Podcast Summary: Marketing Operators – Ep. 91

Title: Setting 2026 Goals, Incrementality Lessons from BFCM and Amazon Brand Bidding
Hosts: Connor Rolain, Connor MacDonald, Cody Plofker
Date: December 23, 2025

Overview

This episode dives deep into year-end and forward-looking planning for high-growth brands, with candid discussions around 2026 goal-setting frameworks, key post-BFCM incrementality lessons, the ongoing complexities of brand bidding (especially on Amazon), and emergent tools like Shopify Sidekick. The hosts share practical, sometimes granular, approaches to org design, testing, marketing measurement, and adapting to the AI-infused ecosystem, all in the context of the operator’s seat at scaling DTC businesses.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Shopify Winter Editions & Sidekick’s Evolving Role

Discussion Begins: [00:00] | In-depth Product Analysis at [06:43]

• Shopify Sidekick is transforming from a data assistant (“data democratization”) into a full-featured, proactive, chat-driven agent that empowers non-technical users throughout Shopify’s admin.
• The democratization of data makes previously complex, technical reporting and analytics more accessible to every operator.
• Notably, AI-driven analytics and gen AI creative features are being rapidly built out, with integrations for workflow automation, creative generation, and even AB/theme testing now natively within Shopify.

Quotes:

• “There's too much data in today's digital marketing ecosystem to the point where it kind of paralyzes a lot of marketers. ... Sidekick is democratizing data and the ability to pull the information you want and then action it quickly.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [07:50]
• “Sidekick clearly just being like the chat interface to like all the tasks you need to do as a, as a… SMB Ecomm brand. But I just, I was surprised at how powerful they're making it.”
  — Connor Rolain, [10:07]

Tactical Perspective

• Used Sidekick for cohort analysis, quick campaign reporting, and recurring team training.
• Tools like Motion’s AI Tagging for creative analysis are reducing the manual burden of reporting ([05:24]).

Incrementality Lessons from BFCM – Real-World Testing

Discussion Begins: [20:36]

• Ridge ran a scaled, geographically split Facebook (Meta) ad spend test during BFCM to determine true incrementality of holiday spend.
• Key Learning: Scaling up ad spend by 50% over BAU (business as usual) was clearly profitable and incremental; scaling by 100% produced no profitable incremental lift, with high confidence intervals.
• Takeaway: Critical to not over-scale purely based on seasonal demand. There’s a sweet spot where incremental spend becomes unprofitable—even during the highest-earning periods.

Quotes:

• “It's really easy to scale up ad spend, still have a great mer, but that additional ad spend actually didn't drive any incremental profit.”
  — Connor Rolain, [20:56]
• “You found that sweet spot… next year you can use to flight your budget. …We're going to scale up 50% from the prior period headed into this peak moment. Not 100%.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [22:52]
• “I respect the confidence to run it during that week… because I think I've always felt like, hey, we don't want to miss out on opportunities or, like, it's not the time. So I think that's awesome and great.”
  — Cody Plofker, [23:39]

Postmortem & Generalizing Learnings

• Similar tests run on other brands and geographies showed reproducible results ([25:45]).
• Emphasis on retesting, conservative scaling, and not generalizing from a single product/category.

Amazon Brand Bidding – A Costly Competitive Reality

Discussion Begins: [31:13]

• Amazon increasingly bids on brand terms—sometimes outbidding actual brands during BFCM and on generic queries, with aggressive promotions outpacing brands' own sales.
• This often shifts sales volume from DTC to Amazon, distorting year-over-year results and misaligning internal forecasts.

Quotes:

• “Amazon was performing significantly above their original forecast and goals … Amazon had more aggressive promo messaging in those search ads … than what the brand was running for their Black Friday sale.”
  — Connor Rolain, [31:13]
• “Amazon was outbidding us on our own branded terms… We made a fuss about it to our Amazon reps … they are doing it way less now.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [33:29]

Strategies & Adjustments

• Some brands push back with their Amazon reps for relief.
• Others shift spend and increase vigilance on both on- and off-Amazon brand terms.
• Growth teams pair search analysis with incrementality testing across platforms to guide allocation.

Brand Search Incrementality: Is Bidding on Your Own Brand Really Worth It?

Discussion: [26:44], [28:44]

• Multiple tests showed almost no incrementality in brand search campaigns, even during heavy promo periods:
  • Shutting off branded paid search saw 66% of paid brand search traffic move to organic with “no discernible revenue impact.”
  • Heavy monitoring recommended during promos, but otherwise, often unprofitable.

Quote:

• “Almost no incrementality. Even during the same… It was like a $700 cost per new. And then like even, even total was like, you know, it's like tiny bit incremental, but like, barely.”
  — Cody Plofker, [28:24]

2026 (and Beyond) Planning: Frameworks, Org Design, and Execution

Discussion Begins: [35:57] (especially deep dive at [49:02])

Annual Planning Approaches

• Hybrid financial, strategic, and org plan:
  • Projections by channel, cohort, new/repeat, inventory.
  • “14 big rocks”/cornerstones/objectives with responsible owners.
• Strong alignment between executive vision and functional heads, but practical annual plans are recast quarterly based on learnings and new data.
• The process is fluid—long-term goals (2–3 year timelines) are shaped by near-term tactical needs and sometimes decided months ahead of “calendar” deadlines.

Quotes:

• “I got essentially 14 big rocks, 14 things that we're really going to focus on and change. Org plan. Here's who we're going to need to do it… Then financial plan. Then it goes into a budget for us. It's like, all right, if this goes successful, here's the capital investment.”
  — Cody Plofker, [36:15]
• “You need to have your hiring plans dialed in, at least having some semblance of what your budget is… 2025 recapping done… really understand what the data points say about your business.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [40:37]

Strategic Goal-Setting Tools

• Pyramid of Clarity (from Asana): Mission > Strategic Filters > Objectives > Initiatives ([49:02]).
• Objectives often intentionally span multiple teams/channels, building cross-functional accountability.
• Owners for each “big rock”; project managers supplement to run cross-functional cadences.

Quotes:

• “I think the best objectives actually do span multiple channels... You’re assigning per channel and now you have like really strong tactics that ladder into this overarching objective that spills into… different channels.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [62:48]
• “We have, you know, we use after sale in our, in our post purchase upsell… My VP Commerce is like, hey, you are tasked with finding opportunities to expand margin. Here’s five ideas. The main one here is let’s make more profit off current dollars.”
  — Connor Rolain, [53:11]

Real-World “Big Rocks” Examples

• Become customer obsessed: Establish customer advisory panels, systematic feedback via Facebook groups and surveys ([57:17]).
• Become creator focused: Building internal studios, hiring a chief creator officer, TikTok shop rollout, expanding affiliates, integrating creators in organic & paid.
• Aggressively scale owned retail: Opening 15+ physical stores.
• Margin expansion: Testing shipping thresholds, price testing bundles, post-purchase upsell optimization.
• Organizational structure: Assigning KPIs and responsibilities, with project management paired to C-suite or VP “owners.”

Quotes:

• “If you're making all your decisions based on customer feedback, it's going to be hard to lose… Same thing with creators—if you're just working with a high volume of creators and really infusing them into your DNA, you're going to be better off.”
  — Cody Plofker, [57:17]
• “That's what builds our finance and then per each channel… Ecom, I want to test 10 CRO things a month or rebuild our quiz… the supporting things that ladder up into the big rocks but sometimes are tangential.”
  — Cody Plofker, [57:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Sidekick is democratizing data… empowering non technical people to be really good at data.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [07:50]
• “I don't think these AI data things are perfect… there is some hallucination. You just gotta really know your numbers and validate it.”
  — Cody Plofker, [11:07]
• “Almost no incrementality. Even during the same… It was like a $700 cost per new. ...Do not let me run another brand [search test].”
  — Cody Plofker, [28:24]
• “Amazon had more aggressive promo messaging in those search ads… higher than the brand was running for their Black Friday sale.”
  — Connor Rolain, [31:13]
• “We have like a constellation of stars that you're trying to work with. …That's what this is. Like we've got two that we can kind of use to guide ourselves…”
  — Connor Rolain, [26:27]
• “We have our mission, our strategy filters (e.g., only plant seeds that can grow into giants), then objectives, and then you layer your initiatives underneath.”
  — Connor MacDonald, [49:02]
• “The process is fluid… annual plans are recast quarterly based on learnings.”
  — Connor Rolain, [48:07]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Shopify Sidekick, Data Democratization: [00:00], [06:43]
• AI Tagging & Creative Analytics: [05:24]
• Incrementality Testing BFCM: [20:36]
• Brand Search Incrementality Lessons: [26:44], [28:44]
• Amazon Brand Bidding Dynamics: [31:13], [33:29]
• 2026 Planning, Org Design, Big Rocks: [35:57], [49:02], [56:46]
• Cross-Functional Execution & Project Management: [64:46]

Tone & Style

Candid, in-the-trenches operator conversation. Heavy on real-world examples, testing frameworks, and decision criteria. The hosts are direct, humorous (with recurring in-jokes about “conjoined triangles of success” and food rating debates), and focused on actionable processes.

Conclusion

This episode provides a masterclass in DTC operator decision-making—balancing rapid experimentation (incrementality tests, brand bidding analysis) with long-view strategic planning (“big rocks,” Pyramid of Clarity, cross-org cadence). It’s a transparent view into how some of the industry’s top operators and growth leaders are using data, AI, and rigorous frameworks to prioritize for growth, all while acknowledging the unpredictable realities of e-commerce.