Macro Mondays – "Is China Winning the Trade War?"

Host: Andreas Steno Larsen with co-host Miglo Rosenwald

Date: November 3, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Andreas and Miglo examine the shifting dynamics of the global trade war with a focus on China’s strategic moves in rare earths, AI, and supply chains. They also touch on crypto markets, the AI investment cycle, recent geopolitical flashpoints, and pressing macroeconomic data. Listener questions explore U.S. solar build-out and market liquidity. True to form, the conversation is frank, transparent, and full of actionable insights — with the famous “sometimes may be good, sometimes may be shit” catchphrase never far away.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crypto Market Malaise & Meme Culture

[02:39]

• Both hosts acknowledge underperformance in crypto, joking about viral memes poking fun at supposed “zero capital gains tax for crypto… if there are no capital gains.”
• Andreas: “I haven’t made a whole lot of money in this space this year, to be brutally honest. I’ve made my money elsewhere and I think that’s a story that sort of resonates with a lot of people.” [03:31]
• The hosts cite a major rotation out of “OG” Bitcoin holders to institutional holders, raising questions about how this is impacting price psychology and volatility.

2. The AI Investment Boom vs. Crypto

[03:55-04:48]

• Andreas sees AI as having “moved faster than crypto” in terms of both investor attention and user adoption. He shifted more of his portfolio to AI with "good results."
• “Tech savvy investors have moved attention elsewhere… at least currently with deals being announced right, left and center within the AI space.” [03:50]

3. US-China Trade – Rare Earths and Strategic Dependency

[06:38]

• The hosts re-examine last week’s Trump-Xi deal and rare earth tariffs. Miglo notes the US’s continued dependence on China for key materials; recent deals and delays are seen as “stopgap measures.”
• Guest quote:
  Scott Bessant: “The Chinese weren’t going to roll out these rare earth restrictions. They’ve been putting this plan together for 25, 30 years and the US has been asleep at the switch.” [06:38]
• Western democracies (U.S., Europe, India, Asian democracies) are now “moving at warp speed” to reduce dependency.
• Andreas:
  • The “deal” leaves key restrictions in place, notably on seven critical metals.
  • Some public investments have started (e.g., U.S. Treasury’s stake in MP Materials & Lithium Americas), but “we simply need to see some more action and less talking.”
  • “I think that’s taking it too far. We simply need to see some more action and less talking. …This is not a free market bet. It’s a terribly small market terrorized by low margins and so on…” [09:34]
  • The use of the term "Operation Warp Speed" raised an eyebrow—Andreas jokes about its COVID-era provenance, but suspects it’s aimed at signaling seriousness to China.

4. The AI & Data Center Capex Cycle

[11:42]

• Discussion of Microsoft’s $10bn cloud contract in Texas with Iron; Iron’s success in their model portfolio.
• Asset-heavy vs asset-light:
  Andreas: “Right now I would consider it a strong advantage to have an asset heavy business because that’s basically what people are after, right. They want to be able to secure utilization… But… the more asset heavy you are, the more cyclical your bet becomes on the AI cycle.” [12:23]

5. Geopolitical Flashpoints – Venezuela & Nigeria

[13:39]

• Venezuela: Trump ramping up rhetoric and military presence; signals are mixed but buildup is “substantial enough that… we are… getting close to the point of no return… or point of no taco.” [16:18]
  • Oil industry seen as the key lever for both direct regime change or negotiated solutions.
• Nigeria: U.S. rhetoric on “responsibility to protect” resurfaces; echoes of 1990s U.S. foreign policy.
  • Both countries are important oil producers; host notes rising global oil supply risks.
• Andreas: Oil is “bottoming here… a very asymmetric one, especially given what’s ongoing in Venezuela and Nigeria.” [17:39]

6. Macro Data: Shutdowns, ISM, Labor Markets

[19:00]

• ISM Manufacturing report “wasn't really a good report… sideways… inventories down a lot…”—likely fallout from Trump-Xi tension.
• Andreas: “As long as you accelerate in the investment cycle, that’s a really good thing to be. But… you move towards fading investment levels and slowing utilization rates…” [13:27]
• Shutdown: Lack of government data, rising Treasury cash balances, potential for tightening liquidity as bills go unpaid:
  • “[The US Treasury is] past $1 trillion now in cash holdings… basically removed those from private markets.” [21:56]

Listener Questions & Answers

1. U.S. Solar Buildout vs. Chinese Supply Chain

Q (James via X): Is the TAN Solar ETF a good play, or focus on U.S. solar build-up?
[22:08]

• Andreas:
  • U.S. solar build-out lagging EU, despite “better spots” domestically.
  • “Most underappreciated bet here is that the domestic buildup of solar in the US will be larger than anticipated by many, including the administration…”
  • Caveat: Solar panels “a very China heavy supply chain again… China is heavily on top of polysilicon, exceeding 80% market share, probably even 90…you essentially cannot build a solar panel without involving China.” [23:48]
  • Suggests diversifying bets through both input/materials and software companies in the supply chain.

2. Repo Facility, SOFR Spike, and Liquidity

Q (Marty K): Views on SOFR spike and $50bn overnight repo injection?
[25:18]

• Andreas:
  • “Result of… buildup of cash from the Treasury… natural consequence of the narrow money market being in scarce liquidity.”
  • First significant standing repo facility use in a while.
  • “A good sign that we’re no longer in an abundant liquidity regime... This is obviously the first clue that we need to see a balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve again.”
  • Expects a possible balance sheet expansion and “true debasement bets” (i.e., in crypto) to gain traction as Fed acts.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Andreas: “Things are sometimes may be good, sometimes may be shit.” [02:39]
• Scott Bessant: “The Chinese weren’t going to roll out these rare earth restrictions… The US has been asleep at the switch.” [06:38]
• Miglo: “Getting close to the point of no return or point of no taco…” [16:18]
• Andreas: “This is not a free market bet. It’s a terribly small market terrorized by low margins…” [09:34]
• Andreas: “I think solar is underappreciated… But… it’s a very China heavy supply chain again.” [23:20]

Important Timestamps

• Crypto & meme culture: 02:39–04:55
• AI investment cycle: 04:55–05:50; 11:42–13:39
• Trump-Xi rare earths deal / supply chain: 06:38–10:57
• Venezuela/Nigeria geopolitics: 13:39–18:37
• Macro data, shutdown effects: 19:00–22:08
• Listener Q&A (solar): 22:08–25:05
• Listener Q&A (repo facility): 25:05–26:47

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is refreshingly blunt and pragmatic, mixing humor and seriousness as the hosts dissect how real-world geopolitics, cyclical investments, and state interventions shape the macro landscape. The underlying theme: vigilance is needed as the world transitions away from previous dependencies (on China, on fiat liquidity, on fossil energy), but “sometimes may be good, sometimes may be shit”—and that’s exactly why you need to stay engaged.

For deeper dives into any of these sectors, see their full macro thematics coverage and AMAs, especially on rare earths, AI, and energy supply chain bets on Real Vision.