Macro Mondays | April 6, 2026

Episode: "Why Markets Are Resilient"

Overview

This episode, hosted by Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold, takes a timely look at the resilience of global markets amid escalating geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East, and ongoing energy disruptions. Broadcasting from Crete, with Andreas on “boots on the ground” monitoring, the discussion provides contrarian takes on the oil supply crisis, U.S.-Europe relations, and the current cycle’s macro and market impact. The conversation is equal parts actionable and candid, with a trademark blend of sharp analysis and offbeat humor.

Key Discussion Points

1. Setting the Scene: Broadcasting from Crete

• Location and Mood: Andreas reports from a new base in Crete, humorously noting he’s monitoring an American military base nearby, very much “for work, not holidays.” (01:34)
• Connectivity: Typical southern European Wi-Fi issues underline the “on-ground” nature of his reporting.
• Tone: The hosts keep things light, joking about Danish politicians' love for Bruce Springsteen and the Italian World Cup exclusion. (05:35)

2. Geopolitics & 'Power Plant Day' (Trump’s Deadline)

• Escalation in the Gulf: Discussion focuses on Donald Trump’s provocative “Power Plant Day/Bridge Day” deadline and the real risk of military escalation if no ceasefire is reached. (07:04)
  • “Donald Trump is losing patience with negotiations... maximize the leverage.” (07:06, Host C)
• U.S. Buildup and Messaging:
  • US military build-up continues, but hosts question if all this really matters for markets.
  • “Does this even matter for markets?” (07:59, Host C)

3. Oil Markets: Contrarian Viewpoint

• Bilateral Oil Deals: The Iran-Iraq oil deal is highlighted as a key development, with Andreas arguing it's more significant and constructive than consensus assumes. (08:03)

  • “It’s the most contrarian take written on oil at all this year… my inbox has been absolutely on fire since I released this one.” (08:44, Andreas)
  • Two-thirds of pre-war oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have already been rerouted or replaced.
  • The Iran-Iraq deal covers up to 3.5 million barrels/day.

• Creative Solutions: High prices spur innovation; deals and alternative routes are emerging daily.

  • “When you have oil prices above $100 for four to five weeks, people begin to get really, really, really creative. And that’s what we’re seeing.” (12:32, Host C)

• Improvement in Shipping Data: More ships—though still well below normal—signal incremental recovery.

  • “Maybe the rate of change is what matters… sometimes that’s what matters for stock markets.” (13:55, Host C)

• Analogy to COVID Market Bottom: Andreas draws a parallel to spring 2020—momentum and improving outlook matter more than temporary disruption. (14:28)

  • “As soon as you see sequential progress, the market starts to look at a medium term horizon… we can look through a month or two of disruptions.” (15:09, Andreas)

4. Media Narratives and “Artificial Stupidity”

• Critique of Pundit Doom-Mongering:
  • Many analysts (like during COVID) are entrenched in apocalyptic narratives and struggle to pivot even as conditions improve. (14:28)
  • Fauci Syndrome: “They’ve invested themselves more or less in this narrative that we’ll run out of fuel ... it’s the one that sells the most tickets.” (14:39, Andreas)
• Calling Out AI Misconceptions:
  • LLMs (AI models) have fueled misinformation about commodity shortages.
  • “Artificial intelligence becomes artificial stupidity [in a crisis]...The stuff I’ve seen written on sulfur ... is 100% bullshit.” (17:32, Andreas)

5. Short-Term Risks & Trading Caution

• Rationing and Margins:
  • Acknowledges rationing may occur in some EMs and that energy sovereignty is being tested.
  • “The last barrel of oil is basically the barrel of oil that sets the price... rationing across countries with a weak supply chain.” (20:22, Andreas)
• France’s Energy Diplomacy:
  • France’s “geopolitical humiliation” to secure oil directly from Iran is framed as rational in light of U.S. advice for Europe to secure its own supply. (21:39)
• Market Risk:
  • Despite optimism, the risk of misjudging the timing of a ceasefire or escalation is real.
  • “The worst thing to do in markets is to miss the rallies.” (19:53, Host C)

6. Medium to Long-Term Macro: Who Comes Out Strongest?

• US Business Cycle Resilience:

  • US is “almost an nothingburger” in terms of negative impact—low energy sensitivity, potential for healthy outperformance of US equities.
  • “I actually think this is probably the best thing that could happen to the US equity market on a relative basis to the rest of the world.” (22:22, Andreas)

• Europe and Asia Vulnerabilities:

  • Europe and Asia face bigger growth and inflation headwinds.

• Central Banks:

  • Andreas advocates central banks do nothing: tightening is slow-acting and likely unnecessary. (23:53)
    • “The best thing you can do as a central bank is do nothing during times like this... the weapon of choice... is inefficient in dealing with it.” (24:32, Andreas)
  • Long-term, a post-crisis disinflation wave may prompt rate cuts in 2027.

7. Geopolitical Risk Outlook

• Middle East Uncertainty:

  • A managed, status-quo Iran post-ceasefire may lower rather than raise long-term risk as markets “prefer the known to the unknown.” (25:41)
  • “The risk you’ve always had attached to the Strait of Hormuz has now become material... sometimes that’s more manageable for markets than having a big unknown.” (26:29, Host C)

• China/Taiwan Tail Risk Lowered:

  • Chinese inaction during the Gulf crisis interpreted as de-escalatory, reducing Asia war scenarios.
    • “It has removed some of the left tail risks around Taiwan as well, this whole crisis.” (27:57, Andreas)
    • “China’s never done that. They did exactly that during the Cuban Missile Crisis ... and they chose not to.” (28:46, Host C)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Contrarian Oil View (08:44)

  • “Let the insults begin. And I’ve had so many insults that I’ve stopped counting them.” – Andreas

• On Media Hype & Pundit Incentives (14:28)

  • “It was also the case for Fauci. It was very difficult for him to pivot because he got a lot of airtime out of his Doom 2 port.” – Andreas

• On AI-generated Commodity Narratives (17:32)

  • “Artificial intelligence becomes artificial stupidity...the stuff I’ve seen written on sulfur...is 100% bullshit.” – Andreas

• On Trading Risk (19:53)

  • “The worst thing to do in markets is, is to miss the rallies.” – Host C

• On U.S. Market Strength (22:22)

  • “It’s almost a nothingburger for the US cycle...I think we’ll remain heavily focused on that for the medium term.” – Andreas

• On Central Bank Response (24:32)

  • “The best thing you can do as a central bank is to do nothing during times like this.” – Andreas

• Broad Assessment of Geopolitics (27:57)

  • “It has removed some of the left tail risks around Taiwan as well, this whole crisis. Because we would have seen some tail risks emerging here if it were true.” – Andreas

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:34] – Andreas reports from Crete; mood and setup
• [07:04] – Discussion of “Power Plant Day,” Trump escalation deadline
• [08:03] – Oil rerouting and the Iran-Iraq deal; market implications
• [12:32] – High oil prices drive creative supply solutions
• [14:28] – Comparison to COVID market bottom & Fauci Syndrome
• [17:32] – “Artificial stupidity” – critique of AI-driven market narratives
• [19:53] – Risks of missing the market recovery
• [20:22] – Potential for rationing and European responses
• [22:22] – U.S. resilience and investment strategy
• [23:53] – Central banks’ dilemma and interest rate cycles
• [25:41] – Will long-term geopolitical risk rise or fall?
• [27:57] – China/Taiwan risk perspective post-Gulf crisis
• [29:56] – Closing analogy: Current period reminiscent of 2020 market resilience

Final Thoughts

The episode maintains a skeptical, contrarian tone throughout, challenging both the worst-case pundits and the herd mentality of most market commentary. The key takeaway is that even amid daunting headlines—war risks, energy scarcity, inflation shocks—markets can and do adapt, especially when incentives force creativity and rapid responses. The panel is clear: U.S. risk assets are likely to outperform, Europe and Asia will struggle, and the real opportunity lies in seeing beyond short-term scarcities to the structural and behavioral shifts now underway.

For those seeking a digest of vital macro trends—in real-world language, with wit and practical insight—this Macro Mondays delivers.