Macro Mondays – Open War: Trump Targets the Fed

Podcast Summary – January 12, 2026

Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold

Main Theme

The episode dissects the unprecedented escalation between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve after grand jury subpoenas were served to the Fed, sparking what the hosts dub “open warfare” between politics and monetary policy. Andreas and Mikkel trace the shockwaves in markets, discuss the implications for Fed independence, and explore strategies and insights for investors navigating this extraordinary moment.

Key Discussion Points

1. Subpoena Bombshell: Political War on the Fed

• Kicking Off with Powell’s Response
  After grand jury subpoenas, Fed Chair Jay Powell released an unusually direct video statement (02:35–03:32) defending the Fed’s independence:

  “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment... rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be Directed by political pressure or intimidation.... Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.”
  —— Jay Powell, [02:35–03:32]

• A Genuine Newcomer in Central Bank History
  Andreas frames this as “an open state of war, you could almost say, between the Trump administration and Jay Powell” [03:32], highlighting that involvement of the Department of Justice is “a genuine newcomer” in central bank history [03:53].

  “What makes it even crazier is that it is also a genuine newcomer that the Federal Reserve openly and publicly responds to this subpoena...saying that it's basically a cover up, which makes it even crazier.”
  —— Andreas, [04:48]

2. Market Reactions & Macro Implications

• Surprisingly Muted Market Moves
  Despite the drama, market reactions were modest. Yield curves steepened slightly, gold and silver rallied, but equities remained relatively contained.

  • “The most clear reaction, we obviously have that in Gold and, and obviously also Silver.... Silver is doing great today.” — Andreas [05:51]

• International Trust in Fed & Dollar Under Scrutiny
  Andreas notes a return to April’s concerns on global trust in the Fed and dollar as monetary authorities in the US come under visible political pressure [06:29].

• Political Fallout and Power Vacuum Risks

  • Mikkel observes intra-party splits, e.g., Republican Senator Thom Tillis’s refusal to cooperate on new Fed appointees, setting the stage for potential gridlock at the Fed ([07:57]).

    “Which leaves an interesting political backdrop because it seems like the Republican party is not 100% behind Donald Trump on this and you could have a prolonged sort of power vacuum around the Fed and that's exactly what Donald Trump does not want.”
    —— Mikkel [08:06]

3. Strategic Timing vs. Lame Duck Fed

• Trump’s rush is traced to the upcoming midterms as he seeks to pressure the Fed for market and economy-friendly moves before the potential for losing control ([13:46]).

  • “Trump can't just wait until May because if you get a new central bank or a new chair in May, that person won't really have time to do all that much before the, before the midterms… So he's really, really, really in a hurry.” — Mikkel [13:46]

• Investment Impacts & Trade Picks

  • Gold is “a no brainer,” says Andreas, as global reservers diversify; silver less so, as it “is not a monetary metal at the moment” ([11:50]).
  • Bitcoin/crypto could catch a bid as “the space has kind of been searching for a trigger to get renewed momentum. Maybe this could be it.” — Andreas [13:05]

4. Trump’s Economic Policy: Surprising Left Turns

• Trump’s proposal to cap credit card rates at 10% stuns both hosts, likened to “an AOC or Bernie Sanders sort of proposal” ([14:47]).
  • “Comes on top of terrorism, number of other things. So what's your take on the economic policy of the Trump and the policy mix of the Trump administration right now?” — Mikkel [14:35]
• Price controls likely “limit supply,” says Andreas, but the real issue may be regulatory rather than free market ([16:43–18:06]).

5. Portfolio Positioning & Thematic Plays

• The RV (Real Vision) model portfolio is up close to 10% YTD ([21:27]), with thematics aligned to:

  • Weakening dollar; long crypto utility, gold, and commodities
  • Geopolitical "decoupling" trades amid US-China divergences
  • Military/drone tech: benefiting from huge budget announcements and procurement ramp ([21:45–23:53])
  • Grid and AI infrastructure: “I cannot recall such an eventful first week of the year ever… infinite AI demand… the real economy will struggle to keep pace” — Andreas [23:53]

• Investment Tactics:
  “As long as inflation doesn't spike, no one cares about Fed independence. Let me put it like that.”— Andreas [25:41]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the unprecedented Fed-White House clash:

  “This sort of open warfare... if this had been a third world country, the central bank director...would have either been exiled or shot.”
  —— Mikkel [06:45]

• On State Capitalism:

  “I think it was a great Danish economist, Costin Jakobsen, formerly of Saxo bank, who coined the term, or use the term state capitalism for what we're seeing right now. And I think that's very fitting.” — Mikkel [25:53]

• On Innovation and Global Markets:

  “No real innovation is going on there... Is it even feasible to consider, you know, all funds running in that direction?”
  —— Andreas, on Europe versus US/China, [27:06]

Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–02:35 – Introductions, setup from Gran Canaria, framing of the episode’s urgency
• 02:35–03:32 – Jay Powell’s bombshell response (audio played and discussed)
• 03:32–09:50 – Immediate reactions; history, market moves, and political ramifications
• 10:48–13:46 – Discussion of investment strategies; gold, silver, bitcoin, dollar plays
• 13:46–18:06 – Trump’s rush before midterms; surprising economic left turns, price controls, policy mix
• 18:57–23:53 – Portfolio performance, model positioning, thematics, military and AI grid investments
• 23:53–27:34 – State capitalism, global flows, Europe's lag, philosophical reflections
• 27:36–29:33 – Brief coverage of Iran’s crisis; geopolitical risk and investment angle
• 29:33–30:13 – Light Q&A and banter; show close

Tone & Style

• The episode is conversational yet incisive, blending dry wit (“silver hacks out there,” “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit”) with serious market commentary.
• Both hosts exude confidence and transparency, breaking down complex macro issues for both seasoned investors and advanced enthusiasts.
• Strategic, pragmatic, and at times, unsparingly honest about both political absurdity and trade-offs in capital markets.

For Listeners

This episode is essential for anyone tracking US political risk, central bank independence, global capital flows, or who wants actionable macro context as the 2026 US midterms approach. The hosts chart a path through turmoil, emphasizing resilience, diversification, and the necessity of grappling with state-driven capitalism as the defining macro trend of our era.