Podcast Summary: Lunch with Jamie

Episode: Richard Haass on Trump, NATO, and the Greenland Crisis

Host: Jamie Patricof
Guest: Richard Haass
Date: January 22, 2026

Overview

This episode of Lunch with Jamie features an in-depth conversation with Richard Haass, renowned diplomat, long-serving President of the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of "The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens." The discussion tackles the tumultuous state of global affairs under Trump’s second term, the reshaping of American foreign policy, the chaos in Iran and Venezuela, the Greenland crisis, and the rising uncertainty over US democracy and global stability. While the mood often turns somber, Haass and Patricof also carve out space for hope and even sports talk.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Changing Landscape of American Foreign Policy

Timestamps: 06:08–13:24

• Biggest Shocks of Trump's Administration:
  • Haass identifies three main shocks:
    • Tariffs and Unilateralism: Disregard for treating allies differently than adversaries.
    • National Security Strategy Publication: A codification of reversal from internationalism, an anti-European slant, and focus on the Western Hemisphere.
    • Distancing from Europe / Focus on Russia-Ukraine: A steady withdrawal from alliances and emergence of long-term structural changes.
• Irreversible Change:
  • Haass is emphatic: “Zero chance” (11:20) of returning to pre-Trump norms, regardless of future leadership.
  • Damaged perceptions of US reliability and predictability among global allies and adversaries.
  • "Donald Trump... he's going to be on the short list of the most consequential presidents of the United States. And he will even more internationally than domestically… he's ended an era. Eight-decade run. That's over. That is over." (12:30)

2. Trump’s Motivations and Approach to Foreign Policy

Timestamps: 13:24–17:45

• Trump’s Priorities:

  • Haass doubts Trump’s international focus: "I never thought his big interests were international and still don't." (13:41)
  • Recent attention to military force (“feeling his oats” after Venezuela and Iran strikes).
  • Limited, transactional, heavily personalized diplomacy—rhetoric often outweighs lasting strategy.

• Greenland Obsession:

  • Trump’s attempt to claim Greenland, partly out of “not getting the Nobel Peace Prize,” is seen as a personal vanity project with dire diplomatic consequences.
  • Haass: "It really was a kind of l'tat, c' est moi moment... quite disquieting." (16:23)

3. The Proliferation of Global Conflicts

Timestamps: 17:45–22:46

• Modern-Day Disorder:
  • A looser, less regulated post-Cold War order results in more conflicts—many rooted in state weakness and the diminished US global presence.
  • “We are living in a messier world where there's more capacity and more scope almost for, for mayhem.” (19:20)
  • US diplomatic efforts sometimes overstate successes; Trump’s claims of “ending wars” (like India-Pakistan, Gaza) are unfounded.

4. Deep Dive: Iran

Timestamps: 23:18–33:24

• Current Situation:
  • Severe economic decline, sanctions, inflation, growing public dissatisfaction.
  • Regime’s survival via brutality, token reforms, and fragmentation of opposition: "The regime has never been closer to collapse... but it's still not on the verge of collapse." (27:40)
• US Approach:
  • Haass criticizes US encouragement of street protests—"It was irresponsible. There was no way we could use military force to protect individual Iranians..." (25:20)
  • Preferred approach: “Sanctions, political support for opposition, and strategic patience.”
• On Regime Change:
  • Direct US attempts often end in disaster (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya).
  • “Regime change that we foment from the outside ought to be done very rarely and then very carefully.” (36:45)

5. Civic Obligations & the Fragility of Democracy

Timestamps: 37:25–42:53

• Haass’s Book – The Bill of Obligations:
  • Advocates for a rethinking of citizenship beyond rights to include obligations—be informed, reject violence, promote civility and public service.
  • "A lot of us would probably admit that something's gone wrong. It's on tilt. We've got to fix it." (41:07)
  • Concrete initiatives: civics syllabus, PBS documentary, orchestral project to promote civic values.

6. The Greenland Crisis

Timestamps: 43:33–49:04

• Strategic Significance: US interests in bases and rare earths are real, but Trump’s approach—an attempted takeover—has created an unnecessary, self-inflicted crisis.
• Missed Opportunities:
  • “If Marco Rubio had taken a day and flown over there... They would have said, 'Fantastic, where do we sign?' This is as unnecessary, as avoidable, as self generated a crisis as I think I've ever experienced.” (44:13)
• Possible Paths Forward:
  • Consensual partnership with Greenland and Europe preferred, but irreversible damage to transatlantic trust has been done.

7. The ‘Board of Peace’ and Multilateralism

Timestamps: 49:04–51:45

• Satirical Take:
  • The new “Board of Peace,” headed by Putin and Orban, is called “aptly named” if Orwellian.
  • “The idea that countries have to pay to join it, they have... agendas of self interest rather than simply... promoting peace.” (50:13)
  • Hope it “dies of its own weight.”

8. Israel, Gaza, and Ripeness for Peace

Timestamps: 51:45–55:00

• Bleak Outlook:
  • No serious movement toward peace; leadership on both sides is unwilling and unable to compromise.
  • "I'm sorry to be so pessimistic. And I think both Palestinians and Israelis are going to lose from this. I hope I'm wrong, but at the moment, I don't see much to work with." (54:19)

9. Ukraine and Russia

Timestamps: 55:06–57:12

• Stalemate:
  • Haass argues US lack of commitment enables Putin's hope that time is on his side.
  • Solution: Stronger support for Ukraine—not to retake all territory, but to impose real costs on Russia and induce a ceasefire.
  • “If we wanted to end the war, we could end the war. I believe we could get a ceasefire…” (56:12)

10. Threats to American Democracy & 2026 Elections

Timestamps: 57:12–59:57

• Use of Agencies for Political Ends:
  • Concerns over ICE being used as a paramilitary force, calls for Insurrection Act, and efforts to undermine voting infrastructure.
  • "One of the things we've learned... is not to assume things that, 'Oh, that couldn't happen.' Well, you know what? It could happen." (58:05)
  • Emphasis on building resilience: protecting voting integrity, legal defenses, and citizen turnout.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On US Foreign Policy’s Irreversibility:

  "The idea that there's a return to the status quo ante, zero chance, zero chance. World's moved on." —Richard Haass (11:23)

• On Trump's Greenland Justification:

  "It really was a kind of l'tat, c' est moi moment, I thought for this country and quite as a result, disquieting." —Richard Haass (16:23)

• On Regime Change:

  "Regime change that we foment from the outside ought to be done very rarely and then very carefully..." —Richard Haass (36:45)

• Hope for Democracy:

  "I don’t feel the stuff we’re talking about is impossible ... there’s ways to deal with these challenges." —Richard Haass (62:24)

• On Sports and Hope:

  "Indiana winning last night was an amazing thing, the greatest turnaround in college sports history. It shows what great leadership can do..." —Richard Haass (60:32)

• Jamie on the Giants:

  "If I had it to bet... what's more likely, the Giants making the super bowl in the next five years or any of these crisis being solved? I would vote on the crisis before I'd vote in the Giants." —Jamie Patricof (64:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 06:08 – Tariffs, National Security, and Distancing from Europe
• 11:20 – US foreign policy can't revert to pre-Trump norms
• 13:41 – Trump’s personalization of foreign policy
• 16:23 – Greenland & the Nobel Peace Prize
• 17:45 – A "messier," conflict-ridden world
• 23:40 – Setting the scene: Iran’s domestic collapse
• 27:40 – On regime collapse: “Never been closer, but not on the verge”
• 36:45 – Hazards and lessons of regime change
• 38:04 – The Bill of Obligations and US civic health
• 44:13 – How the Greenland crisis could have been avoided
• 49:04 – The “Board of Peace” led by Putin and Orban
• 51:45 – Dim prospects for Israel–Palestine peace
• 56:12 – How to end the Russia-Ukraine war
• 57:44 – ICE and the risks for democratic integrity
• 60:32 – Sources of hope: resilience, public service, technology
• 64:33 – Jamie’s lighthearted Giants/Super Bowl wager

Tone & Language

The tone is candid, intellectual, and at times wryly humorous—Haass’s directness is balanced by Jamie’s accessible, conversational hosting. Sobering insights about world affairs are leavened with optimism around civic responsibility and light banter about sports.

Further Listening & Reading

• The Bill of Obligations: The Ten Habits of Good Citizens by Richard Haass
• Richard Haass’s Substack: "Home and Away"
• Podcast: Alternate Shots with John Ellis

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