Macro Mondays Podcast Summary

Episode: Do Markets Care About Trump’s Tariffs?
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold
Date: February 23, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold dissect the market impact and geopolitical fallout of President Trump’s re-imposition of broad-based tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling invalidating his earlier, more targeted measures. They discuss the mechanics and politics behind the tariffs, ramifications for US-China relations, and market reactions—especially in light of ongoing macro uncertainty. The episode also explores the rapid progress and perceived investment “bubble” in the AI sector, arguing for a contrarian view on the value of current AI investments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Tariffs: Origin, Structure, and Political Ramifications

• Supreme Court Ruling and Trump’s Reaction
  • The US Supreme Court declared previous IEPA tariffs illegal; Trump reacted immediately by issuing broad Section 122 tariffs (10%, then 15%) on most US imports.
  • These new tariffs are temporary (150 days) and require Congressional ratification, which faces significant hurdles.
  • Trump posted on Truth Social insisting his presidential authority to issue tariffs was affirmed, despite the legal pushback ([06:22-06:48]).

Notable Quote:

“I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of tariffs. It’s already been gotten in many forms a long time ago.”
— Andreas quoting Trump’s Truth post [06:22]

• Winners and Losers
  • The immediate beneficiaries are BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India), Canada, and Mexico.
  • European partners and specific Asian economies lose out, with ongoing EU-US trade deals now “up in the air.”
  • The abrupt imposition and lack of negotiated structure create significant uncertainty for trading partners ([02:50-04:50]).

Memorable Insight:

“If the deal is no longer valid, why should we ratify it? Why should we work together with the US... None of the trade deals that were agreed upon last year are currently in motion, to be honest.”
— Andreas [03:19-04:50]

2. Legal and Political Constraints on US Tariff Policy

• Trump’s preferred, unilateral approach to tariffs is being systematically checked by US institutional safeguards—namely, the courts and Congress.
• The necessity of Congressional approval for broad tariffs, especially in an election year, makes implementation doubtful in the medium term ([04:50-06:22]).
• Trump’s stance and attempts to stretch presidential authority are highlighted as examples of checks and balances in action.

Notable Quote:

“This is a proof that the US system is working... Trump is testing the limits of the presidency and the presidential authority. He’s supposed to do that within the Constitution, and then he gets squashed by the Supreme Court.”
— Mikkel [06:48]

3. US-China Trade Dynamics and Geopolitical Chess

• With Trump’s toolkit for targeted retaliation diminished, China is perceived as having a stronger bargaining position ahead of the April summit with Xi Jinping.
• Chinese state media editorials signal Beijing is ready to exploit this advantage, possibly by weaponizing the rare-earth supply chain (“supply chain weaponization package”) as in previous standoffs ([07:48-10:24]).
• The rare-earths issue prompted higher prices for critical metals (gold, silver, palladium) as markets anticipate Chinese moves.

Notable Quote:

“China is readying some sort of supply chain weaponization package ahead of this meeting to try and test whether the US has anything to retaliate with... The playing field is simply not the same.”
— Andreas [07:48-10:24]

• Section 301 Tariffs as a Potential Tool
  • The administration could use Section 301 to levy tariffs in response to unfair trade practices (like rare-earths licensing), but this introduces more legal ambiguity and weakens US negotiating leverage ([10:24-11:33]).

4. Market and Macro Impacts of the Tariffs

• Revenue from the new flat-rate tariffs will not materially offset what was lost; the macro effect is minimal (0.1-0.15% of GDP at most).
• Fiscal and inflationary impacts are “a complete nothing burger”; market and media narratives exaggerate the macro consequences ([11:33-14:17]).

Memorable Insight:

“It’s a complete nothing burger from a fiscal perspective... The market keeps expecting this to have a big impact on macro and it doesn’t.”
— Andreas [11:33-14:17]

• Real economic effects are more pronounced in geopolitics and corporate capex uncertainty than in direct inflation or GDP numbers.

5. Treasury General Account (TGA) and Liquidity Concerns

• Open question: Will potential refunds from illegal tariffs drain liquidity from markets by forcing the Treasury to increase its cash buffer?
• No immediate answers; legal proceedings around refunds could drag on, with no short-term clarity ([14:17-15:38]).

6. Near-Term Macro Outlook

• Tariffs contributed to stalling US cyclical momentum in 2025; similar risks loom if US-China trade deteriorates again.
• No current evidence that the recent tariff drama has slowed the ongoing US economic upswing, but vigilance is warranted into the April summit ([16:06-17:08]).

Segment: Red-Hot AI—Bubble or Value Play?

[17:08-26:20]

1. AI Adoption Acceleration & Model Performance

• Discussed exponential improvements in large language model (LLM) task completion rates (via Claude Opus 4.6).
• Pushback against demands for 100% accuracy from AI—humans rarely achieve that, and “perfection” is not the relevant benchmark for productivity gains.

Notable Exchange:

“You’re completely missing the train if you think this is supposed to have a 100 hit ratio or 100 accuracy... If you ever had employees that you gave a task... 50% is very, very generous as a hit ratio.”
— (Andreas & Mikkel) [19:21-20:24]

• AI is transforming sectors—financial services, SaaS, cybersecurity—but company stock returns aren’t reflecting the technological momentum.

2. Is There an AI Investment “Bubble”?

• Despite historic levels of Capex for AI build-out (higher than prior tech booms), the market’s response is the opposite of a bubble: AI “Max 7” companies are underperforming the broader S&P 500.
• Margin debt is a fraction of dot-com era levels. No sign of speculative frenzies.

Notable Quote:

“All this talk about this being a huge bubble, I don’t really see any quantitative backing of that... The market is extremely conservative and in my opinion also too conservative.”
— Andreas [23:49-25:37]

• As a result, AI stocks may now represent a value, not growth, trade.

Memorable Moment:

“It’s a strong long value trade to belong the Max Sevens... Typically labeled as a growth trade. Right, but it’s a value trade by now.”
— Andreas [25:37-25:43]

Upcoming Events & Closing Notes

[26:20-27:12]

• Tomorrow’s “Macro meets Micro” show will dissect their model portfolio, with focus on top-conviction tech trades.
• Despite market volatility, portfolio thematics are up 2-3% for the year, with major bets up 35% since 2025.

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Tariff Announcement, Winners/Losers: [02:03–04:50]
• Legal/Political Obstacles & System Checks: [04:50–06:48]
• US-China Dynamics & Rare-Earths Chess: [07:48–10:24]
• Market Reaction (Fiscal/Inflation “Nothing Burger”): [11:33–14:17]
• Liquidity and TGA Impact: [14:17–15:38]
• Macro Risks from Tariffs, Cyclical Outlook: [16:06–17:08]
• AI, LLM Progress and Hype Skepticism: [17:08–21:53]
• Is AI a Bubble or Value Opportunity?: [21:53–25:43]

Tone & Takeaways

• The hosts blend skepticism with dry humor (“sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit”) and keep a pragmatic, action-oriented perspective.
• They urge listeners to be wary of macro “hype” from headline narratives and instead focus on actionable, data-driven analysis across geopolitics, fiscal impacts, and tech disruption.

Summary prepared for audiences seeking key insights without the full hour-long listen.