Macro Mondays – Episode Summary

Episode Title: "New Year, New Geopolitical Shockwaves"

Date: January 5, 2026
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold

Overview

This episode launches the 2026 season of Macro Mondays with a fast-moving analysis of the surprising geopolitical developments at the turn of the year. The arrest of Nicolás Maduro and the sudden U.S. intervention in Venezuela dominate the conversation, providing a case study for shifting U.S. foreign policy, oil markets, global decoupling themes, and new macro trade ideas. The hosts also address potential domino effects in global geopolitics, discuss the ramifications for gold, silver, and bitcoin, and respond to listeners’ sharp questions about possible future hotspots and investment angles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela: Event, Market Reactions & Trade Ideas

• Initial Market Response:

  • Oil markets treated the U.S. move in Venezuela as "pretty much a nothing burger for now" because the country’s infrastructure is outdated and oil production is already subdued.
    • "Spot speaking, we're probably talking about a decline in the oil supply from Venezuela. But over time, there's a scope here… we're talking about an exercise that will take many years and will take billions after billions in investments to really move the needle." (Andreas, 03:20–05:39)
  • The market’s short-term reaction was muted, with some movement in specific oil company stocks amid speculation about future participation in Venezuelan oil refineries.
  • Andreas suspects some information may have leaked given pre-weekend stock rallies:
    • "Some of these companies already saw rally on Friday. That makes me speculate at least whether someone from within the very inner circle of the administration leaked something…" (Andreas, 06:19)

• Nature of the Operation:

  • This was not a full-scale regime change like Iraq or Afghanistan but a swift replacement of leadership, maintaining much of the existing Venezuelan power structure.
  • "Maduro is out, his wife is out. Everything else stays the same… So this is not a regime change." (Mikkel, 07:21)
  • The “puppet” strategy is a deliberate shift after lessons from the Middle East:
    • "It may be a son of a bitch leading the country, but at least it’s our son of a bitch. And that’s kind of the notion that they’re following now." (Andreas, 08:25)

• Geostrategic Context & Decoupling:

  • The takeover is less about oil needs than about excluding Russia/China and tightening U.S.-controlled supply chains.
  • "Does the USA need the Venezuelan oil? No, but it’s better to have it US controlled than Russia or China controlled." (Mikkel, 09:49)
  • The event is framed as part of the broader U.S.-China decoupling, and hosts see lasting opportunities in related trade themes.

2. What (& Who) Is Next?

• "To me it really seems like the administration is high on success here. So why not try and do more now that there is a window of opportunity?" (Andreas, 09:17)
• Possible targets are floated tongue-in-cheek with references to the “bloodlust in Washington” and speculation about Colombia, Mexico, Iran, and even Greenland.
• On prospects for further U.S. interventions:
  • Colombia and Mexico seen as much more complicated, unlikely to see a repeat of the Venezuela playbook in the near term.
  • Greenland “could happen,” with the potential for U.S. proposals instead of military action and mining companies already seeing price movement.
    • "I'm quite fearful of that because if Trump really wants Greenland to be American, what kind of deal can you really make?" (Mikkel, 12:50)

3. Commodities Response: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin

• Gold:

  • Decoupling theme strengthens the gold bull case, with gold hitting new highs as a result of geopolitical “trend breaks.”
    • "Gold is absolutely through the roof and I think that makes sense because if the coupling was semi confirmed on Friday it is definitely fully confirmed by Monday." (Andreas, 15:48)

• Silver:

  • More caution urged on silver due to heavy speculative longs, rising CME margins, and an increasingly industrial profile.
    • "It is not as clear to me that silver is a precious metal anymore..." (Andreas, 16:35)

• Rare Earths & Mining:

  • Greenland’s niche mining (especially rare earths) flagged as a more obvious play than Venezuela for now.

• Bitcoin & Digital Reserves:

  • U.S. seizure or freezing of Venezuela's “bitcoin reserve” (600,000 BTC) is discussed as a new kind of strategic asset:
    • "Five years ago that would have been a hot potato… Now it’s a big asset." (Mikkel, 17:10)
    • "If you somehow get hold of some, you’ll keep them in that reserve and that would be my base case here." (Andreas, 18:12)

4. Macro Backdrop: Disinflation, Liquidity, and U.S. Policy

• Disinflation in the U.S.:

  • Substantial disinflation impulse now underway; approach to the Fed’s 2% target in Q1 possible.
    • "We're talking about a substantial disinflation impulse now in the US And I think it is even in play that we get relatively close to the 2% target..." (Andreas, 20:55)

• Rate Cuts & Debasement Trades:

  • Rate cuts likely, further fueling the “dollar debasement” trade and risk asset rallies.
  • Liquidity seen improving thanks to new bank rules (ESLR) and positive changes in repo capacity.
    • "Lower inflation liquidity going up, this geopolitical backdrop, I think we have a very strong return profile ahead of us in January." (Andreas, 22:50)

• Capex & Industrial Cycle:

  • New U.S. legislation boosts CapEx prospects; manufacturing sector expected to ramp up investments, benefiting from improved tax treatment.
    • "The big beautiful bill establishes window of opportunity for CapEx this year. That window was not there last year..." (Andreas, 23:53)

5. Listener Questions & Audience Engagement

• Colombia Risks:

  • Venezuelan operation was unique; no quick repeat in Colombia due to greater government legitimacy. (Peter Wenzel, listener; echoed by both hosts, 25:41)

• Taiwan Scenario:

  • Despite “blueprint” arguments, China’s prospects for a Taiwan takeover are actually reduced by the Venezuela operation because of now-weakened access to oil supplies.
    • "For what it's worth my reading is that an invasion of Taiwan got less likely after the Venezuela special operation..." (Andreas, 28:31)
  • Russian supply alone insufficient to fuel China’s war needs; Venezuela’s loss is a blow to any Chinese contingency planning.

• Macro Risks from New Venezuelan Government:

  • The hosts warn the new “puppet” regime’s finances will quickly run dry, making Venezuela dependent on U.S. support, and potentially leading to future instability.
    • "This is a society that's going to run out of money in a couple of months. Then they're going to have to go to Washington and ask the Americans to fill up their state covers." (Mikkel, 19:24)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On U.S. Intervention:

  • "This is not a regime change. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. And this was done so quickly, Andreas, that it never materialized into a true macro story." (Mikkel, 07:21)

• On the U.S. approach to foreign “strongmen”:

  • "It may be a son of a bitch leading the country, but at least it’s our son of a bitch." (Andreas, 08:25)

• On the Decoupling Trade:

  • "The decoupling base case is now solidified... those obvious decoupling bets will continue to rally." (Andreas, 16:45)

• On Bitcoin as a Geopolitical Asset:

  • "Now it’s a big asset. Do you think, think could this restart the talks of a US federal bitcoin reserve?" (Mikkel, 17:10)

• On U.S. Dollar and Market Outlook:

  • "Lower inflation liquidity going up, this geopolitical backdrop, I think we have a very strong return profile ahead of us in January." (Andreas, 22:50)

• On Manufacturing & CapEx:

  • "That window was not there last year. So you can basically write off or use your capex from a tax perspective this year as a consequence of the big beautiful bill..." (Andreas, 23:53)

Key Timestamps

• Opening Banter & 2026 Outlook: 00:06–03:03
• Venezuela Intervention, Market Reaction: 03:03–08:25
• Geopolitics & “Who’s Next” Debates: 09:17–13:37
• Commodities & Bitcoin Discussion: 13:37–18:12
• Macro Backdrop, Disinflation, Rate Cuts: 20:55–23:53
• Listener Questions: Colombia, Taiwan, Macro Risks: 25:41–29:33

Closing Tone

The episode balances playful skepticism with deep geopolitical insight, always returning to practical macro trading themes while acknowledging the uncertain and sometimes surreal new world order. The hosts repeatedly emphasize their agnostic, actionable approach—"SOMETIMES MAYBE GOOD, SOMETIMES MAYBE SHIT"—and close with a preview of ongoing analysis and listener engagement.

Useful for anyone wanting a thorough, actionable understanding of the new year's biggest geopolitical shockwave and its macro and market implications.