Marketecture Podcast Episode 116: Brian Weiser on Ad Forecasts and the Future of Pharma Advertising

Podcast Information:

• Title: Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast.
• Hosts: Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi
• Guest: Brian Weiser, Founder of Madison and Wall
• Release Date: March 28, 2025
• Description: The Marketecture Podcast, hosted by industry experts Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi, explores current trends and key insights in the advertising and marketing industries through interviews with thought leaders and in-depth vendor discussions.

Introduction

In Episode 116 of the Marketecture Podcast, hosts Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi welcome Brian Weiser, a returning guest and an expert in macroeconomics related to advertising. Brian discusses his recent decision to downgrade advertising forecasts for 2025 and explores the potential ramifications if pharmaceutical advertisements were to be banned. The conversation delves into the interplay between political factors and advertising, the impact of tariffs, and the evolving role of AI in the advertising landscape.

Downgrading Advertising Forecasts

Brian Weiser shared his updated outlook on the advertising industry, highlighting a more cautious approach due to the current political and economic climate.

• Initial Forecasts: Brian initially projected a 5.5% growth in advertising for 2025.
• Revised Forecasts: This has been adjusted downward to 3.6%, reflecting increased uncertainty and negative economic indicators.

Notable Quote:

“Stagflation is a very real scenario, much more real. And for those unfamiliar, stagflation means you have low or no economic growth or even decline and you have inflation.”
(04:36) – Brian Weiser

Impact of Political Factors and Tariffs

Brian elaborated on how the political landscape, particularly post-election policies, has influenced his decision to adjust advertising forecasts.

• Tariffs: Initially, tariffs on China were a primary concern, but recent moves against Canada and Europe pose a greater threat, especially to the auto industry.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Increased tariffs are expected to cause significant disruptions in supply chains, exacerbating economic inefficiencies.
• Policy Uncertainty: The unpredictability of government policies makes it challenging for businesses to plan their advertising budgets effectively.

Notable Quote:

“The fact that the US would go after Canada and Europe in general is far more disruptive than going after China.”
(08:14) – Brian Weiser

The Potential Ban on Pharma Ads

A hot topic discussed was the possibility of RFK Jr. pushing for a ban on pharmaceutical advertisements. Brian analyzed the feasibility and potential impact of such a move.

• Legal Considerations: Banning pharma ads would likely require legislative action, potentially involving an act of Congress.
• Economic Impact: Pharma ads account for approximately 5% of all advertising budgets, with a significant portion of TV and cable news revenue. A ban could disrupt these revenue streams and force advertisers to shift to other media channels.
• Technological Shifts: If TV ads are restricted, digital platforms might benefit as advertisers seek alternative channels.

Notable Quote:

“To the extent that they've dug into it, they'd have to get pretty creative... you have to assume that it's got a negative spin but you have a different view.”
(17:10) – Brian Weiser

AI’s Role in Advertising

The conversation transitioned to the transformative role of AI in the advertising industry, particularly in creative processes and campaign management.

• Image Generation: OpenAI’s introduction of 4O image generation for ChatGPT allows high-quality, text-to-image creations, enhancing ad creativity.
• Automation in Agencies: Agencies like Jellyfish are leveraging AI to automate roles traditionally held by junior media buyers, reducing team sizes from 30-40 to as few as four members.
• Future Implications: AI could reshape the structure of the industry, enabling media companies to integrate creative services more seamlessly and affordably.

Notable Quote:

“These platforms will be ubiquitous and that the elimination of friction between creative and media... has all sorts of implications for how the overall industry is structured.”
(31:13) – Brian Weiser

IAB’s Trusted Server Solution

Ari introduced the recent developments by the IAB Tech Lab, specifically the launch of the Trusted Server solution designed to help publishers regain control over digital advertising amid increasing browser restrictions.

• Functionality: By rendering publisher pages server-side, Trusted Server aims to reduce the impact of ad blockers and enhance ad delivery efficiency.
• Controversies: The solution has faced criticism for being duplicative of existing server-side solutions like Prebid and for reducing transparency in ad transactions.
• Industry Response: The initiative has sparked debate regarding its necessity and effectiveness, with some industry insiders questioning its value proposition.

Notable Quote:

“This was our view, by the way, before we brought our numbers down in December. There’s very limited growth for open Web in the framework we’re looking at for the overall advertising business.”
(44:39) – Brian Weiser

Google and YouTube Updates

The hosts discussed recent moves by Google and YouTube, focusing on their strategies to navigate legal challenges and expand their reach in the podcasting domain.

• Google’s News Experiment: Google conducted a test in eight EU markets, removing news from 1% of search results. The company reported negligible impact on revenue, positioning this move as a response to regulatory pressures.
• YouTube’s Podcasting Expansion: YouTube announced that a billion users watched podcast content last month and introduced dynamically inserted host-read ads, similar to formats favored by Spotify and Apple. This development aims to make YouTube a more attractive platform for podcasters by enhancing ad monetization capabilities.

Notable Quotes:

“The advertising money that does show does not in a world where you have essentially no growth or limited growth for open web.”
(44:39) – Brian Weiser

“I think YouTube is definitely the one to watch in podcasting.”
(50:47) – Ari Paparo

Conclusion

In this episode, Brian Weiser provided a comprehensive analysis of the current advertising landscape, emphasizing the significant impact of political and economic factors on industry forecasts. He highlighted the potential disruptions from policy changes, such as tariffs and possible bans on pharma ads, and explored the transformative role of AI in reshaping advertising practices. Additionally, the discussion touched on recent developments by the IAB Tech Lab and major tech companies like Google and YouTube, underscoring the dynamic and evolving nature of the advertising ecosystem.

Final Notable Quote:

“You have to keep in mind that even if you reduce the cost through AI, are you better off having people who are a little bit more expensive, but now they're offshored, but they're human? Still a more favorable trail for many brands.”
(39:35) – Brian Weiser

Where to Find Brian Weiser: Listeners interested in further insights from Brian Weiser can follow him on madisonwall.substack.com for a free weekly summary, including links to the Madison Wall Podcast and Agency Business with Olivia Morley available on Spotify and other podcast platforms.

Subscribe to Marketecture: Stay updated with new episodes every Friday and in-depth vendor interviews every Monday by subscribing to the Marketecture Podcast on marketecture.tv or your favorite podcasting app.