Podcast Summary: Macro Mondays
Episode: Rates, Risks, and Reality
Host: Mikkel Rosenvold (solo; Andreas Steno Larsen absent)
Date: January 26, 2026
Episode Overview
In this special edition of Macro Mondays, host Mikkel Rosenvold broadcasts solo from the Real Vision Crypto Gathering in Miami Beach, offering an in-depth wrap-up of a tumultuous week in global geopolitics and macroeconomics. The discussion covers the Davos World Economic Forum 2026, the resolution (for now) of the Greenland crisis, Canada’s forward-looking geopolitical stance, the ongoing US-China rivalry, Europe’s push for independence, speculation in silver and copper markets, as well as a preview of upcoming central bank moves.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Setting the Scene at Miami’s Crypto Gathering
- Location & Vibe: Mikkel introduces the episode from Miami Beach at the Real Vision Crypto Gathering, noting the lively macro discussion and networking atmosphere.
- Andreas’ Absence: The podcast was planned as a two-host show but Andreas is still on the golf course, so Mikkel hosts solo.
- Mikkel's Comment: “If we had to postpone this any further today, it would cut into our beach party tonight and that's not gonna happen…” [00:49]
2. Geopolitical Lightning Round
a. Davos 2026: A Landmark Year
- Greenland Crisis Winds Down
- Donald Trump announced he would not pursue military action over Greenland and concluded a vague framework deal with NATO’s Mark Rutte.
- Mikkel's take: Relief that “the Greenland situation is over for now” but acknowledges it could resurface.
- Quote: “So to be honest with you, I'm very relieved that the Greenland situation is over for now. It might blow up in a few months time, but I think it's very, very positive…” [03:40]
- Actionable Insight: Mikkel no longer sees Greenland as a market focus unless the topic reignites.
b. Canada’s New Geopolitical Posture
- Mark Carney’s Davos Speech:
- Lays out a vision for ‘middle powers’ in a fragmented world, suggesting Canada and similar nations are forging their own paths rather than following the US lead.
- Canada and China talks highlighted as emblematic of this trend.
- Quote: “Carney essentially laid out his vision for middle powers in a rupturing world order... but also because it laid out the vision not only for Canada, but for other countries that have been used to bandwagoning and following the US but are now trading their own ways.” [05:07]
c. From Unipolar to Bipolar (US-China Axis)
- The world continues shifting from US domination towards a bipolar or multipolar order, with China rising as a peer power.
- The US response, especially under Trump, is reminiscent of 19th-century sphere of influence politics, including attempts to create or reshape institutions.
- Quote: “A lot of what we're seeing from Donald Trump right now reminds me of 19th-century great power behavior, establishing your own sphere of influence, ruling by more hard power.” [06:47]
3. Ukraine: Hopes for Peace, But Not Yet
- Peace Talks:
- Ukraine-Russia negotiations possibly resuming in the UAE, but Mikkel is not optimistic for imminent peace.
- Trump’s waning interest in brokering peace cited as a negative signal.
- Investment Impact:
- Thematic of Ukrainian reconstruction remains on hold in Steno Research’s model portfolio; pivoting focus toward European independence as a more actionable theme.
- Quote: “Once we get a peace in Ukraine, it's going to be a great investment thematic for 2026 if we get a peace deal. But I have to say it's not going to happen right now, I think.” [10:15]
4. European Independence Accelerates
- What It Means:
- Europe to increase military spending (aiming for 5% of GDP, with 1.5% going to critical infrastructure) as it seeks autonomy in defense, tech, energy, and diplomacy.
- Expected investment: up to $1 trillion per year in coming years.
- Defense and tech sectors highlighted as key thematic areas; cloud computing, software, infrastructure are of particular interest.
- Quote: “Europe has also confirmed the willingness to ramp up military spending to reach the NATO goal of 5%...” [12:00]
5. A “McKinsey” Vision for Gaza
- Jared Kushner’s Proposal:
- Kushner outlined a post-ceasefire plan for Gaza akin to a management consulting presentation, with ambitious visions to transform Gaza into a “new Dubai.”
- Mikkel is skeptical of the plan’s realism, but acknowledges it's a rare moment of optimism for the region.
- Memorable Moment:
- “So I really urge you to see this presentation… perhaps the new face of world politics, the McKinsey version of nation building.” [14:20]
6. Hot Markets: Silver, Copper, and Rotation
- Silver surges past $100: Strong rally observed, described as a ‘frenzy.’ Mikkel admits exiting too early.
- Copper as Next Winner: Anticipates both speculators and industries will rotate from increasingly expensive silver to copper, especially in sectors like solar energy.
- Quote: “We are in a frenzy right now in silver… Our best bet is that we're going to slowly see a rotation over into copper.” [16:30]
7. Macro Outlook: Fed Watch & Inflation
- Near-Term Preview:
- Awaiting Fed meeting this week; no rate cut expected immediately, but guidance for cuts likely in summer if inflation and jobs trends persist.
- Model Portfolio Positioning:
- Inflation seen as ‘absolutely under control.’
- “Very lukewarm jobs numbers that should pave the way for more rate cuts this summer…” [18:58]
Notable Quotes
- “It's not always possible to make money off geopolitics, but it certainly dominates markets whenever shit hits the fan.” — Mikkel Rosenvold [01:59]
- “Donald Trump had lost patience with the Greenland issue. So he declared that he was never going to use military force. That's a relief.” — Mikkel Rosenvold [03:23]
- “Everything is going to be crystallizing around the US-China dynamic.” — Mikkel Rosenvold [07:30]
- “The McKinsey version of nation building.” (On Jared Kushner’s Gaza plan) — Mikkel Rosenvold [14:30]
- “We are in a frenzy right now in silver… but we're going to slowly see a rotation over into copper.” — Mikkel Rosenvold [16:30]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:00-02:15 – Introduction, Miami event context, disclaimer (“sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit”)
- 02:15-06:30 – Davos, Greenland crisis resolution, shift in geopolitical focus
- 06:30-10:30 – Mark Carney’s speech, evolution towards a multipolar world
- 10:30-12:40 – Ukraine, peace prospects, model portfolio implications
- 12:40-14:30 – European investment surge, focus sectors
- 14:30-16:30 – Kushner’s Gaza plan, the “McKinsey” approach to geopolitics
- 16:30-18:15 – Silver market frenzy, copper as next play
- 18:15-20:00 – Macro preview: Fed meeting, inflation, rate cut watch
Tone & Style
Mikkel’s delivery is candid, slightly tongue-in-cheek, and openly reflective of the uncertainties and frustrations in navigating complex macro and geopolitical themes. He keeps the focus actionable for investors, often tying global events directly back to investment themes. The catchphrase “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit” sets an honest, no-hype tone.
Conclusion
This episode delivers a brisk but detailed rundown of pivotal events shaping global markets in January 2026. From major shakeups in geopolitics (Greenland, Ukraine, Europe’s rise) to commodity market pivots (silver to copper), Mikkel helps listeners connect macro headlines to actionable portfolio ideas, while maintaining a sharp, irreverent tone that keeps complex topics accessible and engaging.