2026 has its first new tariff threat

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report: "2026 Has Its First New Tariff Threat"

Date: January 13, 2026
Host: Sabree Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the first major international economic policy move of 2026—a new 25% U.S. tariff on countries "doing business with Iran," as announced by President Trump. The show breaks down what this means for global trade, with particular focus on U.S.–China relations, and provides insights into U.S. inflation data, top global risks for the year (according to Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer), and the geopolitical implications of technological and energy policy competition.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New U.S. Tariff Announcement (00:01–01:04)

• Headline: President Trump announces a 25% tariff on goods from countries trading with Iran, citing human rights abuses by the Iranian government.
• Countries Affected: Notably, China, India, and Turkey—all major buyers of Iranian oil. This raises stakes, especially with China, given ongoing tariff-related tensions.
• Expert View (Jeremy Bowen, BBC):
  • It’s a “complex” situation as China is already the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and entangled in a tense trade situation with the U.S.
  • Quote:

    "Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? ... It's already a very delicate negotiation." — Jeremy Bowen (00:35)

2. Upcoming CPI Inflation Data (01:04–02:28)

• News Preview: December’s Consumer Price Index report is anticipated soon.
• Expectations:
  • Inflation expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target, with predictions of 2.7% year-over-year from major banks.
  • Impact of Government Shutdown: Data distortions likely due to the recent government shutdown, potentially understating November inflation and inflating December figures.
• Contextual Note:
  • Tariffs’ costs may continue to be passed to consumers in 2026, affecting price stability.
  • Quote:

    “Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year.” — Nancy Marshall-Genser (01:19)

3. Top Global Risks for 2026—Eurasia Group Report

Guest: Ian Bremmer, founder and president, Eurasia Group (02:28–05:49)

a. Primary Global Risk: The U.S. Itself (02:43–03:18)

• Key Insight:
  • The #1 global risk is the instability and unpredictability of U.S. politics and its changing role in the world—more so than U.S.–China or U.S.–Russia tensions.
• Quote:

  “The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and for others around the world, unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.” — Ian Bremmer (02:55)

b. Shift from Rules-Based to Power-Based World Order (03:18–04:16)

• Context:
  • U.S. retreating from traditional roles—free trade, collective security—and moving toward unilateral, short-term wins.
  • Long-term Impact: Not sustainable; disrupts global norms.
• Quote:

  “The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins ... But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.” — Ian Bremmer (03:29)

c. U.S.–China: Competing on Climate and Technology (04:16–04:55)

• China’s Bet: Massive investment in renewables (e.g., a 162-square-mile solar farm).
• U.S. Position: Current administration not prioritizing renewables.
• Risks: Strategic consequences for lagging in next-gen technology and energy.
• Quote:

  “Long term, this is a big and smart strategic bet for the Chinese that the Americans are not competing with.” — Ian Bremmer (04:27)

d. AI and Societal Risks (04:55–05:49)

• Key Point: AI’s risks in 2026 stem from the pressure to commercialize technology before its implications are understood—potentially destabilizing business models.
• Quote:

  “You're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries. You wouldn't do that with the vaccine, even during a pandemic… And that I think is a danger.” — Ian Bremmer (05:13)

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Notable Quotes

• “Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? It's already a very delicate negotiation.”
  — Jeremy Bowen, BBC (00:35)

• “Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser (01:19)

• “The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it set up and it's also challenging its own political system.”
  — Ian Bremmer (02:55)

• “The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins … But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.”
  — Ian Bremmer (03:29)

• “You're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries … And that I think is a danger.”
  — Ian Bremmer (05:13)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:01 — New U.S. tariff threat on Iran’s trade partners
• 00:35 — BBC analysis on U.S.–China trade ramifications
• 01:19 — CPI preview and impact of government shutdown on inflation data
• 02:28 — Introduction to Eurasia Group's global risk assessment
• 02:55 — Ian Bremmer: U.S. is the top global risk for 2026
• 03:29 — Discussion: U.S. shift away from rules-based order
• 04:27 — China’s solar investment and U.S. response
• 05:13 — AI business models threatening social stability in 2026

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Episode Tone

• Concise, analytical, and urgent—focusing on pivotal shifts in global politics and economics.
• Features expert commentary (BBC, Eurasia Group) for international perspective and gravitas.

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This summary omits the episode’s outro, advertisements, and promotions, focusing strictly on news content and analysis.

Transcript

[Sabree Benishore]

2026 has its first new tariff threat from Marketplace. I'm Sabree Benishore in for David Brancaccio. President Trump in a post on social media said he is imposing a 25% tariff on goods from countries, quote, doing business with Iran. This is in response to Iran's government imprisoning and killing protesters. The countries that buy Iranian oil include India, Turkey and the world's second largest economy, China, which has a tenuous trade TRUCE with the U.S. here's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen.

[Jeremy Bowen]

It's going to be complex at the very least. Here's an example. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. He's in a very delicate trade situation already with their trade tariff war between America and China. Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? It's already a very delicate negotiation. The thing about Iran is you cannot ignore it in the Middle east or in the wider world. Why is that? It's very big. It's got the oil, it's got the gas.

[Sabree Benishore]

That's the BBC's Jeremy Bowen there. Later this morning in about an hour and a half, we're going to get the Consumer Price Index for December. That's one official measure of inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser has more on what we can expect.

[Nancy Marshall Genser]

Economists expect the December report to show inflation still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Economists at both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Predict Inflation rose 2.7% year over year. Distortions from the government shutdown are expected to affect the December cpi. Federal agencies didn't reopen until the middle of November. That meant government workers were out checking prices just as holiday discounts were hitting stores. That likely led to an understating of goods inflation in November, which could make December prices artificially higher. Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year. We could also see the cost of tariffs continue to be passed on to consumers. I'm Nancy Marshall Genser for Marketplace.

[Sabree Benishore]

It is a new year and with it comes fresh new ways for the world to be in crisis. The Eurasia Group takes a look at this every year and comes up with a list of top global risks for the year ahead. Joining us to talk about it is co author and Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer. Ian, welcome back.

[Ian Bremmer]

Good to be back with you.

[Sabree Benishore]

So the number one Global risk in 2026 is not the tensions between the US and China or Russia, you argue the number one risk is, is the US Itself.

[Ian Bremmer]

Why? Because the US is the most powerful country in the world and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it set up and it's also challenging its own political system. The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and for others around the world, unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.

[Sabree Benishore]

If the US is recreating a world order not based so much on rules, but just on strength in particular, is that an actual risk or a change?

[Ian Bremmer]

Well, it's both. Even though the United States is much more powerful than China, Xi Jinping is much less constrained and much more powerful as an executive authority than President Trump is. And so there's a reason why the United States felt for generations that it benefited from setting up an abiding bond by a lot of these rules like free trade architecture and collective security and the promotion of democracy and rule of law. The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short term wins against say Venezuela and Nicolas Maduro, or Denmark and Greenland. But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.

[Sabree Benishore]

President Trump is not a fan of renewables. China Meanwhile, is building 162 square mile solar farm. What is the risk there when we.

[Ian Bremmer]

Talk about solar and wind and nuclear? Those are 21st century technologies, the prices of which are coming down exponentially as the technology improves. And given that, that is what's powering not just the ability to feed your population, but also the commanding heights of artificial intelligence. Long term, this is a big and smart strategic bet for the Chinese that the Americans are not competing with AI.

[Sabree Benishore]

There's of course the risk that we're in a bubble or AI will take our jobs. But that is not quite the risk you see. Rather, it's that AI companies under pressure will adopt business models in 2026 that threaten social and political stability. What does that mean?

[Ian Bremmer]

As you are spending enormous amounts of money on consumer AI and the business model doesn't yet justify it, there's going to be more pressure to commercialize that tech. And when the tech that's being used is trying to maximize engagement with the average American, essentially you're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries. You wouldn't do that with the vaccine, even during a pandemic. You wouldn't do it with genetically modified food, even though people are starving. And that I think is a danger.

[Sabree Benishore]

Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group. Thank you so much.

[Ian Bremmer]

Always great to be with Marketplace.

[Sabree Benishore]

Our producers are Emma Condon, Tamar Fagan, Ashley Rodriguez, Ariana Rosas, and Erica Soderstrom. Our senior producer is Alex Schroeder. Our supervising senior producer is Meredith Garrettson. Morby in New York. Sarai I'm Sabri Benishore with the Marketplace Morning Report. From APM American Public Media.

[David Brancaccio]

Hey, it's David Brancaccio, host of the Marketplace Morning Report. It has been one year since the costliest set of wildfires in California history, U.S. history, and by at least one calculation, the history of the world. 16,000 structures were destroyed, most of them homes. I can quote your figures about insured versus uninsured losses measured in billions. But as people in the fire zones face year two, we go from macro to micro. I'm checking in with the neighbors on one street in Altadena where 15 homes were destroyed on a single block. These are my own neighbors. I lost a home on that street, too. Join us for on the ground reporting as we hear from people still dealing with insurance, getting permits, finding contractors. One guy had to go through 30 contractors to find one with the right skills he could afford. Plus, for most, rebuilding is taking years. How do people find the money to live elsewhere? Listen to the Marketplace Morning Report using your favorite podcast.

[Ian Bremmer]

Applause.