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Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast.
Episode 164: Ari and Jeff Green talk about his giant stock purchase, OpenPath, their AI plans, and more
00:33:42
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- [00:01]
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- [00:49]
Ari Paparo
Welcome to the market Podcast. This is Ari Paparo. We're coming off an amazing week. We had a amazing time here at Architecture Live on Tuesday and Wednesday. We had a thousand people, incredible Vibes, great weather. Probably a lot of the people listening to this were there. It was great if I had a chance to see you. If I didn't, maybe next time. We are going to be broadcasting a bunch of the sessions from that on this channel over the next couple of weeks. But the most anticipated session by far was the closing session where I had a heart, heart conversation with Jeff Green, the CEO of the Trade Desk. Jeff has been in the news quite a bit. He's been post on LinkedIn, he's been, you know, buying his own stock and otherwise kind of shaking things up. And it was a packed house. Everyone wanted to hear what he had to say and we had a good conversation. We even broke some news about his AI plans about what the Trade Desk is offering its clients and AI. We also got some details on Ventura, their CTV offering and Open Path and what's going on there. So I hope you enjoyed. It was a great conversation. Eric and I will be back next Friday. We with our usual conversations and we'll, like I said, we'll be probably publishing a bunch of the market live conversations on this podcast channel, mostly on Mondays, moving forward for the next couple of weeks. So I hope you enjoy that. Thank you very much for attending if you were there. If not, I hope you enjoy this conversation. You've been in the mix in the last week or so. We had a prep call like a week ago and you said, oh, a lot more is coming. And I was like, oh my God, I can't take it. What's going on?
- [02:22]
Jeff Green
Well, yeah, a lot is happening. I mean, obviously probably the biggest news for me was making the biggest purchase of my life in an insider stock buy that I learned only afterwards was the third largest ever. Just a commentary on. Yeah, thanks. Thank you. Just a commentary on my convictions in our future.
- [02:46]
Ari Paparo
Right.
- [02:47]
Jeff Green
Which then kicked off a whole bunch
- [02:49]
Ari Paparo
of other discussions, do you just put it into Schwab, like Market Order, press, Dell?
- [02:57]
Jeff Green
I won't tell you which brokerage, but this one I did. Yes. You did, yes.
- [03:01]
Ari Paparo
Oh my God.
- [03:03]
Jeff Green
I mean, I'm working with their trading desk.
- [03:05]
Ari Paparo
Yeah, I imagine it is at a
- [03:07]
Jeff Green
firm like that where I kept it simple.
- [03:11]
Ari Paparo
All right, sounds good. So I want to know Your note on LinkedIn about the purchase had a couple of nuggets and I wanted to kind of ask you about.
- [03:20]
Jeff Green
We're off script already too, but.
- [03:21]
Ari Paparo
No, no, no, we're not, we're not. I mean, you wrote this, so I have to ask you about things you wrote. So first thing you said was soon you will have access to AI chat inventory. So I assume that's reference to ChatGPT. Is that deal done?
- [03:36]
Jeff Green
So I of course can't commentate on any deal that we have not publicly announced yet. But I'll just say in general, all of the AI companies have a serious problem in some ways, which is that their capex is massive, their valuations are massive and they have really high expectations on the way that they're going to make money. Almost all of them are either exploring or should be exploring what's happening inside of the ad ecosystem. And I think wisely, many of them are looking at it and saying, we're not just going to copy and paste what Google did in AdWords before. There's a lot more to think about. There's obviously even a lot more value that you can add. I think very few have really contemplated the fact that this isn't really conducive to keyword based marketing. If you look back to when the AdWords model was built, the average query was less than two words. Refinance, mortgage was what you would type in. And around the time that business model was born, what we're putting in in prompts is less keyword anchored, which creates an opportunity for something with more value as well as the answer is more valued. I took the time to write six sentences and now you're spending a whole bunch of compute. If I'm going to watch, maybe I should watch a video, right?
- [05:00]
Ari Paparo
From my perspective, sorry, putting on my product hat and a former DSP hat, it seems pretty hard to translate, Even if it's 20 words of great intent, into the kinds of campaign targeting in a system like yours. So how far along has that thinking gone?
- [05:19]
Jeff Green
I would say it's still. I mean, we have tons of ideas that I think are way beyond anything that we do right now in contextual or things like that. And of course, AI itself can help with that.
- [05:30]
Ari Paparo
Right.
- [05:31]
Jeff Green
Like the AI movement of the last few years has really been led by LLM. So of course there's an opportunity for that to play a role in the actual targeting. But it's still very nascent because there are business models that we don't want to harden until we can believe that they can be huge.
- [05:50]
Ari Paparo
The second thing you said in that post was that you were going to have access to retail media inventory. And I forget the way you phrased it, but it really sounded like you were talking about product listing ads of some kind, which I don't also believe you currently do at scale.
- [06:04]
Jeff Green
That's right. We don't do it at scale. We've done some basic testing. But the premise is essentially this. And this is the way that our decisions have been guided from inception. We tend to start with a macroeconomic view. And you've heard us talk a lot in the last few years about orienting around premium. And sometimes I make the analogy to clothing, where there are enough clothes in the world for every single person to have a wardrobe. It is not hard to get clothing to every person in the world. It's a tragedy that that isn't better done. But that doesn't change the fact that on Fifth Avenue, you can still buy a T shirt for $500. So there is a world of premium fashion. There is a massive stratification as it relates to gradients of fashion. And the exact same thing as it relates to content or even words on the Internet. There is premium content that is going for massive premiums, unprecedented premiums in live sports. I mean, the price of Paramount was so different than the market cap of the company five years ago. There are just so many examples of how the premium multiple on amazing content is going higher. And the exact same thing is true of ads. Most ad placements are not worth much, but there are many that are worth a tremendous amount. And that's where we've always been gravitating towards. We've been going to the places where there is premium. And one of the most amazing and one of the things that's great about premium, by the way, is that the best way to monetize it is with an auction, because there's high demand for those things. That's the reason why they're created that way. So sponsored listings are some of the more effective places for ads to be placed. However, many of the retailers just want more demand in order to move prices up. So we want more efficacy, they want more demand and there's some great conversations.
- [08:03]
Ari Paparo
Yeah, I mean retailers are, are very clean environments for the most part to show ads. One of the challenges has been where with non endemic that they don't. Retailers don't love the idea of ads that click out where you're not converting is have is there anything in your product strategy you can kind of give us a hint about as it relates
- [08:21]
Jeff Green
there nothing that I can say at this point. They, those retailers that obviously want to sell their own products before they sell somebody else's products have some, some policies that each of them need to make on their own and those obviously their, their choice but there's lots of data to show there can be reasons to do it.
- [08:43]
Ari Paparo
So the third thing you said in that post, and I don't want to like rat hole on this one forever is that the Amazon DSP might not exist in five years or I don't know if you said it won't exist, might not exist whatever you said. Can you give us your top level thinking on that?
- [08:58]
Jeff Green
Yeah. So I think this year you'll get another case study from Google on just all the difficulties of antitrust have really come from all their participation in the open Internet. Like I think you're going to hear from them a lot of like but we wish we were never in this. All of their troubles come from the open Internet and none of the money does for them. And I believe there's more at risk for Amazon because of the fact that it touches retail, because it touches AWS and cloud. To put those things at risk I think would be a strategic mistake for Amazon. So I believe that their role in the open Internet or their stay in the open Internet will be shorter than Google's because of the macro impacts on their business.
- [09:52]
Ari Paparo
That's interesting. I mean the open Internet is dangerous for these big companies to play in because there's a lot of people involved, a lot of politics. It wasn't in our notes. But I wonder, do you have any thoughts on what's going to happen with the Google trial? We're waiting any day now for a final judgment.
- [10:10]
Jeff Green
Honestly, while I do hope that there's some teeth to the ruling, I'm not sure that it matters that much. I think the pain has been felt enough that they're never going to try it again. And the case study for not doing it is very present and that's part of the reason why I make that assertion about Amazon. And I do want to be clear. I'm not saying that Amazon isn't doing well in ads. If there's anything that I've been misquoted on on Amazon, it is this. Amazon has a great ads business. They have an amazing future in ads. Those will always be built around sponsored listings and Prime Video. And that's where almost all the money comes from today. That future, I believe, is very bright for them. But everybody who has owned and operated inventory, where you make almost 100% margin on and then sponsored listings, that's the way they look at it in Prime Video. It's a much more complicated equation. But whenever you're comparing that to instead of me making the majority of a dollar, I'll just give 80 cents to my biggest competitor fighting over sports rights, that is Disney. I would rather not. I think it's when you play that out that they rethink their strategy because there isn't enough upside in their DSP as a standalone versus all the other avenues they can pursue, especially Prime Video and sponsored listening.
- [11:37]
Ari Paparo
Yeah, well, the danger is that if you make the analogy to Google and especially to the DV360 DSP, that it still exists and it's a major player, but they're sort of siphoning the Money over to YouTube.
- [11:51]
Jeff Green
So you pointed this out. I wish that the press would have covered this as well as you did. I really do.
- [11:57]
Ari Paparo
I consider myself the press kind of.
- [12:02]
Jeff Green
I guess the more mainstream trade press didn't cover it nearly as much as you did. And actually the tweet that you put out was so good, it was the simplest way to show like what had happened from 2018 onward. YouTube versus their open web.
- [12:17]
Ari Paparo
It's striking. The graphs that they showed into evidence are striking. I want to defend Ad Exchanger a little bit because I wrote a book about Google and like 90% of the footnotes in that book were Ad Exchanger. So, you know, this first draft of history thing was very much the case there. So I want to give them some props up on stage here. So let's change subjects. Let's talk about transparency versus outcomes. And I know you're going to object to that framing and I, I spent a lot of time in the last market texture on this. It feels to a lot of people that transparency is a little bit of for show that people like to talk about transparency, but really it's about roas or iroas and it doesn't matter how you get there. What's your reaction to that?
- [13:02]
Jeff Green
Yeah, I disagree with the framing partly because I just think there's a more interesting conversation to be had around closed versus open systems. I'VE been one that's talked a lot about the open Internet versus walled gardens, but I think we're elevating the conversation to more about open systems versus closed systems in the open. Closed systems. And this actually has been a lot of the conversations that I think are happening inside of many of the biggest AI companies in the world. You have to power an ecosystem in order to be successful. They need to power hundreds, thousands of companies that are innovating in order to really do well. I would argue that the greatest asset at Apple is their app marketplace where they powered innovation of other companies. So I think the danger in some of the closed systems and what we've historically sometimes referred to as walled gardens, is that the transparency around their measurement or the way they count outcomes is so self serving. Like I'm often saying that I believe the greatest accomplishment in some of the walled gardens is not connecting billions of people to each other. It's not in the millions of hours that are uploaded every second. It's actually that they've taken credit for all the brand building that other companies have been doing and they've managed to take credit for all of that performance with their products. That that is at the core of the problem with the closed advertising ecosystems. So you're right, outcomes are outcomes. But if you say this one platform sold all of my products, like, I mean I was talking to a CPG recently where you just look at the growth of those companies versus the growth of theirs. Like for 50 years these companies were growing at 10% a year and then all of a sudden that stopped with the advent of digital, where now the companies, especially those with closed ecosystems, are growing rapidly and they are not.
- [15:11]
Ari Paparo
There's no doubt it's extractive to some extent. It works though, to some extent. So you're kind of balancing the two things. The open conversation's interesting. Open, transparent, all these words kind of mean different things. But like you basically, if you're in danger, I think not you, but you thank God, in danger of creating Linux for the desktop where it's like total control, total openness, and yet it's hard to use and it's more effort. And on the other hand, you have a beautiful new Mac that you can just buy and it all works.
- [15:41]
Jeff Green
I think that's right. I think that's actually fair. I believe even at times inside of Trade Desk, we've been dogmatic about transparency. Sometimes that can translate into one time at bandcamp and then you just spew. And we at times have been way too open to the point that it's not practical transparency.
- [16:05]
Ari Paparo
Right. What does that mean? What's not practical?
- [16:07]
Jeff Green
Well, so like I'll use another analogy sometimes I think as it relates to the way that we invoice. Like you get an invoice from.
- [16:14]
Ari Paparo
I had this problem with beeswax too from Facebook.
- [16:17]
Jeff Green
You get like a one line invoice. We give you like 30 pages. And so it's the equivalent of going to a restaurant at the end of the meal getting a list of every ingredient you just consumed.
- [16:27]
Ari Paparo
Yeah.
- [16:28]
Jeff Green
And then we debate the price of croutons or chili powder. And that I just don't think is an effective way to be transparent. What you're trying to create is understanding.
- [16:40]
Ari Paparo
Right.
- [16:41]
Jeff Green
And we're constantly looking through the rubric now of how do we create understanding? How do you make this accessible? That's practical transparency.
- [16:50]
Ari Paparo
I highly recommend not being transparent on your invoices. From my experience also, there's just no benefit to that. You know, follow up, you could get a transparent invoice if you ask for it, but not on the first go. So transparency kind of folds into the next topic, open path, supply, et cetera. We had Michael Sullivan up here earlier and he covered it. So I don't want to cover it too much, but I do think it's kind of interesting. I'll take your side of this conversation, which is Yahoo has its own supply. Microsoft has its own supply. Google has its own supply. 70% of dev, 360 bids on supply controlled by Google. Why do you get such a hassle on this? Why is everyone up your ass on openpath?
- [17:36]
Jeff Green
Yeah, so I think the primary reason is we have said we're going to create a stalking horse and a canary in the coal mine and that we're trying to create the most efficient supply path for the open Internet. I think there are a significant percentage of companies in our space that are, instead of trying to create efficient supply paths, are trying to exploit inefficient supply paths. And so of course you wouldn't want a product like that. It is a disruptive product because it's trying to make the supply chain better. And the people that are monetizing an ineffective supply chain hate it.
- [18:19]
Ari Paparo
So there was an article on Adweek that, that was in Terry's presentation as well that said that Dentsu and WPP were moving away from it for transparency reasons. I kind of have a two part question. First was, is that true?
- [18:36]
Jeff Green
So I won't comment on those two. Specifically. I do think Terry made a great point in his presentation which was Just that when you shine a light of transparency and if you have a way of monetizing that isn't conducive to transparency, you might not like the product.
- [19:00]
Ari Paparo
Okay, that's the second half of my question, so we'll just call it a day on that one. I do have one other. There's a little bit of a geeky question, but on openpath, which is, I think o' Sullivan said, we do not optimize for publisher yield. That was one of his distinctions, why openpath is different from other systems. And my question is, why would a publisher want that? Like if a publisher, if demand is the same and we have one party, an ssp, that is caring about publisher yield, and a different party, OpenPath, which is neutral, hands off. We just bid what we bid. Shouldn't the first party, the ssp, produce better results from the publisher's perspective?
- [19:38]
Jeff Green
Yes, but I just think there's a part of the premise of your question that I disagree with, which is that what many SSPs are doing is trying to get the highest price possible. And then they often live off the spread as much as they possibly can. They are not just taking the same percentage off of every transaction. Very few of them have that business model today. So it actually moves you from being a real estate agent where you're representing the seller and you make a 4% or 3% or whatever on the take, and instead you're essentially flipping houses, where you buy the house and you sell it for as much as you possibly can. That's not yield management, because in that business you're trying to buy it for as low as possible. So yield management would be to represent them and say, I'm trying to get you the highest price possible. So just because they're in the end pursuing a high cpm, that's so that they make money, not so that the publisher makes money. That's why publishers wouldn't like that system.
- [20:49]
Ari Paparo
Makes sense. Although I don't believe any major exchange or SSP has been successful with a pure like, call it an agent model, where all they do is try to increase publisher yield without any demand. Side, almost all of them have been forced to have demand in order to create a business model.
- [21:05]
Jeff Green
Agreed, but that doesn't change my point.
- [21:08]
Ari Paparo
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- [22:02]
Jeff Green
Oh, wow, we only have ten minutes left.
- [22:04]
Ari Paparo
We go long,
- [22:09]
Jeff Green
let's start big picture. That's always the way that I prefer to answer these very big questions. I don't think that there is an industry in the world that is more conducive to AI than programmatic advertising. I mean, we're looking at 2 million ad impression opportunities every single sec. Or sorry, 20 million ad impression opportunities every single second. And then we're also representing millions and millions of ad campaigns with obviously lots and lots of creatives, billions of users on the other side. And we have to do this in 10 milliseconds or less. Extremely conducive to AI. Also, when you. I don't know that there is a better puzzle, if you will, for agentic AI than what we do in programmatic advertising. I think the use cases for agentic have been overstated outside of our industry. So like people say, oh, I'm going to have an agent book my flight. So they're going to go to Expedia, or instead of going to Expedia, you'll have an agent book it. Well, you know what your agent needs to know what day do you want to fly? Okay, what airline do you want to fly? Where do you want to sit? And every question that they just asked you that the agent or LLM just asked you is the Expedia ui. And you know what would help that is if I had a visual. Now we're back to the ui. Yes. It's not really, it's not nearly as conducive as what we do in this industry because when you take a $500,000 campaign and want to turn it into a million dollar campaign, we gotta change something. But you could change 10,000 different things. You could expand your site list, you could increase your bid factors, you could change your frequency caps, you could change your geo targeting, you could add more creatives, you could add a different creative format, you could add another channel, you could do all of these different things and one of them or two of them or three of them or some blend of them is better than another. And so if the agents can frame these choices and help you see the trade offs in a way that, honestly, those of us that have been working on this, you included, that have tried to do this in UIs really, really hard because of the number of permutations that need to be represented. This is a perfect task for agentic. This is a perfect task for AI. Like, I agree with Terry's assertion from earlier as well that the AI efficiencies that will come to the supply chain are going to just dramatically change the landscape. And the companies that invest in it and continue to look for ways to make it an edge are going to do really well.
- [24:54]
Ari Paparo
Do you see the application of AI as? And I know the answer is going to be both, but which is the priority within a system like the trade desk or across the trade desk to other systems?
- [25:06]
Jeff Green
Well, I just have a bias to learn on our own stuff because we can control it. So sort of eat your own dog food kind of thing. We start with our own products, we try to use it internally. We basically created this architecture many years ago that we call distributed AI, where we basically take every single function, divide it into pieces, create very clear goals and inputs and outputs. Because one of the dangers of AI is there's a garbage in, garbage out problem. Or when you get bad data, you can make bad decisions and never know it. Like, how does the machine know when it's wrong? So creating as many checks and balances in our own architecture to make certain that we're looking for those. So doing all of that in our own four walls so that we can learn from it and learn from the mistakes before we expose it to others. Especially at a time when it's a bit of a wild wild west. And there's also a lot of clamoring for people to claim to plant their AI flag.
- [26:04]
Ari Paparo
True.
- [26:05]
Jeff Green
Instead of actually doing something substantive, we wanted to make certain that they can engage on something substantive.
- [26:10]
Ari Paparo
But your customers, especially the big agency holding companies, they're seeing AI, I think, speaking for them, as like a life or death struggle. Like they have to invest as quickly as possible because there's so many humans involved, so much headcount, and you're downstream from that. Right. So I assume that you're getting a lot of pressure from the customers.
- [26:31]
Jeff Green
Yeah, yeah, there definitely is a lot of need to create, manage campaigns. I do think that's where a lot of things will start. That's obviously where a lot of the frameworks have started as well.
- [26:42]
Ari Paparo
Can someone go into Claude and create A campaign in the trade desk?
- [26:47]
Jeff Green
If you're a part of our closed beta, yes.
- [26:49]
Ari Paparo
Oh, okay. That's news, I guess. Right? So I'm not sure if I was
- [26:55]
Jeff Green
supposed to say that.
- [26:58]
Ari Paparo
So let's talk about CTV and video for a moment, because I think it's an interesting area. So we've got walled gardens and more walled gardens popping up. Right. I don't think most of us thought much about Amazon in CCTV and video five or six years ago. Now it's interacting with their DSP. It's competitive. So your answer to some extent. One of your answers is Ventura. And there was recently an announcement which sounded like a little bit of a pivot for Ventura. Can you tell us what the state is of that project right now?
- [27:29]
Jeff Green
Oh, what did you think resembled a pivot?
- [27:32]
Ari Paparo
You know, I have to read these things, like, you know, like the Talmud. I'm kind of going through it line by line. It sounded like you were offering Ventura as not just an operating system, but more as an SDK in somebody else's operating system.
- [27:45]
Jeff Green
Oh, I see. I see where the confusion has come. So. So let me just give broad strokes on Ventura and the strategy. So most OEMs make close to zero, sometimes even negative, and it will be definitively negative for all of them any minute now in terms of the amount of money that they make selling to television. Which, of course begs the question, why are we in this industry and how do we fix it? So all of them are essentially in search of a business model. And of course, in the same way that the large AI companies are looking for revisions to its business model, so are they. And we've gone to them and essentially said, we want to be the streaming os. And to be very clear, I am not interested in controlling the color or the sound on a tv. I don't want to be the operating system for all the OEM parts that they make. You choose cinematic or color or whatever the different options are. We just want to help enable the streaming portion of your operating system. So we have partnered with some of the operating systems that are. They have big visions of being the OS for the entire house with V and hisense. Sure. For instance. And we end up being the streaming component. They say we don't really know anything about the ad ecosystem. You help us build that out so that our OEMs can have a business model that touches advertising, and we're going to work on all the other things. They have visions of powering the Internet of things, and you're into all the things that connect in your house, via your television. I really hope they're successful. I love the vision that they have, but we don't have those same ambitions. So we partner.
- [29:38]
Ari Paparo
When you say the streaming portion, would that mean that a consumer would see part of the UI would be yours, and then within that you might have an HBO Max app?
- [29:49]
Jeff Green
That's right.
- [29:50]
Ari Paparo
Okay.
- [29:50]
Jeff Green
That's right, yeah. So the framework would be a combination of us and the partner or the OEM that we're working with.
- [29:58]
Ari Paparo
And the benefit would be better monetization because it would have UID 2 and other things in it.
- [30:03]
Jeff Green
Exactly. And I've had a number of those players say to us, hey, you guys know more about the ad ecosystem than I'll ever forget. Or you'll forget more than I'll ever know is what they say. And we just look at it and say, yeah, like this is a very complicated, esoteric space that we would love to help you navigate and protect. And in us doing that, part of our reason for doing that is to make certain that we have a supply chain that never gets as messy as the one that we're constantly trying to clean up in, like Display, for instance.
- [30:35]
Ari Paparo
Right. And so when it first was announced or not announced or leaked back in last September, or whenever I wrote a piece about how I thought part of the model might be that you would have to pay OEMs up front as way of deferring the lost revenue on their TVs to get access. Is that part of the business model?
- [30:55]
Jeff Green
Not yet.
- [30:56]
Ari Paparo
Not yet. Okay, I'll take that for an answer. Last subject that is of interest to me especially is the hedge gardens. So the folks like Reddit and Spotify and Pinterest all have really great audiences, very native ad formats, and have kind of gone back and forth from open to closed. What's the trade desk's approach there with those companies other than just loving them and being partners? How do you think about it Strategically?
- [31:24]
Jeff Green
Yeah. So to me, it's where you fit on that premium continuum that becomes, that helps us figure out how we engage. So if you're hedged and you're more in an environment that is user generated content or just has a massive amount of supply, to me that's less important than if you're premium content just because we want to make certain that we're plugged into all of those environments and give advertisers the power of choice, fungibility, price comparison, and therefore price discovery, it. Right.
- [31:58]
Ari Paparo
It's, it's a challenge on the product side. You know, I'm running a campaign for whatever, and I want some form of standardization. And then I have a kind of a strange, like, Reddit ad unit that has to be part of that. It. It seems like it. It's what customers might want, but it's also difficult to actually execute.
- [32:16]
Jeff Green
Yeah. I don't think at Mass, that is what customers want.
- [32:19]
Ari Paparo
Okay.
- [32:19]
Jeff Green
And to me, the. I always revert back to the case study of FBX or the Facebook Exchange. When that was. When that was open, they were shocked by how long it took people to adapt to a different format and how that hindered their initial success. And they, at the time, were so massive. I use that as a cautionary tale whenever I'm giving advice to those companies about choosing between open and closed and. And unique formats.
- [32:50]
Ari Paparo
It's surprisingly similar to the OpenAI conversation that we started this conversation with. So it's like, you know, time is the flat circle, basically. All right, we're out of time. Thank you so much, Jeff.
- [33:00]
Jeff Green
Long overdue. Thank you.
- [33:01]
Ari Paparo
Yes.
- [33:02]
Jeff Green
Thank you for subscribing to marketecture.
- [33:05]
Ari Paparo
New interviews are added every week at
- [33:07]
Jeff Green
marketecture TV in your favorite podcasting app.