Macro Mondays – Episode Summary Podcast: Macro Mondays
Episode: Are We in an AI Bubble?
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen
Guest/Co-host: Miguel Ozenval
Date: October 21, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of Macro Mondays dives into the question: Are we in an AI bubble? Against the backdrop of recent market volatility, host Andreas Steno Larsen and co-host Miguel Ozenval unpack current trends in tech, AI company valuations, unprofitable tech rallies, and the interplay between retail and institutional investors. They also address recent geopolitical market drivers—especially US-China tariff tensions—and their real macro effects, as well as the prospect for a late-cycle melt-up in equities and crypto.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Volatility & The “AI Bubble” Question

• [03:10]–[05:00]
  Miguel introduces the central debate: Are AI stocks in a bubble, and is profitability the right metric to evaluate them?

  • Andreas (and a comedic excerpt from "Silicon Valley") highlight how markets often reward potential rather than current earnings—especially in tech.
  • Example: Quantum computing firms trade at massive valuations despite being years away from profitability.

  "It's about what you're worth. And who's worth the most? Companies that lose money."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, channeling "Silicon Valley", [04:25]

• [05:17]–[08:30]
  Historically, cycles where monetary policy eases during a cyclical upswing (e.g., 2020, late 1990s) see unprofitable tech dramatically outperform.

  • Clear parallels are drawn to the current cycle.
  • Quantitative tightening is likely ending, potentially paving the way for further liquidity and rallies in speculative growth names.

  "In this kind of environment you can actually make money trading stuff that doesn’t make money... Best example for this year is the whole quantum space."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, [07:07]

2. Dissecting Recent Market Turbulence

• [08:30]–[09:06]
  Miguel recaps the past fortnight, suggesting last Friday’s selloff was driven by US–China trade war fears (spurred by a Trump tweet).

• [09:06]–[10:44]
  Andreas expands: Realized volatility was highly compressed before the shock, so it didn’t require much to spark a selloff.

  • Asserts: 24/7 markets amplify these shocks.
  • Recovery followed quickly after positive signals from US–China negotiations.

  "I don’t think it’s a good idea to have 24/7 markets as long as you have geopolitics as important as they are right now."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, [10:13]

3. Crypto’s Pain & Social Media Rumors

• [10:44]–[13:39]
  Miguel shares the crypto market remains under pressure despite broader recoveries, partly fuelled by wild rumors (Trump pledging 0% crypto capital gains, Xi Jinping buying up Bitcoin).
  • Andreas is skeptical, identifying a coordinated "SoMe" (social media) campaign behind such rumors—a stark contrast to negative campaigns against quantum stocks.
• [13:39]–[14:32]
  Retail and high-net-worth investors have been consistent dip-buyers in tech and US equities, even as institutions held back.
  • Draws a compelling parallel with 2020’s bull market psychology and mechanics.

4. US-China Tariffs: Macro Impact vs. Market Hype

• [14:32]–[17:08]
  Miguel and Andreas discuss the real economic cost of renewed tariffs: It’s a “nothing burger”—estimated to hit just 0.3–0.4% of GDP.

  • The administration is quietly reversing some sectoral tariffs.
  • Despite market panic, the macro effect is minimal.

  "It is a nothing burger. At least it doesn’t warrant the amount of attention that it’s been given since April. It’s completely blown out of proportion."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, [16:10]

5. Crypto Positioning, Retail Psychology, & the AI Space Correction

• [17:34]–[20:28]
  After the recent leveraged washout, crypto sentiment is "incredibly bad"—often a contrarian buy signal.

  • Noted retail “dream chasing” and impatience for outsized returns in both crypto and risky tech.
  • Discussion of whether the AI trade, particularly semiconductors, is at risk of correction: Upcoming earnings (Nvidia, etc.) are critical.
  • Asian export data (notably from South Korea) suggest global trade—and thus tech asset momentum—has not peaked.

  "Unless this trade statistic has peaked, the global economy has not peaked yet...This will tell you where the ISM is in two or three months."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, [22:54]

  • Anxiety over "Black Monday"-style events is overblown compared to actual recent volatility.

6. Outlook: Rate Cuts, Melt-Up Potential, and End-of-Cycle Signs

• [25:20]–[27:41]
  The Fed is expected to cut rates very soon; key watch point is whether balance sheet action (liquidity provision) is also imminent.

  • Monetary conditions are tight enough that action is warranted.

• [27:41]–[30:10]
  Listener Q: Could the “opposite happen”—a Q4 melt-up after the liquidation crash?

  • Andreas: Yes. Historical precedents (1999, 2020) saw high volatility alongside all-time highs—often leading to the final, “maniac” stage of the cycle.
  • He expects at least six to twelve months more of such conditions.

  "You're...want to participate, you don't want to miss out...but you're also very scared every week. Is this it? Is this it? Is this it?...It will be a very maniac market."
  —Andreas Steno Larsen, [29:20]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the logic of speculative tech:
  "If you show revenue, people will ask how much? And it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x or thousand xer becomes the 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue. You’re a potential pure play."
  —Andreas, echoing "Silicon Valley", [04:09]

• On the true cost of tariffs:
  "We're talking about a shock effect of between 0.3 and 0.4% of GDP, which is, in the broader context, pretty much nothing, burger."
  —Andreas [15:17]

• On current market phase:
  "I consider it very likely now that we see these observations that we're within six, nine months peaking in this cycle...But it’s incredibly rare that we peak during the first couple of observations with high volatility and equities at all time highs."
  —Andreas [27:56]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:10] Are we in an AI bubble? The profitability paradigm and “Silicon Valley” logic.
• [05:17] Historical context: unprofitable tech rallies in easy monetary cycles.
• [08:30] Recapping recent market selloff—Trump, China, and volatility mechanics.
• [10:44] Crypto market pain, rumor mill, and retail investor sentiment.
• [13:39] Institutional vs. retail flows: echoes of 2020.
• [14:32] The real macro impact of renewed tariffs.
• [17:34] Crypto positioning, retail psychology, AI correction risk.
• [20:28] Asian export data, global cycle lead indicators.
• [25:20] Monetary policy expectations: rates, balance sheet, and liquidity.
• [27:41] Listener question: Q4 melt-up and maniac end-of-cycle behavior.

Tone & Language

The episode fluctuates between analytical and conversational, with dry humor (“sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit” trade ideas), candid skepticism (on crypto rumors), and clear analogies to past market cycles. The hosts display seasoned cynicism, especially when discussing policy and the sometimes-absurd narratives driving frothy tech and crypto valuations.

Conclusion

In sum, Macro Mondays paints a nuanced picture: While speculative fervor in AI and tech shares many similarities with pre-crash phases of previous cycles, macro data, and liquidity outlook suggest there is still room left—potentially months—before the cycle truly peaks. Retail investors are leading the charge, particularly in unloved corners of the market, while institutional money remains wary. Despite headline risks and volatility shocks (tariffs, Trump tweets), the underlying economic impact appears muted, leaving the door open for a final “maniac” phase and melt-up. Crypto may rebound, particularly as cycle positioning resets.

For deeper dives into trade ideas and macro portfolio positioning, listeners are directed to Real Vision Pro.