Macro Mondays: "The Real Risk Goes Beyond War"

Hosts: Andreas Steno Larsen & Mikkel Rosenvold
Date: March 23, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Macro Mondays dives deep into the rapidly evolving macro and geopolitical landscape, with a primary focus on the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and its ripple effects across global markets. Andreas and Mikkel navigate volatile market reactions, dissect the real economic consequences of war, and examine the interplay between political decisions and financial systems. Amidst the seriousness, they also offer candid, sometimes irreverent takes on leadership decisions, the metaverse meltdown, and the challenges of finding accurate information during crisis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Volatility Under the Trump Presidency

• Unpredictable Market Swings:

  • Mondays are never boring—especially under President Trump, whose spontaneous announcements create "random, arbitrary volatility" in markets.
  • “I don't think we've ever had a presidency with as much random, arbitrary volatility creation as the one with Trump here… It's incredibly sad that politicians do not face the same economic consequences as the most market participants from this volatility.” — Andreas [01:35]

• Market Participants vs. Politicians:

  • Political leaders, unlike traders, are insulated from the financial fallout of their decisions, which may encourage more erratic policy moves.

2. War Headlines and Real Economy Damage

• Breaking News Interruptions:
  • Episode references live reactions to breaking headlines, highlighting real-time stress for market participants.
• U.S.–Iran Conflict Developments:
  • Trump threatened strikes on Iranian power plants within 48 hours unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened; threat later pushed back as indirect negotiations emerged.
  • Pakistani, Turkish, and Egyptian intermediaries facilitate "back-channel" talks, involving U.S. and Iranian diplomats (Steve Witkoff, possibly Jared Kushner, and high-ranking Iranians) [09:00+].

Notable Quote:

“There have been what we call indirect talks. The trio of Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt have had talks with both Steve Witkoff, the US envoy, and most likely either the Iranian Foreign Minister... So we know these indirect talks have been happening.” — Mikkel [08:39]

• Market Relief Rally:

  • Pricing out the risk of retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure; markets stabilize somewhat after a period of high anxiety.
  • “We’re not back to where we were at the beginning of the war… but as long as this is solved this week or next, we’ll get through this without any major shock to the business cycle.” — Andreas [12:47]

• Lag Effects and Real Damage:

  • Even if crisis ends promptly, there is “lagged” damage—e.g., supply shortages surface because shipping disruptions take weeks to materialize (Qatar to Japan).

Notable Quote:

“The clock is starting to tick now… the countdown until this turns really bad basically starts right from today because there's a lag between the beginning of the war and until you see the actual supply shortages.” — Andreas [11:43]

3. Negotiation Dynamics & Iranian Motivations

• What Each Side Wants:
  • U.S. likely to walk away satisfied if objectives (contain Iran, keep Strait open) are met—though complete nuclear disarmament is unlikely.
  • Iran is negotiating from a position of regime survival—requiring tangible security guarantees, hosted either in strategic control or international assurances from powers like Russia/China.

Notable Quote:

“So the Iranians either have to keep that hostage [Strait of Hormuz] to make sure that the US don't attack them, or they need something to replace that… they need some sort of security guarantee that covers not only the US but also Israel.” — Mikkel [14:25]

• Internal Iranian Politics:
  • There may be power struggles between clerical, IRGC, and civilian leadership—potential for a behind-the-scenes realignment, making subsequent U.S.–Iran negotiations more plausible.

Notable Quote:

“It's possible… that we are seeing some power struggles between the clerical side, the priests and the IRGC, and then the civilian leadership… That would make it a lot easier for the US to do a deal with them.” — Mikkel [17:33]

4. Information Reliability in Wartime

• Cautions on News Reporting:
  • Both hosts warn against taking either side’s wartime information at face value. Open source intelligence (OSINT) is helpful but not infallible.

Notable Quote:

“You cannot trust either side for true information in times of war… it is incredibly difficult to find information that is 100% accurate in times of war.” — Andreas [19:09]

5. Macro & Monetary Policy Implications

• Federal Reserve & Interest Rates:

  • Fed held rates steady; increased inflation expectations due to oil price jumps, yet kept policy outlook unchanged.
  • "I think it was very clever that the Federal Reserve basically… upped their inflation forecast… But other than that, they basically kept everything intact." — Andreas [21:13]

• Money Markets and Hedge Fund Positioning:

  • Hedge funds have deleveraged, reducing risks and directional bets.
  • If “fog dissipates” and clarity returns, expect sharp spike in risk appetite and market activity.

Notable Quote:

“When you see a deleveraging event among hedge funds, it basically also means that they have to borrow less in the repo market… in this kind of environment… you cannot take a lot of risk... we will see a slow grind, lower in risk assets.” — Andreas [23:53 / 25:18]

6. Political Optics and Cabinet Stability

• Scott Besant’s TV Appearance:

  • Listener question about the Treasury Secretary’s poor TV performance—does it threaten his position?
  • "Unless you're a pathological liar, you cannot just make that kind of U-turn without sounding stupid. I mean, I'm sorry, but it's just impossible. They've said the opposite 12 months in a row." — Andreas [27:17]

• Funding the War:

  • Discussion of U.S. fiscal mechanics, including the Treasury General Account and war financing [28:42+].

Memorable Moments & Lighter Segments

The Metaverse Meltdown (06:34)

• Mikkel shares a “laugh of the week”—the demise of metaverse property investments:
  • “Maybe one place that's worse to own real estate than Dubai right now… the Metaverse. This guy mentioned that he owned four properties in the Metaverse… and the frontier closed last week… very, very happy I didn't cash out on property in there.”
• Andreas replies:
  • “I'm not sure which one is more empty, Dubai or the Metaverse at the moment, but I thankfully never got involved in it.” [07:35]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:06–02:49: Opening remarks — Trump’s market shocks, volatility, political incentives
• 08:10–13:20: U.S.–Iran updates — indirect talks, market rallies, supply chain lags
• 13:20–19:04: Geopolitical motives — Iran’s endgame, power struggles, nuclear questions
• 19:04–20:36: On unreliable wartime information and OSINT sources
• 21:08–25:44: Fed reaction, interest rate outlook, hedge funds’ market positions
• 26:34–29:23: U.S. cabinet and war funding discussion
• 06:34–08:10: Metaverse property bubble commentary (humorous aside)

Notable Quotes

• “I don't think we've ever had a presidency with as much random, arbitrary volatility creation as the one with Trump here.” — Andreas [01:35]
• “The clock is starting to tick now… the countdown until this turns really bad basically starts right from today…” — Andreas [11:43]
• “So the Iranians either have to keep that hostage [Strait of Hormuz]… or… need some sort of security guarantee…” — Mikkel [14:25]
• “You cannot trust either side for true information in times of war…” — Andreas [19:09]
• “[The Fed] basically kept everything intact… very clever.” — Andreas [21:13]
• “Unless you're a pathological liar, you cannot just make that kind of U turn without sounding stupid.” — Andreas [27:17]
• “I'm not sure which one is more empty, Dubai or the Metaverse.” — Andreas [07:35]

Episode Tone and Takeaways

The discussion combines sharp macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis with frank, sometimes irreverent commentary. The hosts stress caution, realism, and the limits of foresight in times of high uncertainty. For listeners, the message is clear: prepare for surprises, trust no single news source in a crisis, and recognize that sometimes—just as the show's catchphrase says—trade ideas (and predictions) might be "sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit."