Macro Mondays — Episode: "The Printer Is Coming"
Host: Mikkel Wusall
Co-host: Andreas Steno Larsen
Date: November 10, 2025
Overview
This episode of Macro Mondays, titled "The Printer Is Coming", explores the current state of global macroeconomic liquidity, the US government shutdown, prospective stimulus measures, and their ramifications on the markets. Hosts Mikkel Wusall and Andreas Steno Larsen provide actionable insights into how liquidity issues are affecting risk assets, explain intricate mechanics of the US money market (especially repo transactions and SOFR), and discuss the political theater involving tariffs and stimulus checks. The show maintains its characteristic mix of serious, technical commentary and candid, occasionally irreverent, banter.
Key Discussion Points
1. US Government Shutdown and Market Liquidity
- Context & Reopening Prospects (03:26–11:00)
- Mikkel highlights the near-end of the US government shutdown, with an eye on how reopening will impact both public sentiment (“getting people their food stamps”) and liquidity flows.
- Political risks for Democrats backing a deal, but the hosts predict enough support to pass the reopening measure soon.
“It is a complicated issue because for the Democrats that are voting for this, it opens the risk of them being primaried ... by the left wing.”
— Mikkel (10:51)
Liquidity Importance
- Andreas explains that the money market is facing permanent, not just temporary, dollar shortages, leading the Fed toward a balance sheet expansion.
- Fed’s John Williams (NY Fed) signals that the expansion is imminent—a sentiment Andreas finds highly credible given Williams’ operational control.
“So when Williams say they will expand the balance sheet, they will expand the balance sheet. I can promise you that. The question is just the timing now. The question is the magnitude of that balance sheet expansion. But it’s coming. The printer is coming.”
— Andreas (13:34)
2. SOFR Spike, Repo Markets, and Systemic Risk
- SOFR Explained (05:57–16:57)
- Andreas offers an in-depth, technical breakdown of the SOFR rate—the key interest rate in the secured overnight funding (repo) market—and its connection to market liquidity and leverage.
- Repo market stress directly impacts levered funds (hedge funds, asset managers) which use it to take on risk; when rates spike, risk-taking shrinks, affecting risk assets across the board (crypto, options, leveraged stocks).
“When SOFR spikes, it is a result of not enough dollars being available for these players ... The more levered an asset class, the more impacted it is from the SOFR stress spike.”
— Andreas (07:32)
- Recent Stress Event:
- SOFR recently spiked above Fed funds—highlighting dollar scarcity.
- Good news: Stress fading as government injects liquidity with imminent reopening and Treasury General Account (TGA) unwinding.
- Bitcoin and Nasdaq rallied after the "SOFR flip" (SOFR > 0.2), illustrating immediate market sensitivity.
3. Nancy Pelosi: A Surprising Star Investor
- Tongue-in-cheek Discussion (00:59–02:48)
"Nancy Pelosi, one of the best investors, outperformed almost every hedge fund in 2024."
— Mikkel (01:25)
- The hosts humorously note the impressive track record attributed to Pelosi (largely due to her husband's trades) and joke about whether an ETF following her investments is warranted.
4. Stimulus Checks ("Tariff Dividends") and Political Maneuvering
- Trump’s Big Play (18:05–21:32)
- Trump proposes “tariff dividends”—direct $2,000 checks to adults funded from tariff revenue, echoing the COVID “helicopter money” approach.
- Unprecedented if implemented, dwarfing previous rounds.
“Is 2k per adult a lot? Oh, yeah, it is ... it would be the biggest single month for the personal income of US Households ever, also inflation adjusted. And remember what happened when you handed out all of these checks back in 2021 and so forth. It was just crazy times.” — Andreas (20:36)
- Mikkel is skeptical about Congress passing this, but acknowledges the growing political appetite for similar maneuvers as the “tasty” revenue tempts lawmakers.
5. Looking Ahead: Inflation, Macro Data, and Rate Cuts
- Inflation Expectations & Data Holdups (22:30–25:11)
- October inflation data may be missing or unreliable due to the shutdown.
- Real-time indicators from Steno Research show disinflation: Inflection toward lower CPI (~2.8–2.7%) by year-end.
“So in other words, it's most likely the case that we're heading towards 2.8, 2.7 and so on and so forth for the rest of the year, which is exactly what was needed to greenlight another cut in December from the Federal Reserve.”
— Andreas (24:11)
- Bad News Is Good News?
- Andreas expects “bad news” (lower inflation, soft data) will support the case for a December rate cut, which benefits high-beta assets.
- October, in particular, was weak (e.g., from China-US shipping standoffs).
“We’d actually like to see some pretty soft inflation data, bad data, if you know what I mean ... it would also be okay for the case if we received some pretty nasty growth data from October because I think we will.” — Andreas (25:50)
6. The Big Picture: America's Playbook
- Generational Bull Market? (28:36–29:04)
- Mikkel wraps up with a tweet summarizing the US strategy: inflate and grow out of the national debt via an “explosive generational bull market powered by AI and robotics.”
- Andreas wryly notes that whether “the plan will work is a discussion for another 30 minutes.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “An infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve.” (Clip from Neil Kaskari) (03:55)
- “The printer is coming.” — Andreas (13:42)
- “If they pay out 2k to each adult ... it would be the biggest single month for the personal income of US Households ever, also inflation adjusted.” — Andreas (20:53)
- “Bad news is good news ... especially for high beta bets such as Bitcoin.” — Andreas (25:11)
Key Timestamps
| Time | Segment | |:--------:|:--------------------------------------------------| | 00:24 | Episode intro; Pelosi’s investment returns | | 02:48 | Liquidity & SOFR setup | | 03:55 | Kaskari’s “infinite cash” clip | | 05:57 | SOFR spike, repo markets explained | | 10:37 | Government shutdown: reopening mechanics | | 13:34 | “The printer is coming” — Fed balance sheet | | 18:05 | Trump’s “tariff dividends” and stimulus | | 22:30 | Missing inflation data, real-time disinflation | | 25:11 | Rate cut thesis: “bad news is good news” | | 28:36 | America’s macro game plan |
Conclusion
"The Printer Is Coming" provides deep, actionable insight into the mechanics of dollar liquidity, repo markets, and Fed policy, explaining why these technical factors underpin recent asset price moves—and why the coming weeks could see a material inflection point. Political spectacle (Pelosi, Trump, tariffs) and inflation data uncertainty frame the macro backdrop. Andreas and Mikkel deliver both serious research and wry commentary, making this episode essential listening for anyone navigating today's volatile macro landscape.