The Tariff Battle Heats Up

Summary

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Macro Mondays – "The Tariff Battle Heats Up"

Host: Milo Rosenhol
Guest: Andreas Steno Larsen
Date: October 27, 2025

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Overview

In this episode of Macro Mondays, Milo Rosenhol and Andreas Steno Larsen provide an in-depth, timely analysis of the latest developments in global trade tensions, focusing on the ongoing US-China tariff battle and its wider macroeconomic implications. The conversation centers around rare earth supply chains, the politics of tariffs, market reactions, and the far-reaching effects for investors navigating global volatility. They also address inflation, market liquidity, and field key audience questions on actionable trade ideas.

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Main Discussion Points & Key Insights

1. Market Relief & the Prospect of a Trade Truce

• Market Reaction:

  • Big relief rally with the Nasdaq up 350+ points, attributed to Scott Besson’s comments hinting at a potential US-China trade truce.
  • Key event: Anticipation around the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea.

    "Big relief rally on the back of Scott Besson's comments yesterday that we have some sort of trade truce with China on the cards."
    — Andreas (01:59)

• Rare Earths Remain Center Stage:

  • Rare earth magnets (crucial for advanced tech and defense) are a bargaining chip in US-China tensions.
  • Latest deal framework "kicks the can down the road" but doesn't resolve core vulnerabilities.

    "We’ve bought ourselves some very, very valuable time on this whole question on trade, not least related to Rare earths."
    — Andreas (02:30)

2. Strategic Leverage: China’s Rare Earth Domination

• Short-term Leverage, Long-term Response:

  • West is forced to concede significant advantages to China in exchange for rare earth access; dynamic unlikely to shift in under 12 months.
  • China’s bargaining power is significant, especially in sectors from defense to semiconductors.

    "China knows that they've built this upper hand, this advantage, and they're going to play it over the coming... the geopolitical chessboard might change entirely over the next 12 months. But the rare earth dynamic is going to be mostly the same."
    — Milo (06:13)

• Western Supply Chain Reactions:

  • EU passing the Rare Earth Minerals Act, US (under Trump) ramping up federal efforts to secure non-Chinese sourcing.

3. Geopolitical Context: Is This a Lasting Shift?

• Military Implications:
  • Open questions remain about whether China will uphold their ban on supplying rare earth magnets for US military technology.

    "Is this the actual reason why Trump is holding back on the Tomahawks to Ukraine? Is it out of fear that the US is simply running out of ammunition, so to speak?"
    — Andreas (07:53)

• Western Response:
  • Action is coming, but breaking dependency on China is years—if not decades—away.

4. Market Sentiment & Volatility

• Political Risk Now a Constant:
  • Political standoffs keep driving markets in whiplash cycles of risk-on/risk-off.

    "I can't recall a year where political standoffs have had such an importance for markets... back and forth, back and forth."
    — Andreas (09:50)

• Long-Term Decoupling:
  • Despite ongoing trade, the US and China are on an inevitable path to economic decoupling, especially in critical sectors.

5. Inflation & Macro Backdrop

• Latest CPI Print:

  • Inflation is lower and less sticky than predicted, due in part to falling freight prices and slowly distributed tariffs impact.

• Freight Rates & Supply Chain Decoupling:

  • Shipping rates from China to the West are benign; another sign of the slow decoupling and adaptations in global logistics.

    "We're seeing very, very benign freight rates, which obviously also aids the CPI picture... also testament to the slowly building decoupling of these economies."
    — Milo (16:45)

• Tariffs and Consumer Prices:

  • Tariffs’ impact is muted and distributed globally—not simply a direct tax on US consumers.

    "A tariff is the only tax where you can actually feasibly claim that a part of the bill is paid by foreigners."
    — Andreas (18:36)

6. Audience Q&A Highlights

• S&P Correction Risk ([19:09]):

  • Andreas believes the worst is past for the S&P on the China story; minor near-term data weakness won’t likely derail the broader positive trend.

    "I don't think you should care too much about a small setback ... the overall trend still looks benign."
    — Andreas (19:46)

• Silver Outlook ([21:00]):

  • Silver remains technically bullish; driven by a weak dollar, uptick in manufacturing, the gold rush in the global south, and the solar industry.

    "Silver looks incredibly bullish technically still, at least if you zoom out a little bit."
    — Andreas (21:14)

• Liquidity Triggers ([22:55]):

  • Reserve scarcity is emerging; the Federal Reserve may have to add liquidity soon to control money market rates—decision expected before year-end.

    "Now they need to add liquidity if they want to control short term money market rates... we'll get some early clues already this week."
    — Andreas (22:55)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Political Fatigue & Market Cycles:

  "A decade back, a US government shutdown would have been a huge market crisis. We're not even talking about. Doesn't even matter almost to markets..."
  — Milo (10:43)

• On Repeatedly “Kicking the Can Down the Road”:

  "They’ve shown their willingness to use this against the West... we're past the point where the west can just lean back and accept to be this reliant on China in such an important supply chain."
  — Andreas (11:22)

• On Humorous Office Setups:

  "I've worked at several trading flows and they all look like this, right? It's actually a struggle to concentrate and get stuff done in an environment like this."
  — Andreas on trading floor culture (27:25)

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• Market reaction to potential truce [01:59 – 04:12]
• Rare earths: bargaining chip & future risks [04:12 – 06:13]
• Europe & US policy responses [06:13 – 07:53]
• Military implications & supply chain vulnerabilities [07:53 – 09:50]
• Macro environment: inflation, decoupling [14:55 – 17:39]
• Audience Q&A: S&P, Silver, Liquidity [19:09 – 24:29]
• Outlook for coming months & macro/AI/rare earth trades [24:55 – 26:39]
• Humor: trading floor culture and fitness in finance [27:25 – 28:20]

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains a casual yet incisive tone, punctuated by banter, inside jokes about office culture, and sharp, actionable macroeconomic commentary. Both hosts balance technical depth with approachability, consistently emphasizing the need for vigilance—and a sense of humor—in facing market volatility and geopolitical unknowns.

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Key Takeaways for Investors

• A trade truce offers markets temporary relief, but rare earths will be an ongoing strategic battleground; expect further volatility.
• China maintains significant leverage, but Western efforts to decouple and onshore supply chains will be a major theme for years.
• Inflation fears have been overblown—so far. Shipping costs and global supply adjustments are helping.
• Watch for potential Fed liquidity moves as reserve scarcity increases into year-end.
• Silver and select commodity plays remain interesting on global fundamentals, but portfolio position size matters.
• Expect more cyclical and sentiment-driven volatility as we move late into this investment cycle.

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For more actionable ideas and trade recommendations, listen to the Macro Meets Micro show or explore offerings at Real Vision Pro and Steno Research.

Transcript

[A]

Hello out there. Welcome to another edition of Macro Mondays. My name is Milo Rosenhol, your usual host and as usual, I'm joined by Andreas Steno. It's been another very, very eventful impact weekend and we're here to unpack it all for you at Macro Mondays. Remember, this is our weekly free show where we give you a sneak peek into all the analysis and trade recommendations that we post on Real Vision. For the full package, you'll have to go to Real Vision Pro for that. More on that a little bit later. We've got a very packed week ahead of us in Real Vision on Tuesday. Tomorrow at 10am Eastern, Jared Dillian is joins Ash Bennington to preview the Fed meeting on Wednesday. On Wednesday at 7pm Eastern, Jamie Coots gives a live update to the crypto market after the Fed meeting and the expected rate cut there. And then on Thursday, I I'm joined by you, Andreas, for the monthly Macro Meet Micro where we give you a live update on our trading portfolio which is doing very, very well despite a couple of small setbacks today. So lots of interesting stuff to follow. If you are a subscriber at Real Vision, I would do recommend, recommend that if you're only here for the, for the free show that we do every Monday this Mac, remember to post your questions whether you're watching on YouTube, Twitter or whatever and we'll pick them up either live on the show afterwards or in next week's show. So lots of good stuff there. Quite the weekend. Andreas, I just want to ask you, how back are we right now? Are we, are we this back? Andreas, I brought a banana this time. Are we this back?

[B]

I almost felt scared when you reached the desk up there. Well, I, I don't think we're quite there, but you know, it, it's obviously a good day watching the screens right now. Nasdaq is up 350 index points or something like that in, in the first future. Right. So big relief rally on the back of Scott Besson's comments yesterday that we have some sort of trade truce with with China on the cards later this week. We obviously, I still look forward to Trump and Xi actually shaking hands. Is it on Thursday or Friday? I don't think we know the exact timing of it yet. It's obviously in conjunction with this broader meetup in South Korea. The weekend has been full of news from the US Administration on deals with various Asian countries. So in essence, it seems like we've bought ourselves some very, very valuable time on this whole question on, on trade, not least related to Rare earths. Because that's obviously been center of attention whether these rare earth magnets would be. Yeah. Would be exempt from. From the current turmoil or not. And it seems like they have some sort of framework in place where they at least kick the can down the road on this whole issue.

[A]

We'll get back to that a little bit, Andreas. Lots of stuff to unpack there. I can't help but notice. Andreas, is that an exercise bike behind you? I don'. You usually have that, do you?

[B]

No, no, but. Well, we're trying to send the right message to our audience here, Mikkel. Don't expect me to use it a lot, but it's here for the show, right?

[A]

I don't know if this is the target, Andreas, but I just want. I don't know. Do you know the queen of crypto Onyx? I just want to post this picture as one of the hot takes of the week. And just if you agree here that the bottom is in. I don't know if that's the target body that you're going for with the bike. But anyway, just to sum up this, we're not going to talk too much crypto, but do you think the bottom is in. Was this it for the China trade care?

[B]

Yes, at least for now. We'll obviously return to this topic probably on an ongoing basis. I have a couple of main takeaways from what we've seen during these trade talks over the weekend. First of all, I think it's evident that we. And when I say we, I mean the west and the Asian democracies are starting to pay a pretty large price to keep the flow of these rare earth magnets intact. So we have to provide China with sizable concessions every time to convince them not to curb these exports. For now, we haven't seen actual export curbs. We've obviously seen attempts to threaten the rest of the world with these export curbs, but they're not curbed as per now. But obviously every time we see these trade talks, every time there is a round of trade talks, they bring up this topic again. Back in May, they agreed on a trade rules also related to rare earths. Already during June we saw issues and now three, four months later, we have to strike a new deal, so to speak, with China on these exact rare earth magnets. So I'm not sure we are out of the wits on this question. I think we need to scramble to secure our own supply chains in the West. A couple of the very, very popular names within this rare earth space, they've taken A beating from the get go of the trading session here. I consider that natural given that the can is kicked down the road. But I don't think this was it for this rare earth cycle, to be honest. Because, I mean, let me ask you as well mik around this topic because it seems like they hold the upper hand to some extent in these trade negotiations because we need these rare earth magnets as everything from the fighter jets to the missiles to semiconductors, et cetera. Right. So we're stuck in a, in a peculiar situation in the west on this topic.

[A]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean that's the setup right now. We're not going to be able to change that within the next 12 months. On the other hand, China knows that they have a certain window to leverage this upper hand and I think that is what they're trying to do. We're still to fully understand what they're getting in return for this, aside from a cooldown on tariffs, maybe. But it's very, very clear that China knows that they've built this upper hand, this advantage and they're going to play it over the coming so what's going to happen over the next 12 months? We can't solve this. We can begin to solve it and that's a very, very strong trade thematic. The geopolitical chessboard might change entirely over the next 12 months. So that's hard to bet on. But it's not hard to bet on that this advantage will still be China's in 12 months time, but that the west will do its utmost to begin fixing this. We have already done some the European Union passed the Rare Earth Minerals Act. Trump is moving very, very aggressively using federal funding to solve this problem. I think the EU is going to go even more aggressively in that direction and that's sort of the trade takeaway for me here, Andreas, because the geopolitical chessboard tariffs, we don't know whether that stands in 12 months. We might have new conflicts, we might have a peace in Ukraine. So the US China dynamic could be different 12 months from now, but the rare earth dynamic is going to be mostly the same. So, so that's still the window we have for investments that's certain and that's, that's a very, very significant playing field.

[B]

One thing I'd like to know more about, and we obviously don't know the details as of now, is whether China intends to keep this global military ban on rare earth magnets intact. We haven't really seen any details from Scott Besant on that because that would obviously be a Very, very interesting takeaway. Also, from a geopolitical perspective, if they're not willing to provide the magnets for the F35s. To take one example, right, those are some Marion based. You simply need China in that supply chain. You also need China in the supply chain for various long ranging missiles. Right. So is this the actual reason why Trump is holding back on the Tomahawks to Ukraine? Is it out of fear that the US is simply running out of ammunition, so to speak?

[A]

That's part of it. He is getting that feedback from within the military system. Still, I think in a, in the very long term strategic view, China can only play this card so many times because the more they play it, the more it appears to the west that we have to do something about this and there are solutions. They're going to take a very, very long time to implement. It's going to be very, very expensive to implement. It's going to take a lot of government money. I don't think there is a pure market solution to this, but there are solutions to this. There are ways to fix this problem in the west and I has delivered the wake up call for us on this. So that's, that's, that's absolutely the angle. It, it, it, it seems to me, Andreas, that, that this is another one of the cases where the market was waiting. We, we, we had this meme of I just want to bring it on here. It's hilarious of, of Trump being the resistance and, and being the support. Perhaps this should be Scott Besant being the support because it seems like whenever, whenever shit hits the fan, you send in Scott Bessant and markets are calmed where just as long as he says we have a solution, people trust, okay then it's probably a decent solution whatever he comes up with, even if we don't know quite what it is.

[B]

Migo, I saw, I saw another Twitter account posting a picture from the negotiations yesterday and to be honest, it looked very much like a guy called Tom Lee. If you know that guy, you know, Ethereum Bull, it looked like he was present there. Of course it wasn't him but, and as soon as that appeared, everyone started buying crypto yesterday. Never. You know, to be honest, having traded these markets for a while, I, I, I think it's been, I can't recall a year where political standoffs have had such an importance for, for markets back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. It is, it is slightly tiring to be honest. And yeah, we're going back and forth between these sentiment, mood changes. On an ongoing basis still.

[A]

It is sort of, I don't know quite the right expression for this, but it is, it is something that wanes itself out because a few cycles back, a decade back, a US government shutdown would have been a huge market crisis. We're not even talking about, doesn't even matter almost to markets, the tariffs, discussions, people are getting sick of it. There's still some power in the US and China breaking off trade because it's essentially the entire world trade system we're talking about that still holds a little bit of oomph to it, but I think over time we will get used to these cycles and we have to get used to the fact that the US and China are decoupling to some extent.

[B]

Yeah. Mig, maybe we can show the chart on the imports to the US and these critical materials and so on, because I think that's actually a key takeaway from this weekend. No matter what, whether we get a trade deal or not. I think we've crossed Rubicon, to use, you know, a cliche within geopolitics. Right. We, we're past the point where the west can just lean back and accept to be this reliant on China in such an important supply chain. They've shown their hand, they've shown their willingness to use this against the West. They used this against Japan back in 2010 after a territorial dispute, but they've never used it to this extent versus the US versus the Eurozone. And we obviously have to act, there's no doubt about that. And as you can see, even despite imports going down on a running basis between China and the us, we're also seeing the proportion of that in critical materials going down even more. So, I mean, we are decoupling also in the rarer space. We've also seen Trump scrambling for deals with Australia, with Kazakhstan, etc, to try and avoid China and the supply chain to the extent that you can.

[A]

Absolutely, Andreas. And we see this in all spaces. I also have a chart. I didn't bring it on investments that are decoupling from the US and China. So this is a megatrend. It's going to take a couple of decades. We're not at Cold War levels. The US and China are still going to be trading very much. The, the EU is still going to be buying lots of, lots of stuff from China, but China's role is changing as well. They're moving up in the, in the value chain as well. So, so that they also have some windows to play these cards as, as at some point China's not going to be refining the stuff either because they don't have the manpower for it. Perhaps. So, yeah, very, very interesting. Very, very bullish for markets, obviously that you had some sort of inkling of a, of a deal. I think Andreas, on the Ukraine topic, slightly more in the Gaza topic. We've had a lot of back and forth, a lot of 180s. I think the Trump administration is, and Trump in particular is a little bit more careful when it comes to China. So I'm not too fearful of. Because that theory has been out there that things could break down once Trump and Xi meets. I don't think so. First of all, I don't think they communicate very much one on one and I think Trump is very, very careful here because he knows that this can really, really shake markets. It really, really shakes stuff. So I'm not too fearful ahead of these talks later this week. I think usually when she gets involved everything is settled and everything is done. So I think that should, should more or less be a formality and that we have some, some kind of deal and some easing on markets which is obviously positive interest. So maybe, maybe let's look a little bit further ahead or maybe let's, let's just go back to some good old macro and dress. We had the CPI print on Friday just to talk about something a little bit more down to earth maybe, and I just want to ask you two things here. First of all, we've come to the point where energy can't really keep down the year on year levels anymore because it was already low levels a year ago. But still, where is the inflation? Is it in the room with us?

[B]

I guess to some extent. Right. But it's clearly not in the room with us to the extent that was expected by every single investment bank. As I've said before, all of the big investment banks have had close to a perfect 0% hit ratio this year. They've highlighted the risk to growth from tariffs over and over and they've highlighted the risk to inflation spiraling upwards due to tariffs over and over and we're not really seeing either. When you look at the details from this inflation report, it's actually a very benign report. Outside of energy costs, we've obviously seen how electricity costs have gone up in the US not to the same extent as elsewhere, but we're currently trending towards high electricity price levels. We're trending towards higher gasoline price levels now in my opinion as well, now that we see oil prices at least starting to sort of accommodate the news that we've seen over the past couple of weeks and they're starting to trend upwards to some extent. So I guess overall, no, inflation is not in the room with us, at least not relative to the expectations that were brought forward by all of this, both central banks and investment banks earlier this year. We're trending ish between 2 and a half and 3% on a trend basis. That's not a catastrophe. It's obviously not target, but it's not a catastrophe. And it's far, far from the worst case scenarios that were painted by others.

[A]

No. Another part of this, Andreas, is the freight race. We talked a lot about this a year ago when we had the Red Sea crisis. We technically still have that going on.

[B]

But.

[A]

Just like with the government shutdown, people get used to this and all the shipping giants are getting used to this, but they're seeing rates dropping through the floor. We obviously had a huge spike earlier this year, two major spikes, among other things related to front loading of tariffs. But we are seeing very, very benign freight rates, which obviously also aids the CPI picture on all transportation from Shanghai to Europe or North America. So this is obviously also testament to the beginning slowly building decoupling of these economies. Also a matter obviously of supply. I've heard that from a couple of experts in the business here in Denmark. There's a matter of big containerships coming in there. But this is obviously also aiding inflation down.

[B]

Sure. And this is the kind of backdrop we're seeing ahead of the FOMC meeting now. Right?

[A]

That's it. Yeah.

[B]

Inflation is not anywhere near what people feared, despite tariffs. I still think that we have some tariffs effects left for 2026, but it's pretty clear that they're being massaged into the consumer prices very slowly but surely. It's also very clear that we do not see rising import prices, which is very important here in this equation. Japanese car manufacturers, for example, they've lowered the prices for the US domestic market while they've hike prices for the rest of the world, which is the exact opposite effect of what everyone projected except more or less us. So I'm still very happy with what we've set on inflation since April. We've continuously said that you shouldn't expect inflation to show up in the size that everyone highlighted. And we've continuously said that the rest of the world will also fuel a part of this tariffs impact. Since it will be distributed across the global supply chain. It will not just be one big fat bill for the American consumer, it will be distributed and that's why I've said over and over a tariff is the only tax where you can actually feasibly claim that a part of the bill is paid by foreigners. And I stress a part of the bill because there is obviously a bill.

[A]

For everyone and even if it's only 15, 20%, I think most reports are showing that's still something from a tax revenue. A large part of it is is swallowed by the by the importer as well. We know that. I want to jump to a couple of audience questions, Andreas here. Let's start with Gabriel from the Real Vision platform. Hello gentlemen. Are you expecting further corrections on the S and P due to the new orders coming lower from for October and perhaps a lower ISM print for November? Or do you think this correction is likely over?

[B]

Well, I think we're basically past the worst on this China story. I understand why you highlight that October probably wasn't the best growth month for this year. When you look at the container volumes from from China to the US we've obviously seen almost a Liberation Day 2.0 impact on on container volumes, which will impact growth both in China and the US through the month of October. The good thing is that once we get those growth numbers for October, we know that the problem is mostly solved, right? So I don't think you should care too much about a small setback on on for example PMIs as a consequence of this because, well, sure it could be a hiccup for the PMI picture, but the overall trend still looks benign, especially if you look at the PMIs that are most relevant, the S P ones. So I get why you'll ask this question around the growth momentum in October because it doesn't look overly pretty due to the container volumes dropping. But I don't think it's a biggie if we know that the problem is already solved or at least kicked down the road.

[A]

Okay, there's a bit of a harpoon here. I should have prepared you for this, but it just came in via YouTube so it's completely fair if you want to push this for one of our shows later this week. But from Rinia here, how does silver look until the end of the year?

[B]

I think silver is a decent story still. You know, it's obviously connected to a weak dollar that we've seen this year. It's connected to a manufacturing up uptick, it's connected to the gold rush among the global south and it's connected to the solar case which is starting to gain traction. So you have almost a handful of decent explanations why silver is going up. Silver looks incredibly bullish technically still, at least if you zoom out a little bit. But it's one of those assets where you basically have decades between such rallies and a lot of the silver bullshit that are currently, you know, celebrating. They've highlighted the possibility of the silver rally forever. So I don't have anything against silver. We also hold exposure to precious metals in our portfolio and I think it is a relevant theme, especially given the ongoing decoupling between US and and Global south peers. We've obviously seen China rerouting exports to all sorts of Global south peers, and as a consequence of that, we're also seeing flows being rerouted into gold and silver from an official institutional perspective in many of these Global south countries. So all in all, what I'm trying to say here, I get why silver is accelerating and I don't necessarily think the trend is over, but I don't think it's the biggest position you need to hold in your portfolio.

[A]

An interesting question here from Dan. Dan Topp from the Real Vision platform. What are the key variables that could unlock more liquidity?

[B]

Well, we get some early clues already this week from the Federal Reserve because for those of you who've followed my research over the past month, we've seen more and more signs of a reserve scarcity basically. So the amount of dollars available for commercial banks and their net position with the Federal Reserve is very tight. And that's basically been the missing link in the liquidity equation so far this year. We've had liquidity creation from the U.S. treasury, we've had liquidity creation from commercial banks, but we haven't had liquidity creation from the Federal Reserve. They've kind of allowed the rest of the system to deal with that, but now they need to add liquidity if they want to control short term money market rates. It's not overly urgent, but they have to deal with it before New Year's in my opinion. And in that sense we'll get some early clues already this week on whether they'll end QT by now, whether they'll just give us a forward date. My best guess is that they'll give us some forward date next year, meaning that from that point onwards they'll probably start buying Treasuries to at least match the growth of the economy, which is what we've seen bank of Canada doing was it a couple of quarters ago. So we're starting to see the first signs of actual central bank liquidity creation on top of the liquidity creation stemming from the Private credit creation that we've seen from commercial banks. So that's where we need to look for the next liquidity wave, so to speak.

[A]

Great stuff. Okay, Andreas, I just wanted to do a little quick preview of the macro meets micro show this Thursday. What can people expect? I mean, the portfolio has been doing incredibly well so far this year. As anyone else, we had a few hiccups here in October, but actually came out relatively okay, I think. So what can you expect? New trades, new trends going forward in broad terms.

[B]

So we're going to spend some time on digesting the rare earth trade, the quantum trade, the AI trade, and some of those very popular topics. From a macro perspective, we're, we're basically calculating top down. Does, you know, do current valuations make sense given the business case? Is there a case for rare earths to be mined in the west and processed in the west? What's needed for it to be a good business case, and so on and so forth. So what we look into is, you know, all of the relevant and important certain thematic traits that we've seen all year, how we position for them, and then we assess them from a macro perspective, top down, to provide you with the best possible guidance for your portfolio when you're taking investment decisions amidst this volatility. Because even though I agree that we've, you know, managed to get through Tober in a decent way despite pretty sizable volatility, I think we're entering the stage, where I've said this before, where we're going to see maniac markets. I mean, we're going to shift from oh, this is, you know, this is the new thematic to oh, it's so over to oh, this is the new thematic. Back and forth, back and forth, time and time again, the next nine to 12 months. Because by all measures, we are relatively late in the investment cycle. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're, you know, within the peak for the foreseeable future. But, but, you know, some of the trends that we're observing, they typically, they're typically observed within the last year of the bull market. And, and I think that's still, you know, a likely base case that will peak somewhere in 2026. Meaning that you need to be on top of these things to a much larger extent than you need to early in the bull market.

[A]

Yeah, you need to try and have your find the numbers and the indicators that you trust of where you are in the cycle. And that's what we're trying to do also on quantum and AI, especially if we are still accelerating. If we're hitting, hitting peaks, et cetera, where we're trying to work our way towards that, we'll expand on that on Thursday. Okay. Finally, Andres, I couldn't help myself but bring this post. It went viral last week. Michael Dell of the Dell Corporation congratulating JP Morgan on their new headquarters. You've actually worked in a place like this. I mean the Danish Ministry of Finance. Let me tell you this, that's a 300 year old building. It's nothing like this. This, to me this screams low returns. I mean, I don't know how you feel about seeing this address. Waking up any good memories?

[B]

Well, actually to some extent good memories, yes. I've worked at several trading flows and they all look like this, right? It's actually a struggle to concentrate and get stuff done in an environment like this. I had a few stints in trading, but I mostly spent my time within the research and portfolio management teams and ultimately ended up adding research teams and writing a 10 page PDF in a setting like this is incredibly difficult because people are talking to each other back and forth across the screens. Right. And it's rarely a quiet place. You have a lot of, you know, a lot of characters. Let me put it like that on a trading floor like this. And yes, I think you're right to some extent that you don't need this kind of setup to make returns.

[A]

I've.

[B]

I've never made better returns than, you know, in this setting.

[A]

The exercise bike. Yeah, maybe that's why perhaps that could be the new one. Graced off and dress. Okay guys, that's, that's all we have for you this week. Thanks a lot for, for all your questions across X YouTube, real vision, wherever you're joining us. We are posting this as a podcast as well. I'm trying to be as punctual in getting it out there as well, but you can watch it on all these platforms. Remember to sign up for Real Vision Pro where you get full access including our macro meets micro show this week where you get to the actual trade recommendations which stocks we see performing in this environment and within these thematics that we're talking about. Thanks to you Andres for joining. Thanks to everyone everyone for, for watching in. We'll be back next week.