Marketing Operators Podcast - Episode Summary

Episode: Black Friday Cyber Monday Recap & The Forecasting Process Behind Ecom Profit
Hosts: Connor Rolain, Connor MacDonald, Cody Plofker
Guest: Richie Mashiko
Date: December 9, 2025

Overview

This episode explores the hosts’ and guest Richie Mashiko’s hands-on experiences and strategic insights from Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 as top operators in the ecommerce industry. They deeply recap what made BFCM campaign execution smoother and more profitable this year, dissect lessons learned in media mix and funnel health, and then dig into Richie's zone of genius: financial forecasting for ecommerce brands—how top DTC operators build, pressure-test, and act on their forecasts for sustainable profit and growth.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. BFCM 2025—The Smoothest Yet

• Flawless Execution:
  All speakers agreed this was their smoothest Black Friday/Cyber Monday, especially compared to the chaos of 2024.

  • “By far smoothest Black Friday Cyber Monday, which was like a night and day difference over 2024.” (C, 00:05; 13:46)
  • Only minor tech hiccups (e.g., Shopify, Postscript admin) disrupted otherwise seamless operations.
  • Shift from stressful, scrutinized efficiency in 2024 to growth this year:
    • “I finished 2024…I was like, dude, I don't know how many more of these I can do. I'm so tired. It was like extremely stressful. We like didn't get a lot of growth. We were really focused on efficiency and because of that it just felt like every, every dollar we spent had to be like so scrutinized.” (C, 13:46)

• Performance Highlights:

  • Ridge: Up 30% YoY revenue, best week and biggest BFCM ever.
  • Hexclad: Most organized planning, only small pivots needed around budgets or stocking.
  • Birdie (Richie): Came back from distress, relaunched ads only in October but saw very profitable results.

2. Brand & Channel Diversification Wins

• Media Mix Matters:
  Panelists credited year-round investment in diversified media for their BFCM wins—TV, podcasts, YouTube in addition to Meta.

  • “The brands that struggled at scale are just the ones that never really figured out how to diversify their media mix.” (A, 00:11; 25:32)
  • “Our biggest rock…was like, we got to be less on meta and more in other channels because we just weren't reaching new people through meta.” (B, 16:58)

• Funnel Health as KPI:
  Tracking unique users, product page views, and active cart users (“funnel health metrics”) proved a leading indicator for BFCM success—these outpaced revenue growth.

  • “I was seeing that… those funnel health metrics I was tracking all year long…are the right metrics to be looking at.” (B, 16:58)

Quote:

“Media mix diversification 1…I think on the smaller end, call it like the sub 30 million…the media mix is basically Facebook, right? Or meta, whatever you want to call it. And then there’s a category…call it like +50…And I think…the ones that really invested in like top of funnel impressions…those brands won.”
— Richie, 25:32

• View Content Campaigns:
  Running “view content” (add to cart and product page, not just purchase) campaigns on Meta provided critical funnel expansion during BFCM.
  • “If you want to be spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, it just like makes sense to be expanding your account in that way during Black Friday.” (C, 21:33)

3. Creative, Measurement, and Conversion Optimization

• Creative Quality and Diverse Testing:
  Brands leaned into new formats—Flex ads, UGC, and robust creative testing—leading to a direct impact on engagement metrics and costs.

  • “We also put a ton of budget into our…Flex ads…we are seeing huge scale…meta's new version of…dynamic creative test.” (B, 20:40)

• Measuring and Interpreting CPMs:
  Intense debate over CPM’s value:

  • “Meta can probably squat £400, but linear TV can run a 10 mile at a 6:30 pace. You're totally right.” (B, 30:03)
  • “I am so not a subscriber to that [CPMs don't matter] ideology…If CPMs double year over year and you're reaching half the people, like that absolutely matters.” (B, 38:24)

• Site & Offer Conversion:

  • “The way we implemented the deal drop, we had like really nice badging and flaring and it was like kind of intuitive to navigate. So those were all things I Would list as wins.” (C, 43:39)
  • AOV stability was celebrated—lower entry point offers increased traffic, units attached grew, basket size was preserved or improved even with deals.

Quote:

“This sale was really a culmination of everything we've been doing…testing into the UX of our sale collection page…inserting more branding…instead of building…net new swings, it's like, no, this works, let's just make it 5% better, 3% better and just stack those wins.”
— B, 45:17

4. Financial Forecasting for Ecom Profit

Richie dives into his “zone of genius,” demystifying how the best brands forecast and act on their numbers.

a. Understanding Business Goals & Path to Profit

• Are you building a cash-flow business, or blitzscaling for an eventual sale/multiple?
• Example: Supplement/hydration brands can justify loss-leader acquisition and blitzscale for LTV/tam. Birdie is more focused on sustainable, smaller-scale cash flow.

Quote:

“There are two fundamental ways that I…think of, of how do you make money in E commerce business? Are you going to sell your thing at the end…or are you gonna, are you gonna harvest and, and take out cash along the way?”
— Richie, 59:10

b. Forecasting/Modeling Revenue Responsibly

• Build bottoms-up financial forecasts along two axes:
  Cohort-based (repeat vs new customer revenue) and/or SKU-based modeling.

  • Use real, conservative assumptions—don’t over-project how much CAC (customer acquisition cost) will stay flat as you increase spend.
  • “As you scale, for every 25-30% increase in spend…your CAC’s gonna probably go up 10 to 15%...until you get to maybe low 8 figures in spend.” (A, 75:02)

• Empower marketing/growth to directly shape forecasting in partnership with finance, not just have numbers handed “from above.”

Quote:

“Where people get in trouble from a forecasting perspective is not necessarily being tied into reality… If I'm going to double my spend, my CAC probably isn't going to stay the same.”
— Richie, 70:13

c. Impact of Marketing Choices on Profit & Health

• Forecasting informs everything: whether to run more promos, launch new categories, or adjust the media mix to maintain growth and healthy CAC.
• Don’t “squeeze the email list dry” just to hit a top-line goal if not structurally supported.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Analogies

• Meta vs. Linear TV:
  “Meta can probably squat 400 pounds but linear TV can run a 10 mile at a 6:30 pace.” — B, 28:57

• Cuts of Meat Analogy:
  “Not all ads are created equal… It’s like a cow. The filet and the ribeye are a little bit different than the…oxtails. You may pay a different price for a different cut.” — Richie, 39:51

• Forecasting Wisdom:
  “It’s easy to throw numbers around, but just…having that growth background, like, you just know some things are, are, are reasonable and, and not reasonable…empowering [marketers] to have…a seat at the forecasting table.” — Richie, 77:22

• Brand Building Mindset:
  “You could have some, some nice moments. So that's what I…think…not all people who play basketball are cut out to be LeBron James…maybe having a really good high school varsity career is like where you're capped out, right? But there's no shame in that.” — Richie, 60:15

Key Timestamps

• [13:46] – Smoothest BFCM yet, contrast with stressful 2024
• [16:28 – 21:33] – Funnel health, media mix, and top-of-funnel metrics as leading indicators
• [25:32 – 30:20] – Business types, CPM measurement, and the “fit” analogy
• [33:20 – 34:07] – Meta performance: CPMs, clickthrough, and “blessed” costs
• [43:39 – 46:59] – Conversion optimization, UX wins during peak season
• [53:44 – 74:08] – Richie’s forecasting masterclass: how top operators build, stress-test, and enable plans
• [74:46 – 80:16] – Growth/finance collaboration, how not to set unrealistic acquisition/spend targets

Flow and Tone

The episode is energetic, operator-focused, candid, and packed with actionable detail. The hosts and Richie shift easily between granular tactical details (e.g., UX for promo pages, rolling reach reports, forecasting templates) and big-picture modeling and analogies, all with a friendly, direct tone (“You guys are so smart…I listen to yours all the time, so it's fun to be on, dude.” — Richie, 84:11).

Practical Takeaways

• Nail your media diversification strategy before BFCM for better performance and wider reach.
• Track funnel health metrics year-round—focus less on just revenue and more on signals like product views and add to cart users.
• Let marketing operators shape, not just react to, the financial forecast. Tie spend and new customer expectations to real data and realistic CAC growth.
• Don’t obsess over conversion rate—growth can sometimes mean lower CR at higher volume/AOV, which is still a win.
• If you're stuck on growth without spend, it may be time for new products, new channels, or a bigger rethink, not just squeezing harder.

Episode Highlight:
The detailed walkthrough of how financial forecasting truly works for ecommerce brands—especially the cohort/repeat revenue split—was a masterclass for any growth leader hoping to partner better with their finance team and hit both profit and growth.

“If you can create a sense of understanding between the relationship in media spend and revenue growth and efficiency trends… invest in the time it takes to kind of educate the finance department… it is so well worth it to save you hours and hours…down the line.”
— B, 80:57

For more hands-on forecasting resources and templates referenced in the show, contact the hosts or Richie directly.