Marketecture Podcast Episode 162 Summary

Title: Eric Seufert on the SaaS-pocolypse, Meta’s Manus, and AppLovin’s Social Network
Air Date: February 27, 2026
Host: Ari Paparo
Guests: Eric Seufert (Mobile Dev Memo), Eric Franchi

Episode Overview

This week, Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi welcome Eric Seufert (of Mobile Dev Memo) for a wide-ranging discussion on the current seismic shifts in advertising, SaaS, AI-gatekeeping, and the evolving agency of walled gardens—particularly Apple, Meta/Facebook, and AppLovin. The conversation covers everything from the so-called "SaaS-pocalypse," Apple's evolving role as an AI gatekeeper, Meta’s acquisition and rollout of the Manus AI tool, and AppLovin’s surprising ambition to build a social network. The trio also break down timely industry news, including Infillion's acquisition of Catalina, The Trade Desk’s quarterly results, and the rocket growth of Walmart Connect.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "SaaS-pocalypse" and the Future of Apps

[07:46 – 15:17]

• Rising Fears of SaaS Obsolescence:
  A wave of Wall Street pessimism is driving down SaaS company valuations, fueled by the idea that AI agents could commoditize—or eliminate—traditional apps and software. Elon Musk stoked this narrative, suggesting on Joe Rogan that soon there may not be traditional operating systems or apps, but rather "devices that are edge nodes for AI inference."

  "If you have ChatGPT or an agent, and you get me an Uber, you may not need the Uber app, in which case the app ecosystem may disappear." — Ari Paparo [08:00]

• Eric Seufert’s Skepticism:
  While there’s theoretical risk, Seufert argues that removing surface area (interfaces like apps) eliminates key commercial incentives like ads and user relationships, making it unlikely for such a future to fully materialize. Core consumer companies will always want customer interfaces and direct channels.

  "I think the reality is any specifically consumer-facing company is going to want to have their product in front of the user—they’re not gonna wanna be just dumb pipes." — Eric Seufert [11:13]

• Global Super Apps Discussion:
  Discuss why “super apps” (popular in Asia) haven’t taken off in the West—possibly due to cultural preferences for separated services and individuality, despite multiple attempts (including by Facebook).

2. Apple as AI Gatekeeper: App Store Changes & App Rejections

[15:17 – 23:34]

• AI Tracking Transparency—Apple's New App Store Policy:
  Apple updated its developer guidelines: if an app sends personal data to a third-party AI service, it must now display an opt-in consent screen.

  "Any time you're sending personal data to a third-party AI service, you need to offer a just-in-time consent, opt-in screen." — Eric Seufert [15:46]

• Apple's Strategy Resembles ATT (App Tracking Transparency):
  Apple’s definition of “personal data” is intentionally vague, giving them latitude in enforcement and power over which models are “first party.”

  "Apple wants maximum latitude to selectively apply their developer guidelines." — Eric Seufert [15:57]

• Strategic Revenue Impact:
  Seufert predicts Apple will eventually monetize AI calls from developers by offering "privacy-compliant" access via proprietary frameworks or partnerships, akin to search engine deals.

  "I think they’re going to want to make money on exposing AI models to iOS users—and probably in the same way they make with search engines." — Eric Seufert [20:30]

3. Meta’s Manus Acquisition and Ad Automation

[24:17 – 31:43]

• Meta’s Move:
  Meta’s $2B acquisition of Manus was not just an acqui-hire but a strategic push to automate Facebook Ads Manager and the Advantage+ suite using AI “agents”—not models.

  "They didn’t build models, they just built agents…This is central to Meta’s current thesis." — Eric Seufert [24:17]

• AI Business Assistant & Publisher Integration:
  Manus' tools allow businesses to automate campaign creation and potentially integrate personalized purchase journeys directly into brand’s own websites and apps, harnessing Meta’s data and AI.

  "A way to have a chatbot take the baton from ad handoff, walk the consumer through the purchasing journey…a very fundamental change." — Eric Seufert [26:30]

• Comparing with Google:
  Meta’s approach is more aggressive in using consumer data for small business support and marketing automation, in contrast to Google’s more siloed and SaaS-like tools.

• Industry Impact:
  Discussion of whether independent adtech/martech can compete with this “automation stack,” or if they must focus on other “surface areas” like CTV or digital out of home, where Meta isn’t dominant.

4. AppLovin’s Social Network Ambitions

[33:03 – 36:47]

• AppLovin’s Play:
  After a failed TikTok bid, AppLovin now considers building its own social network, leveraging its massive free cash flow and scalable ad network.

  "What does it take to launch a scaled social platform? TikTok spent a billion dollars in 2018 alone on US user acquisition…AppLovin generates an incredible amount of free cash flow." — Eric Seufert [33:03]

• Risks & Realities:
  Ari points out the financial risk for a public company to take on this kind of capex-heavy venture, but agrees there’s upside if successful.

• Historical Context:
  Eric notes AppLovin has tried socially-driven products before (e.g., Florida Flip), but true breakthrough social networks have rarely emerged in recent years, underlining the challenge.

5. Industry News Highlights ("The Refresh")

a. Infillion Acquires Catalina

[37:58 – 43:26]

• What’s Catalina?
  A retail data company with deterministic purchase data from loyalty cards and 70 major retail locations, tracking 130 million households and $600B in annual spending.

• Strategic Motive:
  Infillion, a scaled private adtech company, uses the asset for exclusive and unique data, empowering its retail media network (RMN) platform.

• Competitive Implications:
  Discussion on why bigger players (e.g., The Trade Desk, Yahoo!) didn’t try harder for the acquisition.

b. The Trade Desk Earnings & Take Rate

[43:31 – 52:35]

• Earnings Recap:
  TTD's quarter was strong, but the outlook was soft—the stock dropped. Main points of debate:

  • Take Rate Up: Driven by OpenPath (direct publisher integrations) which consolidate supply chain margin.
  • OpenPath Transparency Issues: Agencies like Dentsu and WPP reportedly "quietly exited" OpenPath over transparency concerns—though Ari is skeptical, suggesting it might be about lost rebates, not true transparency.

• Competitive Landscape:
  Jeff Green (TTD CEO) continues to assert Google is a more serious competitor than Amazon. The market now sees TTD, DV360, and Amazon in a “three-way tie” for DSP spend, with Yahoo a distant fourth.

  "Now…it’s like a three-way tie at this point for market share, more or less with some rounding. They’re all in the 10 to 13 [billion] range." — Ari Paparo [51:01]

c. AI/NLP Industry Startups

[53:04 – 59:52]

• Profound.ai:
  Raises a $96M Series C at $1B valuation as a “GEO-AI” (Answer Engine Optimization) player—10% of the Fortune 500 reportedly using it.

  "Every CMO is obsessed with this subject: how do their brands appear in AI?" — Ari Paparo [53:11]

• KOA (the “AdSense for AI”):
  $20M Series A led by Theory Ventures; the company enables LLMs and chatbots to monetize via ads. Ari is deeply skeptical:

  "This is a terrible business plan...it only works if there’s a fragmented long tail of AI agents, and most of those don’t have context that makes ads make sense…" — Ari Paparo [57:56]

d. Retail Media: Walmart Connect’s Explosive Growth

[59:52 – 63:00]

• Walmart Connect US ad revenue is up 41%—fast enough that it’s gaining ground relative to the rest of digital.
• Debate:
  Is this expanding the overall ad market pie, or just shifting spend from analog channels (couponing, in-store displays)?

  "My sense would be that some of that growth is just a function of digital being a much more efficient path to driving commerce..." — Eric Seufert [62:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI Gatekeeping:
  "Apple wants to be able to selectively apply their developer guidelines; they never define anything exhaustively." — Eric Seufert [15:57]

• On the Endurance of Apps:
  "You lose any ability to communicate with the user if you’re always mediated…companies are not going to want to be just dumb pipes." — Eric Seufert [11:13]

• On Meta’s Manus Acquisition:
  "This could be a strong validation of the value inherent in continued campaign optimization automation." — Eric Seufert [24:17]

• On AppLovin Social Network:
  "If you’re Applovin...they could truly become a walled garden...If they’re willing to finance it, they probably could [grow it] to the same tune that TikTok did." — Eric Seufert [33:03]

• On the DSP Market:
  "It used to be DV360, then a long way back was Trade Desk and Amazon was zero. Now...it’s like a three-way tie." — Ari Paparo [51:01]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [07:46] — SaaS-pocolypse/AI Agent discourse
• [15:17] — Apple’s App Store AI policy/ad tracking transparency
• [24:17] — Meta’s Manus acquisition and business AI strategy
• [33:03] — AppLovin’s social network ambitions and challenges
• [37:58] — News segment ("The Refresh"): Infillion/Catalina
• [43:31] — The Trade Desk’s quarterly review, OpenPath, market competition
• [53:04] — Startup funding: Profound.ai and KOA
• [59:52] — Walmart Connect’s ad growth and the rise of retail media

Where to Find Eric Seufert

• Podcast: Mobile Dev Memo ("The Prosperous Society" series)
• Newsletter: MobileDevMemo.com
• X/Twitter: @eric_seufert

Final Thoughts

This episode is packed with cutting-edge analysis and candid debate on the state of adtech, AI’s impact on software and app ecosystems, walled garden strategy, and where opportunity remains for independent players. For anyone who cares about the intersection of media, marketing, and machine intelligence, it’s a must-listen (or read).