Marketplace Morning Report

Episode Title: A closed federal government means no September jobs report
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

Episode Overview

This episode covers the effects of a partial U.S. federal government shutdown on crucial economic data releases—specifically the September jobs report—and examines how private sector data and new analytic efforts are filling the gap. The episode also dives into new research on self-employment, revealing millions of "hidden" entrepreneurs uncounted by official statistics. Notable contributors include economic analysts from the private sector, the Chicago Fed, and comments from small business owners.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. No Government Jobs Report Due to Shutdown

• Host David Brancaccio opens by explaining that the federal government shutdown has delayed two major economic reports: the job count and unemployment rate for September.
  • "The partial government shutdown now means that two of the top five most important readouts on the economy will not come out today as scheduled." (01:06)

Private Data as Stopgap

• Mark Hamrick (Bankrate):

  • Highlights reliance on private-sector data sources (ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas) in the absence of federal data.
  • "Mark Hamrick at Bankrate says it can't replace government data, but reports from private companies, including payroll processing firm ADP and outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, do give us glimpses into the labor market." (01:45)

• Angela Hanks (Century Foundation):

  • Agrees private data helps, but isn't a substitute for the breadth and depth of government data.
  • "Those data points, I think, are very consistent with what we've been seeing otherwise, and that is this is a low-hire, low-fire job market." (01:58)
  • Worries about missing nuance; for example, ADP predicts 32,000 jobs lost in September, but questions what isn’t captured by private reports.
    • "It's certainly cause for concern, but I think my curiosity is what are we missing from that report and what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?" (02:13)

New Analysis from the Chicago Fed

• Scott Brave (Chicago Fed):
  • Explains a new, twice-a-month composite labor market analysis combining over a dozen data sources: private, public, and alternative (such as Google job search trends).
  • For September, the data suggests "a little bit less job finding ... a little bit more job loss," but ultimately "not a whole lot has changed," including an unemployment rate estimate holding at 4.3%.
    • "For September, we see a little bit less job finding going on, we see a little bit more job loss, but on balance, not a— not a whole lot has changed, including the unemployment rate." (02:52)

2. Chevron Refinery Fire and California Gas Prices

• David Brancaccio reports that a fireball from an explosion at a Chevron refinery in El Segundo was quickly contained, with no injuries.
• It's unclear how the event will affect gas prices—already much higher in California ($4.64/gallon, 47% above the US average).
• Economists attribute California’s high gas prices not only to taxes but also to limited refinery capacity.
  • "The oil industry highlights gas taxes, but economists say lack of refinery capacity is a large part of that higher retail price." (03:10)

3. Under-Counted Entrepreneurs in the US Economy

Revisiting "A Nation of Entrepreneurs"

• Brancaccio references a new study revealing a massive undercount of US entrepreneurs, especially independent contractors and freelancers.
  • "Now there's new research suggesting we have been missing a a lot of entrepreneurs when we've tried to count them up." (04:52)

Key Findings from New Research

• Chris Farrell (Senior Economics Contributor):
  • There has been a surge in nonemployer businesses (independent contractors, solopreneurs, moonlighters).
  • Official labor statistics undercount them; instead of 15.3 million self-employed as per BLS, new research finds 33 million engaged in self-employment in 2019.
    • "There were 33 million people engaged in some form of self employment in 2019. Now, in sharp contrast, the bureau of Labor Statistics has calculated a total of 15.3 million self employed in 2019." (06:07)
    • "Let's repeat that number. The title of the paper is Business owners and the self employed: 33 million and counting." (06:37)

Entrepreneur Profile: Good Riddance Consulting

• Kalik Rogers (Founder, Minneapolis-based Good Riddance Consulting):
  • Describes his consulting business's work in convening stakeholders to design community-building strategies.
    • "I work with city government, county level, private business, people that want to go from good to greater, businesses that have good intentions but don't always have unintended impact." (07:04)
  • Example project: Helping fund school programs for construction trades training for low-income/at-risk students.
    • "What we do at Good Riddance is create that environment and that space to bring those stakeholders collectively together to create a outcome and a solution that is measurable, that is feasible to implement and practical." (07:33)

Multiple Ventures, Widening View of Entrepreneurship

• Farrell notes how many self-employed individuals simultaneously operate multiple businesses, often combining nonprofit and for-profit activities.
  • "Self employed, they operate multiple enterprises at the same time. For example, Rogers ... runs a nonprofit catalyst for systems change that works on youth development." (07:56)
• Economists hope these findings lead to a more "nuanced picture" of entrepreneurship's role in the U.S. economy.
  • "And what these economists are developing is a more nuanced picture of the many ways entrepreneurship plays out in America." (08:21)

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• David Brancaccio (on government statistics):
  • "No one does jobs data quite like the BLS." (01:40)
• Mark Hamrick (on data gaps):
  • "It can't replace government data, but reports from private companies ... do give us glimpses." (01:45)
• Angela Hanks (on private data):
  • "It's certainly cause for concern, but ... what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?" (02:13)
• Chris Farrell (on hidden entrepreneurs):
  • "There were 33 million people engaged in some form of self employment in 2019 ... half the new results." (06:07)
• Kalik Rogers (on impact):
  • "What we do at Good Riddance is create that environment and that space ... that is measurable, that is feasible to implement and practical." (07:33)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:06 — Host explains the immediate effects of the government shutdown on jobs data
• 01:45 — Discussion of private labor market data (Bankrate, ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas)
• 02:13 — Concerns about private data’s limitations (Angela Hanks)
• 02:52 — Chicago Fed's new analysis and September labor market estimates
• 03:10 — California refinery fire and implications for gasoline prices
• 04:52 — New research: Hidden entrepreneurs and self-employment data gaps
• 06:07 — The big statistic: 33 million self-employed, not 15 million
• 07:04 — Profile: Kalik Rogers and Good Riddance Consulting
• 07:56 — Discussion of multiple ventures and the evolving definition of entrepreneurship

Conclusion

This episode underscores how the absence of federal statistical reporting in a shutdown heightens the importance—and limitations—of private data. It also offers a revelatory look into the undercounting of America’s broad entrepreneurial landscape, profiling not just the numbers but the motivations and diverse impacts of modern self-employment.

Listeners come away with a real sense of both the fragility and adaptability of the systems Americans rely on to understand their economy.