Macro Mondays – "Risk Isn’t Gone" | March 30, 2026

Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Main Theme:
A tense, highly actionable episode focused on the ongoing Iran war and its escalating geo-economic impacts—especially on global supply chains, markets, and asset class strategies. The hosts break down current developments, outline market reactions, and answer tough listener questions about portfolio positioning in this uncertain macro landscape.

Episode Overview

The show centers on two core topics:

• The Continuing Iran War: Nearing its one-month mark, catalyzing global risk repricing, with the U.S. military build-up and opaque negotiation efforts dominating headlines.
• Macro Market Impact: Focus on oil, global supply chains (energy and semiconductors), inflation’s impact on portfolio structuring, and what to look for in upcoming economic data releases.

The hosts maintain a candid, sometimes irreverent tone—balancing serious analysis with memorable asides and running jokes (notably about “Hopium” and Trump as the “orange Jim Cramer”).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The ‘Hopium’ Cycle and Trump’s Negotiation Bluff

• Market Mood: A sense of déjà vu as markets react to Trump’s ambiguous claims about negotiations with Iran, which keep stalling.
  • Quote (Andreas): “It was last Monday he started airing the prospects of direct negotiations with the Iranian regime. Here we are a week later, we're still apparently in serious discussions with them. They keep refusing it themselves.” [04:41]
• Strategic Pacing: The hosts speculate that U.S. negotiation narratives might be a façade, buying time to move greater military assets into position in the Gulf.
  • Quote (Mikkel): “It's also entirely possible...that this is simply buying time for the US to get forces in place for the next phase of the war.” [06:36]
• Trump’s Political Maneuvering: Trump’s reputation for sudden pivots means markets can’t easily pre-price outcomes, making risk management exceptionally difficult.
  • Quote (Andreas): “Trump is not the typical president. Right? He can pivot, he can spin victories, he can create his own narrative if he wants to.” [09:55]

2. Macro & Market Implications

Oil Supply, Risk, and Global Chains

• Strait of Hormuz: With the closure, ~20 million barrels/day are disrupted. Mitigations include increased pipeline flows via Fujairah (UAE) and Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, plus small negotiated sailings.
  • Quote (Andreas): “We lost say around 20 million barrels a day when the Strait of Hormuz closed.” [07:46]
• Market Freezes: Most risk assets are stalled; only energy is attracting long-only managers.
• Byproducts at Risk: Concerns go beyond oil—helium, sulfur, and natural gas production disruptions could have major downstream impacts, especially for semiconductors.

Investor Positioning & Portfolio Construction

• Risk Aversion: Many asset managers are sidelined, unwilling to take new positions outside energy.
• Prediction Markets: Increasingly price boots on the ground in April at 70% probability.

3. Q&A: Macro Implications from Listener Questions

Midterms & Crypto

• U.S. Politics: The war is unpopular but not yet fatal for Trump—unless it expands considerably.
  • Quote (Mikkel): “If he can get away with it from this, with a seemingly win, maybe do a parade...it's going to be OK for the midterms.” [13:19]
• Crypto’s Resilience: Bitcoin and crypto have benefitted as capital escape routes in the region; technicals look weak, but downside has been contained for now.
  • Quote (Andreas): “It's probably overstating it a little bit. It has almost become a blessing in disguise for the crypto market, at least on a relative basis.” [14:37]

Portfolio Playbook for Pessimist (Permanent Damage Scenario)

• Inflation Hedging:
  • Germany’s March CPI numbers show an early inflation spike ("Hormuz inflation"), with energy the only consistently effective hedge.
    • Quote (Andreas): “There is only one solid hedge in the marketplace if inflation goes up and growth goes down, that is energy...energy stocks are the new bonds of a portfolio.” [18:12]
  • Advocates for a tech-plus-energy barbell over the classic 60/40 stocks/bonds mix.

Who Benefits Most When the Dust Settles?

• AI/Semiconductor Supply Chains: Not permanently impaired—should the blockade end, semiconductor stocks (currently lagging) could rally sharply due to pent-up demand and momentum in Asian exports.
  • Quote (Andreas): “Had it not been for this war, my best assumption is that semiconductor stocks would have been up between say 25 and 50% in March.” [21:27]

4. Upcoming Economic Data & Central Bank Watch

• ISM Manufacturing & Non-Farm Payrolls: Deemed less relevant due to outdated survey windows and the massive impact from the war—which dominates market sentiment.
  • Quote (Andreas): “Is it overly important? No, I think the market will just view it as outdated.” [23:22]
• Interest Rate Cuts: Unlikely until war trajectory is resolved; Europe and the UK are seen as more likely to ‘wait and see’ given current (energy-driven) inflation is not propagating systemically.

5. Capital Flows: Will EU Money Flee the US?

• Reality Check: Data does not support a ‘run’ on U.S. assets—capital still chases U.S. growth and earnings. Structural European equity problems remain.
  • Quote (Andreas): “By the end of the day the market is cynical. So if the true growth...comes from the U.S., the market will chase that.” [28:07]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Some call [Trump] the orange Jim Cramer now, and I'm not sure whether that's fair or not.”
  —Andreas, [03:28]

• “As I've said, time is running out. It’s simply not enough to just say that we’re still in negotiation, we simply need something more tangible now.”
  —Andreas, [04:41]

• “If this becomes a forever war, they [U.S. electorate] will begin to care. As long as this is a tip of the spear operation in the Middle East...yeah, who cares?”
  —Mikkel, [13:54]

• “Energy stocks are the new bonds of a portfolio.”
  —Andreas, [18:17]

• “Had it not been for this war, my best assumption is that semiconductor stocks would have been up between say 25 and 50% in March.”
  —Andreas, [21:27]

Key Segment Timestamps

• The New Macro Guru: Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Market Cynicism – 02:30–03:50
• US-Iran ‘Negotiation’ and Military Buildup Analysis – 04:00–08:00
• Market Positioning & Prediction Markets – 08:00–10:30
• Listener Q: War’s Political Impact/Crypto – 12:08–15:45
• What to Do if ‘Permanent Damage’ is Real – 17:30–19:30
• Sectors to Buy if/When the War Ends – 20:30–22:30
• Upcoming Economic Releases, Central Bank Reaction – 23:04–26:00
• EU Capital Flows & U.S. Dollar Dominance – 26:48–28:53

Tone & Takeaways

• Candid and Uncertain: The hosts openly acknowledge the high degree of uncertainty and the futility of over-confidence in predictions (“Sometimes Maybe Good, Sometimes Maybe Shit”).
• Actionable but Skeptical: Their best advice is to stay flexible, emphasize relative and energy trades, and wait for real—you know—negotiation progress.
• Key Watchpoints:
  • Watch for hard evidence of negotiation progress (not just headlines).
  • Track energy and semiconductor-related market signals.
  • Monitor U.S. macro data with skepticism, given global shocks remain the top driver.

Final Thoughts (Andreas):
“I count on the orange man doing the right thing here and it may be wrong. And then we’ll have to recalculate in a week from now.” [29:35]

For more actionable macro analysis, tune in to their upcoming interviews and updates, especially as the Iran situation continues to dictate global macro risk.