Macro Mondays: "Fed Cuts, Flash Crash, and Geopolitics"

Host: Andreas Steno Larsen
Co-host: Mikkel Rosenwald
Date: September 23, 2025

Episode Overview

In this week's Macro Mondays, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenwald dive into dramatic moves in the crypto markets, analyze the macro impact of US H1B visa changes, discuss heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe, and field listener questions on economic indicators and asset allocation. True to their style, the episode blends sharp analysis, trade insights, and characteristic candor.

Key Topics & Discussion Breakdown

1. Crypto Flash Crash: Liquidity or Lasting Concern?

• [02:07–05:53]
  • Overview: The episode kicks off with discussion of a sharp, early-morning drop in crypto assets (Ethereum down 5%, smaller coins down ~15%).
  • Steno's Insight:
    • The move is attributed to a "liquidity air pocket," not a fundamental shift.
    • Crypto markets often experience flash crashes late Sunday/early Monday due to global liquidity gaps.
    • “If you have cash to deploy, buy it. Because I don't think anything changed versus Friday.” — Andreas [04:57]
  • Context:
    • The host reiterates their macro thesis remains intact, viewing this as a buyable dip.
    • Nascent divergence between crypto spot markets and digital asset equities is highlighted (institutions are cautious, retail is over-levered).

2. H1B Visa Fee Hike: US Tech & Macro Implications

• [08:31–14:47]
  • Background:
    • US proposes a $100,000 application fee for H1B visas, which disproportionately impacts tech sector imports of talent from India and China.
    • “This is very, very much a tech sector thing… lots of them going to Google, to Amazon, most of them from India and China into this.” — Mikkel [08:38]
  • Macro Context:
    • Steno calls the absolute volume of H1B new visas “peanuts” relative to total US monthly job creation.
    • Syphoning top talent becomes challenging for startups and scale-ups who can't afford the $100k application, potentially undermining US entrepreneurship and innovation.
    • “This goes against the very DNA of the US economic engine… If you have a bright idea, you could bring in the right people… This is a roadblock, in particular at the startup scale up phase of your company journey.” — Andreas [13:08]
  • Political Angle:
    • Policy likely to be politically popular ahead of midterms, serving as a tool for Republicans to appeal to voters skeptical of tech sector labor imports.

3. Geopolitical Tensions: Russia’s Provocations & European Defense

• [15:34–19:34]
  • Incidents:
    • Recent violation of Polish and Estonian airspace by Russian drones and jets; US announces scaling down military support for Baltic states.
    • “It’s not unfeasible… markets could hear about a Russian jet being shot down over Finland or Poland… you could have a sudden 1–2% correction.” — Mikkel [17:36]
  • Investment Implication:
    • Highlighting increased risk-premia for European equities owing to potential escalation.
    • Defense sector/digital and drone defense remain key macro themes, with substantial investments anticipated before 2030.
    • “This whole drone technology, air defense space is heavily under invested still.” — Andreas [18:37]
  • Long-term Position:
    • European readiness to retaliate likely increases, but incident risk is not viewed as precipitating global conflict at this stage.

4. Listener Q&A: ISM, Metals, and the US Dollar

• ISM Index Outlook
  • [19:59–22:04]
    • Listener asks when ISM Manufacturing will cross 50.
    • Andreas contends, “It will happen in Q4. When’s peak? Second half of next year.” [22:04]
    • ISM is arguably too downbeat versus realities, due to small, internationally focused sample.
• Gold and Silver Miners
  • [22:49–24:44]
    • Review of gold miners’ ETF performance (GDX up >100% YTD).
    • Steno has supported gold exposure throughout the year, though not currently holding, citing lagged responses in other assets.
    • “I have absolutely nothing against gold miners and gold, and I've said so all year.” — Andreas [24:34]
• US Dollar Trend
  • [24:44–28:49]
    • Question on the future of the dollar as the reserve currency.
    • Steno remains bearish, and views current moves as a response to geopolitical realignment, not the demise of the dollar.
    • “We can go much lower in the US dollar without it being the end of the dollar. Much lower. It's very, very early to talk about that.” — Andreas [27:44]

5. Looking Ahead: Fed Policy and Market Setups

• [28:49–29:48]
  • Highlight: Week ahead includes key Fed speakers, signaling that more rate cuts are likely in the coming months, regardless of political pressure.
  • “We will get plenty of right cuts from here.” — Andreas [29:47]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On trade ideas:
  “Be summertime, it's maybe good, summertime, it's maybe shit.” — Andreas [02:02]
  (Humorous disclaimer about the unpredictable nature of their trade calls.)

• Crypto Flash Crash as Opportunity:
  “If you have cash to deploy, buy it. Because I don't think anything changed versus Friday.” — Andreas [04:57]

• On US H1B Policy and Innovation:
  “This goes against the very DNA of the US economic engine… This is just another example of it being challenged.” — Andreas [13:08]

• European Defense Stocks:
  “This whole drone technology, air defense space is heavily under invested still.” — Andreas [18:37]

• Dollar Trend and Geopolitics:
  “We're talking about the very early innings of what is a tectonic shift in the geopolitical space.” — Andreas [25:38]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp | |------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Crypto Flash Crash | Causes and reaction | 02:07–05:53 | | Crypto vs. Equities | Institutional vs. retail divergences | 06:33–08:31 | | US H1B Visa Policy | Macro and political implications | 08:31–14:47 | | Geopolitical Tensions | Russia, European markets risk | 15:34–19:34 | | Defense Sector | Underinvestment and portfolio implications | 18:37–19:34 | | ISM/Manufacturing | Outlook and macro signal discrepancies | 19:59–22:04 | | Gold/Silver Miners | ETF performance and outlook | 22:49–24:44 | | US Dollar | Reserve currency, macro shifts | 24:44–28:49 | | Fed Policy Outlook | Rate cut expectations | 28:49–29:48 |

Summary Table: Key Takeaways

| Theme | Position/Advice | Notable Commentary | |-----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Crypto Dip | Buyable opportunity due to liquidity, not fundamentals | “Nothing that concerns me from a macro perspective.” | | H1B Visa Fees | Little immediate macro effect, but negative for startups and US entrepreneurship| “It goes against the very DNA of the US economic engine.” | | Euro Defense | Drone/air defense underinvested; increased risk-premia for EU equities | “Heavily under invested still.” | | ISM/Manufacturing| US macro stronger than ISM implies; improvement expected in Q4 | “US is doing better than ISM is currently showing.” | | Gold Miners | Strong YTD; still favorable albeit lagging | “Nothing against gold miners and gold, and I've said so all year.” | | US Dollar | Bearish trend set to continue, but no imminent collapse of reserve status | “We can go much lower… it's very, very early to talk about that.” | | Fed Policy | Expect more cuts; committee not yet swayed by politics | “We will get plenty of right cuts from here.” |

Overall Tone

Conversational and data-driven, with candid remarks and practical, actionable trade ideas. Andreas and Mikkel are transparent about the limits of their predictions, and humorous about the unpredictability of markets—helping demystify the noise around headline events.

This summary captures the full breadth of analysis and the key macro, geopolitical, and market themes discussed in the episode, complete with context, timestamps, and notable soundbites. Ideal for anyone seeking actionable macro insight without sifting through the entire recording.