Macro Mondays – Markets Confront Iran Risk and Fed Policy

Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Date: March 16, 2026
Episode Theme:
This episode dissects how markets are digesting the ongoing Iran conflict and the Straits of Hormuz disruption, while previewing pivotal central bank decisions amid inflationary pressures, commodity market dislocations, and shifting global power alignments. The hosts provide actionable trade insights and contextualize market risks, leavened with characteristic dry wit.

Episode Overview

Rosenvold and Steno Larsen take listeners through the impact of Middle East tensions on global supply chains, oil flows, and the macroeconomic outlook—with a strong focus on the adaptive behaviors of markets and central banks. They weigh possible regime shifts in geopolitics and monetary policy, offering both hard data and clear-minded skepticism.

Notable Trade Ideas & Market Setups

[02:00-03:00]

• Mikkel Rosenvold: “If you had to make one trade right now…what would it be?”
• Andreas Steno: Picks Circle Group (USDC stablecoin) as his top short-term trade idea, citing its centrality in facilitating cross-border capital flows amid Middle East turmoil.
  • "Circle group is on an absolute tier… it's up 7% since we added to my portfolio or into the overall portfolio… before that it was up like 30." [02:46]
• Rosenvold: Suggests a “highly leveraged oil 10x leverage position” to capture possible short-term oil volatility but also mentions Redcat Holdings as another actionable name (referenced in his “Drill Report”). [03:20]
• Disclaimer catchphrase:
  • “Summertime is maybe good. Summertime it may be shit.” –Steno [04:02]

Geopolitical Satire & Memorable Moments

[04:07-05:28]

• Rosenvold shares an absurd viral tweet: Newt Gingrich proposed using thermonuclear weapons to dig a canal around the Strait of Hormuz.
  • “That's solution-oriented leadership…" It's an idea anyway. Remember, this guy was a very, very serious presidential contender a few decades ago, but yeah, we're perhaps lucky that he isn’t anymore.” –Rosenvold [04:27]
• Hosts riff on prediction markets and war fatigue:
  • "Last Monday, I told the audience I would not shave until the war was over…Then on Friday, I was told, we've won, we've won… I've won. We won. We've won." –Steno [05:41]
  • “I'm not buying that.” –Rosenvold [05:54]

Iran War: Evolving Market Assessment

Strategic Recap [05:55–13:46]

• The conflict is “grinding down to an attritional war,” potentially anticlimactic for markets, despite enormous stakes.
• U.S. Marines deployed; speculation about a U.S. move on Kharg Island to cripple Iran’s exports.
• The U.S. struggles to assemble a naval coalition for Hormuz, though its Navy could operate alone—albeit exposed.
• Iran attacks reported: Potential hit on Fujairah port (bypasses Hormuz for oil exports).
• Key supply routes still open: No attacks on Saudi’s east-west pipeline or Houthis in the Red Sea.
• Russian sanctions lifted: India now buys Russian oil at $99/barrel—triple previous costs, indicating rerouting of supply in action.
• Market adaptation:
  • “People are beginning to lose focus on this Iran war. It's becoming boring…I hate to say low intensity because the stakes are so high, but…” –Rosenvold [05:57]
• Delicate U.S.-Iran-China balance:
  • Both U.S. and Iran avoid striking Saudi oil infrastructure to sidestep escalation.
  • U.S. tolerates some Iranian oil flows (“not attacking the ships”).
• Supply Chain Adaptations:
  • ~5–7 million barrels/day rerouted through pipelines/tankers.
  • “I don’t really think Iran has many friends in terms of keeping this flow in turmoil. Maybe the only friend…is Russia.” –Steno [09:26]
  • India and China actively negotiating to restore flows.

Macro Perspective: Short-Term vs Long-Term Impacts

[13:46-17:34]

• Input cost shock immediate; growth impact lagged or not inevitable, especially for U.S., less so for China/India.
  • “If this sort of fizzles out…this will turn out to be a nothing burger for the business cycle. Not for the input price level, but for the business cycle, especially in the U.S. which is mostly shielded from this…” –Steno [10:47]
• Duality of continued Iranian oil exports:
  • Keeps Iran solvent and oil prices in check for China; denies U.S. full economic leverage entering trade talks.

Upcoming Trump–Xi Summit & Geopolitical Leverage

[12:00-15:29]

• Trump signals possible delay to summit, to pressure Beijing and avoid appearing weak.
• Discussion: U.S. involvement in Strait as leverage for Chinese negotiations. Control of Hormuz seen as potential bargaining chip.
  • “If the US controlled the Strait of Hormuz…they actually have something to negotiate with when it comes to these trade talks with China.” –Steno [14:08]
• Chinese "regime agnosticism": China simply wants reliable oil flows, regardless of Iranian regime.
• Rumors of Chinese military activity around Taiwan labeled “overhyped,” but noted as background risk if U.S. Navy overstretched.
• Consensus: Market now expects prolonged, low-intensity conflict; focus shifts from seeking a ceasefire to managing disrupted flows.

Macro & Central Bank Outlook

[17:34–25:37]

Middle East Conflict’s Ripple Effects on Markets

• Energy is the obvious vector:
  • “One thing is the inflation report for March, which will obviously show some early signs of inflation in energy. But the next couple of quarters will be very interesting in terms of the byproducts and the ramifications for the broader supply chain.” –Steno [18:14]
• Potential for broader repercussions: Fertilizer and food inflation (as in 2021–22 post-Covid period).
• U.S. Fed: Unlikely to change course amid uncertainty. No rate move expected.
  • “Why would he risk anything really on Wednesday? ...I mean, that's probably what he'll say.” –Steno [19:26]
• ECB: More hawkish, possibly forced into a rate hike by summer to contain inflation spillover from energy.
• BOJ: Unstated tension between new Japanese Prime Minister (wants dovishness) and hawkish central bank; April hike likely, not March.

Market Positioning & Cycle Risk

• Biggest index net outflows in U.S. stocks for a decade—more negative than even the worst weeks of Covid.
• Market largely hedging via index futures, not liquidating core holdings.
• "It's quite telling that we see this kind of hedging flow already now. While...this is only an input price shock while the business cycle impact arrives much later and depends on a prolonged conflict.” –Steno [24:29]

Commodity Market Insights & Nowcasting

[25:37–29:23]

• Hosts share insights from their pattern recognition model for commodities:
  • Model not bullish on oil; more positive on gold, natural gas, byproducts.
  • “It kind of underscores what I just said, that the big story for the first two weeks was probably oil. Now we need to talk about all of the byproducts, which include NAT gas for me and fertilizers and food...” –Steno [27:10]
• Emphasis on how supply chains adapt (e.g., Europe finding LNG terminals post-Ukraine war).
• Winners: Non-Gulf input providers like Russia; Gulf exporters may lose investor confidence in their supply stability.
  • “I think this is a major, major positive for some of the other input providers in these supply chains going forward, including Russia. As you can already see, Trump and his team simply just had to accept the reality that now that they were in war with Iran, they had to include Russia in the supply chain again.” –Steno [28:50]

Actionable Takeaways & Closing Thoughts

• Market reaction to Iran is increasingly adaptive and less panicked.
• Focus for investors: Monitor supply chain byproducts (fertilizer, food, industrial gases).
• Central bank moves, especially ECB and BOJ, may dictate trajectory and timing of any global growth downturn.
• Trade ideas: USDC, oil leverage for volatility—but not as core long, Redcat Holdings, nat gas, and related supply chain plays.

Notable Quotes

• On trades amid war uncertainty:
  • “Summertime is maybe good. Summertime it may be shit.” –Steno [04:02]
• On geopolitics and new normals:
  • “It's becoming, I hate to say 'low intensity' because the stakes are so high, but it is where we're at.” –Rosenvold [05:57]
• On U.S. Fed policy:
  • “…Powell is very close to getting to the finish line in one piece here; why would he risk anything really on Wednesday?” –Steno [19:26]
• On the adaptive nature of supply chains:
  • “…even in 2021, 2022…supply chains still found new ways to deal with this fairly swift…Europe had LNG terminals up and running and what have you. The supply chains will adapt this time as well.” –Steno [28:04]
• On market hedging:
  • "Biggest index net outflow of US stocks over the past 10 years…even worse…than some of the worst Covid weeks, which is quite interesting." –Steno [23:33]

Timestamps by Segment

• [02:00] – Arena trade ideas
• [04:07] – Laugh of the week & Gingrich tweet
• [05:55] – Iran war situation update & market adjustment
• [13:46] – Trump–Xi summit, geopolitics of Hormuz
• [17:34] – Macro regime effects, inflation, central banks
• [25:37] – Commodity nowcasting & practical market bets
• [29:23] – Closing remarks

Summary prepared for listeners seeking a pragmatic, no-hype guide to the tangled web of geopolitics and macro markets—cutting through noise, calling out absurdities, and always searching for actionable trades.