A closed federal government means no September jobs report

Summary

Marketplace Morning Report

Episode Title: A closed federal government means no September jobs report
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Episode Overview

This episode covers the effects of a partial U.S. federal government shutdown on crucial economic data releases—specifically the September jobs report—and examines how private sector data and new analytic efforts are filling the gap. The episode also dives into new research on self-employment, revealing millions of "hidden" entrepreneurs uncounted by official statistics. Notable contributors include economic analysts from the private sector, the Chicago Fed, and comments from small business owners.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. No Government Jobs Report Due to Shutdown

• Host David Brancaccio opens by explaining that the federal government shutdown has delayed two major economic reports: the job count and unemployment rate for September.
  • "The partial government shutdown now means that two of the top five most important readouts on the economy will not come out today as scheduled." (01:06)

Private Data as Stopgap

• Mark Hamrick (Bankrate):

  • Highlights reliance on private-sector data sources (ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas) in the absence of federal data.
  • "Mark Hamrick at Bankrate says it can't replace government data, but reports from private companies, including payroll processing firm ADP and outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, do give us glimpses into the labor market." (01:45)

• Angela Hanks (Century Foundation):

  • Agrees private data helps, but isn't a substitute for the breadth and depth of government data.
  • "Those data points, I think, are very consistent with what we've been seeing otherwise, and that is this is a low-hire, low-fire job market." (01:58)
  • Worries about missing nuance; for example, ADP predicts 32,000 jobs lost in September, but questions what isn’t captured by private reports.
    • "It's certainly cause for concern, but I think my curiosity is what are we missing from that report and what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?" (02:13)

New Analysis from the Chicago Fed

• Scott Brave (Chicago Fed):
  • Explains a new, twice-a-month composite labor market analysis combining over a dozen data sources: private, public, and alternative (such as Google job search trends).
  • For September, the data suggests "a little bit less job finding ... a little bit more job loss," but ultimately "not a whole lot has changed," including an unemployment rate estimate holding at 4.3%.
    • "For September, we see a little bit less job finding going on, we see a little bit more job loss, but on balance, not a— not a whole lot has changed, including the unemployment rate." (02:52)

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2. Chevron Refinery Fire and California Gas Prices

• David Brancaccio reports that a fireball from an explosion at a Chevron refinery in El Segundo was quickly contained, with no injuries.
• It's unclear how the event will affect gas prices—already much higher in California ($4.64/gallon, 47% above the US average).
• Economists attribute California’s high gas prices not only to taxes but also to limited refinery capacity.
  • "The oil industry highlights gas taxes, but economists say lack of refinery capacity is a large part of that higher retail price." (03:10)

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3. Under-Counted Entrepreneurs in the US Economy

Revisiting "A Nation of Entrepreneurs"

• Brancaccio references a new study revealing a massive undercount of US entrepreneurs, especially independent contractors and freelancers.
  • "Now there's new research suggesting we have been missing a a lot of entrepreneurs when we've tried to count them up." (04:52)

Key Findings from New Research

• Chris Farrell (Senior Economics Contributor):
  • There has been a surge in nonemployer businesses (independent contractors, solopreneurs, moonlighters).
  • Official labor statistics undercount them; instead of 15.3 million self-employed as per BLS, new research finds 33 million engaged in self-employment in 2019.
    • "There were 33 million people engaged in some form of self employment in 2019. Now, in sharp contrast, the bureau of Labor Statistics has calculated a total of 15.3 million self employed in 2019." (06:07)
    • "Let's repeat that number. The title of the paper is Business owners and the self employed: 33 million and counting." (06:37)

Entrepreneur Profile: Good Riddance Consulting

• Kalik Rogers (Founder, Minneapolis-based Good Riddance Consulting):
  • Describes his consulting business's work in convening stakeholders to design community-building strategies.
    • "I work with city government, county level, private business, people that want to go from good to greater, businesses that have good intentions but don't always have unintended impact." (07:04)
  • Example project: Helping fund school programs for construction trades training for low-income/at-risk students.
    • "What we do at Good Riddance is create that environment and that space to bring those stakeholders collectively together to create a outcome and a solution that is measurable, that is feasible to implement and practical." (07:33)

Multiple Ventures, Widening View of Entrepreneurship

• Farrell notes how many self-employed individuals simultaneously operate multiple businesses, often combining nonprofit and for-profit activities.
  • "Self employed, they operate multiple enterprises at the same time. For example, Rogers ... runs a nonprofit catalyst for systems change that works on youth development." (07:56)
• Economists hope these findings lead to a more "nuanced picture" of entrepreneurship's role in the U.S. economy.
  • "And what these economists are developing is a more nuanced picture of the many ways entrepreneurship plays out in America." (08:21)

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Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• David Brancaccio (on government statistics):
  • "No one does jobs data quite like the BLS." (01:40)
• Mark Hamrick (on data gaps):
  • "It can't replace government data, but reports from private companies ... do give us glimpses." (01:45)
• Angela Hanks (on private data):
  • "It's certainly cause for concern, but ... what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?" (02:13)
• Chris Farrell (on hidden entrepreneurs):
  • "There were 33 million people engaged in some form of self employment in 2019 ... half the new results." (06:07)
• Kalik Rogers (on impact):
  • "What we do at Good Riddance is create that environment and that space ... that is measurable, that is feasible to implement and practical." (07:33)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:06 — Host explains the immediate effects of the government shutdown on jobs data
• 01:45 — Discussion of private labor market data (Bankrate, ADP, Challenger, Gray & Christmas)
• 02:13 — Concerns about private data’s limitations (Angela Hanks)
• 02:52 — Chicago Fed's new analysis and September labor market estimates
• 03:10 — California refinery fire and implications for gasoline prices
• 04:52 — New research: Hidden entrepreneurs and self-employment data gaps
• 06:07 — The big statistic: 33 million self-employed, not 15 million
• 07:04 — Profile: Kalik Rogers and Good Riddance Consulting
• 07:56 — Discussion of multiple ventures and the evolving definition of entrepreneurship

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Conclusion

This episode underscores how the absence of federal statistical reporting in a shutdown heightens the importance—and limitations—of private data. It also offers a revelatory look into the undercounting of America’s broad entrepreneurial landscape, profiling not just the numbers but the motivations and diverse impacts of modern self-employment.

Listeners come away with a real sense of both the fragility and adaptability of the systems Americans rely on to understand their economy.

Transcript

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[David Brancaccio]

A closed Federal Government Means no September jobs report Today we'll try an instrument landing instead. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. The partial government shutdown now means that two of the top five most important readouts on the economy will not come out today as scheduled. It's the freshest count of the number of people on payrolls and the separate unemployment rate it would have covered. The month just ended September. We assigned my colleague Samantha Fields to use whatever other data is available to piece together. In an approximation, no one does jobs.

[Mark Hamrick]

Data quite like the bls.

[Angela Hanks]

We do have private data to look at, and that is meaningful.

[Mark Hamrick]

Mark Hamrick at Bankrate says it can't replace government data, but reports from private companies, including payroll processing firm ADP and outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, do give us glimpses into the labor market.

[Angela Hanks]

Those data points, I think are very consistent with what we've been seeing otherwise, and that is this is a low.

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Hire, low fire job market.

[Mark Hamrick]

Seeing the latest private data has only made Angela Hanks at the Century foundation more curious about the government data, though.

[Angela Hanks (continued)]

So for example, when I see the ADP is predicting that we're going to have lost 32,000 jobs in September, it's certainly cause for concern, but I think my curiosity is what are we missing from that report and what more do we need to know about the health of the labor market that's not captured here?

[Mark Hamrick]

The Chicago Fed has just come out with a new analysis of the labor market that pulls together nearly a dozen different sources of data in one place. It'll come out twice a month and include federal data, unemployment claims and the jobs report when available. Private data from companies including Indeed and Morning Consult and Google Search activity on unemployment Scott Brave at the Chicago Fed says for September we see a little.

[David Brancaccio]

Bit less job finding going on, we see a little bit more job loss, but on balance, not a not a.

[Mark Hamrick]

Whole lot has changed, including the unemployment rate. The Chicago Fed estimates it's still right around 4.3%. I'm Samantha Fields for Marketplace.

[David Brancaccio]

Firefighters in Southern California here quickly contained a fire following an explosion at a Chevron oil refinery in the city of El Segundo last night. There was a massive fireball, but no injuries. It's not clear how this will affect operations or gas prices. The average price of gas is $4.64 a gallon in California for 47% above the national average. The oil industry highlights gas taxes, but economists say lack of refinery capacity is a large part of that higher retail price.

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[David Brancaccio]

Go to wix.com it was Napoleon Bonaparte who supposedly called England a nation of shopkeepers. It was meant as an insult. On this side of the pond, we like to embrace entrepreneurship. Northwestern University economist Lewis Kane's line is what became the United States of America was born of entrepreneurship. Now there's new research suggesting we have been missing a a lot of entrepreneurs when we've tried to count them up. Marketplace's senior economics contributor Chris Farrell has been reading into this. Hey Chris.

[Chris Farrell]

Good morning David.

[David Brancaccio]

Where'd they find these? I don't know. Hidden entrepreneurs.

[Chris Farrell]

Well David, there's just been this surge in non employer businesses. You know, businesses without payroll employees. And these include independent contractors, freelancers, moonlighters, and other solopreneurs. And while tens of millions of people are engaged in this kind of self employment, they're often missed. They're absent from statistics on labor market trends and business dynamism.

[David Brancaccio]

All right, but not all these, for instance, solopreneurs, as you put it, operate under the radar. I mean, there's data on businesses without employees, of course. Yet I'm getting the impression we could do better, getting a deeper sense of this vital part of the economy.

[Chris Farrell]

There's a recent paper by a handful of scholars, and it's an ongoing effort, David, to create a comprehensive database for the Census bureau on self employment. Their investigation is nuanced. It's complex, but this finding stood out. There were 33 million people engaged in some form of self employment in 2019. Now, in sharp contrast, the bureau of Labor Statistics has calculated a total of 15.3 million self employed in 2019. So half the new results.

[David Brancaccio]

Yeah, I mean, let's repeat that number. The title of the paper is Business owners and the self employed 33 million and counting.

[Chris Farrell]

So perhaps one of these overlooked entrepreneurs is Kalik Rogers. He's founder of Minneapolis based Good Riddance Consulting. And its for profit consulting business mostly works on, you know, convening, gathering different groups together to design strategies to help build community and address common problems.

[Angela Hanks]

I work with city government, county level, private business, people that want to go from good to greater, businesses that have good intentions but don't always have unintended impact.

[Chris Farrell]

So one project Good ridden's worked on led to the Minnesota Housing Agency funding school district programs where students learn the construction trades while building homes for low income residents or Minnesotans who've been experiencing homelessness.

[Angela Hanks]

So what we do at Good Riddance is create that environment and that space to bring those stakeholders collectively together to create a outcome and a solution that is measurable, that is feasible to implement and practical.

[David Brancaccio]

And what you see, it's not just one venture. People tend to have portfolios of ventures.

[Chris Farrell]

Yeah, that's one of the striking numbers that comes out of this study. Self employed, they operate multiple enterprises at the same time. For example, Rogers that we just heard from, he runs a nonprofit catalyst for systems change that works on youth development. So these data sets are really fascinating. And what these economists are developing is a more nuanced picture of the many ways entrepreneurship plays out in America.

[David Brancaccio]

Marketplace's senior economics contributor, Chris Farrell is in St. Paul, Minnesota. Thank you very much.

[Chris Farrell]

Thanks a lot, David.

[David Brancaccio]

Our executive producer is Nancy Fargali. Our digital team includes Antoinette Brock, Emily McCune, and Dylan Miettinen. Our engineers are Rachel Breeze and Tesla Block. It's the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

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[Mark Hamrick]

Apparently.