Podcast Summary: Marketing Operators

Episode: Inside Our Forecasting, Pacing, and Holiday Shipping Strategy for BFCM Success
Hosts: Connor Rolain, Connor MacDonald, Cody Plofker
Date: November 4, 2025

Overview

This episode offers a hands-on, data-driven discussion into advanced forecasting, ad pacing, and ecommerce shipping strategies for Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) and the holiday retail period. The hosts, all accomplished DTC marketers, transparently break down how their teams approach revenue projections, sale layering, ad tests, and maximizing fulfillment and AOV across the most critical months of the year. The language is candid and practical, with direct references to their brands (Ridge Wallet, HexClad, Jones Road) and abundant tactical advice.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Changing Role of Black Friday in Revenue Mix

• Black Friday’s Share: For most, Black Friday now comprises ~10-12% of Nov/Dec sales, less than assumptions might suggest. (00:00, 53:34)
  • Sam: “12% of our revenue comes on Black Friday.” (00:00)
  • Connor: “We are like we're under… right around 10.” (54:48)
• Extended Holiday Sales: Revenue is often spread more evenly across early and mid-holiday, not just BF/CM itself.
  • “It's not just through Black Friday. It's actually through, like our holiday sale too.” — Sam (00:10, 54:19)

2. Sale Layering & Pacing Strategies

• Mini-Sales and Early Launches: Both HexClad and Ridge start sales earlier than ever, adding new “layers” (exclusive inventory, niche SKUs, doorbusters).
  • “We're almost constantly adding new layers to the sale.” — Connor (00:02, 13:00)
  • “We're launching it a week early just to have a full week to really focus on those.” — Sam (11:34)
• “Doorbuster” & Exclusive Offers:
  • Ridge will run steep, time-limited discounts (ex: $295 wallet at $99 for 24 hours) as an urgency lever. (14:47)
  • “We've got some very expensive wallets, 24 karat gold... we'll take a $295 wallet down to $99...it's super urgency driven...we're going to get them in the door and then they're going to come in and they're going to buy many other things.” — Connor (14:47)

3. Ad Strategy: Warmup & Top of Funnel

• Heavy Pre-BF/CM Spend: All hosts advocate frontloading spend in early/mid-November—before costs skyrocket and ROAS lifts.
  • “We should be significantly more aggressive leading up to it and actually not spend that much Black Friday weekend.”— Cody (00:26, 27:19)
  • “Our ROAS lift was over 300% [mid-month]... grew from like, if we were at a 1, it grew to like a 3x.” — Sam (27:28)
• Filling the Funnel: Brands pour budget into YouTube & podcasts to build awareness and email lists—despite the difficulty in perfectly projecting the downstream effect.
  • “We're spending like 30k a day on YouTube right now, which is, like, big for us.” — Cody (22:32)
  • “We're seeing queries for Ridge Wallet up 20% year over year… that's a pretty good leading indicator” — Connor (23:49)
• Incrementality & Attribution: Extensive use of geo-lift, holdout, and incrementality tests on YouTube, CTV, Pinterest, etc., to guide real-time media budgeting and for future learning.
  • “We're running incrementality tests… set budgets as optimally as possible at the start of our sale.” — Connor (30:34)
  • “We have two… scale up tests on YouTube and CTV… to get the most accurate read on these channels.” — Sam (32:09)

4. Forecasting & Pacing Methodologies

• Rolling Forecasts: Revisiting and revising revenue targets at least monthly, factoring in recent cohort performance, ad spend, AOV, and seasonality.
  • “You're reforecasting revenue at the beginning of every month to be as accurate as possible.” — Connor (20:33)
  • “We have a daily revenue, daily spend, daily mer, daily AM, daily contribution margin, daily CAC, daily AOV, daily number new customers daily new customer revenue, daily repeat customer revenue.” — Cody (45:02)
• Pacing Sheets & Visualization: Sophisticated spreadsheets—often daily—track revenue and spend versus target, using last year's data as a baseline and adjusting for sale timing or new tactics.
  • “We're looking at like percent of revenue and spend by period for, from last year first...then we'll come in and we'll fudge it up or down for this year.” — Sam (40:19)
  • “We just have a daily forecast...daily spend revenue, new customer revenue, repeat customer revenue...” — Cody (44:46)
• The Importance of “The Curve”: More important than daily precision is understanding and communicating the overall revenue/spend curve for the month(s), especially to leadership.
  • “We just are trying to get the general curve down. Like we don't need to spend an additional 20 hours in here trying to get it like perfect to the hundred dollars.” — Sam (56:03)

5. Holiday Shipping & Cutoff Strategy

• Staggered Shipping Offers: Extend revenue window by offering free express shipping post-standard cutoff, communicated urgently via email/SMS, to keep sales high until the last possible day.
  • “We move to free express shipping and we begin reducing spend…driving urgency around that just to again like extend the period of time that we can capture some of that volume.” — Connor (66:47)
• Retail & Marketplaces as Last-Mile: After DTC cutoffs, push Amazon/retail/BOPIS (e.g., Best Buy, Verizon) for incremental last-minute gains.
  • “We drive to Amazon…Best Buy and Verizon…just trying to like eke out all this value at the very end…” — Connor (65:34)
• Late-December Remains Critical:
  • “…early December up until mid December is almost just as make or break as anything else.” — Connor (59:25)
  • “We even pass the cutoffs…we stay pretty strong until like right around Christmas.” — Cody (59:32)

6. Q5 and Post-Holiday (“Q5 Halo”)

• “Q5” (Dec 25-Jan 1 and into New Year) is characterized by dropping CPMs, continued demand around gifting, and an opportunity for efficient spend—though not all brands spin up new offers, many simply keep holiday sales running.
  • “We just keep…our same holiday offer through the end of the year, and then shift into…New Year. New. You type messages…” — Sam (70:13)
  • “I think it's probably more just like, being ready with…inventory and spend…if performance looks good, just like, being. Being prepared, don't let it catch you by surprise.” — Cody (70:37)

7. Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Sale Layering:
  • “We're almost constantly adding new layers to the sale. It feels like every year the saturation point has to be increased one way or another.” — Connor (00:02)
• On Realistic Revenue Peaks:
  • “It's a ton of net revenue, but the. I mean, the bulk of our. The bulk of our revenue is coming, you know, in the. In the period leading up to Thanksgiving and then the period following Cyber Monday headed into the shipping cutoff for holiday.” — Sam (53:59)
• On Forecasting Curves:
  • “We just are trying to get the general curve down. Like we don't need to…get it perfect to the hundred dollars. Like just get the general curve down and like that's 95% of what you need this pacing sheet to do for you.” — Sam (56:03)
• On Growth Mindset:
  • “Just feels like a lot of growth each year is just figuring out, like, tiny new things that you can layer into…just eke out a little bit more value.” — Connor (68:10)
• On Last-Minute Pushes:
  • “We see a really big period right around Christmas because people are presumably opening up their new iPhones and then need a case. So I think we're getting the opportunity to do some more like category specific messaging that is more seasonally relevant.” — Connor (71:31)

8. Tools Mentioned

• Motion – Used by all hosts for creative analysis and rapid, data-led ad iteration.
• North Beam – Used for ROAS lift analysis, revenue-lag, and attribution modeling.
• Prescient AI – Media mix modeling & spend distribution tool.
• Rich Panel – Customer support automation, enabling leaner scale.
• Revo – Retention/loyalty suite focused on signed-in shopping.
• Aftersell – Post-purchase upsell & AOV optimization platform.

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:00–05:00 — Black Friday’s shrinking proportion of holiday revenue; sale duration trends.
• 07:00–09:00 — How brands leverage Motion for creative/ad optimization.
• 09:03–13:00 — “Headspace” in early November & detailed sale calendars.
• 14:47–18:15 — Doorbuster strategies & product-specific anchors in ads.
• 20:33–25:27 — Forecasting methods and dynamic reforecasting based on pacing and cohort data.
• 27:19–29:25 — Using ROAS lift and revenue lag to optimize pre-BF/CM spend.
• 30:34–32:09 — Geo-lift & incrementality testing to optimize media mix.
• 35:41–41:48 — Connor’s forecasting + pacing “sheet” walkthrough.
• 44:46–45:32 — Daily level cohort and revenue forecasting by customer type.
• 53:30–56:45 — Percentage of revenue on Black Friday, and how spending & pace reflects that.
• 58:40–68:21 — Shipping cutoff strategies, express promotions, and last-mile retail/marketplace plays.
• 69:22–74:10 — Q5 approaches, TV/media tactics, and new year pivots.

Flow, Takeaways, and Tone

The episode is packed—delivered with the dry humor, candor, and tactical specificity of three senior operators sharing internal playbooks with peers. There is a friendly rivalry and a focus on data (and some gentle confession about "fudging" assumptions when appropriate). The recurring theme: growth comes not from reinventing the wheel, but from consistent, granular execution and compounding insight year to year.

For Marketers Planning Holiday 2025

• Expect Black Friday/Cyber Monday to capture attention—not all your sales. Spreading your sales, and using urgency moments, layered offers, and creative rotation is key.
• Front-load and sequence your spend, if data shows higher pre-event ROAS lift. If your historical “revenue lag/ROAS lift” data supports it, shift budgets earlier in November.
• Test top-of-funnel channels and use incrementality tests to inform decision-making. You won’t know exact impact, but signals like search query volume and geo-lift are highly useful.
• Forecast at the daily level, and communicate using charts/curves for non-marketing leadership. It’s more important to capture the shape of the revenue curve than to master every decimal.
• Maximize post-shipping-cutoff opportunities. Leverage express shipping, DTC offers, then direct to retail/Amazon for last-minute urgency—and keep messaging fresh for Q5/January.

Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “We should be significantly more aggressive leading up to it and actually not spend that much Black Friday weekend.” — Cody (00:26)
• “So much of it comes down to just driving the click through rate or the response rate that gets someone to your site in an affordable way.” — Connor (18:15)
• “We just are trying to get the general curve down. Like…that’s 95% of what you need this pacing sheet to do for you.” — Sam (56:03)
• “Each year is just figuring out, like, tiny new things that you can layer into…just eke out a little bit more value.” — Connor (68:10)
• “We're seeing queries for Ridge Wallet up 20% year over year… that's a pretty good leading indicator. — Connor (23:49)
• "We're almost constantly adding new layers to the sale. It feels like every year the saturation point has to be increased one way or another." — Connor (00:02)

This episode is your practical playbook for holiday ecommerce execution, heavy on actionable insights and with a healthy respect for the role of both art and science in high-stakes retail marketing.