Podcast Summary: Marketing Operators – Episode 100: Why Great Marketers Think Like Data Scientists, with Eric Seufert

Introduction and Reflections on the Meta Summit

The episode begins with Cody Plofker, Connor Rolain, and Connor MacDonald warmly welcoming Eric Seufert to the podcast. The trio expresses their enthusiasm about Eric's insightful keynote at the recent Meta Summit.

• Cody [00:00]: "Thanks for joining, Eric. We met at the Meta Summit and I think right away me, Cody and Connor all looked at each other. We're like, we gotta get this guy on the podcast."
• Eric [01:13]: Reflects on his experience at the Meta Summit, highlighting the anticipation buildup and the value of an unscripted Q&A session.

Eric Seufert's Professional Background and Expertise

Eric delves into his career trajectory, starting from his analytical role at Skype to his fascination with the freemium business model. He discusses his transition into mobile gaming analytics and his eventual move into venture funding.

• Eric [09:50]: "So first of all, thanks for having me. I spent kind of the first part of my career just as an operator... And then I spun up like an investment syndicate that I ended up turning into a full-fledged venture fund."

Unit Economics in Freemium Mobile Gaming vs. D2C

The conversation shifts to the differences in unit economics between freemium mobile games and direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands. Eric explains the challenges in monetizing users in the gaming sector, emphasizing the reliance on a small percentage of high-value players, often referred to as "whales."

• Cody [15:06]: "What are the unit economics you see on the freemium mobile game lifecycle... what's the average lifetime value over 12, 24 months?"
• Eric [15:43]: "With mobile gaming though, the difference is 2%, 1% will ever monetize... you really need this small group of high-value players."

Advertising Strategies in Mobile Gaming – Discord as a Platform

Eric discusses his advisory role at Discord, focusing on the platform's unique advertising ecosystem tailored for gamers. He highlights the distinction between traditional display advertising and incentivized advertising, which offers rewards to users for engaging with ads.

• Cody [23:16]: "I wanted to ask about Discord a little bit because I see that you're an advisor at Discord advising their mobile advertising platform strategy..."
• Eric [23:43]: "The concept with ads is like how could you implement ads in a way that it's actually really beneficial to the end user."

Measurement Techniques: Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Measurement

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to understanding the differences between deterministic and probabilistic measurement in marketing analytics. Eric elucidates how deterministic methods rely on unique identifiers for precise tracking, while probabilistic approaches use statistical models to infer user behavior.

• Cody [31:19]: "What are the differences between deterministic measurement and probabilistic measurement?"
• Eric [31:34]: "Deterministic measurement is essentially just this idea that you've got some identifier... Probabilistic is you don't have that certainty..."

Incrementality Testing and Media Mix Modeling

The hosts delve into advanced measurement techniques like incrementality testing and media mix modeling (MMM). Eric emphasizes the importance of using a combination of tools to gain a comprehensive understanding of marketing performance, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on any single method.

• Cody [55:16]: Discusses running geo lift studies and the challenge of applying incrementality results across different time periods.
• Eric [56:11]: "You need all of it. Like yes, use the Triple R and Northbeam, definitely... you need a broad set of tools..."

Creative Strategies and Signal Engineering for Advertising

The discussion transitions to the role of creative strategies in advertising. Eric advocates for "signal engineering," where marketers design up-funnel events that better correlate with actual conversions. He underscores the necessity of optimizing creative processes to generate meaningful user signals rather than merely focusing on incremental creative variations.

• Cody [72:02]: Shares experiences with optimizing quiz completions and product page views to attract high-intent users.
• Eric [76:02]: "That's the strategy now that's what marketers have to be able to do... signal engineering."

Discussion on Meta's AI Strategies in Advertising Platforms

Towards the end of the episode, the conversation touches upon Meta's investment in AI infrastructure for advertising. Eric provides insights into how Meta leverages AI for creative optimization and the implications for marketers striving to maximize ad performance.

• Eric [62:32]: "The big takeaway is just how much money they've invested into building that infrastructure... you could mistrust Advantage Plus but there's no way."
• Cody [85:14]: Reflects on targeting challenges and creative optimization strategies with Meta's AI-driven tools.

Key Takeaways and Conclusions

• Holistic Measurement Approach: Relying on a combination of deterministic and probabilistic measurement tools provides a more accurate and actionable understanding of marketing performance.

• Incrementality Testing: Regular and diverse incrementality tests are crucial for adapting to changing market conditions and understanding the true impact of various marketing channels.

• Signal Engineering: Crafting user engagement events that accurately signal intent can significantly enhance the effectiveness of AI-driven advertising strategies.

• Creative Evolution: Continuous and radical experimentation with creative strategies is essential to break free from local maxima and discover more impactful advertising approaches.

• Adaptation to AI-Driven Platforms: Embracing the advancements in AI infrastructure, as demonstrated by platforms like Meta, is necessary for marketers to stay competitive and optimize their campaigns effectively.

Notable Quotes:

• Eric [03:54]: "I really felt like sort of adamant about that. And to their credit... they did allow for Q&A."

• Eric [15:43]: "With mobile gaming though, the difference is 2%, 1% will ever monetize."

• Eric [31:34]: "Probabilistic is you don't have that certainty... it's around like, you probably heard the term like cultural determinism."

• Eric [51:33]: "There's no way you could do better... Just accept it. We're never going back to what it was."

• Eric [76:02]: "That's the strategy now that's what marketers have to be able to do. I mean, that's the job now is signal engineering."

Conclusion

In this engaging episode, Eric Seufert provides a deep dive into the intersection of marketing and data science, offering valuable insights into measurement techniques, advertising strategies, and the evolving role of AI in marketing platforms. His expertise, combined with the hosts' probing questions, makes this a must-listen for marketers aiming to leverage data-driven strategies to optimize their campaigns and drive meaningful results.