Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast. – Episode 144

Guest: Rich Greenfield (Partner, LightShed Partners / LightShed Ventures)
Hosts: Ari Paparo, Eric Franchi
Date: October 17, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the tumultuous state of traditional ("dying") media, with a special focus on recent deals, acquisitions, and maneuvers involving Paramount, Skydance, the Ellison family, Warner Bros., TikTok, and more. Rich Greenfield, a leading expert in media disruption, unpacks the growing entanglement of tech and legacy media, the pivotal role of distribution and technology, and the far-reaching impact of AI and protocol-driven ad tech on the future of advertising, media companies, and consumer habit shifts.

Key Discussion Points

1. Traditional Media’s "Dying" Yet Turbulent Era

• Paramount, Skydance, Warner Bros., and TikTok Connections:

  • Larry Ellison’s Role: Rich emphasizes that Larry Ellison is the major financial force behind recent acquisitions and investments—Paramount, a rumored Warner Bros. interest, and a 15% stake in TikTok’s U.S. entity via Oracle.

    “Larry’s the key behind Oracle. So, you can sort of build this matrix of, you know, having your fingers in a lot of key places.” (Rich Greenfield, 04:51)

  • Control vs. Influence: The group won’t outright "own" TikTok but will exert influence with a significant board seat and access, creating subtle but important content and news delivery advantages.

• Possible Warner Bros. Acquisition and Strategy:

  • The possibility that Skydance/Paramount may buy only parts of Warner Bros., like HBO and the film studio, after a potential split-up.
  • Wall Street’s excitement is mostly about unlocking value via splits and smaller, more digestible company pieces.

    “The stock went from $6, $7 up to $12, $13 on excitement for a split.” (Rich Greenfield, 07:54)

2. The Tech Gap in Legacy Media

• Ad Tech & Tech Talent Lag:

  • Legacy media hasn’t prioritized technology talent or ad tech innovation as tech-first companies do.
  • Netflix and tech firms treat engineers as "rock stars," unlike old-guard media (08:47-10:20).
  • Paramount’s recent strategic hires—Jay Askinazi (CRO, ad tech veteran) and Cindy Holland—signal change but results are yet to be seen.

    “None of the media companies…have done a really good job on the ad tech side to date.” (Rich, 10:19)

• Audience & Engagement Deficit:

  • Success in media now hinges on "time spent." Legacy companies lack both the distribution and sticky UIs (user interfaces) that drive engagement—the reason why content on Paramount+ often performs better on Netflix.

    “If you don’t have time spent, you can’t deliver [ads]. Who’s winning time spent right now? The big winner…is YouTube.” (Rich, 11:49)

3. The Importance of Distribution—The Hypothetical Roku Play

• Hosts and Rich posit that acquiring Roku would deliver the necessary tech and distribution platform, a preferable play over "just buying more content."

  “Owning Roku as a tech building block makes a heck of a lot more sense than doubling down on content…” (Rich, 16:03)

• Larry Ellison could do both—acquire tech platforms and content—but tech acquisition is under-prioritized.

4. TikTok: US "Acquisition" Explained

• Not a Full Sale: TikTok in the US will become a separate entity, with Oracle/Ellison and others taking minority stakes. ByteDance will retain up to 19.9%.
• Algorithm Nuances: The algorithm will be housed in the US; updates will come from China and be selectively accepted by the US team.
• For Advertisers: “Nothing’s really changed…except you are now less worried about it [TikTok] disappearing.” (Ari/Rich, 20:00)
• Ownership Structure: Oracle, two other major investors (including one from the Middle East), and a consortium (possibly Fox, etc.) will collectively control 45%, but no entity will have operational control.

5. The Trade Desk’s Ventura OS and the Fight for TV Tech

• DirecTV Partnership: Shifting from Android TV to Ventura OS opens doors for partnerships with TV manufacturers (OEMs) and direct integration for app/device synergy.
• Contentious Ad Tech Frameworks: The future of the Ventura OS hinges on the ability to attract major streaming apps—if Netflix, YouTube, or Disney+ refuse, the platform could fail.
• UID2 Resistance: Some major content partners are hesitant to adopt the Trade Desk’s UID2 framework, putting app ecosystem growth at risk.

6. Predictions for Search and Pharma Ads

• Search’s Migration Away from Google:

  • Trends suggest growing search behavior inside apps (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Reddit search) and direct-to-retailer queries, potentially chipping away at Google's centrality in search.
  • Google is countering with strong AI/search integration, but the next 18 months could see seismic shifts.
  • Memorable quote: “I feel like at some point in the next 18 months there won’t be traditional Google search, but we’ll see.” (Rich, 27:54)

• Pharma Ad Ban Debate:

  • Predictions of more restrictions (not outright bans) as disclosure requirements for pharma ads tighten—possibly leading to functional bans due to impractical disclosure requirements.

7. Ad Tech Protocols and AI Agents

• Prebid Conference Recap:

  • Lively discussion around header bidding, Trade Desk’s move to fork Prebid for its “OpenAds” header wrapper, publisher/SSP trust issues.

  “It all sums up to like, we don’t really trust you, the publishers or the ad tech community. And we’re taking control of this.” (Ari, 36:14)

• ADCP Launch:

  • New, mature open protocol (AD Context Protocol)—a movement of 20 companies towards agentic ad buying and creative logistics.
  • Practical use cases like automated resizing/creative workflow are "not sexy" but highly valuable; harder B2B agent-to-agent sales will take more time and trust.

• AI Agents and TV Ad Sales:

  • Rich doubts legacy TV media will leap quickly into AI agent-driven ad sales:

    “There is so much legacy thinking across this media world. I can’t imagine that happening.” (Rich, 41:27)

  • TV inventory and ad supply are shrinking; new AI protocols may unlock scale for small ad buys—but scale and business model may not translate as before.

8. The Future of AI Advertising and Consumer Experience

• Speculation & Uncertainty:

  • Changing device form factors (e.g., AR glasses), affiliate-driven ads, and the “one/right answer” problem in AI chats will upend traditional ad models.
  • As AI intermediates more transactions, retail media, impulse ad exposure, and even attribution could become obsolete.

    “As we use more and more AI applications… I’m not sure what advertising looks like in that environment at all.” (Rich, 45:00)

• Walmart x ChatGPT Partnership:

  • Potential to shift product searches and orders into AI-first environments—huge implications for Walmart versus Amazon, given changing search behavior.

9. Spotify x Netflix: Video Podcast Distribution

• Strategic Distribution:
  • Spotify’s new partnership brings video podcasts to Netflix, expanding reach for host-read ads beyond Spotify to Netflix’s massive global audience.

    “Getting them [podcasts] where you’re actually getting paid by Netflix for this content, but also the distribution…that’s a pretty big deal…” (Rich, 52:02)

  • YouTube’s podcast dominance poses strategic pressure; Netflix and Spotify both approach podcasting as a way to increase engagement and cheaper content acquisition.

10. Rich Media Club Lawsuit

• Patent Troll Warning:
  • Rich Media Club (successor to RealView) is suing major publishers over patents related to ad refresh and lazy loading, highlighting the ongoing dangers in rich media patent litigation for ad tech contracts and the necessity for indemnification.

    “It’s almost always some loser company that died in the 90s that has these patents and they tend to come after publishers.” (Ari, 57:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Larry’s the key behind Oracle. You can sort of build this matrix…having your fingers in a lot of key places."
  (Rich Greenfield, 04:51)

• "None of the media companies…have done a really good job on the ad tech side to date."
  (Rich, 10:19)

• "If you don’t have time spent, you can’t deliver [ads]. Who’s winning time spent right now? … YouTube."
  (Rich, 11:49)

• "Owning Roku as a tech building block makes a heck of a lot more sense than doubling down on content…"
  (Rich, 16:03)

• "Nothing’s really changed...except you are now less worried about it [TikTok] disappearing."
  (Ari/Rich, 20:00)

• "I feel like at some point in the next 18 months there won't be traditional Google search, but we’ll see."
  (Rich, 27:54)

• "There is so much legacy thinking across this media world. I can’t imagine that happening."
  (Rich, 41:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment Description | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:51 | Larry Ellison’s influence in media and tech acquisitions | | 08:47 | Traditional media’s ad tech and engineering deficits | | 10:20 | Strategic hiring at Paramount, but little change visible yet | | 11:49 | "Time spent" and engagement as the new media gold | | 13:02 | Why Paramount+ can't compete with Netflix or YouTube on engagement | | 16:03 | The argument for acquiring tech/distribution (Roku) over content | | 17:36 | TikTok deal mechanics, US entity, and what changes for advertisers | | 25:23 | The challenge of getting apps for Trade Desk’s Ventura OS | | 27:54 | Predictions about AI-driven search and the future of Google | | 36:14 | Trade Desk's OpenAds, conflict at Prebid Conference | | 41:27 | AI agent ad selling and why legacy TV won’t adopt quickly | | 45:29 | What does AI advertising look like? Future scenarios | | 52:02 | Spotify x Netflix deal: why it matters for podcast distribution | | 57:42 | Rich Media Club patent litigation; lessons for ad tech |

Additional Topics Briefly Covered

• Prebid Conference Recap: Power shifts in header bidding, TTD’s OpenAds announcement (36:14)
• ADCP (Ad Context Protocol) Launch: Collaboration among 20 companies, real agent-to-agent buying proof-of-concept (38:14)
• Spotify’s product limitations for independent video podcasters (55:14–55:53)
• Walmart’s partnership with ChatGPT, the implications for e-commerce (48:39–50:37)
• Ongoing media patent "minefields" and due diligence in ad tech contracting (57:42–58:24)

Final Thoughts

The convergence of tech and legacy media is accelerating—but traditional players risk irrelevance if they don’t overhaul both their technology stacks and their talent pools. The next phase will be shaped not by who owns the most content, but by who has the best distribution, engagement tools, and adaptability to an AI-driven future—where platforms, algorithms, and open protocols matter more than ever. As Rich Greenfield underscores, all eyes are now on whether these legacy giants have the cultural and operational bandwidth to make the leap or continue the slow decline.

(Summary by Marketecture Podcast Summarizer – Based solely on episode content. For full discussions and the latest industry insights, visit marketecture.tv.)