Macro Mondays

Episode: Weak U.S. Jobs, Europe in Crisis, & the Oil Setup
Host: Andreas Steno Larsen (A) with Mika Rosenwald (B)
Date: September 8, 2025

Overview: Main Theme and Purpose

This episode navigates three major macroeconomic topics:

• Current signals from the U.S. labor market (especially after a notably weak jobs number)
• The intensifying political and fiscal crisis in Europe (with a focus on France)
• The evolving supply and positioning outlook for oil markets

The hosts aim to provide pragmatic, actionable perspectives—always with the caveat that their trade ideas are “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit.” The discussion integrates both topical headlines and deeper structural insights, including shifts in labor migration, automation, and capex.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. U.S. Labor Market: Is Weak Jobs Data Cause for Alarm?

Timestamps: [01:25] – [17:00]

• Jobs Report Breakdown:

  • Only ~20k jobs added in the last NFP report
  • Federal government layoffs continue; manufacturing weakness persists (5+ months)
  • Unemployment rate edging up, but context is needed
  • “Given that you don't have that influx of cheap labor coming from the south of the US anymore. So we've seen a tectonic shift in the labor market and no one's really on top of what that means yet.” — Andreas [03:52]

• Migration & Double-Counting Effects:

  • Outflow of migrant workers who typically hold multiple jobs leads to statistical distortions in NFP
  • Lower migration means lower job creation needed to keep unemployment steady
  • “Even though a job report of say 25–50k looks abysmal, it’s probably sufficient, more or less. Right. … The U.S. economy is no longer optimally looked through what I call a nominal lens.” — Andreas [03:35]

• Re-assessing Weakness:

  • Nominally, tax receipts suggest overall income is stable or growing
  • Labor market now characterized as “low hiring, low firing”
  • “Part of that tick up in unemployment is probably natural here. … I still don’t think we’re in crisis mode.” — Andreas [11:09]
  • “It's just not as bad as it looks here.” — Andreas [11:55]

• Policy & Rate Cuts:

  • Rising chatter of potential 50bp Fed rate cut in September
  • “I even think there is a bit of leeway here for it to be a decently hot [CPI] report and they still deliver cuts, obviously. So yeah, let’s call it a 50/50.” — Andreas [12:56]
  • Farmers struggle to fill jobs after deportations; automation could surge as a solution:
    • “To me, this is a cocktail that screams CAPEX boom. But we’re yet to see it outside of the data centers and AI.” — Andreas [15:50]

2. The Automation & Capex Boom Thesis

Timestamps: [15:44] – [19:27]

• Robotics & Labor Shortages:

  • Severe immediate labor shortages in agriculture as migrants are deported
  • “It's a here and now problem for people. … The robots may come in five to ten years. There’s a huge potential if you have a robot capable of picking cherries or berries.” — Mika [16:31]
  • Discussed the lag between surging demand for automation and market-ready products

• Remote-Controlled Labor as a Bridge:

  • Andreas proposes a future where robotics are managed remotely, maintaining 'cheap labor' virtually:
    • “It's not out of the world to think about an optimus robot walking around one of those berry farms, but controlled via joystick in India. That could very well end up being the compromise here.” — Andreas [18:41]

• Historical Parallel—McKinley Tariff and Capex:

  • Last major tariff regime produced a ~20% of GDP capex boom
  • “There is really a potential for a capex boom here. The question is just whether it … will we see a short term light crisis in the labor market before we get to that boom.” — Andreas [19:27]

3. Oil Markets: Contrarian Setup?

Timestamps: [05:00] – [08:23]

• OPEC & Positioning:

  • OPEC’s latest hike was well-telegraphed; little spare production capacity left
  • “The stars are aligning now for a pretty decent contrarian setup here… everyone’s involved on the short side in the trade and we’re getting to the point where even a production hike is not able to push down the price.” — Andreas [07:22]

• Market Sentiment:

  • Positioning in energy, especially among hedge funds, is extremely negative
  • Mika echoes Andreas: Governments may see this as a level to refill strategic stockpiles, supporting the downside
  • Both hosts see a higher probability of an oil price rebound from current depressed levels

4. Taking Listener Questions: Is a Big Crash Coming?

Timestamps: [20:24] – [24:10]

• Macro “doom” is omnipresent on X/social media; fears of imminent crash due to the labor market
• Andreas is skeptical:
  • Labor market shifts (migration, AI) may invalidate old recession signals
  • “The technology sector is adding plus 1% of GDP a year right now … and they’re not hiring, which is out of this world, that disconnect.” — Andreas [21:42]
  • Tariffs “are not particularly big tax hike” in the context of overall fiscal policy; no major macro crisis detected
  • “We talk about tariffs all the time, and I don’t get the fuss anymore … It’s a tax… but it’s not big in the context of taxes. Overall.” — Andreas [23:38]

5. Europe in Crisis: France, UK, and Japan

Timestamps: [24:10] – [28:08]

• France:

  • Massive demonstration expected, “block everything”; government (Prime Minister, not Macron) on verge of collapse
  • Three major parties, no coalition willingness; deep fiscal and demographic challenges (debt >100% GDP; 5–6% deficit)
  • Unlikely that right-wing government will take over soon—gridlock to persist

• Comparative Politics:

  • U.S. system, for all its issues (“big, beautiful bills” passed with debate), is more capable of action than Europe
  • “You can disagree with the action, but a big, beautiful bill was put forward to Congress which was passed through relatively easily… the US currently has a political system that for all its flaws is actually delivering reform. And that's very, very positive for markets.” — Mika [26:22]
  • Japan’s fiscal push viewed more positively; UK heading into potential stagnation, but immediate government collapse unlikely

6. Positioning and Year-End Outlook

Timestamps: [28:46] – [30:25]

• Markets endured the “worst seasonal part of the year”;

• “Nothing has really happened. I mean, we’ve moved sideways. … I think we’ll get through September in a pretty light manner and then […] it’s shaping up to be in a rally into year end.” — Andreas [28:46]

• Further Reading:

  • Andreas has a new editorial comparing the current tariff regime to McKinley’s in the 1890s; early conclusion: not necessarily negative for growth or risk assets

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Remember that these trade ideas and all our recommendations might be sometimes may be good, sometimes maybe shit.” — Mika [01:38]
• “The US economy is no longer optimally looked through what I call a nominal lens. You need to look at it per capita simply since the labor force is changing.” — Andreas [04:04]
• “Even with a very, very hot inflation report this week, they’ll still cut. Pretty sure about that, which sounds detrimental to many, but I think they’ll look through it.” — Andreas [12:32]
• Mika on automation: “It's a here and now problem for people. I mean people are getting kicked out now and the robots may come in five to 10 years. So there is sort of an interim period that's going to be very realistic.” [16:31]
• “The positioning is so negative [in oil] … and it remains the case that a lot of people have reluctantly bought into this rebound since Liberation Day.” — Andreas [21:08]
• “You can agree and disagree with the morals of it, but money matters here and that's why a system that can take action is, is, you know, much better equipped to deal with a lot of economic challenges than a system that cannot take action.” — Andreas [26:51]

Episode Timeline

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|-----------------------------------------------| | 00:07 | Show introduction and topics preview | | 01:25 | Deep dive into weak U.S. jobs report | | 03:35 | Contextualizing migration’s labor market impact | | 05:00 | Oil market analysis and trade setup | | 08:50 | Layperson explanation: Why weak jobs ≠ disaster | | 12:56 | Policy talk: Probability of Fed rate cut | | 15:44 | Automation, robotics, and capex thesis | | 19:27 | Historical tariff/capex parallels | | 20:24 | Listener Q&A: Fears of major crash | | 24:10 | European political crisis: France/UK/Japan | | 28:46 | Final thoughts: Market positioning and rally odds | | 29:50 | Preview: Andreas’ new editorial/outro |

Closing

Tone: The discussion is frank, practical, and often tongue-in-cheek, true to the show’s trademark candor and skepticism toward macro orthodoxy.

Takeaways:

• U.S. labor data looks weak at headline, but migration/capex/AI variables demand new frameworks
• Structural European political paralysis is a looming risk, but U.S. remains relatively “investable”
• Oil poised for a rebound off extreme bearishness
• 2025 likely to see both disruption and significant opportunity for those watching structural shifts

For deeper dives: Catch Andreas' editorial this week on historical tariff parallels at Real Vision ([29:50]) and stay tuned for their State of the Union episode Wednesday.