Macro Mondays – "Dalio: The World Order Has Broken Down"

Podcast Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Date: February 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This Macro Mondays episode delves deep into the current macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, exploring market rotations, the disruptive impact of AI, central bank policy outlooks, and the shifting global order—with references to Ray Dalio’s “world order breakdown” thesis. The conversation is wide-ranging, including actionable trade ideas (especially in gold, oil, and equities), candid reflections on AI fears, and clear perspectives on the decoupling between the U.S., Europe, China, and Russia.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Rotations & AI Disruption

[03:10–09:44]

• Sector Volatility:
  Andreas explains that the “kiss of death” from AI is moving from sector to sector, hitting SaaS, logistics, and financial services.

  “We have this kiss of death going from sector to sector to sector at the moment, and it's quite tricky to navigate, to be honest.”
  —Andreas, [03:10]

• AI in Practice:
  Recent industry reports show AI-driven productivity surges (e.g., a trucking company claiming 300% volume increase without extra costs).

  “Then all trucking companies basically fell out of bed. Not an AI story that I had on my plate, to be honest.”
  —Andreas, [03:28]

• Our Own Jobs at Risk:
  The hosts candidly reveal that 90-95% of their business work is now automated via AI agents.

  “Between 90 and 95% of the work that we typically have the team doing, the two of us, has now been automated by agents, and I sincerely mean it.”
  —Andreas, [03:49]

• Capex Frenzy Among Hyperscalers:
  US tech giants ("Max 7s"—Microsoft, Apple, etc.) are seeing free cash flow plummet due to heavy AI-related capex, raising investor uncertainty about future returns.

• Capex vs. Buybacks:
  Investors are torn: Is it better to invest heavily in AI or return cash to shareholders? Results from Andreas’s poll on X showed a 50/50 split.

  “The result is a 50 50. The survey right now basically means that no one's got a clue.”
  —Andreas, [07:54]

• Long-Term Faith:
  Andreas, while admitting that “markets typically punish capex until results are seen,” argues future returns are likely underestimated.

2. Inflation, Fed Policy Outlook, and Macro Backdrop

[09:44–14:28]

• Recent Inflation Data:
  Despite some outliers (e.g., spike in auto registration and parking fees), inflation prints remain consistently softer than expected.

  “We've had, I think, 10 inflation reports since Liberation Day and the added tariffs and seven of them came in substantially softer than expected.”
  —Andreas, [10:17]

• Fed Rate Cut Expectations:
  The market expects no dramatic moves before Kevin Walsh becomes Fed Chair in June. Andreas sees a scenario where Powell might push for one last cut.

  “I think it would be a feasible scenario to expect him to try and orchestrate maybe one cut before leaving office just to get there in one piece.”
  —Andreas, [12:15]

• Divergent Growth:
  US shows signs of cyclical acceleration while Europe is slowing, which has implications for asset prices and relative strength of the dollar.

3. Global Order, Decoupling & Geopolitics: Dalio, Munich, and Macro Risks

[14:28–18:19]

• Ray Dalio’s Thesis:
  Mikkel promises a detailed summary of Dalio’s recent article, which posits the breakdown of the world order.

• US–Europe Decoupling:
  Reflecting on Marco Rubio’s Munich remarks:

  “We still want to have beers with you, but friends pay for their own beers and that's decoupling. Europe has to pay for its own independence.”
  —Mikkel, [14:39]

  The shift from US strategic generosity to transactional, “pay your way” relationships signals a new era.

• US–China & Global Supply Chains:
  Decoupling is happening in parallel between the US–Europe and much more significantly US–China, reshaping supply chains and global economic power.

• Middle East Risks:
  US naval buildup near Iran signals “path dependency”—either pressure or potential for a prolonged conflict.

  “The deployment of a second carrier task force tells me that the US Is now building up the option or opening the option of prolonged conflict with Iran.”
  —Mikkel, [16:18]

4. Actionable Ideas: Gold, Oil, Bonds, and Equities

[18:19–28:56]

Gold & Gold Miners

• Cautiously Bullish:
  Andreas maintains a moderate overweight in gold/miners (~5%), but notes the environment is less supportive—dollar strength and the potential for a peace deal in Ukraine could reduce gold’s appeal.

• Geopolitical Risk:
  Russian proposals to reintegrate into the dollar system (“SWIFT,” gold reserves, etc.) could undermine the “sanctions hedging” rationale for gold holdings.

  “The biggest risk to the gold trade is a peace in Ukraine because the war in Ukraine was what started this gold trade.”
  —Andreas, [19:41]

  “If Russia can get their gold back, a lot of the case for these countries to hold as much gold…evaporates.”
  —Mikkel, [21:38]

Oil & Commodities

• Oil as Best Risk-Reward Trade:
  AI-based pattern recognition flags oil as “the best risk reward trade” in a Goldilocks economy (growth up, inflation down).

  “It is the kind of environment where you can actually hold energy and at least parts of the technology space at the same time.”
  —Andreas, [24:03]

Bonds

• Turning Bullish on Bonds:
  For the first time in “a long, long time,” models flip positive on global bonds, with benign inflation and soft long-term yields expected.

Equities

• Supply Chain Over Hyperscalers:
  Andreas suggests focusing on companies supplying to the “Max 7S” (the AI spenders), rather than the hyperscalers themselves.

• Global Dispersion:
  Strong cyclical trends in manufacturing-heavy and emerging markets ETFs (e.g., Poland, Korea) alongside tech semis.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“If we had followed that very simplified logic, it would have left us all driving around bullet cards still, wouldn't it?”
—Andreas, on capex skepticism [09:14]

“We've certainly had a regime shift in truck commodities.”
—Andreas, [25:31]

“What feels incredibly unlikely today was the reality five years ago. ... In five years from now it could be reinstated.”
—Andreas, recalling pre-war Russia trade [22:27]

“This Goldilocks scenario is not priced and we see it every single month.”
—Andreas, on benign inflation and market misunderstanding [27:54]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:10: AI disruption moves through sectors
• 06:50: Capex cycle, Max 7s, long-term investment thesis
• 09:44–11:53: Softening inflation and implications
• 12:15: Fed policy outlook—possible surprise cut pre-Walsh
• 14:28: Marco Rubio’s “beer” comment, decoupling US-Europe
• 16:18: US naval buildup near Iran, geopolitical risks
• 18:19–22:27: Listener question: gold, gold miners, Russia/Ukraine peace risk
• 24:03: Oil/commodities flagged as top trades, Goldilocks regime
• 27:54: Benign inflation/duration trades, underappreciated Goldilocks scenario

Final Takeaways

• Be nimble: AI-driven rotations are causing sector-specific volatility; flexibility and focus on supply chains may offer better opportunities.
• Gold: Watch Geopolitics: The gold case remains but is more fragile, especially if peace deals normalize Russia’s global trade.
• Commodities & Bonds: Oil is a standout macro trade; bond risk/reward is improving.
• Deep Macro Shifts: The US’s shifting global posture and increasing transactionalism signal new rules for allies and adversaries alike, aligning with Dalio’s “end of world order” thesis.

Upcoming:

• In-depth analysis of Dalio’s article on global order (Wednesday)
• AI investment perspectives for tech-optimists (new article drop)
• New episodes and interviews on volatility and AI trading

For detailed trade ideas and further research, see Steno Research and Real Vision Pro Tour content.