Macro Mondays Podcast Summary

Episode: Trump Inauguration Preview – And everything NOT Trump
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen (B), with co-host Mikkel Roosevelt (A)
Date: January 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Macro Mondays is set a few hours before the 2025 US presidential inauguration of Donald Trump. Hosts Andreas and Mikkel deliver a lively, nuanced discussion not only previewing Trump’s return, but intentionally branching out into broader macro and geopolitical themes—from the explosive Trump-crypto news and its implications, to signs of thaw between the US and China, the evolving Middle East dynamic, and key global market trends. True to form, the conversation oscillates between the irreverent and the deeply analytical, with actionable ideas and strong, independent opinions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump, Crypto, and the Sudden Rise of Meme Coins

• The Trump administration’s emerging crypto policy is unexpectedly dominated by meme coin launches (notably “Trump Coin”, “Melania Coin”) following a high-profile meeting between Eric Trump and Michael Saylor.
• Andreas’ perspective: The initial expectation was utility-focused projects, not meme coins; the situation is volatile and rife with uncertainty.

  "A lot of pundits expected the Trump administration to be more about utility projects rather than meme coins. And here we are with the Melania coin trading. My best guess is that we’ll get a Baron coin today." – Andreas, [02:13]

• There are high stakes: Trump now has significant (on paper) wealth vested in the Solana ecosystem; a meltdown could impact both Trump and Solana.

  "Solana is now linked to Trump for good and for bad. If this Trump coin melts down, it’s a problem for Solana as well." – Andreas, [05:32]

• OG crypto crowd frustrated by centralization; irony noted as "decentralized finance" now tied to a major political leader.

  "You’ve talked about decentralized finance for decades. It doesn’t get more centralized than this.” – Mikkel, [06:26]

2. Geopolitics: TikTok, US-China Relations, and Possible Thaw

• News of a “deal” on TikTok could indicate a Trump administration more open to dialogue with China than previously feared.

  “Perhaps this whole TikTok debacle… might actually be some sort of Trojan horse or a way to open negotiations and talks with China from a tech standpoint.” – Mikkel, [07:15]

• Both hosts suggest pragmatic interests trump ideology: if it benefits Trump, he may adopt a more conciliatory stance.

  “It seems like Donald Trump [is] intent on feathering his own nest… if that’s the case, he’ll pick a much less aggressive stance towards China as well." – Andreas, [08:44]

• On Ukraine: China and the US may share an interest in a negotiated “middle ground,” signaling possible room for diplomacy.

3. Inauguration Speech Insights and Odds

• Crypto coverage expected—even predicted as a defining moment for the sector.

  “You know, I think it will be crypto focused. It’s crazy to say, but… it will probably be a part of that speech. This is the defining moment for crypto." – Andreas, [11:13]

• The speech will likely avoid specifics or overpromises, focus on a “golden age,” and project urgency for immediate results (lower rates, economic “peak”).

  "Trump is viewing the next four years as a peak period… not necessarily planning policy to work in 10 or 20 years' time." – Mikkel, [12:10]

• Polymarket odds on US Treasury Bitcoin purchases (within 100 days): 50%. Tariffs on China seem likely soon; nothing expected on Europe/UK immediately, but risk may be underpriced.

  "That is the most underpriced risk out there: they do something on the UK, in my opinion." – Andreas, [14:59]

4. Greenland, Defense, and Trade: The Next Hot Potato?

• Trump’s revived pitch to “buy Greenland” is spotlighted (again tied to US military priorities rather than only politics).
• Discussion of Greenland mining stocks and the legal/physical challenges faced.

  "The locals refuse to mine uranium… it’s cold as fuck… no railway… and locals don’t want you to mine." – Mikkel, [18:34]

• Realpolitik: Greenland’s bid for independence has likely backfired as geopolitics squeeze options between the US, Denmark, and China.

5. Middle East, Oil, and Market Regimes

Oil & Middle East

• Recent oil breakout attributed to geopolitical premium following Gaza and wider tensions.
• Likelihood of a Middle East deal—and therefore a fading risk premium—growing, leading Andreas to go short oil.

  "The geopolitical risk premium is fading… with oil prices $10 higher, OPEC can start producing more." – Andreas, [19:25]

• Israeli domestic politics (Netanyahu’s standing) critical in ceasefire talks and future market reactions.

Macro Regimes: US, China, Europe

• US: “Up, up, up” regime—growth, inflation, liquidity all strong, echoing 2021 (bullish for cyclicals, not just NASDAQ/tech).

  "Up, up, up: liquidity up, growth up, inflation up. I’m in camp 2021… it’s pretty bullish." – Andreas, [23:15]

• China: Inflation and growth picking up from low base, with notable recovery in iron ore, copper, Chinese equities. Political risks persist, but technicals positive.
• Europe: Inflation and growth picking up—surprisingly even for the “turtle” Eurozone. Red Sea crisis remains an inflation wildcard.

6. Technicals & Trade Ideas

• Bitcoin: If inauguration triggers a strong Bitcoin reserve signal, 130k is in sight (“thin air above”).

  "If we break the current Fibonacci level… we’re going to 130K. It could be a very fast move." – Andreas, [27:03]

• Solana: Outperformed during meme coin hype, technicals strong, but volatility high.
• China/Hang Seng: Attractive for commodities and equity proxies—contingent on no new China tariffs.

  "No news is very good here, very, very good [for China]." – Andreas, [29:21]

• Europe (DAX, CAC): Recent outperformance vs. US, but consider shifting risk elsewhere as US cyclicals and China look more compelling.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Trump Coin Phenomenon:

  “Trump now has billions of vested interests in the Solana space—it’s just an amazing development, and I’ve got mixed feelings about it.”
  – Andreas, [03:38]

• Crypto’s Fate Tied to Trump:

  “This is the defining moment for crypto in many ways, for good and for bad.”
  – Andreas, [11:20]

• Geopolitics Over Ideology:

  “It seems like Donald Trump intends on feathering his own nest.”
  – Andreas, [08:44]

• On Greenland’s Troubles:

  “One, it’s cold as fuck. Two, you’ve got no railway. Three, you’ve got no local workforce and four, the locals don’t want you to mine.”
  – Mikkel, [18:34]

• The Macro Regime Outlook:

  “Up, up, up: liquidity up, growth up, inflation up. That’s the short answer... In an up, up, up regime, I’d actually prefer materials, industrials, energy, stuff linked to the fiscal production cycle, alongside crypto.”
  – Andreas, [23:15]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump Coin, Meme Coin Frenzy: [01:29] – [06:26]
• TikTok and US-China Thaw: [06:47] – [09:27]
• Ukraine Analysis: [09:37] – [10:54]
• Inauguration Speech Odds & Crypto Focus: [10:54] – [12:10]
• Polymarket Odds – Tariffs, Bitcoin Reserve: [13:05] – [15:43]
• Greenland, Mining, and Geopolitics: [15:53] – [18:34]
• Middle East, Oil, and Potential Ceasefire: [19:25] – [22:23]
• US, China, and Europe Macro Regimes: [23:03] – [26:29]
• Red Sea, Supply Chains, European Inflation: [26:29] – [27:03]
• Technical Setups: BTC, Solana, Equities: [27:03] – [30:27]

Closing Thoughts

This episode blends humor, sharp macro analysis, and speculative trade ideas. The hosts’ independence comes through in their willingness to question conventional wisdom—whether criticizing meme coin hype or pushing past Trump-centric narratives to track underlying economic and geopolitical signals.

For those short on time:

• Expect a Trump era defined by crypto, with unintended consequences for markets and policy.
• Signs point to less ideological, more transactional geopolitics—especially vis-à-vis China, TikTok, and the Ukraine war.
• Macro regimes remain bullish but are nuanced: US and China lead, Europe surprises; keep an eye on shifting sector leadership.
• Key risks lurk in UK/US trade, commodity supply chains, and the persistence of meme-driven speculation.

Catch the next episode for deeper dives on crypto, fixed income, and the real impact of inauguration headlines!