A conversation with Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr

Summary

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Marketplace Morning Report — A Conversation with Nobel Laureate Joel Mokyr

Date: October 15, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio
Guest: Joel Mokyr, Professor at Northwestern University & Nobel Economics Prize Winner

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Episode Overview

This episode features a concise yet insightful interview with newly-minted Nobel Economics laureate Joel Mokyr. Hosted by David Brancaccio, the discussion focuses on how historical and current technological innovation drives economic growth, the role of institutions, and the societal challenges presented by rapid advancements—particularly artificial intelligence. The conversation also touches on the future of work and how education can adapt to ongoing disruption.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Perspective: The “Hockey Stick” of Economic Growth

• [01:46] Brancaccio introduces Mokyr’s work on the “culture of growth,” referencing how economic development over centuries shows slow, then sharp, improvement driven by innovation.
• Mokyr is asked if this progress can be derailed.

Quote:
"Could we still mess this up?" — David Brancaccio [01:46]

Mokyr’s Response:

• [02:07] Mokyr cautions that it’s not progress itself, but failing institutions that present the biggest risk:
  • “Count on the human race to mess things up? It's institutions that screw up that I think is a huge concern. Because if institutions don't improve while technology improves, you're giving more and more power to people who are likely to abuse and misuse it.” — Joel Mokyr [02:07]

2. Artificial Intelligence: Tool for Progress or Risk?

• [02:25] Brancaccio introduces the topic of AI’s rapid advance and its implications for both growth and prosperity.

• Mokyr is optimistic about AI’s potential:

  • [02:41] “I don't share this sort of apocalyptic view of artificial intelligence, that it's going to replace the human race. … I think AI is another tool for us to do research, and it will make our knowledge much more advanced, much faster than it did before. And I'm all for that. I don't think any of the pessimistic predictions about AI will come true.” — Joel Mokyr [02:41]

• However, he expresses concern for the pace of institutional adaptation:

  • “But I wish I could say the same about institutions and politics.” [02:41]

3. Institutions’ Struggle to Keep Pace

• [03:18] The conversation shifts to the historical lag between technology and institutions:
  • “In the past, we've had major technological changes, but that change was relatively slow, and so institutions had the time to adjust. … But if technological change is very, very quick, then institutions will fall behind, and once that disequilibrium occurs, societies could be in trouble and things could happen that nobody expects.” — Joel Mokyr [03:30]

4. The Future of Work: Education and Adaptability

• [04:04] Brancaccio brings up the uncertainty in planning careers amidst fast-moving tech changes.
• Mokyr acknowledges the inevitability of winners and losers:
  • [04:18] “You always have people who end up on the losing end of the stick, and there's very little you can do. But the alternative is worse. If you have a society which is completely technologically stagnant, in which there's very little progress...”
  • Advocates for flexible, adaptive training: “They should understand that this is happening and give people perhaps the kind of training that is more flexible, that is more adaptable, that is more agile. ... But it's the price you pay for progress, David. There's no other way.” — Joel Mokyr [04:18]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Human Fallibility and Institutions:
  “Count on the human race to mess things up? It's institutions that screw up that I think is a huge concern.”
  — Joel Mokyr [02:07]

• On Artificial Intelligence:
  “I don't share this sort of apocalyptic view of artificial intelligence, that it's going to replace the human race... I think AI is another tool for us to do research, and it will make our knowledge much more advanced, much faster than it did before.”
  — Joel Mokyr [02:41]

• On Societal Lag and Risks:
  “If technological change is very, very quick, then institutions will fall behind, and once that disequilibrium occurs, societies could be in trouble and things could happen that nobody expects.”
  — Joel Mokyr [03:30]

• On the Need for Flexible Training:
  “Society should … give people perhaps the kind of training that is more flexible, that is more adaptable, that is more agile. ... But it's the price you pay for progress, David. There's no other way.”
  — Joel Mokyr [04:18]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:46] The “hockey stick” of economic growth and the risk of institutional failure
• [02:41] Mokyr’s optimistic take on AI and its role in accelerating knowledge
• [03:30] Warning about the pace mismatch between technology and institutions
• [04:18] Advice for future-proofing workforces: Adaptability and societal trade-offs

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Summary Takeaway

Joel Mokyr’s interview provides a wide-angle view of the ongoing tension between rapid technological advances and the slower evolution of social and political institutions. He’s largely optimistic about tools like AI, but stresses that adaptability—both institutional and personal—is vital to ensuring that technological progress translates into broad prosperity without leading to social upheaval.

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Transcript

[A]

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[C]

When new technology changes the world, is it worth all the intense disruption? We consult an authoritative source. I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. We begin our program here with a conversation with a marketplace listener. He spends a lot of time about a half hour north on the train from Chicago. Oh, and he won the Nobel Economics Prize this week. Joel Mokier is a professor at Northwestern University who, along with fellow Nobel winners Philippe Aguillant and Peter Howitt studio studies how technology and culture mix. Mokier himself looks at history to understand how open exchanges between scholars and people who make things inspire each other for enduring economic growth. Professor Mokier, first of all, congratulations.

[D]

Thank you so much.

[C]

Well, I'm glad that the culture of growth that you've long written about is here and is in grain. And when you look at the famed hockey stick graph of the economy over centuries, not much, not much. Then boom it up. It it goes with innovation. It all seems like it's here to stay, this culture of growth. But what's your view? Could we still mess this up?

[D]

Count on the human race to mess things up? It's institutions that screw up that I think is a huge concern. Because if institutions don't improve while technology improves, you're giving more and more power to people who are likely to abuse and misuse it.

[C]

Yeah. And a new challenge emerging, right? The emergence of this revolutionary technology, artificial Intelligence, one expects it to increase economic growth, but you also want the other piece of this, not just growth, but indeed, prosperity, right?

[D]

Yes, indeed. And, you know, I'm actually not worried about. I don't share this sort of apocalyptic view of artificial intelligence, that it's going to replace the human race. And, you know, I think AI is another tool for us to do research, and it will make our knowledge much more advanced, much faster than it did before. And I'm all for that. I don't think any of the pessimistic predictions about AI will come true. But I wish I could say the same about institutions and politics.

[C]

Well, I mean, indeed, that does bring us back to your previous point that institutions and politics would have to evolve along with this technology so that the technology, for instance, doesn't get abused.

[D]

Here is the dilemma. In the past, we've had major technological changes, but that change was relatively slow, and so institutions had the time to adjust. So labor relations changed, the organization of work changed, and it all worked out reasonably well. But if technological change is very, very quick, then institutions will fall behind, and once that disequilibrium occurs, societies could be in trouble and things could happen that nobody expects.

[C]

Yeah. And with all this disruption, it's a little hard to plan one's training and career. You've thought about that, right? We just don't know with technological advances what the big jobs will be.

[D]

You always have people who end up on the losing end of the stick, and there's very little you can do. But the alternative is worse. If you have a society which is completely technologically stagnant, in which there's very little progress, I would say what society should do is, above all, they should understand that this is happening and give people perhaps the kind of training that is more flexible, that is more adaptable, that is more agile. So if you are trained for one task and then it turns out to become obsolete, you can easily switch to another task. But it's the price you pay for progress, David. There's no other way.

[C]

Northwestern's Joel Mochier, who along with Philippe Aguillon and Peter Howat, are winners of this year's Nobel Economics Prize. Professor, again, congratulations.

[D]

Thank you so much, David.

[E]

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[C]

The bankruptcies of a car parts supplier and a subprime car and truck lender are causing angst on Wall Street. These failures are raising questions about private credit markets and big banks exposure to them. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer joins. Which companies?

[F]

The two companies here are First Brands and Tricolor Holdings. First Brands sells things like windshield wiper blades and spark plugs and Tricolor lends to low income subprime car buyers. First Brands borrowed a lot of money to buy smaller parts suppliers. Much of that borrowing, though, didn't appear on its balance sheet, so its creditors didn't know it was in trouble.

[C]

So how might be big banks involved? Did First Brands borrow from them?

[F]

In some cases. Mostly, though, First Brands borrowed from private investors and that borrowing was coordinated through Wall street lenders like Jefferies. First Brands used money it was expecting from invoices as collateral, but it may have pledged those invoices more than once for multiple loans.

[C]

Now key question here, might this snowball the contagion effect?

[F]

The big banks say no. They say they don't have much exposure to this type of borrowing. In an earnings call yester, though, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon did acknowledge the bank had to write off $170 million because of the Tricolor bankruptcy. David he used some colorful language to warn there may be more companies with similar problems. He said when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. So he said there could be some excess in the private credit markets. But other banks like Citigroup say they're not affected by the bankruptcies and they don't see warning signs of major distress in the private credit market.

[C]

All right, we'll keep watching this, right? Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genser. Thank you very much. In Los Angeles, I'm David Brancaccio and this is the Marketplace Morning Report from APM American Public Media.

[G]

I'm Kimberly Adams, host of Make Me Smart, a podcast from Marketplace that makes today make sense. Join me throughout the week as I dig into the biggest stories in tech culture and the economy. Whether it's a vibe check on the job market or the latest on China US Relations, Make Me Smart helps you understand how the headlines actually impact your daily life. Listen to Make Me Smart on your favorite podcast.

[D]

Applause.