with Gomez, particularly made, possibly made a little more vulnerable by this ethics claim.
- [60:32]
B
And speaking of sexual harassment allegations or sex scandals, if we will, I saw someone had asked about Lieutenant Governor, and as of this moment, leading the pack is the Republican Gloria Romero, in no small part because there are quite a few Democratic candidates right now leading the pack. There is Fiona Ma, who's really interesting. There have been a number of sexual harassment allegations there as well, but she really pushed through that, especially considering Josh Friday, who with Gavin Newsom, who didn't weigh in on the gubernatorial candidates, but did endorse Josh Friday. Fiona Ma is well ahead of him, at least at this juncture in time. So Lieutenant governor does not have a whole lot of power responsibility but as we saw with Gavin Newsom can be one of those real big steps stepping stone. So one to watch.
- [61:23]
A
Well thank you guys very much. This election is now going to be national media and national news nonstop. I wish it wasn't. Even though I love California and Los Angeles being in the public eye in the media focus for the great things about it. I hope this isn't just a mudsling election. I hope, I hope Spencer Pratt decides to talk about policy and facts. I have very little confidence in that but hopefully he'll prove me wrong because I love a conversation about how to make LA better. So thank you all for joining. Thank you guys for what you do. Keep at it and I look forward to seeing you in person soon.
- [62:12]
E
Thank you so much for having us.
- [62:13]
A
All right. Bye guys.
- [62:15]
B
Sam.