Macro Mondays: Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk

Podcast: Macro Mondays
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold
Date: February 2, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into a turbulent week for global macroeconomics, focusing on explosive moves in metals (especially silver), new U.S. strategic initiatives in minerals, the evolving geopolitical landscape with Iran and China, and the impact of U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration. Andreas and Mikkel break down actionable implications for portfolios, macro models, and the broader investment landscape in 2026.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. ISM Manufacturing Index: Signs of a Strong U.S. Rebound

• ISM Surprise: The ISM manufacturing index jumped to 52.6 with new orders at 57.1, far surpassing consensus and marking a sharp turn after months of stagnation (02:14).
  • Andreas: "The ISM came in at 52.6, new orders came in at 57.1, which is almost up 10 index points since a month ago... We've been waiting for this. I think this is something that is highly underappreciated by the market." (02:14)
• Policy Catalyst: The move attributed to the bonus depreciation window opened on Jan 19, incentivizing capital expenditures before midterms.
• Asset Implications: Historically, assets sensitive to U.S. manufacturing cycles – midcaps (Russell), tech, bitcoin, base metals, and possibly silver – outperform when ISM surges (03:53).

2. Metals Meltdown: The Silver Crash

• Historic Silver Selloff: A single-day, ~27% drop in silver, described as "unheard of" — the largest in modern financial history, surpassing even 1980's infamous drawdowns (06:19).
  • Andreas: “In terms of its nominal size across any assets ever in history, this is absolutely bizarre…a drawdown of 30% intraday is unheard of.” (06:19)
• Market Mechanics: Massive volumes, notably in the SLV ETF (traded ~$40 billion on Friday, 25-30x normal), triggered forced deleveraging as exchanges raised margins and risk models forced exposure cuts.
• Contagion: The volatility impacted other assets; “quite a few trades that were popular, they got absolutely killed.” (11:10)
• Positioning: Andreas had exited silver ahead of the crash (“I DCA out of this position during the first week of January…there’s no need for me to take a victory lap…”), now prefers assets with higher risk-adjusted returns due to ongoing volatility (11:10).
• Listener Perspective: “I was a bit sore at Andreas for getting me out of the silver trade a bit early, but now I really want to buy him a pint.” — Listener David Kiss, read by Mikkel (10:35).

3. U.S. Mineral Strategy: Countering China and "Decoupling"

• Surprise Announcement: Trump administration launching a $12B mineral stockpile to boost U.S. manufacturing and counter China’s influence (14:01).
  • Likely Metals: Expect focus on copper, rare earths, and strategic inputs for the energy and tech sectors.
• Reuters and Policy Manoeuvring: Confusion over policy details, especially price floors for MP Materials and broader sector support, but overall a clear acceleration towards domestic supply chain security.
  • Andreas: “It's a pretty damn firm deadline that we have to do something on these supply chains because we got a year from China in return for a few gifts the other way…China is obviously weaponizing this supply chain.” (14:01)
• Broader Theme: U.S. moves are seen as part of a broader decoupling strategy playing out in portfolio positioning and geopolitics.

4. Geopolitics: The Iran Risk and Oil

• Military & Diplomatic Moves: U.S. has built up capacity for a large-scale strike on Iran, but is currently pursuing negotiations, partly related to anti-regime protests and nuclear program talks (16:29).
  • Mikkel: “This is about opening up doors for the President…once it's there, it obviously makes it easier for the President to take this decision.”
• Strategic Oil Implications: Iran supplies ~20% of China’s oil. U.S. influence over Iran could disrupt China’s energy security (trade scenario: removing barrels from China, possibly opening Iran to Western companies).
• Potential Scenarios:
  • Conflict: Would increase risk premium for oil, benefit drone and decoupling trades, and impact shipping routes (Breakwave tanker ETF cited as highly sensitive).
  • Deal: Would support US oil companies, gradual Iranian integration back into world markets (“not a huge boost...but could be part of it”).
• Mixed Short-Term Outlook: “I don’t know if it’s 50-50 or if it’s 60-40…very, very hard to tell.” (Mikkel, 21:50)

5. Market Trades: Shipping & Conflict Bets

• Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: Was the standout “Iran conflict” trade, but down 10% since market opened after initial rally; highly correlated to rising Middle East tensions (22:11).
• Andreas: Stays out after missing the initial move, cautious on risk-reward, wary of both best- and worst-case scenarios for Iran and shipping (“I'm staying hands off that trade now, especially since I missed it, just to be honest.” 22:11).

6. Policy Watch: New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh

• Lukewarm Market Response: Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair read as more political than hawkish — closer to Trump family (not a “bureaucrat”), supportive of looser policy.
  • Andreas: “He may turn out to be the biggest loyalist of them all…he's not searching for another bureaucrat…he wants someone he can control.” (23:58)
• Outlook: Likely to favor rate cuts and liquidity, supporting asset markets (“this guy will bring interest rates lower even though we'll have a boom this year”).
• Structural Perspective: Discussion of monetary mechanisms (direct Fed QE vs. commercial bank credit growth), and implications for asset risk-on environments.

7. Political Signals: U.S. Election Dynamics

• Democratic Bellwether: Democrats’ win in a Texas state senate district (a “very, very important bellwether”) intensifies Republican need to show economic results before midterms, possibly reinforcing pro-growth/fiscal responses (26:54).

8. Looking Ahead: Summary and Closing Thoughts

• Andreas’ Outlook: Comfortable with U.S. cyclical upturn thesis – domestic CapEx, supportive Fed, underappreciated policy stimulus underway (“very satisfying to see the ISM finally playing ball…still think it's a very underappreciated story that we do see on-ground domestic CapEx in the US this year, strong cycle and the Federal Reserve that will sort of back up that cyclical development.” 28:03).
• Mikkel: Hopes for a week with fewer extreme moves but remains vigilant for further headline-driven volatility.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On ISM surprise:
  Andreas: “The ISM came in at 52.6, new orders … up 10 index points since a month ago…this is big, very big news.” (02:14)

• On the silver crash:
  Andreas: “A drawdown of 30% intraday is unheard of, Absolutely unheard of…all exchanges will have to increase margins.” (06:19)

• On listener feedback:
  Mikkel, quoting David Kiss: “I was a bit sore at Andreas for getting me out of the silver trade a bit early, but now I really want to buy him a pint.” (10:35)

• On new U.S. mineral policy:
  Andreas: “It’s a pretty damn firm deadline that we have to do something on these supply chains…China is obviously weaponizing this supply chain.” (14:01)

• On Iran’s strategic role:
  Mikkel: “Iran delivers about 20% of China’s oil imports. If the US can tap into that and remove those barrels from China’s control, that means that a, China cannot get these with, with discounts…a huge strategic boon for the US...” (16:29)

• On new Fed Chair Warsh:
  Andreas: “He may turn out to be the biggest loyalist of them all…he wants someone he can control…this guy will bring interest rates lower even though we’ll have a boom this year.” (23:58)

Key Segments & Timestamps

• Opening / ISM Discussion: 00:06–05:20
• Silver Crash Deep Dive: 05:20–12:57
• Listener Comments on Silver: 10:35 (David Kiss); 12:57 (hosh40)
• US Strategic Mineral Policy & Decoupling: 14:01–16:29
• Iran Situation & Oil/China Geopolitics: 16:29–22:11
• Tanker Shipping Conflict Trade: 22:11–23:34
• Fed Chair Discussion (Warsh): 23:34–26:54
• US Political/Election Signals: 26:54–28:03
• Summary & Closing Thoughts: 28:03–29:02

Tone and Style

The discussion is energetic, fast-paced, and frank, blending deep analytical insights with a conversational style and frequent asides referencing their own trading results (“sometimes may be good, sometimes may be shit”). They maintain a blend of seriousness and entertainment, inviting audience engagement and feedback.

This episode is an essential listen for those tracking global macro, commodities, and the intersection of policy and markets in 2026, blending actionable perspectives with sharp, transparent commentary.