Macro Mondays Podcast Summary
Episode: Are AI Stocks in Danger?
Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen, co-host Mick Rosenwald
Platform: Real Vision
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into the recent volatility in technology and AI-related stocks, the persistent debates about the possibility of an “AI bubble,” and broader macroeconomic themes driving markets into 2026. Andreas and Mick dissect recent data, monetary policy actions, and sector-specific concerns, addressing questions from listeners about the U.S., Japan, Bitcoin, private credit, global trade, and the outlook for a holiday “Santa rally.”
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Recent AI Sell-off & Macro Backdrop
- Market Recap: The week saw notable weakness in tech stocks, particularly AI/data center names, despite dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
- AI Bubble Fears: Recent disappointing earnings from Oracle and Broadcom stoked “AI bubble” concerns.
- Andreas’ View: The sell-off is "fully unrelated to the Federal Reserve meeting...we got the most dovish message...but it still hasn't really been enough to turn the tide on everything tech related." (03:01)
“We're back to talking about AI bubbles, especially in the mainstream media... There is still some stress related to this AI tech buildup story that is not going away.” — Andreas (03:38)
- Market Stress: The optimism at market open “faded very quickly,” underscoring ongoing investor anxiety around AI and tech.
2. Parsing the “AI Bubble” Chart
- Oracle’s Cash Flow: Mick references a chart showing Oracle’s negative free cash flow despite good net income.
- Andreas’ Take:
“The difference between the two here is basically the CapEx going into the AI build out for Oracle... CapEx impacts the free cash flow immediately while you use depreciation to slowly but surely depreciate your capex investments in the net income over time.” (04:50)
- Growth Stock Dynamics:
"This picture of capex diverging from net income, you've seen that before in growth cases. So I don't necessarily think it's an issue. The issue is mainly related to the potential lack of return on investments." (05:57)
- Outlook: Elevated CapEx is only a problem if ROI disappoints; Andreas remains “upbeat” on AI and sees investment as healthy if profitable.
3. U.S. Regime Models: Inflation & Growth
- Upcoming Data:
- Inflation and nonfarm payrolls prints are in focus.
- Unusual element: Upcoming inflation report covers two months due to data collection delays.
- Inflation Baseline: Model probabilities suggest a high likelihood inflation will fall below current levels; any surprise will be toward lower inflation.
- Growth:
“We've had a government shutdown... paired with the trade standoff between Xi and Trump... that double whammy ultimately had to show up.” (08:45)
- Fed Policy Implications: Market should expect continued Fed rate cuts; U.S. stands out vs. other central banks for likely easing into next year.
4. Labor Market Softness
- Jay Powell’s Admission:
"Powell... said that the Fed considered the non farm payrolls to have overstated the job creation by 60k jobs a month, meaning that we're actually running below zero if they're right." (10:41)
- Context: Shrinking labor force makes low job creation less worrying, but it provides “a good excuse to cut interest rates.”
5. Private Credit & Market Liquidity
- Sector Shift:
- Previously, private credit’s weakness signaled broader market liquidity stresses.
- Recent data shows a “substantial rebound” in private credit, which Andreas sees as a positive sign for Q1 2026.
“This is essentially some kind of a live bellwether of what's going on in the liquidity space...” (12:16)
6. Bitcoin & High Beta Assets
- Listener Question: Has 2025 been a disaster for Bitcoin? Why?
- Four-Year Cycle Skepticism:
“Everything related to this discussion on whether we have a four year cycle... so far been proven right. Maybe that's a coincidence. I think it is.” (14:26)
- Liquidity Watch: Andreas expects U.S. dollar liquidity—the “pain level”—to improve “by mid to late February,” likely supporting risk assets and Bitcoin.
- “The Federal Reserve will buy roughly 40 billion over the next month... they'll increase the pace a little bit ahead of the April tax season, which should bring us back above pain levels... at the very latest around 1st of March.” (16:21)
7. Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Japanese Markets
- Listener Question: Should investors worry about Japan’s possible rate hikes, given history?
- Andreas’ Historical Context:
- BoJ has a pattern of being the last to hike in cycles; this time is “not an ordinary cycle,” with business cycle dynamics and debt sensitivity altered by the pandemic.
- Positioning:
“We had a three standard deviation position in dollar yen back in 2024... now we’re much closer to... neutral territory.” (20:35)
- BoJ Communication Strategy: Expect a hike, but expect “no promises at all to do anything related to tightening from here”—designed to minimize market impact. (21:58)
8. Japanese Buying of Treasuries
- Spread & Hedging:
“The important thing is whether there's a spread pickup in U.S. Treasuries relative to local bonds, especially when you adjust for... hedging currency exposure.” (22:58)
- No Big Shift Expected: Andreas notes no present signals of large Japanese sales of U.S. Treasuries, and the Fed’s rate cuts lower the cost of hedging for Japanese investors.
9. U.S. Dollar Outlook
- Listener Question: With Fed/ECB divergence, what should we expect for the dollar?
- Andreas’ Rule of Thumb:
“When you see a growth uptick both in the U.S. and in Europe, that's dollar negative... when trade improves globally, it means a weaker dollar and a large distribution of dollars via the trade deficit.” (26:17)
10. The Santa Rally?
- Chances Remain:
“Seasonally speaking, we should actually expect the positivity in December to play out between now and New Year's...we're getting there on a rate of change basis. Liquidity is improving now, but we're still... six, seven weeks away from fully exiting this very narrow, narrow liquidity picture in the U.S.” (28:19)
- Tactical Portfolio Shift:
- U.S. equities are lagging; portfolio is tilted “away from the U.S. to some extent towards Japan, Eurozone, et cetera in recent weeks.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On AI CapEx “Moaning”:
“As soon as we see CapEx a lot of people start moaning about that. Right. So it obviously all depends on whether AI will turn into a good investment or not.” — Andreas (06:13)
-
On the Four Year Bitcoin Cycle:
“We need some sort of an exogenous shock to blow this four year cycle into smithereens.” — Andreas (15:13)
-
On Carry Trade Positioning:
“If you look at the official data available from the CFTC... we have a much different situation than the 2024 carry scare... more people speculating in a positive development in the Japanese yen than the opposite this year.” (20:41)
-
On Seasonality and Market Mood:
“I feel like... the mood is way too negative for a market that’s at or very near all-time highs.” — Mick (28:08)
“But there’s light at the end of the tunnel and much more light than most people see currently.” — Andreas (29:16)
Important Timestamps
- [03:01] – AI sell-off and lack of correlation to Fed
- [04:50] – Oracle chart, CapEx, FCF vs. net income debate
- [07:32] – U.S. inflation and growth regime model
- [10:41] – Nonfarm payrolls: Powell’s comment & labor market
- [12:02] – Private credit “smoke alarm” and rebound
- [14:26] – Bitcoin’s bad year & four-year cycle discourse
- [17:55] – Japan/BoJ rate hike risk assessment
- [20:41] – Yen carry trade positional differences vs. 2024
- [22:58] – Japanese Treasury buying & hedging dynamics
- [25:21] – Outlook for the dollar with growth divergence
- [28:19] – Is a Santa rally still likely? Seasonal patterns
Audience Q&A Highlights
- Several listener questions were addressed, especially on Japan’s interest rate path, U.S. dollar prospects, and the sustainability of the Santa rally.
- Thursday’s Ask Me Anything (AMA) session was advertised for even deeper dives.
Conclusion
Andreas and Mick acknowledge ongoing volatility in AI and tech, tempered by improving liquidity under the surface and fundamental macro tailwinds—especially as rate cuts gather steam heading into 2026. They present a cautiously optimistic scenario for risk assets, advise ongoing vigilance on global liquidity trends, and advocate for global diversification, particularly into Europe and Japan. The episode wraps with a cautiously positive outlook for a December market rally, though full relief could be up to two months away.
Summary Prepared for Listeners Who Missed the Show
This episode provided deep macro context for AI stock volatility, addressed pressing questions on U.S. inflation and labor, parsed digital asset performance, and provided tactical insights for navigating the winter and upcoming year. The tone was data-driven, nuanced, and sprinkled with the show’s characteristic humor and transparency.