Macro Mondays: Year-End Macro Wrap (Dec 22, 2025)

Host: Miko Osman
Guest/Co-Host: Andreas Steno Larsen

Episode Overview

The final Macro Mondays episode of 2025 sees hosts Miko Osman and Andreas Steno Larsen reflect on a transformative year in global macro, markets, and geopolitics. With their signature blend of candor and humor, they dissect the year's biggest events, trades, and trends—offering actionable insights and a transparent review of what went right, what went wrong, and where they're looking for opportunities in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflections on the 2025 Market & Key Events

• The hosts review an eventful year, emphasizing turmoil and opportunities:
  • Trump inauguration and political shifts
  • "Liberation Day" and geopolitical pivots
  • The Iran-Israel war's shockwaves through markets
  • Ongoing China-U.S. tensions ([05:35])
• Andreas: “What you could call a ‘keep it simple, stupid’ rule—I'm a fan of such frameworks because as long as they work, they work.” ([03:57])

2. The Bitcoin Cycle & Price Action

• Revisiting a two-year old Reddit post predicting Bitcoin’s price movements to the exact day—with surprising accuracy.
• Debate over the validity of cyclical patterns in crypto, the influence of “halving cycles,” and whether institutional adoption has shifted market dynamics ([03:57]).
• Andreas: “It may be that after Bitcoin has matured as an asset, it's no longer as firmly tied to this halving dynamic... maybe it's much rather tied to liquidity and the business cycle.”
• Miko: “I think we’re going to go [to new highs] sooner, but yeah, we’ll have to see.” ([05:15])

3. Notable Trades & Portfolio Performance

• Early 2025: “We had a great, great, great trading year up until mid-October, then we saw a drawdown.” ([07:53])
• From “Lambo year” dreams (70% portfolio growth) to a “Mercedes year” (finishing ~30–35% up) ([08:22])
• Andreas: “Maybe I jinxed it... quite literally, I've just bought one [Mercedes]. At least you're not walking, Andreas.” ([08:31])
• Major winners: Rigetti Computing (AI lever—up 250%) ([16:05])
  • “It’s obviously one of those stocks where you’re trading a narrative, because they’re not making any money... It’s kind of worked as an AI levered bet.” ([16:08])
• Major rollercoaster: DroneShield—early investment, but management dumped equity and stock tanked (from +300% to +40% gains) ([16:50])
  • “Both the best and worst trade in the same trade.” ([17:09])

4. Regional Market Disparities & Thematics

• Review of global equity index performance: Korea, Poland, and Spain were unexpected leaders ([09:40])
  • Korea's semiconductor boom, Poland as beneficiary of Ukraine postwar aid, Spain’s bank-heavy index strength
  • U.S. lagged peer markets on the year, but hosts expect a similarly strong pro-cyclical setup in 2026
• “I think the real world assets will do well in 2026... I think it's a good idea to hold banks.” ([11:50])

5. AI Investment Cycle & Automation

• Deep dive into how the AI commoditization cycle continues to drive investment
  • Example: Even small Danish municipalities buying Nvidia racks ([06:29])
  • Discussion of “moving from model to agent” in AI, the rise of companies like UiPath at the crossroads of AI and robotics ([14:28])
  • Space Tech predicted as the next AI lever
• Andreas: “The further we get towards commoditization, the more people will invest. Even a small municipality... is buying Nvidia chips.” ([07:05])

6. Geopolitics & Defense (Drones and Modern Warfare)

• Drones as a transformative trend in military procurement—highlighting a video of Ukraine using fiber-optic drones ([18:02])
• Ongoing “arms race” in drone technology, disruptive impact on modern conflict

7. Listener Q&A & Hot Takes

• Best “vibe” trade: Rigetti (AI narrative), and DroneShield (volatility lesson)

• ISM PMI crossing 50: Miko gives loyal listener Casper some airtime but admits it’s a “puzzle” why U.S. manufacturing doesn’t mirror overseas trends ([19:55])

  • “Anyone but Casper a Merry Christmas—joking aside, it’s been a puzzle...” ([19:55])

• Concerns for 2026:

  • AI trade could turn if “hyperscalers” cut investment—"the first sign... get the **** out of that trade." ([21:37])

  • Worry that 2026 may be late-cycle blowoff before a potential 2027 bust ([22:30])

  • Easing bank regulations could cause both a “melt-up” and worse bust ([24:37])

  • “Pro-cyclical when you ease bank regulation because banks will take more risk... it also means the blow-off top and subsequent bust will be worse.” ([24:37])

• Wildcard: World Cup 2026 picks—Andreas bets on France (and hopes for Brazil), Miko on US or Mexico as surprises ([24:00])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Andreas’ Motto for the Year:
  “We are…sometimes maybe good, sometime maybe shit.” ([02:39])
• On Portfolio Drawdown:
  “This anonymous bastard from Reddit spoiled the party.” ([08:05])
• On Market Volatility for 2026:
  “Maniac markets with big swings back and forth, but mostly up.” ([25:48])
• On ‘Lettuce Hands’:
  “No place for lettuce hands.” —Miko ([26:36])
  “No lettuce hands out there, guys. Don’t fuck this up.” ([26:42])

Timestamps by Segment

| Segment | Start Time | |----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Season wrap, opening banter, macro themes | 00:06 | | The Bitcoin Reddit post & cycle debate | 02:44 | | Market events of 2025 & AI investment cycle | 05:35 | | Portfolio performance, notable trades, Lambo vs Mercedes | 07:53 | | Regional markets, index outperformance | 09:40 | | AI, automation & 2026 thematics (UiPath, space tech, drones) | 13:50–19:55 | | Listener mailbag (ISM PMI, 2026 fears, World Cup picks) | 19:55–24:11 | | Final words: new bank regulations, risk for 2026, “bun & leave” market| 24:37–26:14 | | Signature “no lettuce hands” banter, closing thoughts | 26:36–end |

Key Takeaways

• 2025 was a year full of shocks but also strong macro-driven opportunities, marked by a major AI boom and surprising equity leadership outside the US.
• The team’s biggest hits came from speculative, narrative-driven AI and defense tech stocks, but managing volatility and risk—as with DroneShield—was a recurring challenge.
• 2026 portfolio thematics center on continued pro-cyclicality, easing bank regulation, and real-world assets, yet the hosts warn that late-cycle dynamics mean increased risk for 2027.
• The “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit” ethos is alive and well, with a clear-eyed, self-deprecating look at mistakes and humility before the market.
• Prepare for a high-volatility ride in the year ahead—“No place for lettuce hands.”

For Listeners

If you want a deep-dive into Steno Research’s 2026 playbook, check out their “50-page banger” via Real Vision’s Pro subscription. And remember: manage risk, stay humble, and don’t have lettuce hands.