Macro Mondays – Episode Summary

Episode: Bitcoin Soars, Japanese Bonds Buckle
Date: October 6, 2025
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen with co-host Miklo Rosenwald
Theme:
This episode dives into recent exuberance in crypto markets (specifically Bitcoin’s rally), significant changes in US and global labor markets, the ongoing automation and CAPEX boom, major political-economic shifts in Japan, and evolving portfolio strategies in a world where traditional economic signals are being rapidly redefined.

Episode Overview

A lively, in-depth breakdown of the week’s top macro stories:

• Bitcoin’s meteoric rise and where we are in the cycle
• Shifting US labor market dynamics and the paradox of weak jobs numbers in a strong market
• Japan’s surprising recent moves and potential regime change
• Global trends in CAPEX, automation, and how politics fuses with markets
• Actionable trading and portfolio insights, all delivered with candor and a signature mix of seriousness and humor

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Portfolio Performance & Macro Returns

• Opening on a high note, the hosts boast a ~75% YTD return (Real Vision Pro Portfolio), outperforming traditional indices unless, as Andreas jokes, “you’re like a complete crypto degenerate.” [02:05]
• Recent strong returns were attributed to thematic investments in drone technology, AI, and moves anticipating weak US labor reports.
• Political regimes and fiscal policies have become strong investment drivers in 2025, replacing some classical macro signals ([02:05]–[03:26]):

  “A lot of the returns… have been driven by stuff coming out of the Trump administration, out of the European Commission, out of the Japanese administration. So it’s a mixed bag of goodies, but boy, it’s been a ride.”
  —Andreas, [02:05]

2. US Labor Market: Shrinking Workforce & Automation Shift

• The hosts analyze the first negative private payroll print (ADP) in recent memory ([04:27]), despite the stock market surging.
• A shrinking labor force (driven in part by migration reversals and enforcement like ICE crackdowns) is fundamentally reshaping economic expectations:

  “When you orchestrate such a dramatic change to migration policy and by force shrink the labor force… We’re talking about an economy in mismatch between supply and demand for labor.”
  —Andreas, [04:52]

• There’s little need for large job creation—25k jobs/month may now suffice.
• Automation and capex-heavy cycles are accelerating as a direct result.

Memorable Moment:

• Andreas quips about economists struggling this year:

  “We’ve seen a year of almost extreme humiliation of the economists as a class. They’ve really struggled to keep up with everything that's been ongoing.”
  —Andreas, [02:29]

  Timestamps:

  • Negative private payroll print & labor market trends: [04:27]–[07:08]
  • Fed’s likely continued rate cuts and distorted incentives (money fueling data centers, not jobs): [07:24]–[08:11]

3. Crypto Cycle: Where Are We?

• Speculation on Bitcoin’s Cycle:
  • The show features three “hot takes” from social media, including one (half-mockingly) suggesting that October 6, 2025, should be an all-time high, per prior cycle durations ([09:21]). Both hosts agree such numerology is entertaining but not predictive:

    “Well, wow. I guess we’re living in the matrix if this is true… We just need Laurence Fishburne to pop on the screen.”
    —Andreas, [09:21]

• Are Governments Buying Bitcoin?
  • Not yet, not in the West; most nation-state ownership is in the global south or from confiscations ([10:22]–[11:35]).

    “It’s very, very early days… especially from the Western governments.”
    —Andreas, [10:22]

• Retail Expectations vs Reality:
  • Amusing discussion about unrealistic retail hopes (e.g., turning $1,000 into millions overnight).

    “If you want to get rich out of $1,000, you need to buy some SpotCoin, Anus Coin, I don’t know… We’re too far into the cycle of adoption to really get those kinds of return profiles in Bitcoin overnight.”
    —Andreas, [12:29]

• Hosts suggest this attitude could fuel “alts season”—as money seeks higher-risk/higher-reward bets beyond Bitcoin. [13:17]

4. Japan: New Leadership, Private Credit Revival, & The Shift Toward Fiscal Dominance

• Potential new PM “Take Ichi” (confirmed mid-Oct) is rhetorically likened to Thatcher, but in practice, is a spender and populist. [15:22]
• Her approach marks a move toward fiscal dominance and away from central bank control, echoing global rightward and populist trends (US, Italy, possibly France soon).

  “We’re moving rightwards, toward the fiscal budget being used actively, and toward the central bank losing control. It’s a very uniform direction of travel globally.”
  —Andreas, [16:35]

• Private sector money and credit creation in Japan are finally reviving after decades:

  “When you allow the yield curve to function again… it allows the typical private credit creation process to restart. We’re seeing the private system creating money again after a decade of zero money creation by private commercial banks in Japan. That’s apparently good for Japan—the Nikkei was up 5% this morning. Jesus Christ.”
  —Andreas, [18:24]

5. Inflation, Tariffs, and Inventories: The Slow-Motion Price Cycle

• Inflation probabilities: Dropping despite expectations; forward inflation swaps remain too elevated ([20:21]).

  “We’ve been waiting for this big inflation spike. It’s slowly but surely showing up, but at a snail’s pace compared to what was expected.”
  —Andreas, [21:03]

• Tariffs on metals (especially copper): Led to huge forward buying/inventory stockpiling, muting immediate price shocks—it’ll take a year or more to normalize inventories ([21:06]–[22:57]).

  “Executives weren’t sleeping under a rock… we have a big inventory of copper, imported without duties. Tariffs take time, and they’ll be massaged in very slowly into 2026.”
  —Andreas, [22:10]

6. China’s EV and Energy Grid Boom: Shifting Composition of Industrial Growth

• China’s industrial production is pivoting away from construction and cement, toward expanding its electrical grid and especially EVs and solar ([23:26]).

  “They really made a swift change to their vehicle strategy overall… I spent all of Sunday looking at EVs… The Chinese EV makers do a good job.”
  —Andreas, [23:26–24:33]

• Massive copper demand for new energy infrastructure.
• Solar (not wind) is now key: “It’s all AI. It’s the only feasible way to grow the operational grid size at the pace that’s needed.” [24:33]

7. Energy Bottlenecks and AI: Electricity Is Now the Limit

• Tech bottleneck for AI/data centers is no longer GPUs—but raw electricity ([25:32]).
• In some US states, up to 40% of electricity consumption is devoted to data centers ([26:04]):

  “We have a couple of states with 40% data center usage of total electricity consumption—absolutely bizarre.”
  —Andreas, [26:04]

• This drives portfolio shifts into nuclear and other energy positions.

8. Portfolio Outlook and Q4 Seasonality

• Q4 typically sees strong markets (“tremendous seasonality”), but Andreas urges fundamental confirmation. [26:49]
• Positive signals: Manufacturing picking up, inflation undershooting expectations, global growth steady—good time to remain fully invested.

  “When inflation is coming down relative to expectations and growth is coming up… it’s hard to ask for more. There’s a decent Q4 ahead of us.”
  —Andreas, [26:49]

• Self-aware closing joke about not “buying a Lambo” despite strong returns—signaling prudent restraint.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Macro Uncertainty & Humor:
  “Summertime, it may be good, sometimes may be shit.”
  –Andreas, referencing their trade disclaimer, [01:34]
• On Bitcoin Cycle Numerology:
  “Are you taking the green or the red pill, Mikkel? That’s the question.”
  –Andreas, on the ‘matrix’ of Bitcoin cycle predictions, [09:21]
• On Private Credit Creation in Japan:
  “It’s apparently good for Japan. I mean, Nikkei was up 5% this morning. Jesus Christ.”
  –Andreas, [19:23]
• On Investing Returns:
  “I haven’t bought a Lambo yet. No, not yet. And I didn’t even look at a Lambo.”
  –Andreas, [28:00]

Important Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------|------------------| | Portfolio returns & themes | [02:05]–[03:26] | | US labor shift & automation | [04:27]–[07:08] | | Fed’s reaction to weak jobs | [07:24]–[08:11] | | Crypto cycle ‘predictions’ | [09:21]–[10:22] | | Gov’t participation in Bitcoin | [10:22]–[11:35] | | Retail psychology in crypto | [12:29]–[13:17] | | Japan’s new PM & credit revival | [15:22]–[19:23] | | Inflation, tariffs, inventories | [20:21]–[22:57] | | China EV/grid industrial shift | [23:26]–[25:32] | | Data centers/energy bottleneck (AI) | [26:04]–[26:32] | | Q4 outlook & portfolio approach | [26:49]–[27:53] | | Lighthearted “Lambo” close | [28:00]–[28:09] |

Final Thoughts

"Bitcoin Soars, Japanese Bonds Buckle" reflects the rapidly shifting ground under global markets—crypto cycles, labor market mechanics, monetary and fiscal policy, and where investors should position themselves amid uncertainty. The hosts balance insight, irreverence, and caution, making for an episode rich in actionable takeaways and sharp macro commentary.

Catchphrase take-home:
“Sometimes may be good, sometimes may be shit.” The new macro normal.