A tricky time to be a recent college grad

Summary

Podcast Summary: Marketplace Morning Report

Episode: A tricky time to be a recent college grad
Date: November 26, 2025
Host: David Brancaccio

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Episode Overview

This episode highlights the shifting economic and job landscape for recent college graduates, examines concentrated stock market growth driven by a handful of tech companies, reviews a potential US–Taiwan trade deal centered on semiconductors, and takes a close look at what life is like for older Americans living primarily on Social Security.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Advantaged College Grad? That Edge is Shrinking

• [01:02–03:01]

• Main Insight: New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reveals that the traditional job-search advantage held by recent college graduates over high school grads is diminishing.

• Expert Voices:

  • Baris Kaimak, Cleveland Fed: There’s “still some advantages to being a college graduate, including better pay and job security...” (01:25)
  • Details:
    • In the past, college grads typically found jobs in 2–2.5 months; now it’s about 4.5 months, nearly the same as high school graduates (01:34–01:49).
    • Not just due to the pandemic or AI, but also broad economic shifts and a correction after pandemic-era hiring surges (01:53).
  • David Deming, Harvard: Sometimes “hiring of new college grads is like the first thing to go when a company is having to make tough decisions. They'd rather just not hire this year and do a freeze than lay people off.” (02:07)
  • Ali Bustamante, University of New Orleans: The overflow of college degree holders and fewer openings in traditional sectors (accounting, management, legal, HR) amplify the slowdown (02:17–02:34).
  • Sectors like professional services lost 20,000 jobs just in September (02:34).
  • Many graduates delay joining the workforce, opting for further education—a risky bet given the uncertain job market (02:39–02:53).

  Notable Quote:

  “These days... they're both taking about four and a half months to find that first job.”
  —Marketplace Reporter [01:49]

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2. Stock Market Surge—But Only for a Few

• [03:01–04:40]

• Main Insight: The S&P 500 is up 15% in 2025, with the NASDAQ index even higher. However, growth is “concentrated in a tiny subset of tech companies” linked to artificial intelligence.

• Interview with Susan Schmidt, Exchange Capital Resources:

  • The 19% surge is being driven by a handful of stocks—mostly those in AI, like Nvidia (03:24).
  • “That's what's gone up where it's a lot of volatility. What will happen and what can AI deliver to the economy and the workforce has yet to be seen.” (03:24)
  • The narrow market rise—what investors call low "market breadth"—could be a warning sign. The S&P 500’s gains are dominated by just a few booming firms (04:05).

  Notable Quote:

  “Investors do think about that. So we talk about market breadth. You'd like to have positive stock price action across many stocks, not just a few.”
  —Susan Schmidt [04:05]

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3. Potential U.S.–Taiwan Semiconductor Trade Deal

• [05:57–06:59]

• Main Insight: The U.S. and Taiwan are reportedly negotiating a trade deal that could increase investment and semiconductor manufacturing and training in the U.S.

  • Taiwan—a major supplier of semiconductors—faces higher import tariffs (20%) imposed by the U.S. since the summer.
  • The deal could benefit TSMC’s new Arizona plant, hampered by delays due to a lack of skilled workers despite $6 billion in government grants.
  • The agreement may require Taiwan to help train American workers.

  Notable Quote:

  “That factory has taken longer than expected to finish, in part due to a lack of skilled workers in the U.S.”
  —Henry Epp [06:59]

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4. The Economics of Retirement: Life on Social Security

• [06:59–09:41]

• Main Insight: On Social Security’s 90th anniversary, the show profiles a retiree, Todd Kniebohm, navigating life on a limited income pieced together from Social Security and rental income.

  • Social Security on average replaces 40% of pre-retirement income—most need additional sources.
  • Todd, 67, lives on under $30,000 a year, with about $1,700/month from Social Security making up half his income.
  • His lifestyle is carefully budgeted: “it's not much. There’s no margin for error.” (09:14)
  • He’s cut extras like his XM radio subscription and remains cautious with expenses (09:18-09:23).

  Notable Quotes:

  “Well, it’s half of my income, so it’s very important.”
  —Todd Kniebohm [09:01]

  “Like many retirees who are piecing it together, he’d love to have more breathing room... But for now, he’s getting by.”
  —Chris Farrell [09:29]

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5. Upcoming: Climate Crisis and the Future of Food

• [09:46–10:25]

• Preview: Amy Scott introduces the new season of “How We Survive,” focused on how climate change endangers food staples like chocolate, coffee, corn, and wheat, and the scientific race to develop resilient alternatives.

  Notable Quote:

  “Imagine a future where chocolate and coffee are rare and expensive, where cheap nutritional staples like corn and wheat are threatened. Sounds unpleasant, doesn’t it?”
  —Amy Scott [09:46]

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Memorable Moments & Quotes With Timestamps

• “The terms of the following bargain are clear right Put in the work for a college degree and it'll be easier to get a job. But new research…says that the recent college grads may be losing some of that Advantage.”
  —David Brancaccio [01:02]

• “There are also way more people with college degrees than there used to be, and some industries that would have given them an advantage aren't hiring like before…”
  —Ali Bustamante [02:17]

• “You start to worry about the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500.”
  —David Brancaccio to Susan Schmidt [04:05]

• “It's not much. There's no margin for error.”
  —Todd Kniebohm [09:14]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:02] The diminishing advantage for recent college grads
• [03:01] Stock market performance and tech company dominance
• [05:57] U.S.–Taiwan semiconductor trade deal news
• [06:59] Social Security and retirement realities
• [09:46] Preview: “How We Survive” and the climate-food challenge

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Conclusion

This episode delivers a concise but impactful overview of the shaky ground recent college graduates are navigating, the risks posed by a booming but narrow tech stock surge, the importance of upskilling for the semiconductor industry, and the daily realities of retirees on fixed incomes. It closes by prompting listeners to consider how climate change could drastically alter our most basic foods.

Transcript

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[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

Sweatshirt advantage is eroding I'm David Brancaccio in Los Angeles. Now, the terms of the following bargain are clear right Put in the work for a college degree and it'll be easier to get a job. But new research out this week from the Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland says that the recent college grads may be losing some of that Advantage Marketplace's Carla Javier reports.

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There are still some advantages to being a college graduate, including better pay and job security, says Baris Kaimak at the Cleveland Fed.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

That said, a typical college graduate would take about in the past, maybe two, two and a half months to find a job, when a high school graduate would then take about four, four and a half months to find a job.

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These days, he says, they're both taking.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

About four and a half months to find that first job.

[Blue Apron Advertiser]

Kmax says the pandemic and AI aren't the only causes. Some of it could just be a factor of the changing economic tides, says David Deming at Harvard. And some of it, Deming says, could be a correction from post pandemic hiring.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

So you do often see that hiring of new college grads is like the first thing to go when a company is having to make tough decisions. They'd rather just not hire this year and do a freeze than lay people off.

[Blue Apron Advertiser]

There are also way more people with college degrees than there used to be, and some industries that would have given them an advantage aren't hiring like before, says Ali Bustamante at the University of New Orleans.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

Accounting Management, Legal Services, HR you name it.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

Just this past September, we saw that that sector lost 20,000 jobs.

[Blue Apron Advertiser]

Instead of looking for a job, he says people graduating from college will sometimes pursue more education in hopes that they'll.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

Not only enter into a better labor market, but they'll be entering into a better labor market with these higher credentials.

[Blue Apron Advertiser]

Bustamante says that's a gamble, though, because there's no guarantee what the labor market will look like in the future. I'm Carla. Javier from Marketplace.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

It is the day before Thanksgiving with the S&P 500 index up 15% in 2025. It averages about 10% a year long term. So a very strong year so far. The NASDAQ index is up even more since New Year's, but the strength is concentrated in a tiny subset of tech companies. Susan Schmidt is portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources.

[Susan Schmidt]

It is a really strong showing when you think 19%, but you're right, it is just a few companies driving that. So everything on that AI theme has really been pushing the market this year. That's what's gone up where it's a lot of volatility. What will happen and what can AI deliver to the economy and the workforce has yet to be seen. Investors are certainly eager to find out. And we see that volatility reflected in the stock market.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

You know, speaking of volatility, Susan, does it make you nervous when it's like seven stocks, you know, includes Nvidia, the AI chip maker and others driving all of this? You start to worry about the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500.

[Susan Schmidt]

Investors do think about that. So we talk about market breadth. You'd like to have positive stock price action across many stocks, not just a few. We've seen this concentration in those big tech names. And those big tech names dominate the action of that S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ. So there is cause for concern. It's worth keeping an eye on to see what happens because one topic, that AI related theme, can impact lots of the market activity.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

Susan Schmidt, senior portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, thanks so much.

[Susan Schmidt]

Thank you.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

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[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

A trade deal between the US and Taiwan could be on the way, according to a reporting by the news agency Reuters today. The potential agreement could commit Taiwan to invest in the US and train more American workers to build semiconductors marketplaces. Henry Epp has more.

[Henry Epp]

Taiwan is a major manufacturer of semiconductors, vital to all kinds of industries, but imports of those chips to the US Are more expensive right now after the Trump administration imposed a 20% tariff on the country over the summer. The White House has not confirmed the latest trade talks, but Reuters reports that a deal could include a commitment by Taiwan to train workers to build semiconductors in the US and that could benefit tsmc, the Taiwanese chipmaking giant. It's building a massive semiconductor plant in Arizona, boosted by a $6 billion grant under the Biden administration. But according to Reuters, that factory has taken longer than expected to finish, in part due to a lack of skilled workers in the U.S. i'm Henry Epp for Marketplace.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

Social Security was signed into law 90 years ago and is the cornerstone of economic security for older Americans, right? Yet Social Security replaces only a portion of pre retirement income. The average is about 40% of what people were earning. So retirees look for other income. This week here, Marketplace's senior economics contributor Chris Farrell is hearing from people living on Social Security today to Minnesota with the economics of being 67 years old.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

67 year old Todd Kniebohm has some time on his hands these days, so he's been taking electric guitar lessons in his apartment outside the Twin Cities. He plays a few riffs while his cat Jasper looks on.

[Todd Kniebohm]

It's completely fun, you know, just to get some little riff that pleases you and then to play it over and over.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

Todd has had time to practice since he's been recovering from a hip replacement. But now that he's better, he's job.

[Todd Kniebohm]

Hunting right now, about to start looking for work. So we'll hope somebody employs me.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

67 years old like many retirees, Todd had an eclectic career. He worked for some 15 years in restaurants as a chef and more then.

[Todd Kniebohm]

Other forms of restaurant worker. You know, steward and chief bottle washer and a bartender.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

While working in restaurants, he went to college and eventually got a master's degree in social work. He had a variety of in that.

[Todd Kniebohm]

Industry, nonprofits and for profits that help people with mental illness.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

These days, Todd cobbles together his retirement income. First, he rents out a house in Duluth, Minnesota, on Lake Superior where he used to live.

[Todd Kniebohm]

It's a pretty big place, a two bedroom house that overlooks the lake. It's been a vehicle for me living somewhere else.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

That somewhere else is here. A small apartment he rents in Van Ness Heights, a Twin City suburb. He earns enough off his Duluth home to cover the rent on his apartment. But key to paying the rest of Todd's bills is his Social Security check of nearly $1,700 a month.

[Todd Kniebohm]

Well, it's half of my income, so it's very important.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

All cobbled together. He lives off of less than $30,000 a year. That's less than half of what he made before retirement.

[Todd Kniebohm]

So it's not much. There's no margin for error.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

He's careful with his budget. He recently eliminated his XM radio subscription.

[Todd Kniebohm]

Certain things get more marginal when you're running closer to the level of all your necessities.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

Like many retirees who are piecing it together, he'd love to have more breathing room in his budget. But for now, he's getting by. In Vadnais Heights, Minnesota. I'm Chris Farrell for Marketplace.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

We're the Morning Report from apm, American Public Media.

[Amy Scott]

Imagine a future where chocolate and coffee are rare and expensive, where cheap nutritional staples like corn and wheat are threatened. Sounds unpleasant, doesn't it? Well, we could be heading there if we don't recognize that the climate crisis is also a food crisis.

[Marketplace Reporter / Interviewer]

I've seen yields drop because of drought.

[Marketplace Host / Reporter]

And believe me, boy, have I seen them drop. We have had dry spells that have lasted years.

[Amy Scott]

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