Marketplace Morning Report: "2026 Has Its First New Tariff Threat"

Date: January 13, 2026
Host: Sabree Benishore (in for David Brancaccio)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the first major international economic policy move of 2026—a new 25% U.S. tariff on countries "doing business with Iran," as announced by President Trump. The show breaks down what this means for global trade, with particular focus on U.S.–China relations, and provides insights into U.S. inflation data, top global risks for the year (according to Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer), and the geopolitical implications of technological and energy policy competition.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. New U.S. Tariff Announcement (00:01–01:04)

• Headline: President Trump announces a 25% tariff on goods from countries trading with Iran, citing human rights abuses by the Iranian government.
• Countries Affected: Notably, China, India, and Turkey—all major buyers of Iranian oil. This raises stakes, especially with China, given ongoing tariff-related tensions.
• Expert View (Jeremy Bowen, BBC):
  • It’s a “complex” situation as China is already the biggest buyer of Iranian oil and entangled in a tense trade situation with the U.S.
  • Quote:

    "Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? ... It's already a very delicate negotiation." — Jeremy Bowen (00:35)

2. Upcoming CPI Inflation Data (01:04–02:28)

• News Preview: December’s Consumer Price Index report is anticipated soon.
• Expectations:
  • Inflation expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target, with predictions of 2.7% year-over-year from major banks.
  • Impact of Government Shutdown: Data distortions likely due to the recent government shutdown, potentially understating November inflation and inflating December figures.
• Contextual Note:
  • Tariffs’ costs may continue to be passed to consumers in 2026, affecting price stability.
  • Quote:

    “Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year.” — Nancy Marshall-Genser (01:19)

3. Top Global Risks for 2026—Eurasia Group Report

Guest: Ian Bremmer, founder and president, Eurasia Group (02:28–05:49)

a. Primary Global Risk: The U.S. Itself (02:43–03:18)

• Key Insight:
  • The #1 global risk is the instability and unpredictability of U.S. politics and its changing role in the world—more so than U.S.–China or U.S.–Russia tensions.
• Quote:

  “The level of uncertainty, unpredictability, and for others around the world, unreliability that that presents is really unprecedented.” — Ian Bremmer (02:55)

b. Shift from Rules-Based to Power-Based World Order (03:18–04:16)

• Context:
  • U.S. retreating from traditional roles—free trade, collective security—and moving toward unilateral, short-term wins.
  • Long-term Impact: Not sustainable; disrupts global norms.
• Quote:

  “The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins ... But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.” — Ian Bremmer (03:29)

c. U.S.–China: Competing on Climate and Technology (04:16–04:55)

• China’s Bet: Massive investment in renewables (e.g., a 162-square-mile solar farm).
• U.S. Position: Current administration not prioritizing renewables.
• Risks: Strategic consequences for lagging in next-gen technology and energy.
• Quote:

  “Long term, this is a big and smart strategic bet for the Chinese that the Americans are not competing with.” — Ian Bremmer (04:27)

d. AI and Societal Risks (04:55–05:49)

• Key Point: AI’s risks in 2026 stem from the pressure to commercialize technology before its implications are understood—potentially destabilizing business models.
• Quote:

  “You're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries. You wouldn't do that with the vaccine, even during a pandemic… And that I think is a danger.” — Ian Bremmer (05:13)

Notable Quotes

• “Is he going to suddenly put a 25% tariff on China in addition to the other stuff they've been doing? It's already a very delicate negotiation.”
  — Jeremy Bowen, BBC (00:35)

• “Assumptions made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics about shelter costs during the shutdown kept the cost of rent artificially low. That's expected to correct itself this year.”
  — Nancy Marshall Genser (01:19)

• “The U.S. is the most powerful country in the world and it is undoing both its role in a global order that it set up and it's also challenging its own political system.”
  — Ian Bremmer (02:55)

• “The fact that the United States is now unilaterally turning against those things will certainly lead to some short-term wins … But in the long term, this is not a strategy for success.”
  — Ian Bremmer (03:29)

• “You're going to be testing these AI algorithms real time on the populations of our countries … And that I think is a danger.”
  — Ian Bremmer (05:13)

Important Timestamps

• 00:01 — New U.S. tariff threat on Iran’s trade partners
• 00:35 — BBC analysis on U.S.–China trade ramifications
• 01:19 — CPI preview and impact of government shutdown on inflation data
• 02:28 — Introduction to Eurasia Group's global risk assessment
• 02:55 — Ian Bremmer: U.S. is the top global risk for 2026
• 03:29 — Discussion: U.S. shift away from rules-based order
• 04:27 — China’s solar investment and U.S. response
• 05:13 — AI business models threatening social stability in 2026

Episode Tone

• Concise, analytical, and urgent—focusing on pivotal shifts in global politics and economics.
• Features expert commentary (BBC, Eurasia Group) for international perspective and gravitas.

This summary omits the episode’s outro, advertisements, and promotions, focusing strictly on news content and analysis.