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[00:00]
A
New week, Big moves.
[00:08]
B
You ready? Andreas on the data maker on the floor. Turn the headline into trade. You can know from yields to inflation, every chart, every trend. Get the story. Get this set up. From the open to the end. They try to be as actionable and as honest as possible. But keep in mind that their predictions might be sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe good. Sometimes maybe sometimes maybe. Summertime it may be good.
[00:45]
C
Summertime it may be.
[00:47]
B
It's Macro Mondays. Big picture Clear play. Stock bonds, fx, Crypto on the way. Get context strategy right now on your screen. Macro Mondays. Level up your week.
[01:06]
C
Hello out there. Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Miko Osenval. I'm your usual host every Monday here and as usual I'm joined by you, Andreas. Welcome to the show.
[01:17]
A
Thanks Michael. Good to see you with these colored curtains behind you. I know that studio.
[01:24]
C
You do? Yeah. It is quite a well known studio in Copenhagen, so for Danish people you might recognize it. But anyway, here we go. Very, very exciting week ahead. We have some, some very interesting stuff to talk about, Andreas. Obviously the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, even though we are getting sick of that, we have to touch upon it a little bit. But also looking at the growth outlook and the, the ramifications for markets and how market participants are navigating that particularly. We'll try and take a little bit of a dive into that today and then point some finger, point some, some paths also to our other publications this week. Remember this is our weekly free show where we give a sneak peek into our the research and the publications that we do on Real Vision. We have lots of other content on the Real Vision platform, especially if you're a Pro member. Tomorrow, Andreas, you and I host our monthly Macro Meets Micro. And this is where our portfolio update and actionable trade ideas are explained and really went through and we have something new on that I just wanted to show real quickly here if I can get the, the screen share up and running here. So we, we, we obviously do these monthly Micro me Micro shows. We post a every week, every Friday we post a portfolio update in article form. But now you can also track our portfolio live on the Real Vision Pro platform. So you need to click on the Pro icon in the left click on contributor position since ours will come up. It's the first one that's been implemented on site here and it's a really great tool to see what suggestions that we have. Currently I'm trying to scroll to show you what is in there without actually showing you what's in there. So hopefully I didn't give away too much but otherwise do check out Real Vision Pro for for full access to our recommendations. Been doing quite okay so far, Andreas. The the portfolio in a in a very very volatile year here. So so that's something to consider. Also I forgot to mention that on Wednesday we have two excellent shows. I'll be hosting Mali in Bengali to get an update on all markets and then Raul and Julian's bi monthly shooting the where they discuss charts and ideas that are at the essentially so so very, very brief conversation or a very frank conversation there and then obviously to complement that we have our usual reports coming out so lots of great content on the Real Vision platform. We will dive a little bit more into some of the stuff that we will discuss in the macro meets macro a bit later Andreas but I want to get started with some of the laughs of the week here and I wanted to start with some something that I sent you yesterday and this is a very good representation of the state of Aix at the moment. I know you brought along something as well, Andreas. So I saw this tweet last night from a random profile who said that the Norwegian and Danish royal yachts have set sea heading for Stockholm. And if you know a little bit about Scandinavian history, we've had our fights between Denmark, Norway and Sweden. So obviously there is a layer of are they going to do something here? What are these royal families doing? And obviously the truth here is addressed that the Swedish king Goa he's he turns 80 I think in on Thursday. Congratulations to him. Nothing to this but, but, but this vague doom posting is just everywhere on X at the moment. Royal experts at Heiden Alert. No, not at all.
[04:51]
A
This might admittedly be a joke but it's very well hidden in case and you know this, this vague hysteria is everywhere on X. So it's kind of sad. By the way, let me say that to the audience here, if you don't know a lot about Carl Gustav, the King of Sweden, please Google him. He's a pretty colorful insecurity profile. He's known as the Stripper King basically. So I don't think I've said too much.
[05:21]
C
Great character turns 80 this week. So big congratulations to him and our friends over in Sweden. Now that we've insulted their king, let's move on Andreas to another another Laugh of the Week. I put it on the Laugh of the Week. So if it is a joke, fair enough. And this is we've been discussing this a lot Andreas, because you and I spend A lot of time on X and other platforms. And this is something that in my mind sets aside our platform on Real Vision from X. Because on X it's very, very hard to find something that isn't AI's flop these days. You sent me this chart, Andreas, of the use of not just a something, it's a. This thing. That phrase has, has the usage of that, that phrase has skyrocketed obviously due to AI. It is one of the very, very the most significant markers of it and it's, it's killing eggs in my opinion. Address. What do you think?
[06:15]
A
So by the way, do notice here that it is a measure of the use of this phrase in company documents in the us. So basically quarterly reports. I've been a part of writing some of the content for Nordez old quarterly report, one of the big banks in Europe and we spent countless hours doing that without anyone reading it, I guess. So I'm actually a fan of letting AI write all of those reports. I'm especially a fan of letting AI write stuff that nobody reads, which holds true for a lot of documents, especially in big companies. But please, if you actually intend on something being read by others, do at least attempt to write the prompt yourself at the very least. I've stopped counting the number of takes I've seen on the straight of a moose, helium sulfur, all sorts of geopolitical commodity related stuff from accounts clearly not in the know. And admittedly I've been partially guilty of doing it once in a while, but I've actually, you know, I've told myself to stop it now. I mean stop using it unless you use it for something fruitful. Yeah, that's basically it.
[07:38]
C
You could use it to, to correct the language or whatever. This is not our first language so I use it for that as well to be completely transparent. But, and, and to do some of your base research, et cetera. Absolutely. It's great for that but, but, but for writing takes science analysis out there. No, it's, it's, it's not worth it. And that's what we, where we try to go with a lot of the content on, on, on, on real vision, especially the things that we publish. So Andreas, maybe sometimes it makes me want to join this club. The crusade against data centers. We have a lot of, lot of laughs of this week, Andre. Angry residents removed local council members and are now aiming to recall the mayor. Uh, in a, in Festus Montana I think it is. It's a small town in America where a big data center is planned. Uh, sometimes obviously A big contrast to all the reports we're getting from Max7 companies on Wednesday. They're probably going to show great growth, hopefully even stronger growth than last year in their cloud services. An enormous capex. But this one struck me a little bit because at what point do we begin to get backlash at this?
[08:43]
A
So to be honest, Mikul, this problem feels very familiar. You know, we're a small country. We have loads of wind turbines for the size of our country, also lots of solar. And every time you put up a wind turbine or a solar park, you have this issue. So I'm actually pleased to see that this issue is very much present in the US as well, because I sometimes get the impression that it's not. This is obviously one of the things that you need to deal with when you're building out data centers, also when you're building out the grid in conjunction with that. Because this particular story from Festus, as far as I'm concerned, one of our big portfolio positions, Bloom Energy, is supposed to deliver the exact decentralized electricity to that data center. So I mean, it is of course important also when you invest to consider these things because I'll perfectly admit to that. I probably would wouldn't accept living close to a data center either. No, I'll be honest about that. So there's a whole layer of logistics and infrastructural discussion that we need to solve here. And on the next page, which is an Iceland teaser for our show tomorrow, I'll spend a lot of time digesting what we've seen in the energy space, both, of course, from the Strait of the Moose, but also from some of these quote unquote, newer contributions to the electricity grid. First of all, nuclear. Nuclear, it's not new, but it's kind of seeing its renaissance in a sense. And then we have fuel cells, for example, Bloom Energy, as I mentioned, which has been on an absolute tier because it's one of the few technologies that you can use in a decentralized way. You don't need to connect to the grid. You can just run a fuel cell the locally and not care about whether the grid is about to overload or such things. And the big question now is whether nuclear was kind of the technology of choice for Scott Besant and his team. Fuel cells have so far been the technology of choice for executives taking a decision on ground where they don't want to be too sensitive to the electrical grid. But what about next year and the year after? I mean, we still have a load that we need to be able to cater for. And is solar the next trade? Maybe. Is it fossil fuels again, what's the next trade here? We'll spend a lot of time discussing that tomorrow.
[11:18]
C
It's going to be really interesting. Andreas. Okay, let's zoom out a little bit and take a look at the macro situation. Andreas, before that, I completely forgot in the opening to mention our usual catchphrase and our disclaimer here. And that's probably comes at a good point, if we begin to dive into the macro world here, that we try to be as actionable and honest as possible, but our trade ideas and analysis might be. Summertime is maybe good. Summertime it may be shit. Absolutely, Andreas. So let's dive into it and maybe. I know we're sick of it, but we have to start in Iran again, right? We had this week's. I mean, we had a complete shit show of a weekend, to be honest. No real negotiations taking place. Trump claiming that it's too expensive to fly to Pakistan to negotiate. Then this morning, like a clockwork, you have our. Or earlier today, you have the Monday Hopium package, as I like to call it. So you had, I think it was Axios who reported that Iran has staged a new peace offer, a new plan for peace. In my opinion, that's a big nothing burger. They've essentially offered a Greenland package where the actual issue at hand, the nuclear issue, is postponed to be dealt with at another time. And then you simply just reopen the strait. That's just turning back time to before the war without solving the nuclear issue. I find it very hard to believe that Donald Trump is going to buy into that. But we are left in a situation address, to put it very simply, where both parties believe they have the strategic patience. Both sides believe that they have more patience than the other part. And that leads to a situation where nothing is happening because neither party has any real incentive or any real pressure to actually engage in in negotiations. And we're seeing a poor development in ships through the strait, at least officially, because we are also hearing reports of loads of Iranian Shadow fleet ships sailing very, very close to the coastline, dribbling oil out to India at least. So how do you view the situation, Andreas, this stalemate and how markets are reacting to it right now?
[13:30]
A
Look at it this way. Both of the involved parties claim to have blocked the strait to begin with, so they obviously cannot publicly admit that oil is flowing at the same time. Neither of them can. Iran would never admit that some of the flows to the west, or maybe even to China are leaving from Iraq or Saudi Arabia in case it happens. And the US would never admit to the Iranian shadow fleet sailing along the coastline, first Iranian, then Pakistani and then Indian borders. But I think both are happening to some extent. To some extent. I don't know the extent, but to some extent. And both parties have an incentive in lying about it. To be honest. It's one of the things that I've said continuously over the past month or so that I think the flow is slightly better than what's being reported. And, and if you look at the so called oil on water measure, we have it on the screens in a second here. We also entered this conflict with quite a cushion. So if you look at the bottom right panel, first on crude oil, even with the extreme drawdown that we've seen since March, basically we're still in the higher end of what we we typically see on water. Right? So there is plenty of oil on water. Some of it is stuck in the region. But it's not like we have an immediate issue when it comes to crude. The immediate issue is more of a product thing. Look at jet fuel for example on the top left panel there. We're starting to deplete the floating storages at a pace that is not comfortable. So there are some niches that are under severe pressure already. But the overall picture is that we'll probably able to stomach this for longer than most people have thought and therefore I'm kind of in your camp now. Even though I've been wrong more than a few times during this four. I mean it's been very difficult to call the shots that I think the US is pretty okay with the situation as it is, sadly. And one example of it just over this weekend, I think it's on page 11. Miggle. We actually had negative NAT gas prices in parts of Texas. And please do remember that the NAT gas market is very regionalized. There's not one global infrastructure here. It's, it has become more global after the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to a larger build out of LNG infrastructure both on the receiving end and on the exporting end. But still in a situation where we currently have a very tight energy market, you can see negative NAT gas prices in parts of the US right? And overall if you look at the, say the input basket for necessities, so everything from NAT gas, thereby fertilizers, electricity, oil, oil products, et cetera. We are so far from the price spike that we saw in 2022. Even in Europe, we're so, so far from that. And the war in 2022 cornered at lock less barrels of oil a day than the current crisis. So it's quite amazing that a notionally much smaller crisis in 2022 had a much larger impact than a much larger crisis, at least on paper this time. So something is different. And I've basically spent my entire weekend writing up the thesis on why that is. And you can read that on Real vision.
[17:30]
C
Absolutely. Okay, Andreas. So both a gloomy outlook that this could take a while. Neither side has any intention really, or incentive at least to push for an end to this conflict. At the same time, it's not the end of the world, that's what you're saying.
[17:46]
A
So let me just say one thing, Miko, because it's also something to keep in mind every time we have these big geopolitical events, right? I think there's a discrepancy between the geopolitical risk and the impact of the geopolitical risk over time in markets, if you know what I mean. So the geopolitical risk is intact, but the impact on markets from a rate of change perspective is fading. So when I said around the first week of April that we would see a big rebound, and when I said two weeks ago that I considered the crisis to be over, I still stick to those words because from a market perspective, that's been 100% spot on, even though the optics of it look a little weird and or wrong, to be honest. When I said that the crisis was over. But I mean it from a market perspective that we've moved on as long as it kind of, of course, cannot drag on forever. But as long as there's perceived progress and they're talking to each other, et cetera, I don't think anyone's really worried right now, which is kind of odd, right?
[18:54]
C
Which is really odd considering that they're not even meeting yet. But there's a feeling that this can be done rather quickly. There's a feeling that neither side has any interest in escalating things as well. We've heard that from the U.S. administration. They're not even talking about that. And that is a big step forward from three weeks ago, so. Absolutely, Andreas. So I just want to pull up this chart because it also shows in the advisor sentiment. This is one of the charts I really love. We've seen a very, very clear shift over the past few weeks. So have advisors adapted to this and is this warranted?
[19:35]
A
So, first of all, I think the first conclusion here is that through February and March, both in the run up to the Iran war, but Also, during the first, say four, five weeks of the war, every advisor more or less panicked. Absolutely, or at least most of them did. So they started turning bearish. They probably sold parts of their clients portfolios, et cetera. And they turned bearish during that first window where geopolitical risk is actually impactful on markets. But they've been very slow to recover their bullishness despite the market going up. And remember, across the port we're out. Well, we are at all time highs. So the dark blue here should be at all time highs if the two were connected. Right, but they're obviously not. So another way of showing it is to just map market returns versus investor sentiment on page 13. And I don't think I've ever seen the kind of disconnect that I've seen say over the past 12 months or so. And it's been accelerating that disconnect between 1st of March and now. So we have the market going up and the overall sentiment from a momentum perspective going down. We also see it in the consumer sentiment, for example, it is at basically at all time lows while markets are going up. It's very, very rare to see this disconnect. And the way I see it is that this increases the probability of even stronger returns because it means that a lot of people haven't participated in this rally. And if you look at it, I'd like to show page 14 as well because I just saw this from one of the Goldman pieces out earlier. So thank you to Goldman for showing their numbers from their prime book. It's slightly small here, but what it shows on the left hand side is the gross leverage of the financial system in, in light blue. And it's been coming down throughout this crisis, basically meaning that funds that can use leverage, but also of course family, office, et cetera, they've used less leverage through this, meaning that they've probably net sold. Right. And if you look at the long short ratio, it's also come down on the right hand side here and it's still very low in a historical context. So it's not like the market is overly optimistic, it's not like the market is overly long. And the, the leverage, especially in net terms has come down a lot, but also gross terms over the course of the past eight weeks or so. So it also tells me that the rally that we've seen has been a low volume rally. It's not really been a rally that a lot of people bought into. And, and therefore if we, if we get the leverage on board this long side of the bend. Right. If we get the, the levered players to, to, to load up, basically you haven't seen nothing yet, if you know what I mean. So it's a very interesting schism this one that we have probably one of the most pessimistic periods over the course of the past three to four decades in sentiment surveys and solid returns. At the same time, this disconnect is incredible and it's only getting worse. So either this is, you know, a broad based symptom of tds, I hate using that phrase, but I guess you know what I mean that, you know, everyone's so focused on his rambling to the right, left and center right and all of his extreme rhetoric that they don't really look at the results and they don't need to look at what, what's fundamentally driving things here because by the end of the day, even though he's created some volatility, I actually don't think the underlying momentum is, is bad. So, so some of the policy initiatives that they put in place, they've actually done, done well. And, and most people tend to forget that.
[23:27]
C
Andre, One of the sectors doing really, really well during this rally is obviously semis and we've used this, this, this South Korea chart earlier. Can this go on? I mean even intel reporting strongly here. Where's the roof for, for, for simis and, and this connect here.
[23:48]
A
Yeah. So let's see whether we close in green today for semis. It's, I'm not sure at this stage. It's early in the trading day, but I think we had 18 consecutive updates up until Friday, probably returning roughly 50% in semis. So I mean it, it, it is basically the most incredible rally in semis ever, but it's also the most incredible demand side for semis ever. So this is the South Korean export number, but this is not the explicit export number for semiconductors. If you had used only the subcategory for semiconductors, the chart would have been through the roof. It's not like 160% or something like that year over year and never seen anything like it. Probably never will see anything like it again in growth terms. So it is very, very fair that semiconductors are through the roof. It's one of the most bizarre increases in the profitability and earnings cycle ever seen in tech. And I guess we'll get the first glimpse of whether the Max 7s will continue to buy into this. I'm of the view that you need to lean into this trade until, and let me stress until one of the biggest Max 7s decide to tell you that hey, we're going to scale down on capex and then it will be a very, very good timing to get out of the trade.
[25:10]
C
So the most most important macro number this week might be the growth rate in Microsoft Azure, aws, Google Cloud essentially. Exactly because, because we need to see that the capex investments are warranted. It doesn't mean that they're making money but it means that, that the market is growing at the same rate And I mean, I mean address usually you have a time lag we've talked a lot about time lags here today and what you see you have a time lag of these data centers one to two years until they're up and running. So who knows what the, the demand picture is going to be in two years but it's, it looks like it's going to be big. It look like looks like we're going to be in the same position as today where we wish, everyone wishes they had put more into capex two years ago. So that might also be the answer that we didn't put enough into cap happen.
[25:52]
A
So m another cliffhanger tomorrow. You know we traded first the GPU cycle. So I mean basically the brain of the data centers we traded the memory cycle very well this Ramageddon as it's been labeled Micron Hunx Samsung to some extent participated in that rally Sandisk not least then we had the photonics trade so basically the connectivity layer of the, of the data centers. But I think there is a big, big big trade brewing in power and I'll elaborate on that and, and how to trade it tomorrow. I mean I, I still think the overall semiconductor cycle is fine and you'll make decent returns but if you want those you know 5x returns then then you'll have to look at some of the niches that have haven't really participated in this rally yet.
[26:46]
C
Yeah and very under reported story and I've read this for a number of countries in the, in the EU probably also relevant across the the US is that in most countries in the EU at least the, the grid operators, the national grid operators are simply refusing new plugins essentially it's a big problem here
[27:05]
A
in, in in parts of the US as well.
[27:07]
C
So yeah exactly that is on the report that is essentially rationing of electricity and I mean if you're rationing something it, it means the demand is is much much bigger than the supply. So so, so absolutely Andreas Very very interesting macro backdrop for that and we will look into that tomorrow. A little bit of a. We've talked a lot about Scandinavia this week. I know. But a little bit of a cliffhanger as well here. No, if you're situated in Denmark. We talked a few weeks back that we were are throwing a live show in Copenhagen. It was almost sold out very quickly. So we're throwing another one on the November 27th and we're also doing a show in Aarhus. So to those of you Danish or maybe Swedish people who knows who are watching this, go go check out our. Our profiles for links to. To. To tickets for that if you want to. To watch our live show. It's going to be more of this. Less charts but. But even more banter.
[28:03]
B
Yeah.
[28:04]
A
And you know, to be honest, Miko, I've. I've also said to Raoul and the management team here at Real Vision that we need to go global with this tour. So we haven't booked those dates yet, but let's see.
[28:15]
C
No, yeah, let us know in the comment section where you want us to go. So there are some places we don't want to go, but feel free to suggest wherever we should. We should be headed. Anyways, guys, that's all we had for you this week. Thanks a lot for tuning into Macro Mondays here at Real Vision. We've got a great week ahead of you, ahead of us. So looking forward to see you on there. Thanks to you, you, Andreas, for. For joining us here and we'll see you all.

Summary6 min read

Macro Mondays — April 27, 2026

Episode Title: The Rally Nobody Believes In
Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Main Theme:
This episode explores the puzzling disconnect between surging equity markets and persistent bearish investor sentiment in the face of ongoing geopolitical fears—centering on the "rally nobody believes in." Andreas and Mikkel dive deep into energy market dynamics amid Middle Eastern tensions, examine the AI/data center boom and its infrastructure challenges, and analyze why markets have remained resilient despite global anxiety.

1. Introduction & Show Overview

[01:06] Mikkel welcomes listeners, highlighting Macro Mondays as a source for candid, actionable macro and geopolitical insights.
Portfolio Transparency: The hosts reference their fully transparent trade suggestions, now trackable live for Real Vision Pro subscribers.
Upcoming Content Teasers:
- Macro Meets Micro show (deep dive on portfolio/trade ideas).
- Recent and forthcoming Real Vision content spanning global markets.

2. "Laughs of the Week" — Social Media & AI Trends

Scandinavian Royal Yacht "Doom Posting"

[03:23] Mikkel recounts viral speculation on X/Twitter about Scandinavian royal movements— tongue-in-cheek highlighting the market’s current penchant for overreaction:

"This vague doom posting is just everywhere on X at the moment."
[04:51] Andreas jokes about King Carl Gustav's reputation, adding Scandinavian color and poking fun at hysteria.

AI's "This Is A..." Language Trend

[05:20] Discussion pivots to how AI-generated, formulaic language ("this is a...") dominates company documents, reflecting both productivity gains and authenticity losses.
[06:14] Andreas:

"I've stopped counting the number of takes I've seen on the Strait of a Moose, helium sulfur, all sorts of geopolitical commodity related stuff from accounts clearly not in the know... I've told myself to stop it now. I mean stop using it unless you use it for something fruitful."
[07:37] Both hosts agree: AI is useful for structure/language but not a substitute for original macro analysis.

Data Center Backlash & Local Resistance

[08:43] Mikkel brings up resident protests against a new data center in a small US town—wondering whether pushback against digital infrastructure is the next big thing, in tension with bullish big-tech reports.
[08:43] Andreas connects the story to European resistance to wind/solar infrastructure and notes the importance of local logistics in energy investing.
- Example: Bloom Energy’s role in powering data centers off-grid.

3. Energy Markets, Geopolitics & The Strait of Hormuz

Ongoing Stalemate & "Nothing Burgers"

[11:17] Mikkel reviews the apparent stalemate between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting “Monday Hopium” news cycles and skepticism on real negotiation substance:

"They've essentially offered a Greenland package where the actual issue at hand, the nuclear issue, is postponed... That’s just turning back time."

Oil Flows & Market Perception

[13:29] Andreas analyzes the real flows of oil—pointing out that both sides have incentives to underreport crude shipments:

"Both of the involved parties claim to have blocked the strait... but I think both are happening to some extent. And both parties have an incentive in lying about it."
[14:35] US negative natural gas prices (especially in Texas) are discussed as an anomaly in an overall tight energy market, illustrating regional supply/demand mismatches.

Key Insights:

Crude on water remains healthy despite crisis headlines.
Weakness is more acute in refined products like jet fuel—not crude.
The current crisis has had muted price impact versus the 2022 supply shock, even though underlying disruptions are greater.

Notable Quote:

[15:55]

"A notionally much smaller crisis in 2022 had a much larger impact than a much larger crisis, at least on paper this time. So something is different." —Andreas

4. Market Sentiment vs. Price Action: The Great Disconnect

Advisors & Investors Left Behind the Rally

[17:45] Andreas points to data showing sharp advisor pessimism throughout the Iran crisis, with slow recovery in bullishness even as markets powered to new highs.
[19:34]

"The market is going up and the overall sentiment... going down. It increases the probability of even stronger returns because a lot of people haven’t participated in this rally."
Charts discussed:
- Gross leverage and net exposure in financial system are at low levels, reinforcing that the rally has not been fueled by over-optimism or leverage—key for further upside.

Notable Quote:

[22:53]

"We have probably one of the most pessimistic periods over the past three to four decades in sentiment surveys and solid returns at the same time. This disconnect is incredible and it's only getting worse." —Andreas

Political/Fundamental Backdrop

Market appears to “move on” from crisis concerns if progress is perceived—geopolitical risk lingers, but its pricing impact fades over time.
Possible mass distraction by polarizing politics and media narratives ("everyone's so focused on [Trump's] rambling... they don't really look at the results").

5. The Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure Boom

Unstoppable Semi Rally—Can It Go On?

[23:26] Mikkel and Andreas examine why semiconductors are leading, referencing South Korea’s booming year-over-year export data and the "most incredible rally in semis ever."
[23:48] Andreas stresses that demand is unprecedented, and the cycle remains healthy until (and only until) a Big Tech “Max7” firm signals a reduction in CapEx.

"It is basically the most incredible rally in semis ever, but it’s also the most incredible demand side... You need to lean into this trade until... one of the biggest Max 7s decides to scale down on capex."

The Next Macro Tech Trade — Power & The Grid

[25:52] Andreas teases that, after trading GPUs, memory, and photonics, the next major trade is in power infrastructure—not just semiconductors, but the electricity that runs global data centers:

"There is a big, big, big trade brewing in power... if you want those 5x returns, look at some of the niches that haven’t really participated in this rally yet."

Underreported Grid Challenges

[26:46] Mikkel highlights that grid operators across Europe (and parts of the US) are rationing new data center plug-ins, signaling vast demand/supply imbalances:

"That is essentially rationing of electricity... the demand is much much bigger than the supply."

6. Scandinavian Banter & Live Show Tease

Mikkel announces new live events in Copenhagen and Aarhus after quick sell-outs ([27:05]), with a playful nudge for listeners to suggest global stops.
Lighter, personality-driven finish emphasizing community engagement and “banter” alongside serious charts and analysis.

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

[02:13] (introduction)

"Our trade ideas will be sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit." —Show's tagline
[05:20] (on AI content)

"I'm especially a fan of letting AI write stuff that nobody reads, which holds true for a lot of documents..."
[13:29] (on Strait of Hormuz reporting)

"Both of the involved parties claim to have blocked the strait... but I think both are happening to some extent."
[22:53] (on market/sentiment disconnect)

"This disconnect is incredible and it's only getting worse."
[25:52] (on power trade)

"There is a big, big, big trade brewing in power..."

8. Key Timestamps & Topics

[01:06] — Introduction & show structure
[03:23] — Social media “doom posting” & Scandinavian banter
[05:20] — AI-written analysis & industry trends
[08:43] — Data center backlash, local & energy market issues
[11:17] — Strait of Hormuz: US/Iran stalemate and market impact
[17:45] — Sentiment/price action disconnect & implications
[23:26] — Semiconductor sector surge, new tech cycle
[25:52] — Electricity grid & power market: the next macro trade
[27:05] — Live events, community engagement

9. Tone & Concluding Thoughts

Style: Candid, witty, sometimes tongue-in-cheek but data-driven.
Takeaways:
- The “rally nobody believes in” persists due to a massive disconnect between market action and prevailing sentiment.
- Geopolitical shocks fade in market relevance faster than headlines suggest.
- AI/digital economy trends create new logistical and investment bottlenecks—infrastructure is the next major trade.
- Despite global fears and doom-posting, actionable macro opportunities abound—if you’re willing to look past the noise.
- Macro Mondays blends sharp analysis with Nordic humor and a no-ego, no-hype perspective.

End of summary. For deeper portfolio specifics or actionable trades, check the Macro Meets Micro show or Real Vision Pro updates.

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Transcript28 lines

[00:00]
A
New week, Big moves.
[00:08]
B
You ready? Andreas on the data maker on the floor. Turn the headline into trade. You can know from yields to inflation, every chart, every trend. Get the story. Get this set up. From the open to the end. They try to be as actionable and as honest as possible. But keep in mind that their predictions might be sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe good. Sometimes maybe sometimes maybe. Summertime it may be good.
[00:45]
C
Summertime it may be.
[00:47]
B
It's Macro Mondays. Big picture Clear play. Stock bonds, fx, Crypto on the way. Get context strategy right now on your screen. Macro Mondays. Level up your week.
[01:06]
C
Hello out there. Welcome to Real Vision. Welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Miko Osenval. I'm your usual host every Monday here and as usual I'm joined by you, Andreas. Welcome to the show.
[01:17]
A
Thanks Michael. Good to see you with these colored curtains behind you. I know that studio.
[01:24]
C
You do? Yeah. It is quite a well known studio in Copenhagen, so for Danish people you might recognize it. But anyway, here we go. Very, very exciting week ahead. We have some, some very interesting stuff to talk about, Andreas. Obviously the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, even though we are getting sick of that, we have to touch upon it a little bit. But also looking at the growth outlook and the, the ramifications for markets and how market participants are navigating that particularly. We'll try and take a little bit of a dive into that today and then point some finger, point some, some paths also to our other publications this week. Remember this is our weekly free show where we give a sneak peek into our the research and the publications that we do on Real Vision. We have lots of other content on the Real Vision platform, especially if you're a Pro member. Tomorrow, Andreas, you and I host our monthly Macro Meets Micro. And this is where our portfolio update and actionable trade ideas are explained and really went through and we have something new on that I just wanted to show real quickly here if I can get the, the screen share up and running here. So we, we, we obviously do these monthly Micro me Micro shows. We post a every week, every Friday we post a portfolio update in article form. But now you can also track our portfolio live on the Real Vision Pro platform. So you need to click on the Pro icon in the left click on contributor position since ours will come up. It's the first one that's been implemented on site here and it's a really great tool to see what suggestions that we have. Currently I'm trying to scroll to show you what is in there without actually showing you what's in there. So hopefully I didn't give away too much but otherwise do check out Real Vision Pro for for full access to our recommendations. Been doing quite okay so far, Andreas. The the portfolio in a in a very very volatile year here. So so that's something to consider. Also I forgot to mention that on Wednesday we have two excellent shows. I'll be hosting Mali in Bengali to get an update on all markets and then Raul and Julian's bi monthly shooting the where they discuss charts and ideas that are at the essentially so so very, very brief conversation or a very frank conversation there and then obviously to complement that we have our usual reports coming out so lots of great content on the Real Vision platform. We will dive a little bit more into some of the stuff that we will discuss in the macro meets macro a bit later Andreas but I want to get started with some of the laughs of the week here and I wanted to start with some something that I sent you yesterday and this is a very good representation of the state of Aix at the moment. I know you brought along something as well, Andreas. So I saw this tweet last night from a random profile who said that the Norwegian and Danish royal yachts have set sea heading for Stockholm. And if you know a little bit about Scandinavian history, we've had our fights between Denmark, Norway and Sweden. So obviously there is a layer of are they going to do something here? What are these royal families doing? And obviously the truth here is addressed that the Swedish king Goa he's he turns 80 I think in on Thursday. Congratulations to him. Nothing to this but, but, but this vague doom posting is just everywhere on X at the moment. Royal experts at Heiden Alert. No, not at all.
[04:51]
A
This might admittedly be a joke but it's very well hidden in case and you know this, this vague hysteria is everywhere on X. So it's kind of sad. By the way, let me say that to the audience here, if you don't know a lot about Carl Gustav, the King of Sweden, please Google him. He's a pretty colorful insecurity profile. He's known as the Stripper King basically. So I don't think I've said too much.
[05:21]
C
Great character turns 80 this week. So big congratulations to him and our friends over in Sweden. Now that we've insulted their king, let's move on Andreas to another another Laugh of the Week. I put it on the Laugh of the Week. So if it is a joke, fair enough. And this is we've been discussing this a lot Andreas, because you and I spend A lot of time on X and other platforms. And this is something that in my mind sets aside our platform on Real Vision from X. Because on X it's very, very hard to find something that isn't AI's flop these days. You sent me this chart, Andreas, of the use of not just a something, it's a. This thing. That phrase has, has the usage of that, that phrase has skyrocketed obviously due to AI. It is one of the very, very the most significant markers of it and it's, it's killing eggs in my opinion. Address. What do you think?
[06:15]
A
So by the way, do notice here that it is a measure of the use of this phrase in company documents in the us. So basically quarterly reports. I've been a part of writing some of the content for Nordez old quarterly report, one of the big banks in Europe and we spent countless hours doing that without anyone reading it, I guess. So I'm actually a fan of letting AI write all of those reports. I'm especially a fan of letting AI write stuff that nobody reads, which holds true for a lot of documents, especially in big companies. But please, if you actually intend on something being read by others, do at least attempt to write the prompt yourself at the very least. I've stopped counting the number of takes I've seen on the straight of a moose, helium sulfur, all sorts of geopolitical commodity related stuff from accounts clearly not in the know. And admittedly I've been partially guilty of doing it once in a while, but I've actually, you know, I've told myself to stop it now. I mean stop using it unless you use it for something fruitful. Yeah, that's basically it.
[07:38]
C
You could use it to, to correct the language or whatever. This is not our first language so I use it for that as well to be completely transparent. But, and, and to do some of your base research, et cetera. Absolutely. It's great for that but, but, but for writing takes science analysis out there. No, it's, it's, it's not worth it. And that's what we, where we try to go with a lot of the content on, on, on, on real vision, especially the things that we publish. So Andreas, maybe sometimes it makes me want to join this club. The crusade against data centers. We have a lot of, lot of laughs of this week, Andre. Angry residents removed local council members and are now aiming to recall the mayor. Uh, in a, in Festus Montana I think it is. It's a small town in America where a big data center is planned. Uh, sometimes obviously A big contrast to all the reports we're getting from Max7 companies on Wednesday. They're probably going to show great growth, hopefully even stronger growth than last year in their cloud services. An enormous capex. But this one struck me a little bit because at what point do we begin to get backlash at this?
[08:43]
A
So to be honest, Mikul, this problem feels very familiar. You know, we're a small country. We have loads of wind turbines for the size of our country, also lots of solar. And every time you put up a wind turbine or a solar park, you have this issue. So I'm actually pleased to see that this issue is very much present in the US as well, because I sometimes get the impression that it's not. This is obviously one of the things that you need to deal with when you're building out data centers, also when you're building out the grid in conjunction with that. Because this particular story from Festus, as far as I'm concerned, one of our big portfolio positions, Bloom Energy, is supposed to deliver the exact decentralized electricity to that data center. So I mean, it is of course important also when you invest to consider these things because I'll perfectly admit to that. I probably would wouldn't accept living close to a data center either. No, I'll be honest about that. So there's a whole layer of logistics and infrastructural discussion that we need to solve here. And on the next page, which is an Iceland teaser for our show tomorrow, I'll spend a lot of time digesting what we've seen in the energy space, both, of course, from the Strait of the Moose, but also from some of these quote unquote, newer contributions to the electricity grid. First of all, nuclear. Nuclear, it's not new, but it's kind of seeing its renaissance in a sense. And then we have fuel cells, for example, Bloom Energy, as I mentioned, which has been on an absolute tier because it's one of the few technologies that you can use in a decentralized way. You don't need to connect to the grid. You can just run a fuel cell the locally and not care about whether the grid is about to overload or such things. And the big question now is whether nuclear was kind of the technology of choice for Scott Besant and his team. Fuel cells have so far been the technology of choice for executives taking a decision on ground where they don't want to be too sensitive to the electrical grid. But what about next year and the year after? I mean, we still have a load that we need to be able to cater for. And is solar the next trade? Maybe. Is it fossil fuels again, what's the next trade here? We'll spend a lot of time discussing that tomorrow.
[11:18]
C
It's going to be really interesting. Andreas. Okay, let's zoom out a little bit and take a look at the macro situation. Andreas, before that, I completely forgot in the opening to mention our usual catchphrase and our disclaimer here. And that's probably comes at a good point, if we begin to dive into the macro world here, that we try to be as actionable and honest as possible, but our trade ideas and analysis might be. Summertime is maybe good. Summertime it may be shit. Absolutely, Andreas. So let's dive into it and maybe. I know we're sick of it, but we have to start in Iran again, right? We had this week's. I mean, we had a complete shit show of a weekend, to be honest. No real negotiations taking place. Trump claiming that it's too expensive to fly to Pakistan to negotiate. Then this morning, like a clockwork, you have our. Or earlier today, you have the Monday Hopium package, as I like to call it. So you had, I think it was Axios who reported that Iran has staged a new peace offer, a new plan for peace. In my opinion, that's a big nothing burger. They've essentially offered a Greenland package where the actual issue at hand, the nuclear issue, is postponed to be dealt with at another time. And then you simply just reopen the strait. That's just turning back time to before the war without solving the nuclear issue. I find it very hard to believe that Donald Trump is going to buy into that. But we are left in a situation address, to put it very simply, where both parties believe they have the strategic patience. Both sides believe that they have more patience than the other part. And that leads to a situation where nothing is happening because neither party has any real incentive or any real pressure to actually engage in in negotiations. And we're seeing a poor development in ships through the strait, at least officially, because we are also hearing reports of loads of Iranian Shadow fleet ships sailing very, very close to the coastline, dribbling oil out to India at least. So how do you view the situation, Andreas, this stalemate and how markets are reacting to it right now?
[13:30]
A
Look at it this way. Both of the involved parties claim to have blocked the strait to begin with, so they obviously cannot publicly admit that oil is flowing at the same time. Neither of them can. Iran would never admit that some of the flows to the west, or maybe even to China are leaving from Iraq or Saudi Arabia in case it happens. And the US would never admit to the Iranian shadow fleet sailing along the coastline, first Iranian, then Pakistani and then Indian borders. But I think both are happening to some extent. To some extent. I don't know the extent, but to some extent. And both parties have an incentive in lying about it. To be honest. It's one of the things that I've said continuously over the past month or so that I think the flow is slightly better than what's being reported. And, and if you look at the so called oil on water measure, we have it on the screens in a second here. We also entered this conflict with quite a cushion. So if you look at the bottom right panel, first on crude oil, even with the extreme drawdown that we've seen since March, basically we're still in the higher end of what we we typically see on water. Right? So there is plenty of oil on water. Some of it is stuck in the region. But it's not like we have an immediate issue when it comes to crude. The immediate issue is more of a product thing. Look at jet fuel for example on the top left panel there. We're starting to deplete the floating storages at a pace that is not comfortable. So there are some niches that are under severe pressure already. But the overall picture is that we'll probably able to stomach this for longer than most people have thought and therefore I'm kind of in your camp now. Even though I've been wrong more than a few times during this four. I mean it's been very difficult to call the shots that I think the US is pretty okay with the situation as it is, sadly. And one example of it just over this weekend, I think it's on page 11. Miggle. We actually had negative NAT gas prices in parts of Texas. And please do remember that the NAT gas market is very regionalized. There's not one global infrastructure here. It's, it has become more global after the Russian invasion of Ukraine due to a larger build out of LNG infrastructure both on the receiving end and on the exporting end. But still in a situation where we currently have a very tight energy market, you can see negative NAT gas prices in parts of the US right? And overall if you look at the, say the input basket for necessities, so everything from NAT gas, thereby fertilizers, electricity, oil, oil products, et cetera. We are so far from the price spike that we saw in 2022. Even in Europe, we're so, so far from that. And the war in 2022 cornered at lock less barrels of oil a day than the current crisis. So it's quite amazing that a notionally much smaller crisis in 2022 had a much larger impact than a much larger crisis, at least on paper this time. So something is different. And I've basically spent my entire weekend writing up the thesis on why that is. And you can read that on Real vision.
[17:30]
C
Absolutely. Okay, Andreas. So both a gloomy outlook that this could take a while. Neither side has any intention really, or incentive at least to push for an end to this conflict. At the same time, it's not the end of the world, that's what you're saying.
[17:46]
A
So let me just say one thing, Miko, because it's also something to keep in mind every time we have these big geopolitical events, right? I think there's a discrepancy between the geopolitical risk and the impact of the geopolitical risk over time in markets, if you know what I mean. So the geopolitical risk is intact, but the impact on markets from a rate of change perspective is fading. So when I said around the first week of April that we would see a big rebound, and when I said two weeks ago that I considered the crisis to be over, I still stick to those words because from a market perspective, that's been 100% spot on, even though the optics of it look a little weird and or wrong, to be honest. When I said that the crisis was over. But I mean it from a market perspective that we've moved on as long as it kind of, of course, cannot drag on forever. But as long as there's perceived progress and they're talking to each other, et cetera, I don't think anyone's really worried right now, which is kind of odd, right?
[18:54]
C
Which is really odd considering that they're not even meeting yet. But there's a feeling that this can be done rather quickly. There's a feeling that neither side has any interest in escalating things as well. We've heard that from the U.S. administration. They're not even talking about that. And that is a big step forward from three weeks ago, so. Absolutely, Andreas. So I just want to pull up this chart because it also shows in the advisor sentiment. This is one of the charts I really love. We've seen a very, very clear shift over the past few weeks. So have advisors adapted to this and is this warranted?
[19:35]
A
So, first of all, I think the first conclusion here is that through February and March, both in the run up to the Iran war, but Also, during the first, say four, five weeks of the war, every advisor more or less panicked. Absolutely, or at least most of them did. So they started turning bearish. They probably sold parts of their clients portfolios, et cetera. And they turned bearish during that first window where geopolitical risk is actually impactful on markets. But they've been very slow to recover their bullishness despite the market going up. And remember, across the port we're out. Well, we are at all time highs. So the dark blue here should be at all time highs if the two were connected. Right, but they're obviously not. So another way of showing it is to just map market returns versus investor sentiment on page 13. And I don't think I've ever seen the kind of disconnect that I've seen say over the past 12 months or so. And it's been accelerating that disconnect between 1st of March and now. So we have the market going up and the overall sentiment from a momentum perspective going down. We also see it in the consumer sentiment, for example, it is at basically at all time lows while markets are going up. It's very, very rare to see this disconnect. And the way I see it is that this increases the probability of even stronger returns because it means that a lot of people haven't participated in this rally. And if you look at it, I'd like to show page 14 as well because I just saw this from one of the Goldman pieces out earlier. So thank you to Goldman for showing their numbers from their prime book. It's slightly small here, but what it shows on the left hand side is the gross leverage of the financial system in, in light blue. And it's been coming down throughout this crisis, basically meaning that funds that can use leverage, but also of course family, office, et cetera, they've used less leverage through this, meaning that they've probably net sold. Right. And if you look at the long short ratio, it's also come down on the right hand side here and it's still very low in a historical context. So it's not like the market is overly optimistic, it's not like the market is overly long. And the, the leverage, especially in net terms has come down a lot, but also gross terms over the course of the past eight weeks or so. So it also tells me that the rally that we've seen has been a low volume rally. It's not really been a rally that a lot of people bought into. And, and therefore if we, if we get the leverage on board this long side of the bend. Right. If we get the, the levered players to, to, to load up, basically you haven't seen nothing yet, if you know what I mean. So it's a very interesting schism this one that we have probably one of the most pessimistic periods over the course of the past three to four decades in sentiment surveys and solid returns. At the same time, this disconnect is incredible and it's only getting worse. So either this is, you know, a broad based symptom of tds, I hate using that phrase, but I guess you know what I mean that, you know, everyone's so focused on his rambling to the right, left and center right and all of his extreme rhetoric that they don't really look at the results and they don't need to look at what, what's fundamentally driving things here because by the end of the day, even though he's created some volatility, I actually don't think the underlying momentum is, is bad. So, so some of the policy initiatives that they put in place, they've actually done, done well. And, and most people tend to forget that.
[23:27]
C
Andre, One of the sectors doing really, really well during this rally is obviously semis and we've used this, this, this South Korea chart earlier. Can this go on? I mean even intel reporting strongly here. Where's the roof for, for, for simis and, and this connect here.
[23:48]
A
Yeah. So let's see whether we close in green today for semis. It's, I'm not sure at this stage. It's early in the trading day, but I think we had 18 consecutive updates up until Friday, probably returning roughly 50% in semis. So I mean it, it, it is basically the most incredible rally in semis ever, but it's also the most incredible demand side for semis ever. So this is the South Korean export number, but this is not the explicit export number for semiconductors. If you had used only the subcategory for semiconductors, the chart would have been through the roof. It's not like 160% or something like that year over year and never seen anything like it. Probably never will see anything like it again in growth terms. So it is very, very fair that semiconductors are through the roof. It's one of the most bizarre increases in the profitability and earnings cycle ever seen in tech. And I guess we'll get the first glimpse of whether the Max 7s will continue to buy into this. I'm of the view that you need to lean into this trade until, and let me stress until one of the biggest Max 7s decide to tell you that hey, we're going to scale down on capex and then it will be a very, very good timing to get out of the trade.
[25:10]
C
So the most most important macro number this week might be the growth rate in Microsoft Azure, aws, Google Cloud essentially. Exactly because, because we need to see that the capex investments are warranted. It doesn't mean that they're making money but it means that, that the market is growing at the same rate And I mean, I mean address usually you have a time lag we've talked a lot about time lags here today and what you see you have a time lag of these data centers one to two years until they're up and running. So who knows what the, the demand picture is going to be in two years but it's, it looks like it's going to be big. It look like looks like we're going to be in the same position as today where we wish, everyone wishes they had put more into capex two years ago. So that might also be the answer that we didn't put enough into cap happen.
[25:52]
A
So m another cliffhanger tomorrow. You know we traded first the GPU cycle. So I mean basically the brain of the data centers we traded the memory cycle very well this Ramageddon as it's been labeled Micron Hunx Samsung to some extent participated in that rally Sandisk not least then we had the photonics trade so basically the connectivity layer of the, of the data centers. But I think there is a big, big big trade brewing in power and I'll elaborate on that and, and how to trade it tomorrow. I mean I, I still think the overall semiconductor cycle is fine and you'll make decent returns but if you want those you know 5x returns then then you'll have to look at some of the niches that have haven't really participated in this rally yet.
[26:46]
C
Yeah and very under reported story and I've read this for a number of countries in the, in the EU probably also relevant across the the US is that in most countries in the EU at least the, the grid operators, the national grid operators are simply refusing new plugins essentially it's a big problem here
[27:05]
A
in, in in parts of the US as well.
[27:07]
C
So yeah exactly that is on the report that is essentially rationing of electricity and I mean if you're rationing something it, it means the demand is is much much bigger than the supply. So so, so absolutely Andreas Very very interesting macro backdrop for that and we will look into that tomorrow. A little bit of a. We've talked a lot about Scandinavia this week. I know. But a little bit of a cliffhanger as well here. No, if you're situated in Denmark. We talked a few weeks back that we were are throwing a live show in Copenhagen. It was almost sold out very quickly. So we're throwing another one on the November 27th and we're also doing a show in Aarhus. So to those of you Danish or maybe Swedish people who knows who are watching this, go go check out our. Our profiles for links to. To. To tickets for that if you want to. To watch our live show. It's going to be more of this. Less charts but. But even more banter.
[28:03]
B
Yeah.
[28:04]
A
And you know, to be honest, Miko, I've. I've also said to Raoul and the management team here at Real Vision that we need to go global with this tour. So we haven't booked those dates yet, but let's see.
[28:15]
C
No, yeah, let us know in the comment section where you want us to go. So there are some places we don't want to go, but feel free to suggest wherever we should. We should be headed. Anyways, guys, that's all we had for you this week. Thanks a lot for tuning into Macro Mondays here at Real Vision. We've got a great week ahead of you, ahead of us. So looking forward to see you on there. Thanks to you, you, Andreas, for. For joining us here and we'll see you all.