Macro Mondays – “A Regime Shift in Volatile Times” (Feb 10, 2026)

Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Main Theme: Navigating a new macroeconomic regime amid heightened market volatility, the implications of central bank leadership changes (esp. Kevin Warsh), sector rotations, the geopolitical landscape (Iran), and developments in crypto and space tech.

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the recent bursts of volatility across global markets, exploring the factors behind asset-class swings—particularly precious metals, macro regime shifts tied to growth, inflation, and liquidity, and their consequences for investors. Andreas and Mikkel also dissect potential changes in U.S. monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, surges in corporate capex, major geopolitical tensions regarding Iran, and current sentiment on crypto and space technology investing.

Key Topics and Insights

1. Market Volatility & The Silver Crash

Timestamps: 01:39 – 03:47

• Recent volatility recap:
  Markets started the week calmly after a prior “silver crash,” but volatility surged mid-week across various asset classes.
• Volatility contagion:
  Andreas explains volatility in one area (silver) often triggers mechanical risk reductions (forced de-risking) in others due to fund risk management protocols.

  “When you get such a volatility shocker…your models…risk managers, they will tell you, okay, you have to run less risk in this trade for it to have the same impact on your portfolio as it had 24 hours ago.” – Andreas (02:37)

• Rotations observed:
  The volatility shock led to pullbacks from consensus trades, affecting everything from data centers and tech stocks to other metals.

2. Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: A Regime Shift?

Timestamps: 05:39 – 08:23

• Warsh’s policy allegiance:
  Analysis of Kevin Warsh’s historical statements shows his positions change based on the administration in power—an indicator of potential policy flexibility.
• Emerging formal coordination:
  The hosts argue there is a drive toward more explicit cooperation between the Fed and fiscal policymakers (e.g., the Treasury), notably more formalized than previous experiences:

  “We're starting to talk about monetary policy that always supports the notions of the administration, and that is potentially incredibly bullish…this is a regime shift in many ways in the Federal Reserve System.” – Andreas (07:08)

• Trump’s supermajority risk:
  If Trump gains greater control over the Fed, policy alignment with administration goals could intensify.

3. Macro Regime Model Update

Timestamps: 08:23 – 14:33

• Move from ‘QE-like’ to ‘Gung Ho’:
  Their macro regime tracker indicates a shift: decent private liquidity is now also joined by improving cyclical growth, while inflation stays low.

  “The big game changer now is that we see cyclical growth returning…while inflation remains very low and liquidity remains on a positive trajectory.” – Andreas (09:43)

• Impact of U.S. Capex Boom:
  Surging corporate capex, especially incentivized by bonus depreciation rules (the “big beautiful bill”), is seen as a misunderstood yet powerful force boosting growth.
• Inflation outlook:
  Consensus forecasts on inflation (e.g., 0.3% per month) are viewed by Andreas as too high, with actual readings likely to be lower—a factor supporting tech and consumer discretionary stocks:

  “The biggest surprise…is probably that we get CapEx cyclical spending and low inflation at the same time. To me that's a regime shift relative to what we've seen the past four, five months.” – Andreas (12:33)

4. Sector Rotations: Tech, Real Assets, Consumer Discretionary

Timestamps: 13:05 – 14:33

• Past winners, new opportunities:
  The environment that favored precious metals and rotation into “real assets” (industrials, energy, consumer staples) is fading.
• Renewed strength in tech and discretionary:
  Lower inflation fortifies the case for tech and especially consumer discretionary stocks: better purchasing power benefits companies like Amazon and Tesla.

  “When inflation comes down, the average consumer is better equipped…to also buy things that are slightly more discretionary in nature.” – Andreas (13:55)

5. Crypto: Political Winds and the “Clarity Act”

Timestamps: 14:33 – 17:37

• Election-season pivot:
  Trump’s renewed spotlight on crypto (and disappointment in current administration policy) makes the sector a battleground for votes and donor money.
• Is it still contrarian to own crypto?
  Crypto’s mainstream acceptance feels “less contrarian,” says Andreas.
• Impending legislation:
  Critical meetings—including the Trump camp, crypto firms, and banks—are being held on the “Clarity Act.”

  “One thing I can guarantee you is that Donald Trump wants bitcoin in new all time highs by the midterms. I mean that would be a very important gauge for him.” – Andreas (17:19)

6. Space Tech: Musk’s Moon Missions & Market Consequences

Timestamps: 17:37 – 21:33

• Musk’s pivot “to the moon”:
  Elon Musk’s SpaceX has shifted its narrative toward the Moon, possibly aligning with NASA ahead of a potential IPO.
• Speculation on investments:
  The “space tech trade” is seen by Andreas as chiefly about missile defense (the “golden dome”), not futuristic ventures like lunar data centers:

  “The space tech trade is first and foremost a bet on missile defense…much more tangible than…let's build a city on Mars.” – Andreas (20:43)

• Current AI/tech rotations:
  This year’s high-beta “AI” trade is a space/missile-defense story, not quantum computing, unlike last year.

7. Iran: Looming Geopolitical Volatility

Timestamps: 21:33 – 24:34

• State of negotiations:
  U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations have broken down, with new talks scheduled and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expected in DC to press for military action.
• Market risks:
  An Israeli or U.S. strike on Iran, possibly later in the week, is characterized as a “big risk” for markets—impacting volatility and likely driving up oil prices.

  “...A US or an Israeli strike in Iran this week…is obviously going to have huge impacts. Both typically in the short term drive volatility into markets uncertainty. But…but slightly longer term also in, in oil markets which are already showing signs of, of, of, of an increasing oil price.” – Mikkel (22:55)

• Cynical aside:
  Andreas jokes about the mysterious fate of world leaders after meeting with JD Vance.

8. Portfolio Implications & Final Thoughts

Timestamps: 25:13 – 27:26

• Portfolio shifts imminent:
  Expect changes in the Steno Research model portfolio in response to the regime shift—the increased credit/liquidity backdrop will buoy assets.
• Fed-Treasury cooperation means more credit:

  “They're trying to orchestrate a credit bonanza as we saw back in 2005-2007. Trump knows this is his last term so why not just give everyone a loan until the end of this cycle?” – Andreas (25:31)

• Skeptics are missing the shift:
  “Wall Street consensus is off on inflation…While cyclical growth is coming up, it's hard not to be upbeat for the returns over the next couple of months here.” – Andreas (27:10)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On volatility’s spillover:

  “When you get such a volatility shocker as the one you got in silver…volatility in one asset class leads to a spike in volatility in other asset classes and a pullback in positioning.” – Andreas (02:18)

• On the new Fed regime:

  “Monetary policy that always supports the notions of the administration…is potentially incredibly bullish…this is a regime shift in many ways.” – Andreas (07:08)

• On underestimated Capex story:

  “The CAPEX window this year is one that you're going to utilize no matter whether you want it or not…due to these bonus depreciation rules…so you're incredibly incentivized.” – Andreas (10:33)

• On inflation consensus:

  “I'm not sure why every single analyst is stuck in this 0.3% every month mindset…I don't think any of these people actually run the numbers, which keeps surprising me.” – Andreas (11:59)

• On political crypto dynamics:

  “Crypto will be a battlefield ahead of the midterms…one thing I can guarantee you is that Donald Trump wants bitcoin in new all time highs by the midterms.” – Andreas (17:18)

• On space tech:

  “The space tech trade is first and foremost a bet on missile defense…not the quantum trade. The quantum trade was last year.” – Andreas (20:55)

Key Takeaways

• Regime Shift: Markets have transitioned into a regime defined by rising cyclical growth, robust liquidity, and subdued inflation—creating opportunities, especially in consumer discretionary and tech sectors.
• Fed Watch: Kevin Warsh’s prospective role signals a potentially more cooperative—and expansionary—Fed/Fiscal policy outlook.
• Geo-risk: Iran-related tensions represent a material near-term risk for volatility, especially in oil and commodities.
• Politics & Crypto: Crypto policy is now a political football, with both parties vying for influence; legislation may accelerate price moves ahead of US elections.
• Space Tech Focus: The surge in “space tech” equities is likely grounded in practical defense applications, not outlandish near-future scenarios.

For Listeners:

If you want more actionable macro content, detailed trade ideas, and ongoing portfolio updates (including this regime shift’s implications), check out Steno Research on Real Vision or their website.

This summary cuts to the essence of the episode, highlighting the actionable ideas, geopolitical context, and the hosts’ inimitable mix of analysis and wry humor.